You can see the original post here; made December 27, 2017:
My Ten Predictions for 2018
1. The Mueller investigation will come to a climax, Trump will not be indicted, but someone close to him likely will, but not for collusion or treason, but on a process crime. Trump will finish the year in office and with a higher approval rating than he finished in 2017.
The Mueller investigation was announced to be coming to an end right before the midterms and have appeared to climax in the indictments made over the last couple of months. As predicted, they were of people close to the President on process crimes.
Furthermore, Trump's average approval for December 2018 was higher than his average approval for the month of December 2017, also as predicted, even though the exact number for the last week in December were exactly the same as last year. 10/10
https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/pre ... trump.aspx
2. The Republicans will make gains in the Senate, but lose seats in the House. There will not be a Democratic sweep of both houses, the Republicans will retain the Senate, the House may go either way.
I predicted this almost perfectly. The Senate was retained by the Republicans and even improved, but the House was lost. 10/10
3. The situation in Syria will stabilize and it will be clear by the end of 2018 that Assad will remain in power for the foreseeable future, and few people will care.
Absolutely correct per my prediction, the situation has stabilized and Trump is pulling U.S. troops out of the region and Assad remains in power......and few people really care. 10/10
4. The U.S. economy will continue to grow and prosper through 2018, this will give a sense of stability and tone down much of political hysteria we saw in 2017. Consumer confidence will remain high and U.S. housing prices will continue to rise.
This prediction has also been generally true; consumer confidence was high, we had record sales for Christmas, the best since 1999 and housing prices have continued to rise. In spite of the Stock Market hitting records earlier in the year, there has been some recent instability partly due to the trade war with China and rising interest rates caused by a Fed gone rogue; however, GDP grew this year and I was overall right-on.
I give myself an 10/10 on this one.
5. Brexit talks will continue throughout 2018 and will continue to be annoying, but it will be clear that Brexit will happen before the end of 2018. It will not be undone.
I felt better about this two months ago, as it appeared that the deal was done, until it was pulled from the Parliamentary floor after May's apparent betrayal of the Brexiteers with a shit deal.
Anyway, I give myself a 7.5/10 on this due to the recent instability in UK politics on this in recent weeks.
6. Trump will have at least one major legislative accomplishment in 2018, either infrastructure or the wall, but not much else, if anything else. NAFTA will come to an official end in 2018.
NAFTA did come to an official end in 2018, marking atleast one major policy accomplishment. Trump's prision reform was also a pretty big deal that no one is talking about. 10/10.
7. The whole sanctions/tough talk pattern with North Korea will continue much as it did in 2017, but I only predict this over what I feel is a solid 45% chance of war on the peninsula.
Trump actually made peace with North Korea and the process of disarmament has begun. I was way to pessimistic on this prediction from what actually transpired. 0/10
8. There will be continued extremist attacks in 2018, but less than in 2017 and "ISIS" well be term that is almost gone from our vocabulary and collective consciousness by the end of 2018.
Nailed this one on the fucking head. 10/10.
9. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in market value before the close of 2018.
Yeah....I was wrong on this, I thought the Bitcoin bubble was going to crash much harder, and it appears in my mind now that Ethereum will always be to Bitcoin was silver is to Gold. Oh well. 0/10.
10. We will see at least one major event of violence in the Spanish speaking world, either in Venezuela or Catalonia.
Yeah, the Catalonia thing has pretty much gone away with no one even remembering that it was even going on. Venezuela has been in a bad and worsening state all year, with violence and economic stability rampant, so I give myself a 2.5/10.
My Score out of 100 is 70.00%.
Not great, but not bad.
My Predictions for 2019
I am going to be even more bold in some of these.
1. The Mueller Probe will come out with an indictment against Trump for a process crime, or atleast may a suggestion to the Justice Department and or Congress along a similar or less-serious vein which will prompt talk of impeachment. Trump's approval will go up as a result.
2. Ruth Bader Ginsberg will die or be forced to step down in 2019, prompting a heated political climate. Trump will get to replace her in another heated Senate confirmation process; however, the nominee will sail in with more votes thanks to the increased Republican Majority.
For bonus points, I predict that Amy Coney Barret will replace her under the woman-for-woman paradigm, but will lead to mass protests nonetheless.
3. Joe Biden will become the obvious Democratic nominee by the close of the year with O'Rourke a distant second. The DNC overall field will look pretty shitty only exacerbating the internal struggles between the Neo-Liberal New-Deal Corporate Democrats of old and the emerging young New Left Social-Democrat/Democratic-Socialist SJW wing.
4. Trump will eviscerate his potential opponents on Twitter as he watches the primary debates for the DNC while commenting on them publicly. This will be an unprecedented phenomena in U.S. History increasing political engagement and setting Trump up as the real front-runner going into the election of 2020, both with match-up polls and his overall support. He'll have had a chance to peg everyone with a new catchy nick-name as well. This will become the main news front for 2019.
5. Trump will announce a major withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by end of year.
6. Brexit will happen, whether under an improved or shittier plan. Either way, a real resolution of the matter will take place in 2019.
7. There will be a major event of violence in the Spanish speaking world, probably in Venezuela.
8. The House Democrats and Trump will work together on an Infrastructure Bill before the end of the year; though I am unsure if they will get it passed in the Senate.
9. Major reform of Marijuana laws in the United States will continue either with the support of, or in spite of, President Trump.
10. Trump will strike a major trade deal with China effectively ending the trade war and causing stocks to soar. At the very least, tariff reform in China will take place to some degree and intellectual property rights will be secured for U.S. Companies.
A man is no less a slave because he is allowed to choose a new master once in a term of years (Spooner)
Esse Est Percipi Aut Percipere (Berkeley)