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By Tovarish Spetsnaz
#197493
On the other hand, in Stalin´s Russia there was no clear worsening
-of living standards, however, the majority of authors point to a period
-of famine


There was a worsening of living standrads...after all the Civil War had just ended and the 1922 Volga famine had just ended. That suerly would have an impact on future generations...which would reach reporduction age in the 1930s...and the effect of that is difficult to predict.

Second...I would like to see some data about this 17 million missing people...becasue they may not be accurate in themselves...just as Conquest's study of the Ukrainian census was wrong.

Third...there is the possibility of errors in the censuses. Soviet censuses were not conducted in the same standards as in other countries...and the probability of errors were much larger. Also beggining in 1937...USSR tried to consolidate different ethnicities togather...so instead of having many thousand of different ethnicities...many were grouped togather. This may have effected the final outcome.

I looked at the 1939 census..and that said the population was 164.098.730 people. I was unable to find exact data on the 1926 census...but I read it was 147 million people. Therefore, in that 13 year period, the population increased by 17 million people...Maybe this is a coincidnence...but the number is 17.

Now...I am not sure what the rate of population increase was in the USSR at the time. But...for arguments sake...lets say 2% a year (this based that Ukraine had 2.6%...so the rest of the USSR would be somewhat lower). Over 13 years...it comes out to about 17 million after all (I didn't actually do the math..but it looks about right)! This unless the increase of population was much higher than 2%...than we would get 17 million missing....but how much higher was it??? And did it remain constant...or did the rate decrease as Soviet census itself says the rate decreased???

I am sorry...but in my...admititly limited 10 minute research...the population of the USSR seems to have increased at about 2% a year from 1926 to 1939 to an increase of 17 million people.

Contrast this with Russia today which has a NEGATIVE population growth...and a 10 million population increase in the past 10 years.


But I am prepared to admit my data is wrong if you have better data on those censues and specifically the rate of increase!!

The diference between expected increase
-in population and observed increase points to a increase in overall
-mortality, which is, btw, very rare in modern societies in peacetime.


I don't see this to be rare at all. Looking at Ukraine and Russia...they have this pattern without experiencing war, famine or genocide.

-I will try to ask Getty himself on that point. Maybe I´m look if he
-answers me.


I think you should. That would be interesting...

-A question that I´ve already did to myself, but looking at the data,
-I found no evidence of that. Population growth in the USA was 1,5%
-an year from 1920 to 1928 and the same 1,5% from 1928 to 1938.
-No evidence of a sudden change in demographic patterns here.


I would have to dissagree. I did a little research myself!! I saw that between 1920 to 1928 there was an AVERAGE growth rate of 1.6% (1.58 to be exact). In 1920, this rate was near 2%. Between 1929 to 1938, the growth rate was only 0.744% on average...a decrease of some .9%!!

1929 population was 120.509.000...1938 population was 129.824.939...so population increased by about 9.8 million people...BUT should have increased if with the 1.6% increase of pre-1929 by about 15+ million people!!! There are 5 million MISSING people from the US census!! Excess deaths??

Seems we are stuck once more here...and we have very accurate data for the US census...year by year with increase rates for every year...and THERE IS a decrease in this rate...thus leading us to a missing 5 million people. But clearly...these 5 million people simply never existed...they were not killed by the US government.

This is the problem with censues...they DON'T WORK!!!

Also with the US there is the factor of emigration to take into account...but they add to population rather than decrease it (except in a couple of years in the 30s...people leaving the US were more than people coming into US...but generally it was the other way around). So perhaps that 15 million may actually be a higher number if no additional influx happened!!

Hmm...famine and gencide in the US in the 1930s...I think I'm going to write a book on that!!! LOL

-I´m thinking about non biased polls


I know..but the study of 40% of the reports is in itself a biased report...becasue the other 60% are competely unkown...
By Gothmog
#197495
More on Getty, with some important points on excess deaths



http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2000/03/getty.htm




by J. Arch Getty


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE PASSING OF AN ILLUSION: The Idea of Communism in the Twentieth Century
by François Furet.
Univ of Chigaco,
596 pages,
35.00.

THE BLACK BOOK OF COMMUNISM: Crimes, Terror, Repression

by Stéphane Courtois, Nicolas Werth, Jean-Louis Panné, Andrzej Paczkowski, Karel Bartosek, and Jean-Louis Margolin.
Harvard,
858 pages,
$37.50.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALONG with self-congratulation and relief, the fall of the Soviet Union has stimulated an abundance of postmortems on communism and its place in the twentieth century. Though communism in its classic form may be extinct, we sometimes seem to be fighting it almost as fiercely today as we did when it threatened us.

