Will The Abbot Government be Re-Elected? - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14529459
Salohcin wrote:I think (most of) the coalitions problems were made for themselves back at the last election.

They made promises not to do a whole bunch of things they really wanted to do.

So now when they are trying address the issue of the structural deficit, not only are their actions a bit unpopular but the actions break promises.

This is something that a changed leader is going to suffer from too.


Its really a perfect storm of a number of interrelated factors: the lies - yes, but only in the context of making such a big deal of bringing honesty back into government; the unfair budget - not only does it fail societies' equity test, but it is so transparently bad economics ( eg short sighted attack on preventitve medical care and ignore the extensive rorting by the rich); then of course there's the leadership issue. And this issue wouldn't be an issue if not for the first two factors - the proof of this being in the mumblings of Abbott's own back bench, who have attacked policy direction at least as much as they have attacked Abbott's personal leadership style. And finally add to this the emergence of a new sort of paradigm in Australian politics - the one term governments. The defeat of the first term LNP government in QLD was simply phenomenal, and not even Newman's most ardent critics could have predicted it (and didn't - right until the votes started to be counted). It reflects a new cynicism in the electorate that has really caught everyone off guard. Of course, everyone knows the cynicism has existed for a long time, but there was an assumption that stable, predictable multi-term governments would persist regardless. That world view has come crashing down, and politicians are acutely aware of this - and are shitting themselves. Thats a major cause of the liberal backbench push to oust Abbott IMO - they can no longer rest on their laurels and assume mediocre government will not be punished.
#14531701
Latest Sky News discussion (with my MP for Hotham, Clare O'Neil!);

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=348619265332063

Also; http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/02/liberal-backbencher-reveals-abbott-governments-19bn-budget-gap

$A19 billion gap in coming budget admitted by backbencher. Whoops!
#14536587
Mental gymnastics of the Liberal Coalition Government, as late as sunday Minister Pyne was saying funding of science centres was "inextricably linked" today they are separated and the Research funding will continue regardless of the Education Reform/deregulation bill.

Mr Hockey tales about still perusing all budget measures and refuses to say co-payment for Medicare has been scrapped while the PM says it has.

The Government loudly proclaims assistance hand outs to industry is done and won't happen then the car industry assistance iOS handed to companies already declared to be leaving.

Mixed messages, sloppily ad hoc statements, the lack of real clear statements on policy.

deck chairs, titanic. And still with a opposition lacking in any bite, policies, charisma.
#14582921
I think it's starting to look likely Abbot could scrape back in,

Abbot and Co have got there lines all worked out. They are going to repeat a small collection of brief slogans repeatedly with slight variation. Boats, Carbon Tax, Budget repair, ALP can't stop the boats, ALP wants to tax and spend. etc.

There seems to be no end of the complete trip and lies that the Media seems to just accept from this Government. It's depressing.

And them there's the spineless and incompetent opposition.
#14582922
Abbot isn't reparing the budget though, he's increased the deficit and borrowing. As well as taxes (on the poor of course)
#14582935
pugsville is right though, it pretty much doesn't even matter if they're repairing the budget. What matters is perception and, whether based in reality or not, there is still strong backing for the idea that Abbott is trying to clean up a Labor mess. This is reinforced to varying degrees by most media sources, and even if he fails to reduce the deficit (which he will), the narrative probably will not be "Abbott's reckless years of debt and deficit," but rather "Labor's budget mess still hurts the country."

Whereas, if the parties were swapped, the story would be the reverse.

Those slogans are rolling out again similar to when Abbott was in a successful rhythm as Opposition Leader. I agree that it will probably be enough to get the Liberals across the line (that and Shorten being a poor alternative choice).
#14582936
But he's managed to do that and for nobody to particularly notice or much to made of it.

When Challenged on this Hockey went into some tripe about the forward estimates (effectively saying we'll deal with that latter) and denied that the budget deficit has been increased and the media basically left it at that.

The Failure of the Media to really do it's job in this regard is pretty bad. Lies and bad tripe. But so far it seems to be working.

The Abbot Governments complete and utter failure to achieve or even really seriously address the "budget repair" that they claimed was a massive crisis before the election, and in fact just badly lie that they have done anything at all to fix (the "heavy lifting" has been done apparently).

The public seems to have been fooled. It's like climate change their direct action policy is a complete waste of money but it's not seen as such.
#14582937
People still see Labor as a worse choice to handle the budget and think that they will re-introduce a carbon tax and the world will end. It will take time for that perception to fade, which unfortunately means that the Coalition won't be as thoroughly held to account as they should be. The media will pander to this.
#14586238
pugsville wrote:I think it's starting to look likely Abbot could scrape back in,

Abbot and Co have got there lines all worked out. They are going to repeat a small collection of brief slogans repeatedly with slight variation. Boats, Carbon Tax, Budget repair, ALP can't stop the boats, ALP wants to tax and spend. etc.

There seems to be no end of the complete trip and lies that the Media seems to just accept from this Government. It's depressing.

And them there's the spineless and incompetent opposition.


I'm not so pessimistic.

Firstly regarding the 'budget repair' mantra - I don't think the government is on a winner here - in fact I think they have capitulated on the issue and want to quietly ignore it. The last budget spendathon was a complete backflip and humiliating backdown from last year. They are now spending as much as labor at their worst - have doubled the budget deficit and have no serious strategy for getting it back to surplus. This all despite all their previous hysteria about a budget emergency.

Secondly, despite all the media rhetoric about Shorten being on the ropes, the libs miraculous new found unity and Abbott having a spring in his step - they are still in an election losing position in the polls. And even more worrying for the government - the polls have stagnated after a brief period moving from catastrophic to merely bad.

Ornate Placebo wrote:People still see Labor as a worse choice to handle the budget and think that they will re-introduce a carbon tax and the world will end. It will take time for that perception to fade, which unfortunately means that the Coalition won't be as thoroughly held to account as they should be. The media will pander to this.


And yet the polls are still consistently against Abbott - despite all the media hype about a turn-around, Abbott having a spring in his step etc. The voters themselves seem not to have got the memo. Maybe this government is just that bad.
#14586313
The polls aren't particularly devastating. Galaxy has the Coalition ahead by three points on primary vote (obviously trialling on two-party preferred, slightly), Shorten's approval ratings are at rock bottom (5 points lower than Abbott) and preferred PM is equal.

I'm still with pugsville on this one, Abbott will probably just scrape in despite the unpopularity - simply because the alternative is also very unpopular. It could well go either way though.
#14586490
Time will tell. My instincts tell me if Abbott was going to scrape through, the polls would be showing that already.

Also about the primary vote - the coalition has consistently been ahead on that for a long time time now. I think its because so many labor votes have been leached to the Greens. Interesting though that labor losing votes to the Greens doesn't make a difference to the TPP - labor still wins.
#14587596
All this poll calculation is true, but there is still some time to pass before even an early 2016 election. In that time some bad economic numbers could play their part.

I may be wrong, but I think a lot of aspirational Australians graviate LNP when it looks like they are personally cruising to affluence but as soon as things look potentially problematic the more supportive ALP gains some traction. This election is going to have this strange dynamic, in western Sydney especially, where uber-high property prices are making as many people feel poor as feel rich.
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