Netanyahu: Iran had Nukes + If i'm elected, Jordan Valley is "officially" ours...... - Page 3 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15033315
anasawad wrote:They are.
Most Jordanians are tribal.
The Palestinians in Jordan wont be allowed to take power.


ِAn Arabic source, but nonetheless, useful; From Al-Jazeera quick report.


Tribes are small nations. Thus, they are subject to the same conditions and grievances that befall all states. Poverty doesn't seem to be being solved by the tribes so they may lose legitimacy and divisions start. They may already have started.

Tribalism is not as strong as it was. Your tribe is just an exception. And you're Persian too.
#15033318
anasawad wrote:Most of the poverty is focused in Amman amongst Palestinian Jordanians. i.e Palestinians with Jordanian passports. (48 refugees)

Jordan will no become an Anarchist state, nor a socialist one to that matter.


Then why mention it as a reason for Jordanians revolting?

Furthermore, I highly doubt that it's only Palestinian Jordanians.

http://www.jordantimes.com/news/local/t ... 0%94-study

Here's an English source on the matter that isn't Western. Palestinians may be like blacks in the US where they are more likely to be in poverty but they don't represent a majority of people in poverty.

Also anarchism isn't only attractive to the working class. It isn't like socialism.
#15033320
For 2 reasons:
1- Jordan currently has around 10 million people in it, half of them are not citizens and are in desperate poverty.
2- The tribes are already pissed off at the queen and the royal family in general, so an uprising will swiftly turn into a revolt once the tribes join in.
That uprising is most likely going to start with the poor class. But that doesn't mean they'll take control, the tribes would.


Also, look up the population stats on the Royal geographic center of Jordan. (official government source)
There are around 3.5 million Palestinians in Jordan.
Some are citizens, some are not.


And anarchism isn't attractive to most people.
#15033354
anasawad wrote:For 2 reasons:
1- Jordan currently has around 10 million people in it, half of them are not citizens and are in desperate poverty.


Exactly. Blacks form the disproportionate amount of people in poverty but that doesn't mean that whites aren't equally having a nad time.

And I highly doubt it's half of the population.

2- The tribes are already pissed off at the queen and the royal family in general, so an uprising will swiftly turn into a revolt once the tribes join in.
That uprising is most likely going to start with the poor class. But that doesn't mean they'll take control, the tribes would.


That's only if the poor class isn't organized or class consciousness. And given that I exist, clearly this won't be the case.

Also, look up the population stats on the Royal geographic center of Jordan. (official government source)
There are around 3.5 million Palestinians in Jordan.
Some are citizens, some are not.


Then half the population in poverty can't be migrants.

And anarchism isn't attractive to most people.


You don't know anything about anarchism period. It's unattractive to you because:

A. You don't know anything about it.

B. You're a nationalist with your own ideology.

C. You're noueavu riche and a bourgeois. Given your class position of course you don't find it that attractive. The extent of social reform that you are willing to accept ends with women in miniskirts.

Furthermore, you're a westernized bourgeois Arab which means you're chasing European standards of modernity as well. Culturally you're no more different than the rest of the globalist capitalist class.

Of course it doesn't appeal to you.
#15033360
@Palmyrene
And I highly doubt it's half of the population.

Out of a little over 10 million people, there are around 2 million Syrian refugees, around 1 million Egyptian and Iraqi workers, another half a million of various nationalities, primarily low skilled labor, and a couple of million of Palestinians.

That's only if the poor class isn't organized or class consciousness. And given that I exist, clearly this won't be the case.

The tribes have organized armies, no need for further explanation.

You don't know anything about anarchism period. It's unattractive to you because:

A. You don't know anything about it.

No need to go into the details when the basic premise itself is shit.

B. You're a nationalist with your own ideology.

I'm more of a patriot than a nationalist.

C. You're noueavu riche and a bourgeois. Given your class position of course you don't find it that attractive.

Bla bla bla.

The extent of social reform that you are willing to accept ends with women in miniskirts.

Ooh look, the classic Islamic bullshit.
The social reforms I push for is for full liberty of all individuals; if a woman wanted to wear a miniskirt, then so it be, that's not of anyone's concern other than herself.

you're a westernized bourgeois Arab which means you're chasing European standards of modernity as well.

