- 07 Oct 2010 00:21
#13516645
For some reason missiles fascinate me, I see them as the sole future of all offensive warfare, ground, sea, air and space.
Anyway, regarding this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21#DF-2 ... ic_missile
Suppose a volley of 100 such missiles is heading toward your carrier battlegroup, each carrying multiple MARVs. You're not in effective F/A-18 range yet because these are targetting you from 3000km's away, moving at mach 10, arrival time from launch to interception at 12 minutes, the accuracy is within lethal parameters because these are mature, mid-range ballistic missiles, your fleet is moving rather slowly as a fleet does, there is no cover, your heat signatures are like ducks in the cold water. These missiles are capable of rapid course correction, communicate with each other in a swarm designating and parceling out the most succulent targets in real time, aided by small stealthy UAV's and sattelites. etc.
Firstly, you would need to establish air superiority using your carriers just to take out their (mobile) launchers, but you can't, because getting close enough to do that means being even more vulnerable to this weapon. What is left in terms of options when faced with this comparitively cheap anti-carrier weapon? Keep in mind your carrier cost $5 billion+ and thats not considering the supporting fleet, a volley of these missiles range in the tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. Even if you could intercept half of them (miraculous feat considering the speeds involved), you can't intercept all 100 mach 10 targets that are probably carrying decoys and are capable of rapid course changes.
Is this an effective area of denial weapon? Does even the possibility of this posing a credible risk make carriers obsolete in great power conflict because they cannot enter effective combat range? In short, is this the beginning of the end for the floating airport in terms of a great power conflict scenario, just as battleships were ended by aircraft carrying platforms?
Based on the above I say yes. I just do not see a credible, but more importantly cheap enough defence system on the horizon to negate this kind of weapon. It could always be overwhelmed by the cheaper and thus more numerous offensive force no matter how effective it was. Short of a star-trek-esque energy force-shield powered by anti-matter generators,
Smaller, more numerous carrier ships could still play an important part in future fleets, but supercarriers? I believe it's over. What say you?
Anyway, regarding this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21#DF-2 ... ic_missile
Suppose a volley of 100 such missiles is heading toward your carrier battlegroup, each carrying multiple MARVs. You're not in effective F/A-18 range yet because these are targetting you from 3000km's away, moving at mach 10, arrival time from launch to interception at 12 minutes, the accuracy is within lethal parameters because these are mature, mid-range ballistic missiles, your fleet is moving rather slowly as a fleet does, there is no cover, your heat signatures are like ducks in the cold water. These missiles are capable of rapid course correction, communicate with each other in a swarm designating and parceling out the most succulent targets in real time, aided by small stealthy UAV's and sattelites. etc.
Firstly, you would need to establish air superiority using your carriers just to take out their (mobile) launchers, but you can't, because getting close enough to do that means being even more vulnerable to this weapon. What is left in terms of options when faced with this comparitively cheap anti-carrier weapon? Keep in mind your carrier cost $5 billion+ and thats not considering the supporting fleet, a volley of these missiles range in the tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. Even if you could intercept half of them (miraculous feat considering the speeds involved), you can't intercept all 100 mach 10 targets that are probably carrying decoys and are capable of rapid course changes.
Is this an effective area of denial weapon? Does even the possibility of this posing a credible risk make carriers obsolete in great power conflict because they cannot enter effective combat range? In short, is this the beginning of the end for the floating airport in terms of a great power conflict scenario, just as battleships were ended by aircraft carrying platforms?
Based on the above I say yes. I just do not see a credible, but more importantly cheap enough defence system on the horizon to negate this kind of weapon. It could always be overwhelmed by the cheaper and thus more numerous offensive force no matter how effective it was. Short of a star-trek-esque energy force-shield powered by anti-matter generators,
Smaller, more numerous carrier ships could still play an important part in future fleets, but supercarriers? I believe it's over. What say you?