Is the US Dollar Dead? - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

"It's the economy, stupid!"

Moderator: PoFo Economics & Capitalism Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please.
#15277575
Well folks the Nomad Capitalist man here says the US Dollar as a world currency is on the decline? What does this mean in terms of your own personal wealth?

By late
#15277588
Guys like him make money selling crap...

It's a scare story, nothing more.

In 1973, when I was leaving Europe, I noticed my dollars bought less than when I arrived several months earlier. This has been going on for a long time, but the dollar doesn't always go down.

Eventually, the dollar will lose reserve status. But first a country has to replace us as the economic superpower. China and Russia are in serious trouble. Europe is entering a challenging transition period.

For a variety of reasons, but primarily because America will be less harmed by the coming crisis, the dollar will be even more secure as the reserve currency, at least for a while.

I largely agree with Peter Zeihan on this:

#15277589
late wrote:Guys like him make money selling crap...

It's a scare story, nothing more.

In 1973, when I was leaving Europe, I noticed my dollars bought less than when I arrived several months earlier. This has been going on for a long time, but the dollar doesn't always go down.

Eventually, the dollar will lose reserve status. But first a country has to replace us as the economic superpower. China and Russia are in serious trouble. Europe is entering a challenging transition period.

For a variety of reasons, but primarily because America will be less harmed by the coming crisis, the dollar will be even more secure as the reserve currency, at least for a while.

I largely agree with Peter Zeihan on this:



Well the issue is the Mexican peso is getting kind of strong against the US dollar. It is making it more expensive to live here. The Mexican economy is getting better.

I am thinking though that for many Central American economies and South American economies the dollar is still strong. But for Mexico? The US dollar is weakening Late.

By late
#15277599
Tainari88 wrote:
Well the issue is the Mexican peso is getting kind of strong against the US dollar. It is making it more expensive to live here. The Mexican economy is getting better.

I am thinking though that for many Central American economies and South American economies the dollar is still strong. But for Mexico? The US dollar is weakening Late.



The peso can't play, sorry.

The Mexican economy is growing, which is great. But it's growing because it's becoming part of the US economy.

Which means because their economy is too small to act as the global reserve, and it's dependent on the US economy; there is literally zero chance of it becoming the new reserve.
#15277601
Tainari88 wrote:Well the issue is the Mexican peso is getting kind of strong against the US dollar. It is making it more expensive to live here. The Mexican economy is getting better.

I am thinking though that for many Central American economies and South American economies the dollar is still strong. But for Mexico? The US dollar is weakening Late.



The US floats the dollar on the international currency market. This means it goes up and down against the different foreign currencies all the time.
It is up against the Thai Baht.
This has zero effect on its reserve currency status.
Peter explains it well.
.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15277609
People seems to misunderstand what makes a reserve currency the reserve currency.

Lot's of misconceptions, which is why these people are consistently wrong when they say "the dollar is dead/dying/whatever". We've been hearing this claim since the 90s....
By late
#15277613
Rancid wrote:
People seems to misunderstand what makes a reserve currency the reserve currency.

Lot's of misconceptions, which is why these people are consistently wrong when they say "the dollar is dead/dying/whatever". We've been hearing this claim since the 90s....



Absafragginglutely..

"A reserve currency (or anchor currency) is a foreign currency that is held in significant quantities by central banks or other monetary authorities as part of their foreign exchange reserves. The reserve currency can be used in international transactions, international investments and all aspects of the global economy. It is often considered a hard currency or safe-haven currency.

The United Kingdom's pound sterling was the primary reserve currency of much of the world in the 19th century and first half of the 20th century.[1] However, by the middle of the 20th century, the United States dollar had become the world's dominant reserve currency.[2] The world's need for dollars has allowed the United States government to borrow at lower costs, giving the United States an advantage in excess of US$100 billion per year."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency

"The Triffin dilemma or Triffin paradox is the conflict of economic interests that arises between short-term domestic and long-term international objectives for countries whose currencies serve as global reserve currencies. This dilemma was identified in the 1960s by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin, who pointed out that the country whose currency, being the global reserve currency, foreign nations wish to hold, must be willing to supply the world with an extra supply of its currency to fulfill world demand for these foreign exchange reserves, leading to a trade deficit.[1]

The use of a national currency, such as the U.S. dollar, as global reserve currency leads to tension between its national and global monetary policy. This is reflected in fundamental imbalances in the balance of payments on the current account, as some goals require an outflow of dollars from the United States, while others require an inflow.

The Triffin dilemma is usually cited to articulate the problems with the role of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency under the Bretton Woods system. John Maynard Keynes had anticipated this difficulty and had advocated the use of a global reserve currency called 'Bancor'. Currently, the IMF's SDRs are the closest thing to the proposed Bancor but they have not been adopted widely enough to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the governor of the People's Bank of China explicitly named the Triffin Dilemma as the root cause of the economic disorder, in a speech titled Reform the International Monetary System. Zhou Xiaochuan's speech of 29 March 2009 proposed strengthening existing global currency controls, through the IMF.[5][6]

This would involve a gradual move away from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and towards the use of IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) as a global reserve currency.

