Polish-Soviet War & German Socialist Revolution - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Inter-war period (1919-1938), Russian civil war (1917–1921) and other non World War topics (1914-1945).
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By Okonkwo
#13294593
Cookie Monster wrote:Alternative history speculation

... usually does not have any merit. ;) I do admit to it being entertaining.

Cookie Monster wrote:Could a Soviet victory in the 1919 Polish-Soviet War lead to the succeeding of a socialist revolution in Weimar Germany?

That certainly rings true in my opinion.
The young Soviet republic was eager to prove its worth and the internationality of its ideals by "liberating" Poland - that the Poles would simply see this as another episode of Russian imperialism should have been evident from the start.
In any case, the humiliating defeat of the Soviet army did indeed force the Russians to abandon any further adventurism for the next two decades - in that sense the war was not only fought for the independence of a single country but rather concerned the whole fate of Europe. That is why the Soviets winning the war is such an important idea.
If the Bolshevik's plan to support the German revolution - without which they believed Soviet Russia had no future would have been successful, perhaps the whole of Europe would have succumbed to communism. Without a victory in the Polish-Soviet War this was impossible, which leads one to believe that the Soviets actually winning it would have been an interesting prospect, to say the least.
By pugsville
#13294594
Dont know about the ability of the nasecent soviet states ability to project over a distance. I dont think there was any real support mongst the poles and it would have been unfriemdly terrorioty if not hostile. The Rightists elements with in germny were better orgnizsed and armed ( the army , police, frei korps) than the left. IF WW1 had ended with the 1918 armtice but had continued through 1919 and the complete destruction of the army, things might have been different.
By pugsville
#13294638
Oh yeah the timeline donest work, poland-red russia is 1920, the poles were too disorgnizsed to get serious into a conflict with reds, and the reds had plenty of other fish to fry had there hands full so it is hard to see the real conflict between reds and poland before the historical 1920, and the german socialists generlly got theirs in 1919 and the forces of the right had firm control in germany. (though could fit my extended ww1 proposal better)
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By Thunderhawk
#13294660
If the success was early, immidiate and with a huge amount of force I can see it having an impact on internal German politics. An interestng thing to see would be how many anti-communist reactionaries would come out of the wood work within Germany and how they would act. Would we see the Right crack down? The left take over? (and in what way, union with the USSR, sattelitehood or independence ala Yugoslavia?) or would it turn into something akin the religious wars the devestated the area of then Germany in the 1500s ?
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By Cookie Monster
#13294664
Oh yeah the timeline donest work, poland-red russia is 1920, the poles were too disorgnizsed to get serious into a conflict with reds, and the reds had plenty of other fish to fry had there hands full so it is hard to see the real conflict between reds and poland before the historical 1920, and the german socialists generlly got theirs in 1919 and the forces of the right had firm control in germany. (though could fit my extended ww1 proposal better)

Yeah I know, I copy pasted the 1919 from its wiki article whithout giving attention to the exact start of the war itself.

I wonder though whether or not the allied powers would have intervened if a successful bolshevik supported German socialist revolution was taking place. I can image the United States not being drawn into it, but I am unsure about the United Kingdom and France.

(and in what way, union with the USSR, sattelitehood or independence ala Yugoslavia?)

Yeah that is another odd product of history. How other socialist states were independent from the Soviet Union after their liberation in ww2.I am guessing the local population would not have condoned it, but it's odd. Perhaps the Soviet Union wanted more socialist states in order to have larger presence at the United Nations.
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By Thunderhawk
#13294892
Puppet regimes in Eastern Europe happened after WW2 with a huge Soviet military presence - and a military force with many soldiers that had little to go home to. In the OP scenario the situation is quite different, as even the Soviets had overwhelming force that beat the Poles, it still wouldnt be that much (the USSR was ravaged and still forming, after all). I imagine their pressence in Germany would be primarily one of supplying local communist movements with arms and combating the police/army. Unless the Soviet forces had absurd numbers and strength (make believe, rather then plausible alt history) then I see the German communists being a large force. If the Communist then succeeded, would Lenin share power with a German counter part or would he try to subsume him?

Great Britain's responce seems more straitforward that we can see in real history: strong anti-war sentiment and workers supporting the communists (as was seen in the port workers refusing to move arms).

I dont know how strong (not to be confused with popular or well established) the communist movements within France was after WW1 though.
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By Cookie Monster
#13294968
Puppet regimes in Eastern Europe happened after WW2 with a huge Soviet military presence - and a military force with many soldiers that had little to go home to. In the OP scenario the situation is quite different, as even the Soviets had overwhelming force that beat the Poles, it still wouldnt be that much (the USSR was ravaged and still forming, after all).
What I wondered was why the states governed by these puppet regimes did not become satellite republics of the Soviet Union but remained officially sovereign nations. Was it part of the Yalta agreement? Or was it a tactic by Stalin to have a larger communist presence at the United Nations? Or something else. I wonder.

Great Britain's responce seems more straitforward that we can see in real history: strong anti-war sentiment and workers supporting the communists (as was seen in the port workers refusing to move arms).
I am not sure about that. The workers did not have much to say about Britain's foreign policy. Britain had never remained neutral when a unifying force would sweep over Europe.
By Smilin' Dave
#13295054
In 1920 the Bolsheviks were still dealing with intervention forces (Japan certainly still had troops in the Far East, not 100% sure about Britain etc.) and an ongoing Civil War within their own borders, Wrangel from memory launched an offensive just prior to the battle for Warsaw. Let's also not forget that a year later the Kronstadt rebellion broke out, largely due to the burdens created by the Civil War, which in turn reflected deep economic failures. It's hard to believe that the Bolsheviks would have continued a war into Europe with all these problems right at home. I suspect Poland was only attempted in the first place because of:
- Polish intervention in the Russian Civil War
- Perception that Poland was 'part of Russia' thanks to the Imperial past.

The defeat outside Warsaw was somewhat inevitable too. The Polish counter offensive was such a huge success because it struck Red Army units which were overstretched, under-equipped and exhausted. Britain and France had already sent advisors to Poland by that point, and a longer war would have allowed arms shipments to arrive (from memory the shipments did arrive till after the 'miracle'.

IF it had succeeded, I think the Versailles limitations on the German army would have been waived by France and Britain, and the 'black Reichswehr' would have been legitimised and expanded upon. Anything overtly socialist would have been thrown out, probably including the SPD. In such a situation, I cannot see the Red Army being victorious. Also while I think of it, the Red Army would have had to have fought the Polish uprisings just as the Germans attempted to.
By Korchagin
#13318328
I suspect Poland was only attempted in the first place because of:
- Polish intervention in the Russian Civil War

It's a totally false premise that Russia unleashed a war with Poland. The war broke out as a result of Poland's invasion of Kiev in April 1920. It was the Polish side that sought to exploit a disorganized, distracted Russia and restore its domination over Ukraine and Byelorussia. Polish nationalist-revisionist historiography distorts the facts of the war to promote the fiction that "the Bolsheviks" were out to realize the goal of controlling all of Europe. It's all so absurd because Russia had in fact recognized Polish independence and sought to establish peace prior to the aggression of April 1920.
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