Near the end of his life François Furet (1927-1997), one of the best historians of the French Revolution, turned his formidable intellect to the study of communism. In The Passing of an Illusion: The Idea of Communism in the Twentieth Century, his last book, Furet presents the Soviet experience as an illusion -- one that retained a fascination and an allegiance in the West far beyond the time when its essence should have been clear. Furet, like many other French intellectuals embued with a leftist activism and an ideological passion dating from the French revolutions of 1789, 1848, and 1871, turned for a time to communism. He was a member of the French Communist Party from 1949 to 1956. Although his text is not in the first person, it provides an implicit chronicle of his own illusion, and disillusion.


Furet is particularly eloquent about what he considers to be communism's ill-deserved image as fascism's opposite; he believes that the two were identical in every significant way. Both were born of the violence of the First World War, when millions of men, betrayed by their leaders, were embittered by the sacrifice forced upon them and angry at the war's pointlessness. Trench warfare brought the masses to the fore of European history, in a setting of violence, extremist passion, and anger. It was soldiers, Furet believed, who overthrew the Russian czar, eased Lenin's takeover, and made up the angry membership of fascist parties elsewhere. Fascism and communism were both mass movements (which Furet tends to dislike) that became one-man dictatorships.

Yet Furet may draw some criticism when he closely links Communist and fascist regimes. There is sharp debate about this today among historians, and many of them are uncomfortable putting communism and fascism into the same category. Clearly, both Hitler's and Stalin's regimes sought to exercise total control over their populations and deprive people of the possibility to organize or even exist outside the officially prescribed forms and institutions. Recent research shows, however, that much as they may have wanted to, the Stalinists were never able to build the coldly efficient machine of Orwell's 1984; much of the Stalinist system worked as the Russian government had worked in 1884. Clumsy implementation of vague plans wreaked havoc with attempts to pursue policies. Moscow had little information about what was really happening in the far-flung provinces, where regional satraps used distance and poor communications to insulate themselves from Moscow's control and build their own power. There was not even a telephone line to the Soviet Far East until the eve of World War II. Research in newly available Soviet archives has also documented widespread Stalin-era dissent, passive and active resistance, strikes, and even full-scale peasant revolts of a kind and scale that Hitler never faced.

What's more, Nazi Germany and the USSR had radically different social and economic systems. Hitler, despite his populist rhetoric, largely preserved and defended private property, the market economy, and existing elites. Stalin utterly destroyed capitalism and physically annihilated the social and economic elites. Although both regimes used terror, they used it differently, against different targets. Hitler's terror was designed to be finite and to exterminate particular ethnic groups (Jews and Gypsies, for example). Stalin's terror mainly sought to turn social groups such as peasants and businessmen into a slave labor force that would be a permanent part of the Soviet economy. During the Cold War, when the USSR supplanted Nazi Germany as the enemy of the West, journalists and political scientists began to associate the two regimes. Furet could dig up only a few observers who tried to make an analogy between the two dictatorships before 1945.

LESS concerned with the subtleties of illusion, Stéphane Courtois and some of his co-authors are eager to associate Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia in a different way. The Black Book of Communism, an 800-page collection of essays about the human toll exacted by Communist regimes in the twentieth century, reaches a much simpler conclusion: the Germans and the Russians were merely terrible criminals who were members of a huge Communist gang. Examining the records of repression in the USSR, Eastern Europe, China, North Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Latin America, Africa, and Afghanistan, Courtois et al. arrive at a figure of 100 million deaths attributable to Communist regimes, as compared with 25 million attributable to the Nazis. In his essay Courtois makes the point that the Soviet terror was greater than the Nazis' and also, because it was systematic and genocidal, violated the Nuremberg Laws and the "unwritten code of the natural laws of humanity." The actions of Communist Parties thus qualify communism, like the Nazi Party, as a "criminal organization."