Believing in liberty and freedom is hardly "westernized".
I'm not an Arab.
And bourgeois hardly applies to me.


But no worries, your ad-homs wont do much to make anarchism look good.
It was shit and it will continue to be a shit ideology.
Eitherway, keep spewing bullshit about the middle east, it is clear for everyone that you don't know much, if anything, regarding middle eastern politics.
#15033364
anasawad wrote:Jordan is tribal.
The most likely scenarios are the king being replaced by prince Hamzeh in an internal coup, or a violent revolution seeing the northern tribes and clans taking over by force.


Thanks for your interesting insights into Jordanian life.

What would you prefer happen in Jordan?

As you alluded, it's hard for us fick westerneers to get info about Jordan. I've read 1-2 things in AJ about it, but nothing too deeply informative.
#15033368
@Presvias
What would you prefer happen in Jordan?

My preferences are hardly relevant.
However, if we were to take the most peaceful solution with the least amount of bloodshed, a confederate system is preferable for Jordan,and many middle eastern countries, with Amman being a federal city.

I'd say prince Hamzeh taking over in an internal coup is the best way forwad for Jordan for several reasons:

Prince Hamzeh was the rightful heir to king Hussein, and his father, king hussein, worked to build relations with all the tribal princes and leaders, as such he'll be able to develop the country and enrich it in a much more significant fashion than the current king.
Essentially, he was trained to become the king of Jordan, unlike king Abdullah who, when first took power, barely even knew how to speak Arabic.

Another point is that prince Hamzeh is a true blood Jordanian who's not only grew up in the midst of the various families and leaders of Jordan, but also is married to and have kids with princesses of Arab royal blood, so he has a legitimate claim and support to power.
Compare and contrast, king Abdullah who didn't even grow up in Jordan and took hem years after receiving power to meet with tribal leaders, and his wife who isn't even Jordanian but a Palestinian who grew up in Kuwait.
Not only neither were accepted as legitimate leaders from the start, but the Queen took over everything and has more interest in enriching herself and family more than actually building the country.
So...they're, at best, disliked; Atleast the Queen.

And finally, an internal coup with prince Hamzeh taking over and uniting all the factions will ensure that no power vacuum is created.

If a general revolt took place, and the monarchy was deposed overnight, what you can expect is a struggle for rule between the tribes, primarily Al-Ghazawi and Al-Idwan tribes who both have royal blood and both did rule princedoms in what is now known as Jordan before the Hashemites; So a North-South conflict, potentially full blown war if Banni Hassan and Bani Sakher tribes (the biggest in Jordan) took sides.
And you also have the Palestinian issue, primarily that there are millions of Palestinians in Amman who would probably try to establish their own state in Amman and its suburbs in a power vacuum, and considering:
1- the historical context (black september).
2-the fact that tensions are still alive till this day over these issues in Jordan ( even football teams are divided on this front).
3- the fact that Jordanians already saw what the Palestinians did in Lebanon.
4- That the queen and her tribe (Al-yaseen) are Palestinians.
5- finally, the fact that the Jordanian tribes are, primarily, bedouin tribes.
We can expect a retaliation direct at the Palestinians from the Jordanian tribes at a scale rarely seen before, so casualties in the 100s of thousands; as if a war broke out, you can expect the desert tribes to go in and massacre the Palestinians in large numbers.

Added the Syrian refugees, whom already have tons of Islamists among them and will probably try to make a move, and considering the Jordanians and Syrians had wars before, never really liked eachother, and that there are current hostilities between Jordanians and Syrian refugees, you can expect the bloodshed to reach those very quickly too.

The best way for Jordan is for the Queen to be removed, the king relieved of his authority and prince Hamzeh, the rightful king, replacing hem.
Because no one wants Al-Ghazawi and Al-Idwan royal families competing for power again, and no one wants the Palestinains to start their own state inside of Jordan, nor Syrian Islamists to run amock in the midst of all of this.

Also, on the side, 2 points:
-if a power vacuum did happen and the Palestinians went with their "state inside a state" policy again, you can expect Israel to also be involved.
- If the tribes saw themselves as being overwhelmed in such scenario, they'll simply call for reinforcements from other tribes so we'll be seeing a breakdown in national borders throughout the region as tribal armies cross over from other nations to support the Jordanian tribes.
Banni Sa'ad, Al-Rayyan, Al-Neitte, the Iron desert tribes,etc are all related and allied to the Jordanian tribes, so they'll be sending help.




