What would you prefer happen in Jordan?
My preferences are hardly relevant.
However, if we were to take the most peaceful solution with the least amount of bloodshed, a confederate system is preferable for Jordan,and many middle eastern countries, with Amman being a federal city.
I'd say prince Hamzeh taking over in an internal coup is the best way forwad for Jordan for several reasons:
Prince Hamzeh was the rightful heir to king Hussein, and his father, king hussein, worked to build relations with all the tribal princes and leaders, as such he'll be able to develop the country and enrich it in a much more significant fashion than the current king.
Essentially, he was trained to become the king of Jordan, unlike king Abdullah who, when first took power, barely even knew how to speak Arabic.
Another point is that prince Hamzeh is a true blood Jordanian who's not only grew up in the midst of the various families and leaders of Jordan, but also is married to and have kids with princesses of Arab royal blood, so he has a legitimate claim and support to power.
Compare and contrast, king Abdullah who didn't even grow up in Jordan and took hem years after receiving power to meet with tribal leaders, and his wife who isn't even Jordanian but a Palestinian who grew up in Kuwait.
Not only neither were accepted as legitimate leaders from the start, but the Queen took over everything and has more interest in enriching herself and family more than actually building the country.
So...they're, at best, disliked; Atleast the Queen.
And finally, an internal coup with prince Hamzeh taking over and uniting all the factions will ensure that no power vacuum is created.
If a general revolt took place, and the monarchy was deposed overnight, what you can expect is a struggle for rule between the tribes, primarily Al-Ghazawi and Al-Idwan tribes who both have royal blood and both did rule princedoms in what is now known as Jordan before the Hashemites; So a North-South conflict, potentially full blown war if Banni Hassan and Bani Sakher tribes (the biggest in Jordan) took sides.
And you also have the Palestinian issue, primarily that there are millions of Palestinians in Amman who would probably try to establish their own state in Amman and its suburbs in a power vacuum, and considering:
1- the historical context (black september).
2-the fact that tensions are still alive till this day over these issues in Jordan ( even football teams are divided on this front).
3- the fact that Jordanians already saw what the Palestinians did in Lebanon.
4- That the queen and her tribe (Al-yaseen) are Palestinians.
5- finally, the fact that the Jordanian tribes are, primarily, bedouin tribes.
We can expect a retaliation direct at the Palestinians from the Jordanian tribes at a scale rarely seen before, so casualties in the 100s of thousands; as if a war broke out, you can expect the desert tribes to go in and massacre the Palestinians in large numbers.
Added the Syrian refugees, whom already have tons of Islamists among them and will probably try to make a move, and considering the Jordanians and Syrians had wars before, never really liked eachother, and that there are current hostilities between Jordanians and Syrian refugees, you can expect the bloodshed to reach those very quickly too.
The best way for Jordan is for the Queen to be removed, the king relieved of his authority and prince Hamzeh, the rightful king, replacing hem.
Because no one wants Al-Ghazawi and Al-Idwan royal families competing for power again, and no one wants the Palestinains to start their own state inside of Jordan, nor Syrian Islamists to run amock in the midst of all of this.
Also, on the side, 2 points:
-if a power vacuum did happen and the Palestinians went with their "state inside a state" policy again, you can expect Israel to also be involved.
- If the tribes saw themselves as being overwhelmed in such scenario, they'll simply call for reinforcements from other tribes so we'll be seeing a breakdown in national borders throughout the region as tribal armies cross over from other nations to support the Jordanian tribes.
Banni Sa'ad, Al-Rayyan, Al-Neitte, the Iron desert tribes,etc are all related and allied to the Jordanian tribes, so they'll be sending help.
The claims that "poverty" will lead a revolt that will destroy the Jordanian tribes is just bullshit.
In the middle east in general, poverty amongst tribes are different from poverty amongst non-tribal populations.
In Jordan, you can accurately say that the majority of the population is poor, including tribals.
But a tribal person who is poor is someone with their own house or apartment (owned), never lacks food or basic services, have everything they need, but they just can't afford a brand new Iphone.
A non-tribal poor person is someone who struggles to get food.
So while both are considered poor, there clearly is a big difference.
And the reason why these claims about how a new ideology will somehow convert the tribes is just ridiculous.
People in the middle east have seen horrible things, wars, destruction, and suffering that lasted for centuries; They know how bad things can go, so when someone has a tribe that, through a system of wealth distribution and management, ensures he\she will never go hungry or go homeless and that they'll always be able to work and make a living, they'll never abandon that for a "maybe" with a new ideological system.
Best case scenario, they adopt some policies into their own system.