[Notorious B.i.G.]

I agree that ALP’s gain is the Libs didn’t run. Probably won ALP the seat. But...

This is HARDLY the beginning of the end.
This is a seat the Greens have not held, and lost by over 4000 votes in the 2010 Election.
This time the Greens had more primary votes than the ALP (unlike 2010), and are only behind by 600 odd votes now of the TPF.
So the Greens have performed even stronger than last time what is a premier ALP seat. Hardly a convincing win by the ALP, and definitely not the beginning of the end of the Greens. Just because you keep saying in Croll doesn’t make it true.
The Greens, while not winning anymore seats, they’re not losing anything and they are gaining primary votes in every single election the contest.

[colliric]

I agree that ALP’s gain is the Libs didn’t run. Probably won ALP the seat. But...

This is HARDLY the beginning of the end.
This is a seat the Greens have not held, and lost by over 4000 votes in the 2010 Election.
This time the Greens had more primary votes than the ALP (unlike 2010), and are only behind by 600 odd votes now of the TPF.
So the Greens have performed even stronger than last time what is a premier ALP seat. Hardly a convincing win by the ALP, and definitely not the beginning of the end of the Greens. Just because you keep saying in Croll doesn’t make it true.
The Greens, while not winning anymore seats, they’re not losing anything and they are gaining primary votes in every single election the contest.

The problem is those gains are pretty useless without prefrences, and while the primary has gone one way, the preferences, along with the traditional "soft" support from Labor, are going sharply the other(Especially now Labor has really trashed into the Greens, a growing trend in Victoria ever since Brumby called them "the Devil").... The Liberals read that gamble well. The Greens will never win a lowerhouse seat on Primary vote alone, and that's all that they are going on at the moment, and as soon as they start talking about cultivating preference deals again, Bob Brown's comments about never preferencing ever again will come back to haunt them.

They needed to win it, and they didn't. It's the continued "go nowhere" rot that has set into the Greens since they were predicted to win seats in the 2010 state election, and Labor combined with the Liberals to lock "the devil" out so they won nothing and gained almost nothing.

[Notorious B.i.G.]

The problem is those gains are pretty useless without prefrences

Greens collected 3,325 preference to ALP's 4900 (this in % terms is an increase in perferences from 2010 even with the ALP/Lib deal then). Not too shabby for a party that was preferenced behind the ALP by every major contender in the election. Hardly a ‘rot setting in’ and a big improvement on the 2010 election.

[colliric]

Greens collected 3,325 preference to ALP's 4900 (this in % terms is an increase in perferences from 2010 even with the ALP/Lib deal then). Not too shabby for a party that was preferenced behind the ALP by every major contender in the election. Hardly a ‘rot setting in’ and a big improvement on the 2010 election.

That's just talking up the numbers, and just plain not a realistic assesement of the situation, which is dire, at all.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... 6432291893

This is the 6th Labor seat the Greens were predicted to nominally take by the pundits, and the 6th in row they've lost based entirely on Preferences deals...

More and more it looks like the Bandt affair was a one-off freak show really caused by the Liberals being too liberal with their preference dealing at the time.

The Greens Primary vote has hardly shifted at all, and more recent results based on Polling showed that in that particular seat it rose to a high(resulting in another "Greens" tip by the pundits), before falling back to earth the election came.

I willing to bet a large chunk of the 30% that didn't even turn up to the election were Liberal Party supporters. If they had of voted, they would have ironically delivered a decisive preferences based victory to Labor(as they did in the previous 5 Labor VS Greens bouts)

[GandalfTheGrey]

That's just talking up the numbers, and just plain not a realistic assesement of the situation, which is dire, at all.

The numbers are a realistic assessment of the situation - the Greens beat labor on primary vote, and achieved their biggest ever primary vote. Not sure how you spin that reality into meaning the Greens are somehow in a "dire" situation. By the way, its likely Bandt will lose his seat as well, but that also doesn't itself mean the Greens are in terminal decline. Get back to me when their primary vote stops climbing. And if it doesn't, eventually they will be winning seats in their own right without preferences.

[colliric]

The numbers are a realistic assessment of the situation - the Greens beat labor on primary vote, and achieved their biggest ever primary vote. Not sure how you spin that reality into meaning the Greens are somehow in a "dire" situation. By the way, its likely Bandt will lose his seat as well, but that also doesn't itself mean the Greens are in terminal decline. Get back to me when their primary vote stops climbing. And if it doesn't, eventually they will be winning seats in their own right without preferences.

lol... that famous The Castle quote, "tell him he's dreamin'", is coming to mind right now....

[mum]

I to believe the GST should be increased. Increased to fund health & education. Put it up to 15% and spend the extra 5% directly on health and education just as DR Hewson wanted. Also remove the exemptions. It should be levied on everything.

I'm sure more money spent on health will magically make all the problems disappear.....

The issue that the gST is entrenched shouldn't matter. The Left were absolutely against it (like IR reform) so they should be rolling it back. Of course they should take it to an election as policy.

It's not often that government actually reduces taxes, despite rhetoric

[Swagman]

I to believe the GST should be increased. Increased to fund health & education. Put it up to 15% and spend the extra 5% directly on health and education just as DR Hewson wanted. Also remove the exemptions. It should be levied on everything.

I'm sure more money spent on health will magically make all the problems disappear.....

No the problems won't magically disappear but this idiot idea that health care should be totally free is ridiculous.

Increasing the GST is just one means to improve the system. Getting individuals no matter if they are indigenous or on welfare to at least make token payments for health care is another.

Robbing a minority to pay for the majority's problems is the Green's agenda and it totally sux because the majority just gets lazy because when it wants something it can simply vote it in until they eventually kill the golden goose.

The Greens preach environmental sustainability and economic irresponsibility.

The issue that the gST is entrenched shouldn't matter. The Left were absolutely against it (like IR reform) so they should be rolling it back. Of course they should take it to an election as policy.

It's not often that government actually reduces taxes, despite rhetoric

Yes not often because they have "short arms and deep pockets" my dad used to say.

They are also concerned with balancing their budget which means that if you increase expenditure to improve services you need a sustainable increased revenue source to be able to maintain the extra expenditure without going into deficit or borrowing unsustainably just like all the PIGGS nations in Europe, the US and most of the Australian States...............and now the Federal Govt.

[GandalfTheGrey]

Swag:

1. no one is proposing a "totally free" health care
2. environmental sustainability and economic responsibility is a contradiction in terms
3. What evidence is there that the federal government is borrowing unsustainably?

[mum]

I propose a continuous drastic reduction in the size of the federal government. I would be happy (for now) with a more moderate reduction in the size of state governments, but it is still necessary. The best thing our economy could have is a drastic reduction in private and corporate taxes (a drastic reduction in state owned land would be nice too).