The Great Depression 2 ? - Page 5 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By late
#15082436
Patrickov wrote:
I mean the United States still controls transport of oil around the world, not necessarily that they are primary supplier. Besides, I heard that refining technology and capacity are both very important matter too. Assuming these are true (sorry I did not bother to find proof), these are what US Dollar credibility is based on. Until all these having alternatives, dumping US dollar will not hurt the US at all.



Dollars are the reserve currency, which means other countries hold a lot of dollars. If China were to dump enough dollars, it would likely start a panic sell off of dollars.

Everyone would dump their dollars, which would instantly end our status as the reserve currency.

This would be very bad for the United States.

China doesn't want to go there, and we certainly don't want them to go there. But the stakes are really quite high.
#15082437
late wrote:Dollars are the reserve currency, which means other countries hold a lot of dollars. If China were to dump enough dollars, it would likely start a panic sell off of dollars.

Everyone would dump their dollars, which would instantly end our status as the reserve currency.


What I said is essentially my take that why the US Dollar is seen as a reliable reserve currency in the first place, and that I do NOT agree the bolded part would happen at all. (unless there are alternatives to global oil transportation, or there's sufficient replacement of oil as fuel -- and even that technology seems to be led by US -- Tesla, wink wink)
By late
#15082450
Patrickov wrote:
What I said is essentially my take that why the US Dollar is seen as a reliable reserve currency in the first place, and that I do NOT agree the bolded part would happen at all.



I wonder who cooked up that oil silliness. It's not relevant, and it looks like it's there to confuse the gullible.

Anyway, a currency keeps reserve status as long as people have confidence in it. That's the achilles heel, if China was to dump hundreds of billions, that would be a massive no confidence vote.

Some of the weaker economies would be likely to panic, the situation for them is dreadful as it is.

That's all it would take for the American Century to hit the wall and die.
#15082474
Patrickov wrote:I mean the United States still controls transport of oil around the world, not necessarily that they are primary supplier. Besides, I heard that refining technology and capacity are both very important matter too. Assuming these are true (sorry I did not bother to find proof), these are what US Dollar credibility is based on. Until all these having alternatives, dumping US dollar will not hurt the US at all.

Maybe you've heard of the Belt and Road project.

Image

On refining, I've too read that it is currently a barrier for China currently, but I wouldn't expect this to remain the case. Intuitively (meaning one could do the research but I don't feel like it right now) I would think the limitation on refining has more to do with low capacity than it does with technical barriers.
#15082496
late wrote:
I wonder when that coffee shop will open back up?


Our return north has been delayed as I watch the situation unfold. We should be in Portland early June & I'll keep U informed.I would hate to miss Maine for a year. Florida is nice in Winter but generally very boring. A national storage facility for old people like me.

Trump says " restaurants will reopen later, but probably with different owners" that's pretty ridiculous to say. I would love to see the country reopen later, but probably and hopefully with a different president.
Private equity stands to make another record killing. snatching up even more distressed property, destroying livelihoods and raising rents. While the rich enjoy full mortgage freezes for the duration, the have-nots are only granted a temporary stay on evictions.

A modest proposal, we give the poor and middle classes the whole two trillion dollars and see if it trickles up. :lol:
#15082507
During the 2008 banking crisis, Warren Buffett said: “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” So it is with pandemics. You find out which countries have taken governance seriously and which didn’t. You find out which companies are living on credit and which have strong balance sheets. You find out who has a health care system that can manage a once-in-a-century crisis and who doesn’t. You find out which countries, cities and communities have a high degree of social trust and can pull together and which can’t. You find out who respects Mother Nature and who’s dumb enough to challenge her to a duel.

Well, by those indexes, with our bathing suit gone, we are not even remotely impressive. We are not who we think we are.

If we fail to use this crisis to get healthy again — as a people and a government — it will not only be remembered for the vast death and destruction it wrought, but it will be remembered as the moment America ceded its global leadership to China.
#15082512
Rancid wrote:The only thing anyone person should be loyal to is money.


You get away with these sociopathic comments because I love you Rancid and I know you are a big exaggerated professional Bromista.

That is the Cappy value system. Loyal to money only. They should be kicked in the ass in these humanitarian crisis.....and they will be. :D :D


Big besos!
#15082515
jimjam wrote:During the 2008 banking crisis, Warren Buffett said: “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” So it is with pandemics. You find out which countries have taken governance seriously and which didn’t. You find out which companies are living on credit and which have strong balance sheets. You find out who has a health care system that can manage a once-in-a-century crisis and who doesn’t. You find out which countries, cities and communities have a high degree of social trust and can pull together and which can’t. You find out who respects Mother Nature and who’s dumb enough to challenge her to a duel.

Well, by those indexes, with our bathing suit gone, we are not even remotely impressive. We are not who we think we are.

If we fail to use this crisis to get healthy again — as a people and a government — it will not only be remembered for the vast death and destruction it wrought, but it will be remembered as the moment America ceded its global leadership to China.