No sane person can rise to the defense of mass terror. The moral point has been clear for decades, although some may be troubled that Courtois relates the problem to ignoring the ideals of "Judeo-Christian civilization," which has no monopoly on morality. To frame our understanding of these events as numerical counts attributable to particular ideologies is even more problematic.
Courtois writes that he is not trying to present a "macabre comparative system for crunching numbers, some kind of grand total that doubles the horror." Yet there is a lot of arithmetic in his presentation, and one gets the impression that he is including every possible death just to run up the score. That impression troubled his distinguished co-authors; Nicolas Werth and Jean-Louis Margolin sparked a scandal in Paris when they publicly disassociated themselves from Courtois's opinions about the scale of Communist terror, asserting that his introduction was more a diatribe than a balanced scholarly treatment. They felt that he was obsessed with attributing a body count of 100 million to communism, and like several other scholars, they rejected his equation of Soviet repression with Nazi genocide. Werth, a well-regarded French specialist on the Soviet Union whose sections in the Black Book on the Soviet Communists are sober and damning, told Le Monde, "Death camps did not exist in the Soviet Union."

Stalin's camps were different from Hitler's. Tens of thousands of prisoners were released every year upon completion of their sentences. We now know that before World War II more inmates escaped annually from the Soviet camps than died there. Research shows that Stalin's camps and deportations, unlike their Nazi extermination counterparts, were planned components of the Soviet economy, designed to provide a stable slave-labor supply and to populate forbidding territories forcibly with involuntary settlers. Rations and medical care were substandard, but were often not dramatically better elsewhere in Stalin's Soviet Union and were not designed to hasten the inmates' deaths, although they certainly did so. Similarly, the overwhelming weight of opinion among scholars working in the new archives (including Courtois's co-editor Werth) is that the terrible famine of the 1930s was the result of Stalinist bungling and rigidity rather than some genocidal plan.

Are deaths from a famine caused by the stupidity and incompetence of the regime (such deaths account for more than half of Courtois's 100 million) to be equated with the deliberate gassing of Jews? Courtois's arithmetic is too simple. A huge number of the fatalities attributed here to Communist regimes fall into a kind of catchall category called "excess deaths": premature demises, over and above the expected mortality rate of the population, that resulted directly or indirectly from government policy. Those executed, exiled to Siberia, or forced into gulag camps where nutrition and living conditions were poor could fall into this category. But so could many others, and "excess deaths" are not the same as intentional deaths.

Such arithmetical history sacrifices historical accuracy by lumping different events into the same category. Jerry Hough, of Duke University, has suggested just how ambiguous such calculations can be. Using the dramatically rising death rates in Russia in the 1990s, and with perhaps a bit of tongue in cheek, Hough calculated that 1.5 million "extra deaths" occurred in Russia in just the first four years of Yeltsin's tenure -- a total that, Hough points out, is "considerably larger than the number Stalin killed in the Great Purge" of the 1930s. The real problem with the books under review is a facile categorization in order to fix blame or make political points. It would be more polemical than accurate to equate famine deaths, victims of police terror, and deaths in Nazi gas chambers with the plight of Russians unable to buy food and health care today. One could place many of the century's deaths in any of several categories, according to the political point one wanted to make. Should we blame premature deaths in Russia today on the legacy of communism or on the failed policies of reformers? For how many deaths under Stalin should we blame communism? Stalin's personal paranoia? Backwardness or ignorance? We might do better to try to understand these grisly statistics in their contexts, rather than positing large polemical categories and then filling them up with bodies. Good history is about balanced interpretation and is usually more complicated than categorization or blame.

The Black Book attributes all these deaths to an ideology: Marxist-Leninist communism. Courtois's introduction and Martin Malia's foreword posit a single world Communist movement in the twentieth century within a "Leninist matrix" with a single "genetic code." Thus ideologies can be blamed for deaths, and all the terror in this case belongs to just one.

WAS there a single "communism" in this century? After Marx's First International association of Communists came three more Internationals. Each of them bitterly denounced its predecessors as the bearers of a false ideology. Regimes calling themselves Communist installed a bewildering variety of economic and social systems and constantly attacked one another for all kinds of ideological deviations; one party's Marxist-Leninist faith was another's vile heresy. They rarely acted as allies and frequently fought one another on the battlefield. The USSR and China fought steadily along the Amur River. Communist Vietnam invaded Communist Kampuchea, and then Communist China attacked Communist Vietnam.

