China Trade Surplus at A Record $676.4 Billion Even As Imports Grew by 32.7% - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15207335
Driven by an uptick in shipments of mechanical and electronic products, China’s total exports in 2021 touched $3.36 trillion, representing a 29.9 per cent higher than the 2020 number.

With China's imports also increasing by 30.1 % to $2.69 trillion, the country's overall foreign trade stood at $6.05 trillion in 2021.

The country's export performance was boosted by a strong showing in December with exports clocking $340.5 billion.

After a brief period in 2019 when Trumpian trade wars clobbered bilateral imports and exports., the trade between China and the US is back on track. It surged by 28.7 percent year-on-year in 2021, amounting to a staggering number of $755.6 billion. Consequently U.S trade deficit with China further widened.

While China's export to the US increased by 27.5 percent over the whole year in 2021, while imports grew by 32.7 percent.

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/chin ... rew-by-327

Highest ever recorded for any country. Thicc gainz.
#15207630
Igor Antunov wrote:https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/china-exports-in-2021-touches-336-trillion-trade-surplus-at-a-record-6764-billion-even-as-imports-grew-by-327

Highest ever recorded for any country. Thicc gainz.


China Q4 gdp growth YoY is 3.6%. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ch ... 022-01-16/

Are you worried that Chinese economy is stalling?

As any authoritarian society it is reaching its peak and middle income trap is starting to strangle them. It will be fun to see Chinese protests in 10-15 years because of economic stagnation and government repressions. But you will label it another Cia plot as usually :lol:
#15207636
Igor Antunov wrote:Nonsense. The China bear narrative has been flopping hard since the 90's. Gordon Chang is laughing stock. Best ignored entirely at this point.

No clue who Gordon Chang is but whatever. Look at the world around you, the story repeats constantly through out the 20th and 21st centuries. Heck look at Russia and the other post Soviet states in the last 5-8 years who have not reformed and are autocracies and then compare them to the ones who had.

The only exception is perhaps Singapore, but Chinese model is nowhere remotely close to Singapore.
#15207645
Did you see latest growth figures, despite lockdowns?

Your 'western demo cracy model' has failed.

CPC dynasty is currently just 70 years into its 300 year rule. The golden ages take 50 years to kick off (started in 90's) after dynastic foundation and typically last up until year 200. So going from history China will continue to flourish for another 130 years.
#15207664
Igor Antunov wrote:Did you see latest growth figures, despite lockdowns?

Your 'western demo cracy model' has failed.

CPC dynasty is currently just 70 years into its 300 year rule. The golden ages take 50 years to kick off (started in 90's) after dynastic foundation and typically last up until year 200. So going from history China will continue to flourish for another 130 years.

What is this even based on? Latest growth for the Western countries depends on the country and overall is thousands in GDP per capita. While China is hundreds in GDP per capita. So much for your "Golden age"
#15207669
JohnRawls wrote:China Q4 gdp growth YoY is 3.6%. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/ch ... 022-01-16/

Are you worried that Chinese economy is stalling?

As any authoritarian society it is reaching its peak and middle income trap is starting to strangle them. It will be fun to see Chinese protests in 10-15 years because of economic stagnation and government repressions. But you will label it another Cia plot as usually :lol:

China's economy isn't stalling. It is your wish that China's economy to get worse, but facts are different.

Trade surplus is most important sign of a health economy. American economy was the same once upon a time.
#15207672
Istanbuller wrote:China's economy isn't stalling. It is your wish that China's economy to get worse, but facts are different.

Trade surplus is most important sign of a health economy. American economy was the same once upon a time.


It is a redundant metric on the overall health of the economy, since it can mean many things. Russia is also exporting a lot more in monetary value but it doesn't mean its economy is doing good. Also manufacturing is not necessarily bad or good. It depends how far on the value chain you are and manufacturing is often on the low side of the value chain and you are production/industry based economy which is not what modern economies are about.

Actually redundant is a bad word, misleading is a bit better.

This is the gist of the problem for middle income traps, they can't escape some form of resource production and/or manufacturing by transitioning to very high value add manufacturing or services. An easier example is that people who design, plan and so on the iphone get far more money compared to the people who actually put it together. In essence you need high value add jobs to transition to consumer based economy and become self-sufficient in the wellbeing and self-financing sense.
#15207785
JohnRawls wrote:It is a redundant metric on the overall health of the economy, since it can mean many things. Russia is also exporting a lot more in monetary value but it doesn't mean its economy is doing good. Also manufacturing is not necessarily bad or good. It depends how far on the value chain you are and manufacturing is often on the low side of the value chain and you are production/industry based economy which is not what modern economies are about.

Actually redundant is a bad word, misleading is a bit better.

This is the gist of the problem for middle income traps, they can't escape some form of resource production and/or manufacturing by transitioning to very high value add manufacturing or services. An easier example is that people who design, plan and so on the iphone get far more money compared to the people who actually put it together. In essence you need high value add jobs to transition to consumer based economy and become self-sufficient in the wellbeing and self-financing sense.