I feel like taking my clothes off and swimming naked. Where do I sign up for that?
#15082519
Tainari88 wrote:I feel like taking my clothes off and swimming naked. Where do I sign up for that?


:eek: I think D.Trump is looking for another "Press Secretary". You have to be able to talk all day and say nothing other than D.Trump is the greatest human being ever and that trillions in newly printed $ given to billionaires will definitely "trickle down" to po folk ……. :lol:

I will repeat my comment from above because, IMO, it captures things very well: A modest proposal, we give the poor and middle classes the whole two trillion dollar rescue fund and see if it trickles up. :lol:
#15082611
jimjam wrote::eek: I think D.Trump is looking for another "Press Secretary". You have to be able to talk all day and say nothing other than D.Trump is the greatest human being ever and that trillions in newly printed $ given to billionaires will definitely "trickle down" to po folk ……. :lol:

I will repeat my comment from above because, IMO, it captures things very well: A modest proposal, we give the poor and middle classes the whole two trillion dollar rescue fund and see if it trickles up. :lol:



I know you are trying to be funny, but you are actually right. Money does percolate up through the economy. Keynesian economics is based on demand side intervention. It did seem to have some benefit in the last Great Depression.

The approach taken in 2008 and now is to bail out the financial sector in order to stave off bank collapses. But at best it buys time. It comes at great cost due to debt but also unresolved moral hazard at the top end of town. Effectively it is transferring wealth from the tax payer to the financial elite without the later having to learn from their mistakes. No money will trickle down as they will immediately lock it up in esoteric investment instruments that don’t have any relation to production.

A better policy would be to simply nationalise the banks while spending on demand side, in social support and big infrastructure projects for example. Now, there are those among us who quail at the mention of the N word. I cite the example of Conrail to show nationalisation is a viable policy in desperate circumstances. You, @jimjam , might be old enough to remember the collapse of the NE Rail network at the end of the 1960s. Conrail was an effective and successful policy response. In time, after 3 decades, it was broken up and privatised again.

When facing dire conditions, nationalisation can solve problems of systemic collapse. It seems to me that the right policy now is for the American financial sector to be largely nationalised rather than giving tax payers money to the rich. This would still cost a lot of money to shore up the system, but the public would own it. Which they should, given it is their money.

In a few decades time it could be privatised again, with the proceeds of sale going to retire public debt raised to save the system.
#15082674
Crantag wrote:Maybe you've heard of the Belt and Road project.

Image


Yes, and many countries seem not very convinced of it or found themselves tricked by China. There are plenty of reports on this.


Crantag wrote:On refining, I've too read that it is currently a barrier for China currently, but I wouldn't expect this to remain the case. Intuitively (meaning one could do the research but I don't feel like it right now) I would think the limitation on refining has more to do with low capacity than it does with technical barriers.


I agree that capacity is also an issue. And there must be a reason that other countries have not developed such capacity.
#15084326
During Winter I live just West of Fort Myers ,Florida. Every night I sit on my lanai next to a canal which faces due South and I smoke either a Parodi or a Cuban and drink one beer. This lasts about 2 hours. I relax and clear my thinking while watching the stars and ……. the highway in the sky. All airplanes leaving Ft. Myers airports circle East right in front of me prior to fanning out around the globe. The traffic is, usually, steady. Sometimes I see 3 planes heading out in single file. For the past couple of weeks I have seen one or two planes go by during the entire 2 hours. Last night not one plane flew by. THIS IS SERIOUS SHIT. The economy is hurting so badly we do not even know how badly. Inconceivable at this time. We are going to need a new F.D.R. for this one. What do we have? A game show host who uses his time to bellow on and on about HE is the boss. Stay tuned kids … we are watching serious history unfold.
#15084483
jimjam wrote:During Winter I live just West of Fort Myers ,Florida. Every night I sit on my lanai next to a canal which faces due South and I smoke either a Parodi or a Cuban and drink one beer. This lasts about 2 hours. I relax and clear my thinking while watching the stars and ……. the highway in the sky. All airplanes leaving Ft. Myers airports circle East right in front of me prior to fanning out around the globe. The traffic is, usually, steady. Sometimes I see 3 planes heading out in single file. For the past couple of weeks I have seen one or two planes go by during the entire 2 hours. Last night not one plane flew by. THIS IS SERIOUS SHIT. The economy is hurting so badly we do not even know how badly. Inconceivable at this time. We are going to need a new F.D.R. for this one. What do we have? A game show host who uses his time to bellow on and on about HE is the boss. Stay tuned kids … we are watching serious history unfold.

"Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce." - Karl Marx.
#15084501
@Potemkin sleep with the angels.


This lovely Folk Chilean classic is for you Potemkin de mi corazon!

#15084543
@jimjam. I recall as a young man watching the first Gulf war unfold. I could not throw the feeling that it was just like the battle of Kadesh, the last great battle between the Egyptians and the Hittites. A generation or two later saw the Bronze Age collapse. It was the last display of the power of the leading nations of the day. Though we impress ours lives with the might again opposing human might, it is trivial against time and nature.