Historically speaking, what did Stalin's disciplined, urban-based industrializing system have in common with Mao Zedong's reliance on the rural peasantry and the wild Cultural Revolution? Did the fanatical Mao and the pragmatic Deng Xiaoping share a genetic code? Pol Pot, who massacred his countrymen in Cambodia, had more in common with the anti-Communist Idi Amin than with the Communist Fidel Castro. The impulses and historical conditions giving rise to these regimes in various countries were vastly different. Even their terrors were dissimilar: Chinese and Vietnamese repression stressed re-education; the Khmer Rouge massacred categories of people; Stalin permanently transplanted real and imagined enemies. The only thing linking the Communist regimes was that each constantly attested that it was Marxist-Leninist -- and that other Communist regimes were not. After all, Ethiopian colonels and Yemeni bandits used to claim that they were Leninists too, and nothing was easier than calling one's country a "people's republic."

IF we want to categorize the unprecedented violence and terror of the past century, we could just as well use templates that have less to do with left-wing or right-wing isms. Backward countries driven to modernize quickly were (and are) often scenes of repression and sickening mass killing, whether they were self-proclaimed Communists or not. In addition to modernization, one could use religion, nationalism, economic competition, or the technology of war to group the century's deaths. If we want to play this scorecard game with isms, we could post a huge number of deaths to the account of capitalist and nationalist competition, starting with imperialism and two world wars and ending with excess deaths in Yeltsin's democratic Russia.

The Passing of an Illusion can be seen as a testament to the Western intellectual view of communism, and it might seem unfair to criticize Furet for the weakness of his coverage of Russian history. But in presenting the Western view Furet feels obliged to provide a good bit of that history. In the process he rejects several decades of historical research on the Soviet Union -- as does Courtois -- and insists on views that were current decades ago. These days the weight of historical and archival evidence is against both authors: they depict the 1917 October Revolution as a mere coup rather than the social upheaval that historians study today. To them the famine of 1932-1933 was simply a planned Ukrainian genocide, although today most see it as a policy blunder that affected millions belonging to other nationalities. Yes, at the end of World War II, Stalin incarcerated returning Soviet prisoners of war, but now we know that most of them were released quickly after routine processing in temporary camps.

Furet writes that the "beginning of the end" for the Soviet regime was Nikita Khrushchev's anti-Stalin secret speech of 1956, which "overturned the universal status of the Communist idea." For Furet and other intellectuals, this was truly a crack in the ideological façade of the Soviet Union (Furet himself broke with communism that year), and the rest of Soviet history resolves itself into steady decomposition. Ideas matter intensely for Furet, and from the limited point of view of ideology he is right. The break with Stalinism did in fact disorient and begin to disillusion Western Communist intellectuals. French former Communists often date their own defection and the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union together, and argue about who left the Party at the most correct time, thus confounding Soviet history with their own. Furet's view ignores the fact that the USSR existed for another thirty-five years after 1956 -- more years than Stalin ruled. Economically and technologically these were actually among the best years for the long-suffering Soviet people.

Similarly, Furet's book in particular proposes an old-fashioned kind of personalized history that encompasses not only the play of ideas but also the deeds of famous people. Absent here is any real consideration of society or economics or the roles of masses of people, except as categories manipulated by leading personalities. Perhaps because of his lack of expertise in modern history, Furet has written a kind of nineteenth-century version of great men making history. I doubt that many modern historians would agree that Lenin, Hitler, and Mussolini "took power by breaking weak regimes with the superior force of their wills." Surely more than that was involved.

Yes, French intellectuals were disappointed by the Soviet Union. But many others were not, and not everyone is concerned solely with ideas, ideologies, and great men. It is instructive to remember that only nine months before Yeltsin dissolved the USSR, an overwhelming majority of Soviet voters, in a referendum, were in favor of maintaining the union. For a surprising number of people today in the former Soviet Union, the terror does not wholly negate achievements such as universal literacy, one of the best technological-education systems in the world, the first man in space, free education and health care, and security in old age. Maybe these social gains, too, were an illusion, but we risk another kind of illusion by not including the few but important pluses with the mountains of minuses. The West need not be generous in its victory over communism, but we might be more balanced in our obituaries.

FURET sees communism as a kind of flash in the pan of modern history. When the illusion passed, he writes, it left virtually no traces and no enduring legacy. This is preposterous. Admittedly, besides its moral failure, communism failed in its crusade to convert the whole world and in the end succeeded in lastingly converting no significant part of it. But communism's impact was and still is enormous. In addition to provoking significant changes in capitalist economies, such as vastly increased military spending and the growth of a military-industrial complex, the USSR's existence changed Western social development in fundamental ways.

