The US is loosing the technology war against China - Page 3 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

"It's the economy, stupid!"

Moderator: PoFo Economics & Capitalism Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please.
#15141987
Rancid wrote:@B0ycey, by the way, lots of people would flip their shit if Taiwan was taken by China, as this would mean China has control over the global semi-conductor supply chain. We know they will use their economic leverage on anyone they want (see Australia for starters). TSMC falling into the hands of the CCP would be worse than a mere trade war though.

If you don't know how TSMC is, you should look them up.


I wasn't aware of TSMC, but I suspect China is working on their own semi conductors in any case. One day they will announce superiority here I suspect.

As for Taiwan, it would cause a lot of anger. But it would be no different than with Ukraine. There is nothing you can do about it if they did. The mere fact they haven't is because it isn't in there interests to do so. Because of the diplomatic clusterfuck it would cause and potential end of the world scenario. Why would they enter a phyrric war to gain an island when they are winning anyway?

People lose their shit with China because they are playing the game better than the West. Not because of actions they have taken. I wouldn't go as far as to say we shouldn't assume they won't pose a risk in the future. That is why you have a military in the first place. And it is why Macron and not Karrenbauer was correct on what actions the EU should take today in terms of security. Nonetheless, when looking at China, for the size of their military compared to their GDP, if their goal was to conquer, it would be significantly bigger. It's size suggests defence. And perhaps that is because they understand history. Large empires always collapse because they over stretch. You cannot bomb your way into the minds of your opponents. It is better to trade. And in many ways, that is why the world away from the West consider the US and not China the greater risk to the world. Because America will enter a war for personal gain. And China does not.
#15142007
B0ycey wrote:I wasn't aware of TSMC, but I suspect China is working on their own semi conductors in any case. One day they will announce superiority here I suspect.


Maybe, maybe not.

China is way behind on this front, and technologist believe it will be hard for them to catch up or surpass. It isn't as simple as just getting people educated in semiconductor design and manufacturing. Further, they are behind on post-silicon research. Another area that isn't as easy to catch up. Further, US/EU are starting to rebuild their semi-conductor capacity after exporting it to Taiwan basically. They are also being more guarded with their technology too, so it should be come harder to China to steal/learn from this.

None the less, as of today. TSMC falling in the hands of China would be bad for the planet. No one should want this. If anyone wants this, they are an imperialist. They can actually hold the globe hostage by doing this. This is a very real risk, hence the renewed investment in US and EU semiconductor capacity and research. As well as post-semiconductor electronics (graphene, nano-tubes, etc. etc.)

B0ycey wrote:People lose their shit with China because they are playing the game better than the West.


Of course they are playing it better. Hence why I'm calling for the west to get back off its ass and play it better than China. I've said numerous times on here, that the only thing the west can do, is simply continue to try nad out innovate China. How is that "losing my shit?" It's acceptance of the reality.

Why should we expect or want the west to just stand by given what we have seen thus far? Why should I accept the CCP crushing freedom in Hong Kong? This is something that has directly impacted my extended family. This isn't losing of shit.
#15142010
Rancid wrote:None the less, as of today. TSMC falling in the hands of China would be bad for the planet. No one should want this. If anyone wants this, they are an imperialist. This is a very real risk, hence the renewed investment in US and EU semiconductor capacity and research. As well as post-semiconductor electionics (graphene, nano-tubes, etc. etc.)


Then TSMC should move their headquarters given that Taiwan is de facto China. We don't know what China are doing behind closed doors. Speculation they are behind is the same as speculating they are not. But given the technology in semiconductors are related to technogical efficency rather than anything else, this is a commercial issue. I don't see how it relates to a 'doomed planet' given that once the technology is out there and used within a commercial setting, deconstruction means every nation has the technology.

Of course they are playing it better. Hence why I'm calling for the west to get back off its ass and play it better than China. That's not "losing their shit", why should we expect or want the west to just stand by?


Then you should be against Capitalism full stop. We go to China because it is profitable to do so. And you cannot just break those ties if you want to maintain the system. I would say it is better to work with China and then lessen our dependency of them. Because ultimately your argument can be applied to America as well.
#15142012
B0ycey wrote:Speculation they are behind is the same as speculating they are not.


No, they are behind at this moment. This is fact known. This is the industry I work in. Take any Chinese company'ss chip, x-ray it, de-cap it, microscope it, etc. etc. It's obvious they are still very much behind.