Russia is not a right example to compare. You knew it. Why are you trying to ignore things?

There is no trap. West tries it, but China is way too smart not fall it. China is going to be the world's most richest country ever in just 5 years.
#15207787
Istanbuller wrote:Russia is not a right example to compare. You knew it. Why are you trying to ignore things?

There is no trap. West tries it, but China is way too smart not fall it. China is going to be the world's most richest country ever in just 5 years.


Why exactly is Russia not the right place to compare? We can compare it to Turkey then who also has record exports but in reality the economy is not doing good. The nominal GDP per capita has fallen drastically also. The graph below is not even with 2021 on it.

Image

And before you say that PPP is fine then consider that most of the things that all people buy besides houses and food is bought with Nominal money. You can't buy your car, iphone, computer, dishwasher and so on with PPP.
#15207788
JohnRawls wrote:Why exactly is Russia not the right place to compare? We can compare it to Turkey then who also has record exports but in reality the economy is not doing good. The nominal GDP per capita has fallen drastically also. The graph below is not even with 2021 on it.

Image

And before you say that PPP is fine then consider that most of the things that all people buy besides houses and food is bought with Nominal money. You can't buy your car, iphone, computer, dishwasher and so on with PPP.

Nor Russia neither Turkey is comparable to China. Both economies can't achieve %1 of what China does.

Turkey's problems are related to political things. Govt doesn't understand economics. We will replace govt so things will get better hopefully.
#15207789
Istanbuller wrote:Nor Russia neither Turkey is comparable to China. Both economies can't achieve %1 of what China does.

Turkey's problems are related to political things. Govt doesn't understand economics. We will replace govt so things will get better hopefully.


So China is somehow special compared to all the other places :eh: The rules of economics are the same and there are no exceptions to them. China is not doing anything special compared to Russia, the only difference is that there are 1.4 billion Chinese and a lot less Russians.

It is pretty easy to extract resources or build manufacturing when wages are low, incomes are high and you make the money back within couple of years of you opening the factory. But it has been 30 years now since Deng opened them up and now the wages are more or less in line with other middle income trap countries and there are plenty of countries cheaper. So now instead of needing couple of years to make the money back then now you need a decade for basic manufacturing or dear god two-three decades for more complicated ventures that are high value add.

In the first case, the investor wouldn't worry about his investment even without rule of law, protection of his property or general government policy. I mean if you make your money back within couple of years then the risk ain't large. It is a whole different matter if you need to wait 10-30 years to make your money back. Why would an investor risk so much opening a high value add business in China if it is possible to open the same kind of business in a more safer place where government policies, rule of law, repressions and so on wouldn't be a problem at all.
#15207791
JohnRawls wrote:So China is somehow special compared to all the other places :eh: The rules of economics are the same and there are no exceptions to them. China is not doing anything special compared to Russia, the only difference is that there are 1.4 billion Chinese and a lot less Russians.

It is pretty easy to extract resources or build manufacturing when wages are low, incomes are high and you make the money back within couple of years of you opening the factory. But it has been 30 years now since Deng opened them up and now the wages are more or less in line with other middle income trap countries and there are plenty of countries cheaper. So now instead of needing couple of years to make the money back then now you need a decade for basic manufacturing or dear god two-three decades for more complicated ventures that are high value add.

In the first case, the investor wouldn't worry about his investment even without rule of law, protection of his property or general government policy. I mean if you make your money back within couple of years then the risk ain't large. It is a whole different matter if you need to wait 10-30 years to make your money back. Why would an investor risk so much opening a high value add business in China if it is possible to open the same kind of business in a more safer place where government policies, rule of law, repressions and so on wouldn't be a problem at all.

Without the rule of law, and a government to enforce that rule, then no sort of investment of capital for profit would be possible. Organised crime gangs would simply move in on you, and you would end up as a front man for the local equivalent of Al Capone or Dutch Schultz. And that’s if you were lucky. Russia in the 1990s springs to mind.
#15207793
Potemkin wrote:Without the rule of law, and a government to enforce that rule, then no sort of investment of capital for profit would be possible. Organised crime gangs would simply move in on you, and you would end up as a front man for the local equivalent of Al Capone or Dutch Schultz. And that’s if you were lucky. Russia in the 1990s springs to mind.


Well it is not that different right now in Russia compared from 1990s with FSB, State bureaucrats and Putin Oligarchs replacing organised crime. Same can be said for China in different ways through the government policies, corruption of bureaucrats and other economic shenanigans. Another problematic aspect to this is creation of monopolies either through government or government collusion in private hands which just outright destroy or buy out the competition. The last part also happens in the West but just in a way smaller proportion since the government actually tries to prevent this and fights it to some degree of success.

That is exactly my point Potemkin.

As I said, this becomes bigger and bigger problem over time as a countries economy becomes more complex and requires more time to get return on investment. High value add job creation requires significant level of certainty in great many aspects be it property rights, not being afraid that the government will shut you down or take your business way, not being afraid that some bureaucrat will arbitrarily harass you because other company or government paid him to do so and so on.
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