Labor reform in the West in the past century came about under the threat of a radicalized international labor movement protected and supported by the USSR. President Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal was in part meant to steal the thunder of radicals who looked to Moscow and therefore could not be ignored. Social goals that are commonplace today, including women's rights and racial integration, were planks of the Communist Party platform long before mainstream American parties took them seriously. It was Communists who first went to the American South and began organizing African-Americans and poor whites around issues of social justice. The more politically acceptable young people who followed them in the sixties are heroes today. On the international scene the Soviet Union provided support for Nelson Mandela and other reformers. Communism made life difficult for Western establishments, and it is doubtful that reforms would have come when they did if the USSR had not existed. Communists always rejected reform in favor of revolution. Ironically, however, the existence of the Soviet Union helped the capitalist West reform itself and avoid the bloody revolutions of the East. Twentieth-century communism was no passing illusion; its legacies are everywhere.

Why are we seeing books like these now, when communism is gone and there are no more dragons to slay? Their authors tell us that there have been no "probing examinations" of Communist horrors, and that communism has to date received no "fair and just" assessment. This comes as a surprise, given that the field of Soviet studies in the West before the late 1970s did little more than detail Soviet crimes. Most writing about the Soviet Union then was about totalitarian terror, and Soviet specialists provided us with a full menu of Communist atrocities. One could read about these horrors in Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn's masterly Gulag Archipelago decades ago. And it has been seven years since I and others published the actual figures on Soviet gulag inmates and executions from the KGB archives of the notorious gulag system. From 1921 to Stalin's death, in 1953, around 800,000 people were sentenced to death and shot, 85 percent of them in the years of the Great Terror of 1937-1938. From 1934 to Stalin's death, more than a million perished in the gulag camps. A few years ago these figures were confirmed by KGB archivists and published in the Yeltsin Administration's official gazetteer. No, the books under review are not responses to any failure to study these questions. A more cogent justification for these works lies in their presentation of factual material from newly available archives. In particular, Werth's chapters on the Soviet Union provide a wealth of historical details. It is unfortunate that they are presented more as polemic than as balanced, carefully analyzed history.

Such books, which use obsolete concepts to tell part of a story, are less about history than about politics. French tradition does not favor objective history for history's sake. Every history book in France is immediately understood as its author's political declaration. Because the French Communist Party is still a force in politics, historical books about communism inevitably become today's polemics. Courtois himself has said, "In France, history is politics." But Furet's erudition and the Courtois team's 800 pages of single-minded fine print are unlikely to produce a similar impact in the United States, where much more has been known of Soviet crimes and where the Communist Party has never been part of the respectable intellectual establishment.
By Gothmog
#197504
There was a worsening of living standrads...after all the Civil War had just ended and the 1922 Volga famine had just ended. That suerly would have an impact on future generations...which would reach reporduction age in the 1930s...and the effect of that is difficult to predict.

-Good point.

Second...I would like to see some data about this 17 million missing people...becasue they may not be accurate in themselves...just as Conquest's study of the Ukrainian census was wrong.


I looked at the 1939 census..and that said the population was 164.098.730 people. I was unable to find exact data on the 1926 census...but I read it was 147 million people. Therefore, in that 13 year period, the population increased by 17 million people...Maybe this is a coincidnence...but the number is 17.
Now...I am not sure what the rate of population increase was in the USSR at the time. But...for arguments sake...lets say 2% a year (this based that Ukraine had 2.6%...so the rest of the USSR would be somewhat lower). Over 13 years...it comes out to about 17 million after all (I didn't actually do the math..but it looks about right)! This unless the increase of population was much higher than 2%...than we would get 17 million missing....but how much higher was it??? And did it remain constant...or did the rate decrease as Soviet census itself says the rate decreased???
I am sorry...but in my...admititly limited 10 minute research...the population of the USSR seems to have increased at about 2% a year from 1926 to 1939 to an increase of 17 million people.

-No, an increase of 17 million in 13 years means around 0,9% an
-year (but althought your numbers are right, you´re wrong on the
-fact that the 164 million data is from 1937). If growth rates went
-on 2% an year, it would have given you near 180 million people.
-The 2% yearly increase comes from data from "Rise and Fall of
-Great Powers" USSR population was 126 million in 1920 and
-150,4 in 1928. This gives us 2,2% yearly increase. That book,
-however, gives an estimate of 180 million for the USSR
-population in 1938. It was published before the release of the
-results of the 1937 census. Another source for the 17 M
-deficit is from E. Hobsbawn, Age of Extremes (another very
-good historian)


Contrast this with Russia today which has a NEGATIVE population growth...and a 10 million population increase in the past 10 years.

