[Truth To Power]

1st, his possible mechanisms [for the sun's magnetic field] to heat or cool the earth don't include the sun's magnetic field.

You asked me to explain how the sun's magnetic field affects clouds. Invoking the sun's magnetic field would not have been responsive. Although you and the other AGW screamers routinely resort to such disingenuous tactics, it would not occur to me to do so because I am too honest.

They are all something else. While those things may be effected by magnetic fields on the sun, the field itself apparently has no effect. So, sloppy word usage.

No, just honesty -- something you evidently have no way to even recognize when you see it.

2nd, I looked at his linked evidence. I don't know how accurate or reliable it is.

It's the best satellite temperature record of the lower troposphere.

However, even using it as good he has distorted it a lot.

Of course that is a bald falsehood.

Mainly, because he chose the year 2016 and not the year 2015.

?? Because that was the year the world stopped warming and started cooling, the year the cooling trend started, the year the cooling is since.

. . . So, from the graph under the world map, I can truthfully say that the world has been warmer and often a lot warmer in every year since 2015.

How could that be relevant to whether the most recent trend is cooling?

. . . Another thing is that the graph has data points for each month. They must be averaged over the whole world. So, in Jan., 2016 it was very hot. This means that the heat in the summer of the southern hemisphere overwhelmed the cold of the winter of the northern hemisphere. In fact that month was a shocking 0.70 deg. C above the average temp of from 1991 to 2020. Compared to Apr. 2015 when the temp was about 0.033 deg. C less than that average temp. This is swing of 0.733 deg. C. Another swing was from Jan. 2016 to Apr., 2016, when the temp fell from 0.7 down to 0.2 deg. C, a drop of 0.5 deg. C in 4 months.

The sad thing is, you actually imagine all that is relevant.

In other words, this data obscures the trends

Garbage. There is also a smoothed version of the same data that shows the same trend:

https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content ... 022_v6.jpg

by keeping the wild temp swings as the seasons change (remember averaging the whole world, which might average out the swings, but doesn't).

You're not paying attention. UAH data ARE for the whole world. That is the point of using satellite rather than surface temperature data.

Another point is that there have been 3 humps after Apr. 2015. The 1st started at the low of Apr., 2015 to the peak of Jan 2016, & down to the low point of Sept. 2018; and then a second hump from the low in Sept. 2018 until the next low in Apr. 2021; and then a 3rd from Apr., 2021 to the next low of now (which could go lower still). Note that, the duration of each hump has changed each time. So, because thee were 3 humps in the time frame he chose to talk about, he is wrong to assert that the temp has been *cooling or dropping* since 2016. He implied with those words that to temp has gone down mostly consistently over that time frame, and it has gone up and down 2 or 3 times.

No one would dishonestly pretend to think that "cooling since 2016" meant there had been no interval of warming in six years. Would they??

My final point on this is that his source (which may be wrong) shows a spike in Jan 2016, and he chose to start from there and not from Apr. 2015 or Apr. 2016, when it was much cooler.

Because the point was the most recent or current trend, not the trend from 2015 to 2016. Hello?

[Steve_American]

... snip ...

There is also a smoothed version of the same data that shows the same trend:

https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content ... 022_v6.jpg

... snip ...

No one would [ delete this word=> dishonestly] pretend to think that "cooling since 2016" meant there had been no interval of warming in six years. Would they??

OK, I looked at his smoothed (and so IMO) better data.

I would describe the temps since 2016 as falling for 2.2 years and then climbing for the next 1.7 years back to the 2016 temp and then falling for the next 1.2 yeas to the same temp as the last low point, and finally starting back slowly up for the last 1 year.
. . . So, on the average the temp has been going up and down since 2016 while being basically flat on average.
. . . What we see is 2 humps of the same size over those years if we include the last half of 2015. see below.

Yes, I would not start for the peak of a very sharp up swing.

Truth to Power, I must say that this last graph shows us that there is something other than just CO2 & other GHG that is driving the earths temps. Because CO2 would not create that much variation, that is the graph should be smoother. So, you may be on to something. I'd want to compare the low points to know large volcanic eruptions that did cool the world. I can't off the top of my head think of similar thing that could have caused the sharp peaks that or on the graph in 1988, 1998, 2010, and 2016 (there are several smaller peaks).

However, just because there is another driver doesn't prove that GHG & CO2 are not also drivers.

Also, over the whole of this last graph the trend is up. And the part since 2010 has been hotter than before that. To me this can mean that if there is a time lag between the driving force and the resulting temps, then those last many warm years are still heating things. [This like in the US the temps keep going up from June through the end of Aug., even though the peak of the length of the days in on June 20th. Strangely to me, here in Thailand the "summer is in Mar., Arp., & May, then to cooler "rainy season" starts in June. Now (7/31) the nights are getting almost cold.]
. . . We are seeing more ice melting on Greenland this year so far (through July) than any other year through July. This indicates that more heat is reaching the ice, this year than in any other year. This is significant.

