people are leaving the US Northeast - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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There is net migration out of the US Northeast region, and the net population is even going down a little bit. This will discuss why this is happening and what it means.


Why Are So Many People Moving Out of the Northeast?

Roughly two-thirds of those leaving are moving south.
The exodus has been most apparent in the state of New York, with New York City responsible for most of the number of people leaving from the state.
The other state in this region with the most people leaving is New Jersey.

There were a roughly similar number of people leaving the Midwest too, but in the Midwest this was mostly offset by a similar number of people moving inbound from other regions.

One report (from the think tank New Jersey Future) showed that millennials (those roughly between the ages of 22 to 37 ) in particular were leaving the state.
In Connecticut, out-migration has been most pronounced among the state's younger adults, ages 22 to 29, and those 65 and over.

Out-migration could further increase, as more baby boomers start to retire. As it stands currently, it's not retirees who are driving the steep migration losses. Residents age 65 and over accounted for only about 8 percent of out-migration from the Northeast.

According to survey data from New York and New Jersey, those leaving did not cite "cheaper housing" so much as the reason they were leaving, but more often cited "no longer wanting to rent" or desiring "new or better housing".​

2018 Migration Trends: Why Are So Many People Moving Out of the Northeast? (governing.com)
https://www.governing.com/archive/gov-m ... trend.html

The article also describes a trend where young adults from all the other regions who have not yet established their careers are moving West, as well as young families with children.

The Northeast is unique in that it's the only region that lost more employed workers than it gained. The majority - about 58 percent - of former residents leaving were of prime working ages, from 25 to 64 years old.

The major issue is not so much that so many people are leaving the Northeast, but rather that so few people from other regions are moving to the Northeast.

The Northeast was for a long time the most populous region in the US. It later became the least populated (overall) of the four regions in the country.


Timothy Noah points out that people have been moving out of states with high per-capita incomes - Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland - to states with lower income levels.
"Why are Americans by and large moving away from economic opportunity rather than toward it?" he asks.
The movement from high-tax, high-housing-cost states to low-tax, low-housing-cost states has been going on for more than 40 years.

Opportunity does exist in the Northeastern states and in California - for people with very high skill levels and for low-skill immigrants, without whom those metro areas would have lost, rather than gained, population over the last three decades.

But there’s not much opportunity there for people with midlevel skills who want to raise families. Housing costs are exceedingly high. Central city public schools, with a few exceptions, repel most middle-class parents.

High taxes produce revenues to finance handsome benefits and pensions for public employee union members in the high-cost states. It’s hard to see how this benefits middle-class people making their livings in the private sector.

As economist Tyler Cowen points out in Time magazine, when you adjust incomes for tax rates and cost of living, Texas comes out ahead of California and New York and ranks behind only Virginia and Washington state.

Liberals often decry income inequality. But the states with the most unequal incomes and highest poverty levels these days are California and New York. That’s what happens when high taxes and housing costs squeeze out the middle class.
As Noah notes, "Few working-class people earn enough money to live anywhere near San Francisco."​

Why are Americans fleeing the Northeast? (nypost.com)
https://nypost.com/2013/10/31/fleeing-t ... northeast/

So what appears to be happening, there seems to be a pattern of immigrants from other countries moving to high population-density cities for relatively lower-paying job opportunities that other Americans are not taking because of the very high costs of housing in those areas. These immigrants then have children who want to move out of those areas, since those children are now citizens and no longer under the same constraints.

Viewed from one perspective, it's sort of like these high cost of housing cities are serving as catalysts for bringing in foreign population from other countries. It is the very high costs of housing that are creating a vacuum of Americans who would otherwise be taking those jobs, and so an opportunity is created for someone from another country, who likely has much lower expectations about what their living standards are going to be like. (Living on very little money to be able to pay the high cost of rent, or sharing a living space together with a large number of other people)

What does this say about the most Progressive areas in the country when there are now more people leaving than wanting to move to them?
Does it discredit their policies?

There are probably some serious economic factors driving this net migration of people across different regions of the country. Probably something worth looking at and giving some thought to.
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