-Never disagreed rom you in this aspect.


But I am prepared to admit my data is wrong if you have better data on those censues and specifically the rate of increase!!



I don't see this to be rare at all. Looking at Ukraine and Russia...they have this pattern without experiencing war, famine or genocide.

-I will mention you another country: India, whose population increased
-by only 8% from 1890 to 1920. A very small growth rate. Another
-country: China, whose population actually decreased from 1958 to
-1961. All those countries experienced disastrous policies which led
-to famine in China and India and to a worsening on living patterns
-on Russia and Ukarine, but, as I said, this is rare in peacetime
-and points to some nasty events.


I would have to dissagree. I did a little research myself!! I saw that between 1920 to 1928 there was an AVERAGE growth rate of 1.6% (1.58 to be exact). In 1920, this rate was near 2%. Between 1929 to 1938, the growth rate was only 0.744% on average...a decrease of some .9%!!

1929 population was 120.509.000...1938 population was 129.824.939...so population increased by about 9.8 million people...BUT should have increased if with the 1.6% increase of pre-1929 by about 15+ million people!!! There are 5 million MISSING people from the US census!! Excess deaths??

Seems we are stuck once more here...and we have very accurate data for the US census...year by year with increase rates for every year...and THERE IS a decrease in this rate...thus leading us to a missing 5 million people. But clearly...these 5 million people simply never existed...they were not killed by the US government.

-Where are your sources. I took this data from "Rise and Fall of Great
-Powers". If your numbers are right, the deficit is even higher
-than you state, because, a 1,5% growth from 1928 to 1938 would
-give you 138 million people. That´s exactly the number I have from
-1938 census. If my data is wrong then we could argue that the
-Depression led to massive impoverishement of the US people, and
-to both a rise in mortality and decrease in birth rates. Using the
-same rule I used for USSR, we could say that the Depression
-was responsible by 5 million premature deaths. That´s very
-interesting data.


Also with the US there is the factor of emigration to take into account...but they add to population rather than decrease it (except in a couple of years in the 30s...people leaving the US were more than people coming into US...but generally it was the other way around). So perhaps that 15 million may actually be a higher number if no additional influx happened!!

-Data from migration is very important in the USA. Agree with you.

Hmm...famine and gencide in the US in the 1930s...I think I'm going to write a book on that!!! LOL

-If your data is right, it´s worth an demographic, non biased investigation.


I know..but the study of 40% of the reports is in itself a biased report...becasue the other 60% are competely unkown...[/quote]

-Depeneds on how he collected the samples, if he took care to have
-an adequade geographical distribution, his results would be quite
-accurate.
By Gothmog
#197516
I´ve taken a look at the homepage of Census Bureau in the USA
and realized you´re quite right. Look at the USA population for
1920-1940

1920: 105M
1930: 122M
1940: 130M

%1920-1930:16% (1,5% yearly)
%1930-1940:6,5% (0,6% yearly)

Expected 1940: 141M
Déficit: 11M
Excess deaths:??

Wow!! I´m extremely confused. It seems US depression
caused a lot of excess deaths.....
By Tovarish Spetsnaz
#197558
Haha..yes..seems like it!!! I am sorry...I don't mean that as an insult...just that it seems commical to me that we see the exact same thing in the US. Thats why this is not the way to come up with such numbers...this is the wrong method.

Regarding Getty's article...I see a great lack of understanding of communism and Stalin's policies...but I don't expect anything more. He doesn't seem to add anything new other then 800.000 sentanced to deaths and the 1+ million deaths. But as I said...is it not strange that 88% of all death sentances were signed in 2 years??? Seems very strange..a fact that Stalin recognized and stopped the NKVD. Also, those numbers are from the NKVD archives...but as I said...NKVD did not have the right to execute anyone...and especially in 1937-38 Stalin took steps to limit what the NKVD was doing. So more accurate numbers...are those found in the Soviet Penal System...not NKVD...and those do not point to anything like 700.000 people in those 2 years...but a number far far far smaller.