Side note:
The claims that "poverty" will lead a revolt that will destroy the Jordanian tribes is just bullshit.
In the middle east in general, poverty amongst tribes are different from poverty amongst non-tribal populations.
In Jordan, you can accurately say that the majority of the population is poor, including tribals.
But a tribal person who is poor is someone with their own house or apartment (owned), never lacks food or basic services, have everything they need, but they just can't afford a brand new Iphone.
A non-tribal poor person is someone who struggles to get food.
So while both are considered poor, there clearly is a big difference.

And the reason why these claims about how a new ideology will somehow convert the tribes is just ridiculous.
People in the middle east have seen horrible things, wars, destruction, and suffering that lasted for centuries; They know how bad things can go, so when someone has a tribe that, through a system of wealth distribution and management, ensures he\she will never go hungry or go homeless and that they'll always be able to work and make a living, they'll never abandon that for a "maybe" with a new ideological system.
Best case scenario, they adopt some policies into their own system.
#15033379
anasawad wrote:@Palmyrene
Out of a little over 10 million people, there are around 2 million Syrian refugees, around 1 million Egyptian and Iraqi workers, another half a million of various nationalities, primarily low skilled labor, and a couple of million of Palestinians.


Based on what you've said, the amount of non-citizens would be 4,500,000 out of 10 million which is not a third of the Jordanian population and thus does not even compare the full amount of Palestinians.

The tribes have organized armies, no need for further explanation.


Armies are composed of people and generally the upper class sends the lower classes to war. If you have an organized lower class you have no armies.

No need to go into the details when the basic premise itself is shit.


You don't know the basic premise. All you have are assumptions about what is not what it actually is.

I'm more of a patriot than a nationalist.


You're definitely a nationalist.

Ooh look, the classic Islamic bullshit.


?

None of what I'm saying is Islamic.

The social reforms I push for is for full liberty of all individuals; if a woman wanted to wear a miniskirt, then so it be, that's not of anyone's concern other than herself.


If you want full liberty for all individuals you can't have a state. States remove individual freedoms, they don't protect them.

Believing in liberty and freedom is hardly "westernized".
I'm not an Arab.
And bourgeois hardly applies to me.


You don't believe in actual freedom and liberty. Like I said, your support social reforms only go so far.

Also I never said you were Arab and you kinda are a bourgeois based on what you've said.

But no worries, your ad-homs wont do much to make anarchism look good.
It was shit and it will continue to be a shit ideology.


You don't even know anything about it at all. You don't even know the basic premises.

Honestly you need to chill out.

Eitherway, keep spewing bullshit about the middle east, it is clear for everyone that you don't know much, if anything, regarding middle eastern politics.


:lol:

None of what I said was bullshit. You're just in denial of the actual social dynamics behind the systems you participate in.
Last edited by Palmyrene on 11 Sep 2019 22:44, edited 1 time in total.
#15033380
@anasawad

Ooo I know who this is directed at ;)

Do you love me that much?

The claims that "poverty" will lead a revolt that will destroy the Jordanian tribes is just bullshit.


Well that's not my claim. Tribes, like all states, operate under a class system.

In the middle east in general, poverty amongst tribes are different from poverty amongst non-tribal populations.
In Jordan, you can accurately say that the majority of the population is poor, including tribals.
But a tribal person who is poor is someone with their own house or apartment (owned), never lacks food or basic services, have everything they need, but they just can't afford a brand new Iphone.
A non-tribal poor person is someone who struggles to get food.
So while both are considered poor, there clearly is a big difference.


I'm not entirely sure that this is the case at all. I've met poor tribal people in Egypt that couldn't afford food. I've also heard of a Jordanian tribal who was ostracized and lives in a shantytown.

You don't really seem that convincing and this seems to only apply to the big tribes not the smaller ones.

And the reason why these claims about how a new ideology will somehow convert the tribes is just ridiculous.


Not really when you consider the actual status of many people in the Middle East.

Not all poor people are migrants or something.