I liked to watch the aircraft fly over head and marvel at the engineering involved. I think 100 tons is typical and up to 400 tons for the big ones. They can fly at 30,000 feet and almost 600 miles/hr. That is some nifty design work. But I was also aware that when they stopped flying overhead, it would signal the collapse of this era. Now it is rare to see them.

Who knows. The current global civilisation may struggle back to it’s feet. But human creations are fragile things. We too easily delude ourselves as to how enduring are our accomplishments.
#15085506
I think many conservatives are still clinging to the fantasy that this will all be over soon and things will go back to the way they were. But the world and this country are never going to be the same, not next year, and not in ten years.

The notion of rugged individualism and self-sufficiency as guiding principles of conservative thought have been exposed for the fiction they always were. Unless you have a ventilator in your garage and know how to use it, you are not self-sufficient. Republicans should be afraid, very afraid.

During the Great Depression of the 30's, FDR's leadership brought us Social Security and other progessive programs that Americans embraced. They didn't realize prior how much the federal government could actually make their lives better. After which Republicans were in the "wilderness" for 20 years (in the WH) and longer in Congress. Might this happen again?
#15085893
Locally, the steady flow of airline traffic from the Fort Myers airport has been reduced from a few planes to ZERO traffic during the two hours each night while I smoke my evening cigar. I haven't seen a plane in the sky in a week. Local roads that recently struggled with bumper to bumper traffic now have only occasional cars. Empty roads resemble airport runways. Local gas stations are engaged in price wars.

In the big picture:

Something bizarre happened in the oil markets on Monday: Prices fell so much that some traders paid buyers to take oil off their hands.

The price of the main U.S. oil benchmark fell more than $50 a barrel to end the day about $30 below zero, the first time oil prices have ever turned negative.

Many companies are already reporting substantial losses, and experts said businesses across the oil patch will have to seek bankruptcy protection in the coming months.

Halliburton, the giant provider of equipment, workers and services to oil companies, on Monday reported a $1 billion loss in the first quarter, in contrast to net income of $152 million in the same period a year earlier.

Leadership? I think Donald had a plan where we were all to attend church on Easter Sunday and get up and go to work the next day. That didn't work so good. Thank God we have some very capable governors.
#15085898
jimjam wrote:Locally, the steady flow of airline traffic from the Fort Myers airport has been reduced from a few planes to ZERO traffic during the two hours each night while I smoke my evening cigar. I haven't seen a plane in the sky in a week. Local roads that recently struggled with bumper to bumper traffic now have only occasional cars. Empty roads resemble airport runways. Local gas stations are engaged in price wars.


All of this is wonderful news.
Less noise, less polution, less accidents.
Wonderful.

jimjam wrote:Something bizarre happened in the oil markets on Monday: Prices fell so much that some traders paid buyers to take oil off their hands.

More excellent news.
Less money for the Arabs, big losses for the hedge funds.

jimjam wrote:Halliburton, the giant provider of equipment, workers and services to oil companies, on Monday reported a $1 billion loss in the first quarter, in contrast to net income of $152 million in the same period a year earlier.

Fuck Haliburton.
#15085905
jimjam wrote:I think many conservatives are still clinging to the fantasy that this will all be over soon and things will go back to the way they were. But the world and this country are never going to be the same, not next year, and not in ten years.

The notion of rugged individualism and self-sufficiency as guiding principles of conservative thought have been exposed for the fiction they always were. Unless you have a ventilator in your garage and know how to use it, you are not self-sufficient. Republicans should be afraid, very afraid.

During the Great Depression of the 30's, FDR's leadership brought us Social Security and other progessive programs that Americans embraced. They didn't realize prior how much the federal government could actually make their lives better. After which Republicans were in the "wilderness" for 20 years (in the WH) and longer in Congress. Might this happen again?


Change is coming Jimjam. It is inevitable. Will the Trump supporters win another four years? I don't know if they will. If they cheat and lie and say it is rigged and do some crap moves of fraud? They might make it happen.

One has to be realistic jimjam. The USA is going to go in crisis. And the poor are going to suffer. It is basically hammer time and the elite are bunkering in to avoid responsibility. i think they will be in for a bloody fight from hell.

They deserve it too.
#15086182
Many smaller oil companies are expected to seek bankruptcy protection in the coming months after having spent years borrowing billions of dollars to extract and move crude. Production companies have $86 billion in debt coming due between 2020 and 2024, and pipeline companies have an additional $123 billion they have to repay or refinance over the same period, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The reverberations to other industries could be significant. A decade or two ago, low oil prices would serve to bolster the American economy by reducing energy costs. But the oil industry has become so big and important — it directly and indirectly employs 10 million people — that its problems will deal a blow to many kinds of businesses, including manufacturers that build its equipment, steel companies that make its pipes and banks and hedge funds that lend it money.
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