-No, an increase of 17 million in 13 years means around 0,9% an
-year (but althought your numbers are right, you´re wrong on the
-fact that the 164 million data is from 1937). If growth rates went
-on 2% an year, it would have given you near 180 million people.
-The 2% yearly increase comes from data from "Rise and Fall of
-Great Powers" USSR population was 126 million in 1920 and
-150,4 in 1928. This gives us 2,2% yearly increase. That book,
-however, gives an estimate of 180 million for the USSR
-population in 1938. It was published before the release of the
-results of the 1937 census. Another source for the 17 M
-deficit is from E. Hobsbawn, Age of Extremes (another very
-good historian)


Ups!! yes you are right...its not 2%...my mistake (how did I do that???... :?: ) Anyway...it was close to 1% a year increase. This is greater than the US population increase during the depression years...So again it does not show any catastrophic impact on society.

BTW...I said the 164 million are from 1939...not 37.

Also..the 2.2% a year is obivously not going to apply into the 1930s...as already between 1926 and 1928...we see a dip below the 2%.

If the 1926 population was 147 million...and the 1928 is 150.4 million...than this corresponds to a growth rate of a bit more than 1% a year!!! (with a 2.2% it would have been 153.5 million).

So already by 1926...the actual growth rate was close to 1%!! So this decrease in population growth rate must have started long BEFORE 1929...when collectivization begun...and thus cannot be said to be caused by collectivization!!!

So we can see...this is a wrong method...of taking averages of an entire decade and applying them to another decade when already those figures are changing. And this same thing applies to the US during the depression!!! There were no "excess deaths"...no famines and genocides and so forth...and yet we see a VERY similar pattern. Clearly...whatever happened in the USSR was no more deadly than what happened in the US at the same time...IF we are to look at the censues. But as I already said...I believe this is the wrong method.

This is the wrong method in determining numbers of deaths...but this method can give us a time frame or a year to determine WHEN exactly things went wrong. Here is what I mean...


Looking at the two censuses...in the US census there is a dramatic and sudden decrease...as in 1928 I think the growth rate was near 2%...but the following years it fell to below 1%. In the USSR however...we can see that the decreas into the 1% area had already started in 1926...and continued pretty much on that 1% until 1939...Form what I can see...the gorwth rate of the USSR from 1926 to 1939 must have been flactuating on that 1% rate...In the early 20s there may have been some drastic increase for some reason...but clearly this 2.2% rate does not apply after 1926...as between 1926 and 1928 we can already see a rate of near 1%.


So if there are "excess deaths"...we can determine that the decrease in the rate happened sometimes...IN THE MID 20S...and therefore seems to me to be more the result of the catastrophic effects of the Civil War and of the period which followed the Civil War...NOT collectivization and NOT Stalin at all. Those happened much latter...and apparently the growth rate seems to still be at or near that 1%.

The same way...we can see that the decrese of the US rate happened exaclty in 1929-1930 and continued until the end of the 30s...and can be blamed entirely on the Great Depression.


I think we have achieved some great research here comrade...research that most historians missinterpret (arr...Conquest as the worst example). Maybe you can let someone know about these numbers.
By Gothmog
#197680
I think I´ve got a good portrait of the US demography in the 30´s.
A substantial % of "missing people" was the result of a dramatic
decrease in immigration. Decline in birth rates was impressive too,
but those two factors are not enough to explain the variation.
It seems the USA had 2-3 million excess deaths in the 30´s, no
doubt those premature deaths were caused by the dramatic
economic decline. There is a clear correlation between poverty
an decreased life expectation. Here are my estimates

1-Decline in US birt rate: difficult to be estimated, since we have no annual
results, just the graphics. My estimate is that birth rate declined from
23/1000 in the 20´s to 19/1000 in the 30´s. This results in a 5M deficit.
If decrease is 5/1000, the result is a 6,25M deficit.
2-Immigration: using variation of foreign born as a surrogate for variation
in net immigration, we have a deficit of another 3,000,000 people (increase
of 300,000 in the 20´s vs. decrease of 2,700,000 in the 30´s). However,
population of foreign born is subjected to mortality and net immigration
(but not to birth rates, since its offspring isn´t foreign born)
3-Overall deficit=11M
4-The remaining are excess deaths. This incomplete data points to a excess
deaths near 2-3M in one decade, depending on the exact value of birth rate
decline and the effect od overall mortality increase over foreign born
population.
By Gothmog
#197681
Tovarish Spetsnaz wrote:Haha..yes..seems like it!!! I am sorry...I don't mean that as an insult...just that it seems commical to me that we see the exact same thing in the US. Thats why this is not the way to come up with such numbers...this is the wrong method.