B0ycey wrote:Then you should be against Capitalism full stop. We go to China because it is profitable to do so. And you cannot just break those ties if you want to maintain the system. I would say it is better to work with China and then lessen our dependency of them. Because ultimately your argument can be applied to America as well.


I am against capitalism (I'll get back to this later). Yes, I've stated many times also, that it was the west that created the current situation.

I've never suggested breaking ties with China. I would argue its better to lessen our dependency AND to also work with them. Here's the thing, if we are too dependent, working with them is not an option. As you said, they are playing the game very well, and the capitalism game dictates that you don't cooperate if you don't have to. I think this is the flaw in your thinking. If we are too dependent, they have all of the leverage, and thus there is no incentive for them to work with us (see Australia trade issues).

So in fact, to be able to work with them, we have to decouple somewhat (not entirely). Not serve ties, but decouple significantly, especially our supply chains.

As for capitalism itself, are you assuming I'm a die hard capitalist? Because I'm not. I think my posts in the past have demonstrated that. Capitalism is very unsustainable as a whole. I'm not sure any sort of true global communism is really possible either as it requires a level of global cooperation that just seems unrealistic. Thus, in our practical reality, I tend to advocate for two things. Mixed systems, and a global order where no single nation has all of the leverage over other nations. A very multi-polar world is what we need, not just US-China. We need to see the EU raise, Latin America, etc. etc. Hopefully some sort of balance can be maintained in that setup, but I"m sure something will always upset it.

China being he singular nation that is a raising hegemony is not good. Perhaps if we equally saw India, Brazil, etc. raise as well, that would be better. However, they have domestic corruption issues that prevent them from getting their houses in order. Even a stronger Russia would be a check on China.
#15142015
Rancid wrote:As for capitalism itself, are you assuming I'm a die hard capitalist? Because I'm not.


Well you do like to talk about money alot. :D

It is difficult to say what someone believes. I do think your posts are more left leaning these days. Personally I am not against Capitalism in its entirety. I just don't believe in Heyakism or Reaganomics which is what I blame for the Wests decline. When you take profits over a nations self interest, that is where we went so wrong. Home grown production and self efficiency should be every nations number one priority today.
#15142016
B0ycey wrote:Well you do like to talk about money alot. :D


Fair enough, but that's sarcasm most of the time.

B0ycey wrote:Home grown production and self efficiency should be every nations number one priority today.



I'm not 100% on that self sufficiency would be good though. The reason I think semi-coupling of supply chains and economies is good, is because it then makes going to war bad for business. In effect, it increases the cost of conflict, which means nations might be less likely to want to go to war. dunno, I'd have to think about this some more but it feels like you don't want too much independence nor dependence.
#15142026
Rancid wrote:I'm not 100% on that self sufficiency would be good though. The reason I think semi-coupling of supply chains and economies is good, is because it then makes going to war bad for business. In effect, it increases the cost of conflict, which means nations might be less likely to want to go to war. dunno, I'd have to think about this some more but it feels like you don't want too much independence nor dependence.


I would say resources are the number one reason for wars actually. If you were self reliant, then this is no longer an issue. Although I do think 100% self sufficiency is basically impossible in any case. But you should aim for it in despite that, as illustrated by the Covid clusterfuck and the fight for paper masks and aprons.

As for independence, it depends on what you mean. I don't think any nation should be a proxy to some one else's geopolitics but at the same time the UK cannot retain its authority outside a collective. Which means I believe in alliances and in general support the US in many expects, just not its geopolitics. But at the same time we shouldn't rely on them in any case. Trump is a warning. Given the rise of populism, we don't know who is going to be elected or whether they will retain the special relationship. But at the same time we have much in common with America and I like American people. So no, I am not for independence and want to retain the special relationship. And I am for trade with our allies full stop. But at the same time, if you cannot even build your own 5G network, you need to think about that if you don't want to be reliant on someone else for the rest of your life if that makes any sense.
#15142351
Unthinking Majority wrote:China and Hauwei stole their telecommunications and 5G tech from Canada. China is the enemy of the West. A Chinese piece of software or hardware will never enter my home. We're all warriors in the New Cold War, choose your sides wisely.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... rom-nortel


Guess how much China will steal when they controle the mobile internet.

Creating a guide for doctors to better diagnose sk[…]

How to deal with Trump?

2)International law doesn't work like that, esp.[…]

Which civilization didn't thought of themselves as[…]

US bombs Syria

Covid relief payments since election: $0 Missiles […]