.

[Pants-of-dog]

@Truth To Power deliberately chooses 2016 since that has been the absolute hottest year on record, and this allows him to pretend that the Earth has been cooling since then simply because we are not consistently breaking new heat records every year.

Also:

The last eight years have been the hottest on record
By Josh Davis
First published 14 January 2022

The last eight years have been the hottest years ever recorded, according to NASA, with 2021 coming in at sixth place.

The latest figures from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that global temperatures are 1.1°C above preindustrial levels, and creeping ever closer to the 1.5°C limit set by politicians in Glasgow last year.

The figures are in for how much the planet warmed during 2021.

The latest analysis from NASA found that the past 12 months were the sixth hottest year on record, with the planet warming by 1.1°C above the average from the start of the industrial revolution.

This means that the last eight years have been the warmest on record, continuing the long-term trend of a rapidly heating planet.

NASA's Administrator Bill Nelson, says, 'Science leaves no room for doubt: Climate change is the existential threat of our time.

'Eight of the top 10 warmest years on our planet occurred in the last decade, an indisputable fact that underscores the need for bold action to safeguard the future of our country - and all of humanity.'

The stats from NASA and the NOAA come just days after the European Earth monitoring agency Copernicus released their own. This analysis also showed that the last seven years were recorded history's hottest, but with 2021 coming in at fifth rather than sixth.

So, while the average temperature each year may not have hit as high as 2016, every year since then has been hotter than it was before 2016. This is only cooling in a very pedantic sense.

[Truth To Power]

Truth to Power, I must say that this last graph shows us that there is something other than just CO2 & other GHG that is driving the earths temps. Because CO2 would not create that much variation, that is the graph should be smoother. So, you may be on to something. I'd want to compare the low points to know large volcanic eruptions that did cool the world. I can't off the top of my head think of similar thing that could have caused the sharp peaks that or on the graph in 1988, 1998, 2010, and 2016 (there are several smaller peaks).

It is obvious from the smoothed graph that there is a chaotic (non-periodic) cycle in temperatures every few years throughout the observation period. Probably it reflects the El Nino - La Nina oscillations.

However, just because there is another driver doesn't prove that GHG & CO2 are not also drivers.

I have never denied that CO2 is a GHG.

Also, over the whole of this last graph the trend is up. And the part since 2010 has been hotter than before that. To me this can mean that if there is a time lag between the driving force and the resulting temps, then those last many warm years are still heating things. [This like in the US the temps keep going up from June through the end of Aug., even though the peak of the length of the days in on June 20th. Strangely to me, here in Thailand the "summer is in Mar., Arp., & May, then to cooler "rainy season" starts in June. Now (7/31) the nights are getting almost cold.]
. . . We are seeing more ice melting on Greenland this year so far (through July) than any other year through July. This indicates that more heat is reaching the ice, this year than in any other year. This is significant.

The earth warmed substantially in the 20th C because the sun was extremely active. The earth is now consequently warmer than it has been for several centuries. How do the data you refer to above imply that the warming could not have been caused by the sun, and must have been caused by CO2?

[Truth To Power]

@Truth To Power deliberately chooses 2016 since that has been the absolute hottest year on record, and this allows him to pretend that the Earth has been cooling since then simply because we are not consistently breaking new heat records every year.

It's not a pretense. The data show it has cooled. It is therefore misleading and disingenuous to claim the earth IS warming, let alone rapidly.

Also:

The last eight years have been the hottest on record
By Josh Davis
First published 14 January 2022

The last eight years have been the hottest years ever recorded, according to NASA, with 2021 coming in at sixth place.

The latest figures from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that global temperatures are 1.1°C above preindustrial levels, and creeping ever closer to the 1.5°C limit set by politicians in Glasgow last year.

The figures are in for how much the planet warmed during 2021.

The latest analysis from NASA found that the past 12 months were the sixth hottest year on record, with the planet warming by 1.1°C above the average from the start of the industrial revolution.

This means that the last eight years have been the warmest on record, continuing the long-term trend of a rapidly heating planet.

NASA's Administrator Bill Nelson, says, 'Science leaves no room for doubt: Climate change is the existential threat of our time.

'Eight of the top 10 warmest years on our planet occurred in the last decade, an indisputable fact that underscores the need for bold action to safeguard the future of our country - and all of humanity.'

The stats from NASA and the NOAA come just days after the European Earth monitoring agency Copernicus released their own. This analysis also showed that the last seven years were recorded history's hottest, but with 2021 coming in at fifth rather than sixth.

Nothing there implies that the warming could not have been caused by high solar activity, or could only have been caused by CO2. You obviously have not only not responded to -- let alone refuted -- any of my statements of the scientific case for climate realism, you have not even understood them.