-I didn´t interpret it as an insult. No trouble

Regarding Getty's article...I see a great lack of understanding of communism and Stalin's policies...but I don't expect anything more. He doesn't seem to add anything new other then 800.000 sentanced to deaths and the 1+ million deaths. But as I said...is it not strange that 88% of all death sentances were signed in 2 years??? Seems very strange..a fact that Stalin recognized and stopped the NKVD. Also, those numbers are from the NKVD archives...but as I said...NKVD did not have the right to execute anyone...and especially in 1937-38 Stalin took steps to limit what the NKVD was doing. So more accurate numbers...are those found in the Soviet Penal System...not NKVD...and those do not point to anything like 700.000 people in those 2 years...but a number far far far smaller.

-That´s ok., I can´t counter your arguments here, at least for now.



If the 1926 population was 147 million...and the 1928 is 150.4 million...than this corresponds to a growth rate of a bit more than 1% a year!!! (with a 2.2% it would have been 153.5 million).

So already by 1926...the actual growth rate was close to 1%!! So this decrease in population growth rate must have started long BEFORE 1929...when collectivization begun...and thus cannot be said to be caused by collectivization!!!

-I think you have a good point here and would add an argument for
-you. Baseline statistics in the USSR are very difficult to be obtained.
-Consider this, from 1918-1928 you have no period of "normal growth"
-That´s because if you consider 1918-28 you will include all the excess
-deaths happened in the Civil war and famine, while, if you take 1922
-to 1928 you risk to overestimate growth rates because the population
-growth usually rebounds after recovery from war and famine.

So we can see...this is a wrong method...of taking averages of an entire decade and applying them to another decade when already those figures are changing. And this same thing applies to the US during the depression!!! There were no "excess deaths"...no famines and genocides and so forth...and yet we see a VERY similar pattern. Clearly...whatever happened in the USSR was no more deadly than what happened in the US at the same time...IF we are to look at the censues. But as I already said...I believe this is the wrong method.

-Hmmm....partially disagree, since 30% of the "missing people" in
-the USA was the result of immigration decline. This didn´t
-happen in the USSR.

I think we have achieved some great research here comrade...research that most historians missinterpret (arr...Conquest as the worst example). Maybe you can let someone know about these numbers.


-Let me see if Getty is interested
User avatar
By Maxim Litvinov
#264003
Sorry to resurrect a dead topic like this, but I can't agree grain production only fell from 71 million tons in 1930 to 69 million tons in 1931.

The actual Soviet figures are 83.5 in 1930, 69.5 in 1931, 69.9 in 1932.

Wheatcroft and Davies have this to say about the figures:
In our opinion these figures are most misleading. It should be noted in particular that the figure fro 1932 was cited unchagned in all Soviet statistics because it was officially approved by the Politburo and Sovnarkom. On 8 October 1932, the Politburo ruled that all discussion of the areas sown in the spring of 1931 and 1932 should cease; only figures based on the Narkomzem summary reposts (svodki) should be published. THen a year later, Sovnarkom, following a deicision of the Politburo, ruled that the gross harvest of grain crops in 1932 was to be taken as 698.7 million tsentners (69.9 million tons).


More accurate figures can be arrived at by doing a calculation of tsentners per hectar, as reported in regional committee meetings and stored in the archives. This data yields:

1930: 67 [low estimate] - 78 [high estimate] million tons
1931: 60 [low] - 69 [high] million tons
1932: 53 [low] - 58/63 [high] million tons.

This suggests a 10% decrease in production in 1931, and again in 1932.
All this is in Wheatcroft and Davies, "The Soviet Famine of 1932-33 and the Crisis in Agriculture", chapter 4 of Wheatcroft [ed] Challenging Traditional Views of Soviet History.
By Gothmog
#264005
Maxim Litvinov wrote:Sorry to resurrect a dead topic like this, but I can't agree grain production only fell from 71 million tons in 1930 to 69 million tons in 1931.


-That´s the main argument of another researcher called Mark Tauger. He argued that there were natural disasters in 1932 and that the real production in Ukraine was up to 40% below the official claims. If he is right, then the CP responsability would be somewhat lessened. The main point for Conquest and Co is that there wasn´t a fall in agricultural output, so the famine would be the direct result of distribution policies or even a deliberate attempt to hit the peasants.
By Berkut
#268452
TS,
Why don't you give us some sources? From the Soviet archives for example... :hmm:
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