People in the middle east have seen horrible things, wars, destruction, and suffering that lasted for centuries; They know how bad things can go, so when someone has a tribe that, through a system of wealth distribution and management, ensures he\she will never go hungry or go homeless and that they'll always be able to work and make a living, they'll never abandon that for a "maybe" with a new ideological system.
Best case scenario, they adopt some policies into their own system.


1. You don't know anything about that "new ideological system". Arguably it isn't even ideological.

2. That is definitely not the case for all tribals.
#15033387
BiBi has gone nuts to hold to power. Honestly, it is time for the Israeli people to kick him out of office and put him right in to a jail cell for corruption and other morally questionable endeavours. Basically use him a scape goat and roast him in front of the world. Will make Israelis life a lot easier. As a leader he should understand...
#15033390
JohnRawls wrote:BiBi has gone nuts to hold to power. Honestly, it is time for the Israeli people to kick him out of office and put him right in to a jail cell for corruption and other morally questionable endeavours. Basically use him a scape goat and roast him in front of the world. Will make Israelis life a lot easier. As a leader he should understand...


Israelis elected him and he came from the Israeli population. Israel's culture is rotten to the core. You need to change that.
#15033392
Palmyrene wrote:Israelis elected him and he came from the Israeli population. Israel's culture is rotten to the core. You need to change that.


No. Corruption happens everywhere and you need to punish it. His other policies were very pro-Israel and pissed off 95% of the world. So blaming all sins on him and roasting him kinda solves some foreign relations for Israel. So why not?
#15033395
@Palmyrene
Based on what you've said, the amount of non-citizens would be 4,500,000 out of 10 million which is not a third of the Jordanian population and thus does not even compare the full amount of Palestinians.

2m+1m+0.5m+2m = 5.5m
Over half.

Armies are composed of people and generally the upper class sends the lower classes to war. If you have an organized lower class you have no armies.

:knife:

If you want full liberty for all individuals you can't have a state. States remove individual freedoms, they don't protect them.

States protect liberties. Anarchy opens the room for any one to take'em.

I'm not entirely sure that this is the case at all. I've met poor tribal people in Egypt that couldn't afford food. I've also heard of a Jordanian tribal who was ostracized and lives in a shantytown

Ooh bullshit.
The tribes in Egypt are in areas like The Sa'ied, where no homelessness exists and almost fully self sufficient in food production.
And you've never been to Egypt, let alone go to the tribal areas.
A 16-year-old went all around the middle east, met everyone, and discussed politics and tribal states with people all over. Give me a break.

You don't really seem that convincing and this seems to only apply to the big tribes not the smaller ones.

The tribes in Jordan are either big or essentially vassals of big ones.

1. You don't know anything about that "new ideological system". Arguably it isn't even ideological.

2. That is definitely not the case for all tribals.

If it wasn't, then the US and the USSR would've gained favor long ago.
#15033397
anasawad wrote:@Palmyrene
2m+1m+0.5m+2m = 5.5m
Over half.


1. You said a couple of million.

2. Like I said, similar to blacks.

:knife:


Furthermore, tribes have historically been key players in revolutionary action and organization and are just as influenced by ideology as any other social system. Tribes aren't small nations, their beasts of their own. In many ways, they parallel the political fragmentation of resembles that of the American political system which itself is organized into tribes.

States protect liberties. Anarchy opens the room for any one to take'em.


No, it doesn't. You only have to look at history to disprove this. Even democracies are susceptible to authoritarianism and liberal democracy is especially suspectible to fascism.

Furthermore anarchy doesn't mean "chaos". It has organization and even after discussing this with you, you still hold onto this outdated notion. Even if you disagree with me, everything I've said to you regarding anarchism indicates some form of organization. You may call that a state or whatever (it's not but I digress) but it's not chaos.

Ooh bullshit.
The tribes in Egypt are in areas like The Sa'ied, where no homelessness exists and almost fully self sufficient in food production.
And you've never been to Egypt, let alone go to the tribal areas.
A 16-year-old went all around the middle east, met everyone, and discussed politics and tribal states with people all over. Give me a break.


I've talked to an Egyptian tribal on the internet. The same with the Lebanese girl who said that if Israel took over Lebanon they would have better internet.

How do you think I know all of this? You think I walked there?

The tribes in Jordan are either big or essentially vassals of big ones.


That doesn't explain the great amounts of poverty there though.

If it wasn't, then the US and the USSR would've gained favor long ago.


