Beren wrote:If BoJo becomes leader the Brexit Party returns to where it came from while UKIP is already destroyed.
If BoJo becomes leader what is he going to do? BoJo could well command less support in the House of Commons than Teresa May. What's he going to do, try and leave without a deal? Renegotiate? Try and push through May's deal? Why do you think May is still in number 10? Because no one wanted to become leader till after she had completed at least the first stage of Brexit?
I think May really is going to go soon, unlike all the previous times stupid commentators told us she was doomed. But her would be successors are only prepared to move now because of desperation. And actually its not even now but after the EU election results. I could be wrong but I just don't see how a new Tory leader can just sit out the next three years on the current parliamentary arithmetic, till an election becomes necessary. What will this new leader be able to deliver in parliament that Mrs May couldn't. May was at least respected by the parliamentary Tory party when she took over. Boris is widely hated and despised by his parliamentary colleagues before he's even got the top job.
Some top Tory MPs must be thinking let Boris have a go, cause a disaster and then he can be replaced quicker than May. It seem to me the new Tory leader must go for an early autumn General Election. If they get a good majority they can push through a hard Brexit. If they remain in number 10 in a similar or further weakened position, they then have cover to not deliver Brexit. If they lose number 10, these unusual circumstances may allow them to stay as leader.
If BoJo is leader and there's an autumn election, the Brexit party may well not stand against him or ERG members, but they will have a good case for standing against soft Tory candidates. I think a lot could depend on what Farage wants. Does he want to be deputy Prime Minister? I mean I doubt he really wants to be PM any more than Trump wanted to be President.