Is the US economy overheating - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15192132
Labourforce and resources scarcity is an indicator for overheating. When again trillions are pumped suddenly in an economy could lead to a crash. Overheating and super-inflation mean an end of the US Dollar as world currency.
#15192134
Sandzak wrote:Labourforce and resources scarcity is an indicator for overheating. When again trillions are pumped suddenly in an economy could lead to a crash. Overheating and super-inflation mean an end of the US Dollar as world currency.



The sooner the better. No more printing cash and throwing it at global wars.
#15192581
It certainly doesn't seem like it is yet. Data is from US in Aug. 2021, reported 9/15/21.

WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Underlying U.S. consumer prices increased at their slowest pace in six months in August as used motor vehicle prices tumbled, suggesting that inflation had probably peaked, though it could remain high for a while amid persistent supply constraints.


Remember, all these month to month and month to the same month last year inflation figures are partly just prices going back up after they went down in 2020. Also, there have been shortages of some products caused by covid causing a drop in importing or in US production.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-cor ... 021-09-14/
#15194118
This is a mistake the Fed made in the late 70s. Gas prices were going up because OPEC wanted more money.

That means the cause of the crisis was outside the country, the Fed couldn't touch it.

But the Fed decided to raise interest rates, kicking the economy in the nuts. But gas prices...outside the country? OPEC didn't care..

Anyway, oil inflation is exogenous, caused by external factors.

We have a 'just in time' business delivery theory, and we just discovered it has a fatal flaw. What I am hinting at is that this is terra nova, meaning a new land. As far as I can tell, this is a new combination of a pandemic revealing weaknesses in the way we do business, and the way Americans do things.

It's like a roller coaster ride, but no one knows if it will end smoothly where it started, or if track is missing and we're about to try flying without wings.

But I will say I don't think it's overheating. But I do think that if Republicans default on the debt, we won't wind up in a recession, it will be a major depression. And since the government has been playing stimulus for 40 years, there aren't a lot of cards left in the deck to fight it.
#15194161
Steve_American wrote:It's the shortages that are driving the inflation.
The just in time delivery system has imploded.
We traded resiliency for cheapness, and then came covid-19.
.


Its alright Steve. I told you that closing down the economy would cause inflation and supply issues and you were super cool with that last year as long as we we safe and sound in our lowdowns. Why the change of heart? Besides, you live in Thailand if I recall.

Anyway, starting to feel the inflation bubble myself now when it comes to gas prices. I feel vindicated and know who all the lockdownteers are.
#15194163
B0ycey wrote:
Its alright Steve. I told you that closing down the economy would cause inflation and supply issues and you were super cool with that last year as long as we we safe and sound in our lowdowns. Why the change of heart? Besides, you live in Thailand if I recall.

Anyway, starting to feel the inflation bubble myself now when it comes to gas prices. I feel vindicated and know who all the lockdownteers are.



Read my post immediately above yours...

Btw, if we didn't do what we did, when inflation hit, it would have been a nightmare morphing into a catastrophe...

But thanks, that was kinda amazing.
#15194166
late wrote:Read my post immediately above yours...

Btw, if we didn't do what we did, when inflation hit, it would have been a nightmare morphing into a catastrophe...

But thanks, that was kinda amazing.


I don't really know what you want me to address. If we carried on and let this whole affair have the right level of responsibility, ie isolate the vulnerable and didn't pay people to sit on their ass and scare everyone shitless with panic, we would have the supplyline running normally. This was a global fuck up so isn't down to America only. And now everyone wants to buy their shit with their free Benjamins in a market that wasn't running. I did actually say this was going to happen like two years ago when everyone was on their 'fuck the economy, health is more important campaign'.
#15194173
Rancid wrote:The shortages are just a reminder that there is in fact risk to export your supply chain.


That is part of the problem. I also remember saying the same thing two years ago when it came to paper masks that it was a wake up call for bringing production home. But the supply issue is due to production ceasing and whether that is in Asia or America, it was always going to be a problem when the economy opened up as the demand was merely delayed rather than ceased but production was ceased.
#15194181
B0ycey wrote:
That is part of the problem. I also remember saying the same thing two years ago when it came to paper masks that it was a wake up call for bringing production home. But the supply issue is due to production ceasing and whether that is in Asia or America, it was always going to be a problem when the economy opened up as the demand was merely delayed rather than ceased but production was ceased.


Indeed. However, one of the big bottlenecks is the ports. If you have production domestically, there is enough rail/truck/air to move things around domestically. Although you'd still have problems with supply domestically, it would likely be less worse than what we see now, and probably easier to recover.

This is why the US is not seeing price spikes in natural gas. Our production is mostly domestic.
#15194185
Rancid wrote:Indeed. However, one of the big bottlenecks is the ports. If you have production domestically, there is enough rail/truck/air to move things around domestically. Although you'd still have problems with supply domestically, it would likely be less worse than what we see now, and probably easier to recover.

This is why the US is not seeing price spikes in natural gas. Our production is mostly domestic.


Indeed. And of course container prices have shot up which increases costs as well (inflation). But what I will say is given China actually kept their economy running and said fuck it to Covid last year and hypothetically had US production remained home and you ceased production and didn't produce the things that are currently waiting for in the ocean, that would be worse than what we have now. :hmm:
#15194192
B0ycey wrote:
Well at least you admit you wrote nothing worthy of reply.



Love it when you project more than a 10 movie mall cineplex...

You said yourself you didn't know how to reply. Which was amusing, if not surprising. You actually thought you had that figured out, which, as I pointed out, was kinda amazing.
#15194200
Igor Antunov wrote:The sooner the better. No more printing cash and throwing it at global wars.


So many countries are dependent on the thriving of the US dollar. I would not be too happy to see the US economy crash. China and Canada would take a hit as well as other trade partners. Other nations would probably jump in to try to save the US if it got to that crisis point. For now, the US is okay.
#15194203
B0ycey wrote:
But what I will say is given China actually kept their economy running and said fuck it to Covid last year...



Interesting fantasy.

"The question now is whether the world can take lessons from China's apparent success—and whether the massive lockdowns and electronic surveillance measures imposed by an authoritarian government would work in other countries."

The only thing they didn't do is ignore Covid.

Did you find that BS, or make it up?

FYI, the American Right freaks out any time we even talk about things like quarantines, surveillance, mandatory anything, etc. Seriously, wtf?

https://www.science.org/content/article ... -countries
#15194221
MistyTiger wrote:So many countries are dependent on the thriving of the US dollar. I would not be too happy to see the US economy crash. China and Canada would take a hit as well as other trade partners. Other nations would probably jump in to try to save the US if it got to that crisis point. For now, the US is okay.


There are many states in the US. Separate trade agreements with each might actually be more efficient.
#15194222
There's a mix of forces going on here. It remains to be seen if the disruption in supply chains is the only explanation for this higher inflation or if there's something else - if inflation persists into 2022 the Fed will almost surely move to suppress it and push it back to target.
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