Except that the US and USSR were states and imperialist ones at that. Anarchism isn't a state nor an imperialist power. It's an ideology. The only time anarchism "spreads" is through people adopting it as a form of social organization.

At it's heart, anarchism is just a simple critique and if people adopt that critique and comprehend it, then they are anarchists. They may be scared and think hierarchy is necessary or mistakenly adopt hierarchial modes of organization but at their core they're still anarchists.
#15033398
JohnRawls wrote:No. Corruption happens everywhere and you need to punish it. His other policies were very pro-Israel and pissed off 95% of the world. So blaming all sins on him and roasting him kinda solves some foreign relations for Israel. So why not?


Because the culture is corrupt. That's why they won't do it. It's built upon occupation and the glorification of suffering and oppression.

Furthermore, expecting millions of people to single mindedly do a specific thing just because you said so on an internet forum is rather ridiculous.
#15033399
@Palmyrene
1. You said a couple of million.

A couple of million Palestinian non citizens.

Furthermore, tribes have historically been key players in revolutionary action and organization and are just as influenced by ideology as any other social system. Tribes aren't small nations, their beasts of their own. In many ways, they parallel the political fragmentation of resembles that of the American political system which itself is organized into tribes.

They're also not stupid.

I've talked to an Egyptian tribal on the internet. The same with the Lebanese girl who said that if Israel took over Lebanon they would have better internet.

How do you think I know all of this? You think I walked there?

Have you seen what rural Egypt looks like? I doubt it.
But either way, considering that it goes against both public stats and my personal experience, I wont buy it.
Although I've never been to Egypt rather only met some Banni Sa'ad people in Zarqa in Jordan, based on the system they're living under, they have a very successful wealth distribution. And the stats prove it as their areas have no homelessness and the lowest rates of poverty.
So is the case with most tribal areas in Egypt.

That doesn't explain the great amounts of poverty there though.

1- They don't take care of everyone, just their own.
2- Ask the Queen, she bankrupted the country.
#15033400
anasawad wrote:@Palmyrene
A couple of million Palestinian non citizens.


Yeah I know. You said a couple. That's the emphasis here.

They're also not stupid.


Exactly. Which is why their members would rather organize themselves non-hierarchial and transcend tribal relations (as Iranian tribes did during the revolution).

In fact, alot of tribal institutions and ideas would be really useful in explaining anarchism and what it is.

Have you seen what rural Egypt looks like? I doubt it.


Yeah I haven't obviously.

But either way, considering that it goes against both public stats and my personal experience, I wont buy it.
Although I've never been to Egypt rather only met some Banni Sa'ad people in Zarqa in Jordan, based on the system they're living under, they have a very successful wealth distribution. And the stats prove it as their areas have no homelessness and the lowest rates of poverty.
So is the case with most tribal areas in Egypt.


Then explain the poor tribal dude.

1- They don't take care of everyone, just their own.
2- Ask the Queen, she bankrupted the country.


If 62% of the population is in a tribe and thus taken care of then they shouldn't have such large amounts of poverty.

Nothing you're saying adds up.
#15033403
Palmyrene wrote:If 62% of the population is in a tribe and thus taken care of then they shouldn't have such large amounts of poverty.

Nothing you're saying adds up.


With respect, tribal populations do tend to look after their own but only in certain ways, they're all different...and such doesn't mean they're not poor.

Furthermore, Islamic charity & zakat in certain countries means you can often turn up at a stranger's door or friend's house and say 'feed me brother' and you will be helped - not everywhere you understand, but it exists in plenty of places, and again it's not uniform in any one country. (I'm not sure if any of that is relevant to the Jordanian tribes ans refers to though, but I suspect it probably is - almsgiving is highly encouraged amongst some Muslims)

That's not my anecdotal opinion gathered from the internet, it's what multiple Islamic friends from varying countries have told me face to face about how life differs from life in the west.

I was an anarchist when I was 19; you're 16. There are many aspects of anarchism that are fascinating both historically as well as philosophically, but I do not believe it is necessarily the most practicable system going..as borne out by the Spanish in Catalunya and the Makhnovishchina.

With the utmost of respect, your life experiences are probably not as broad as ours; and the other poster is right...you do come across as not fully understanding the ME's very differing cultures and tribes.

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