So, while the average temperature each year may not have hit as high as 2016, every year since then has been hotter than it was before 2016. This is only cooling in a very pedantic sense.

It is cooling in the real sense.

[Pants-of-dog]

It's not a pretense. The data show it has cooled. It is therefore misleading and disingenuous to claim the earth IS warming, let alone rapidly.

No.

The Earth is warming. And this is true even if 2016 was the hottest year on record, since it has not cooled significantly since then.

And the last decade is hotter than the one before. In fact, the vast majority of decades have been hotter than the previous one for the last 150 years or so.

This is a trend.

And it exists even if you cherry pick a single year and then use that to support a misleading claim.

Nothing there implies that the warming could not have been caused by high solar activity, or could only have been caused by CO2. You obviously have not only not responded to -- let alone refuted -- any of my statements of the scientific case for climate realism, you have not even understood them.

It is cooling in the real sense.

No, it is not cooling in anything except a very pedantic sense that I already explained.

The last eight years have been the hottest on record. That means the trend right now is a roughly stable and ongoing plateau. Not cooling in any significant sense.

There is no cooling trend.

[Truth To Power]

No.

Yes.

The Earth is warming.

Because it is summer in the Northern Hemisphere, and the sun has been unexpectedly active. On the decadal scale, it has been cooling.

And this is true even if 2016 was the hottest year on record, since it has not cooled significantly since then.

Yes it has, as I already proved.

And the last decade is hotter than the one before. In fact, the vast majority of decades have been hotter than the previous one for the last 150 years or so.

That only shows the earth was warming, which I have not disputed.

This is a trend.

GARBAGE. It is a cycle.

And it exists even if you cherry pick a single year and then use that to support a misleading claim.

I didn't cherry pick anything, and my statement was correct. I simply looked at the data and noted that the most recent multi-year trend is down, not up.

No, it is not cooling in anything except a very pedantic sense that I already explained.

Objective physical reality is not a "pedantic sense."

The last eight years have been the hottest on record.

Records that only record the natural warming since an unusually cold period. That means no more than observing that July was the hottest month on record this year.

That means the trend right now is a roughly stable and ongoing plateau. Not cooling in any significant sense.

It has been cooling roughly as fast as it warmed in the 20th C.

There is no cooling trend.

I already proved that claim is false.

[Pants-of-dog]

Yes.

Because it is summer in the Northern Hemisphere, and the sun has been unexpectedly active. On the decadal scale, it has been cooling.

Not according to your own evidence.

Or the evidence I just posted.

Yes it has, as I already proved.

That only shows the earth was warming, which I have not disputed.

GARBAGE. It is a cycle.

I didn't cherry pick anything, and my statement was correct. I simply looked at the data and noted that the most recent multi-year trend is down, not up.

Objective physical reality is not a "pedantic sense."

Records that only record the natural warming since an unusually cold period. That means no more than observing that July was the hottest month on record this year.

It has been cooling roughly as fast as it warmed in the 20th C.

I already proved that claim is false.

No.

Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08° Celsius) per decade since 1880, but the rate of warming since 1981 is more than twice that: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade.
2021 was the sixth-warmest year on record based on NOAA’s temperature data.
Averaged across land and ocean, the 2021 surface temperature was 1.51 °F (0.84 °Celsius) warmer than the twentieth-century average of 57.0 °F (13.9 °C) and 1.87 ˚F (1.04 ˚C) warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900).
The nine years from 2013 through 2021 rank among the 10 warmest years on record.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/u ... emperature

[Steve_American]

I1] t is obvious from the smoothed graph that there is a chaotic (non-periodic) cycle in temperatures every few years throughout the observation period. Probably it reflects the El Nino - La Nina oscillations.

2] Steve_Americanx had written: "However, just because there is another driver doesn't prove that GHG & CO2 are not also drivers."

TtP's reply was:
I have never denied that CO2 is a GHG.

3] The earth warmed substantially in the 20th C because the sun was extremely active. The earth is now consequently warmer than it has been for several centuries. How do the data you refer to above imply that the warming could not have been caused by the sun, and must have been caused by CO2?

1] TtP, you are not much good at accepting a magnanimous concession, are you?

Just because the air is cooling doesn't necessarily mean that the ocean is cooling too.

2] I hadn't accused you of denying the CO2 was a GHG. I accused you of denying that CO2 & other GHGs are the main drivers, actually you keep saying they have almost no effect. So, your reply is not on point and useless.
. . . I had conceded that the sun may also be a driver, and you don't say thanks, you just make an assertion about something else.

3] You keep asserting that the sun is to a huge extent the main driver of the air temps and maybe ocean temps. You have never proven this. You have not explained the mechanism. You really have no basis to make a positive assertion that it is the case. You should tone down the certainty of your assertion of this.

.