Zhou argued that part of the reason for the original Bretton Woods system breaking down was the refusal to adopt Keynes' bancor which would have been a special international reserve currency to be used instead of the dollar.

American economist Brad DeLong claims that on almost every point where Keynes was overruled by the Americans during the Bretton Woods negotiations, he was later proved correct by events.[7]

Zhou's proposal attracted much international attention;[8] in a November 2009 article published in Foreign Affairs magazine, economist C. Fred Bergsten argued that Zhou's suggestion or a similar change to the International Monetary System would be in the best interests in both the United States and the rest of the world.[9] While Zhou's proposal has not yet been adopted, leaders meeting in April at the 2009 G-20 London summit agreed to allow 250 billion SDRs to be created by the IMF, to be distributed to all IMF members according to each country's voting rights."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma#cite_note-1
#15277618
Rancid wrote:People seems to misunderstand what makes a reserve currency the reserve currency.

Lot's of misconceptions, which is why these people are consistently wrong when they say "the dollar is dead/dying/whatever". We've been hearing this claim since the 90s....




This is about sanctions that the US keeps doing. If the US keeps sanctioning governments based on politics, is not it logical that with less use of petroleum and some new energy source (lithium for batteries for EVs) might shift things down the road eh?

Don't you think it will change all of it?
#15277623
Robert Urbanek wrote:I suspect a lot of the “dollar is dying” talk is coming from holders of cryptocurrency who are trying to revive interest in their declining sector.


Well, you got to realize the crypto investors want to eliminate government influenced currencies. They want a form of trade free from government regulations. That is the key to getting headway into their form of economic trade structure. If they can crush taxation and regulation from governments of the world they can grow in power and in influence.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15277648
Tainari88 wrote:This is about sanctions that the US keeps doing. If the US keeps sanctioning governments based on politics, is not it logical that with less use of petroleum and some new energy source (lithium for batteries for EVs) might shift things down the road eh?

Don't you think it will change all of it?


Which nations is the US sanctioning, what is their GDP, how integrated are they with the global economy, do these same nations rely on the US's protection of global trade?

Can things change? Yes... Are we at the verge of a change? Yes. Is the dollar going to be dethroned soon? no... not all.
#15277652
Rancid wrote:Which nations is the US sanctioning, what is their GDP, how integrated are they with the global economy, do these same nations rely on the US's protection of global trade?

Can things change? Yes... Are we at the verge of a change? Yes. Is the dollar going to be dethroned soon? no... not all.


The US government sanctions nations that they want to control financially and they use the power of the US dollar to do it Rancid. For example if you have the Summit of the Americas to have all the nations of the Americas come together and discuss policies for building trade, diplomacy and etc and you exclude Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba because you do not like their governments and find them the enemy? You sanction them. Make it hard for them to access their own money.

IN the video if you watched it can you see how other nations will eventually get pissed off at the manipulations and will try to find an alternate currency that is not the petrodollar. Nomad Capitalist is stating that over time the percentage of reserve currency that is the dollar is going down every year. Why?

Instead of austerity and sanctions that only punish poor ordinary people in these nations being sanctioned? Why don't they work on humanitarian cooperative projects and not try to topple people from afar. It did not work in Iraq or in Afghanistan or in Lybia or in many nations that are told if you do not agree....we will starve you out into compliance. It only consolidates power of the undesired group.
#15278806
Not dead, but on the downward decline.
"Fortunately" all the other serious contenders for global reserve currency have been on the downward decline as well, so it is less likely people around the world will be considering ditching the dollar wholesale. Despite inflationary worries and weaponisation of the U.S. dollar against several other countries.
#15281107
Uh, why yes, dedollarization is currently underway.

Namely Saudi Arabia is accepting other currencies besides the dollar, namely the chinese yuan.

Which ends the petrodollar. Which apparently is now part of Herschaftswissen (government knowledge), because Wikipedia no longer has a page about it, while its one of the most important things to know about the world.

Anyway the petrodollar was introduced in the 1970s after the gold standard, on which bretton woods was based, was terminated. It is the concept that Saudi Arabia only sells oil for US dollar. Oil (and gas) is the by far most important crude, more important than all other crudes combined, and Saudi Arabia has the most of it and the easiest accessible, i.e. cheapest. Thus the petrodollar guaranteed that the US dollar stayed the world currency. With Saudi Arabia now getting rid of their dollars and accepting yuan for their oil, they terminated this and the logical consequence is that countries have now a way out of the dollar.

Thats the logical effect of having a completely retarded leadership, as all countries in the west now have. Everything goes out of the window.

Right now more and more countries reduce their reserves of US dollar and instead go for for example for this funny chinese currency which for some reason seem to have two totally different names (Yuan and Reminbi).

In the long run I hope we will finally get the Bancor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor



Rancid wrote:Everyone that say's the dollar is dead... SEND ME YOUR DOLLARS!


We dont have any. Thats why its dead. :p
#15281109
The US dollar is dead, but I am collecting them as mementos from a different age. Send them to me.
#15281110
Everyone thinks they are George Soros but find out pretty quickly they are not.

@wat0n You misread, and so you shoukd apologi[…]

There is nothing wrong with me. What's wrong with[…]

Since you mentioned "content of people's char[…]

Note: Paying healthcare through taxes means we a[…]