Puffer Fish wrote:If you throw a dice 6 times, the probability of getting a six at least one of those times is 33.5%.
The equation to find that probability is:
where in this case
( 1 - 1/6 )^6
Nice, but how does that contradict what I said ?
Ter wrote:(like throwing a dice 6 times will not give you a 100% probability of getting a six)
Anyway, back to you...
So a 2% probability of a false positive gives an 8% probability of a false positive is n = 4 ?
That is what you said and it is wrong, sorry.
Puffer Fish wrote:You'll remember at least one of those men in the story got into trouble for "slightly elevated levels of testosterone".
That's obviously not so very reliable. Especially for a bodybuilder, since having huge muscles and intensely working out by itself tends to raise natural testosterone levels slightly beyond normal levels.
Modern doping tests can differentiate between naturally occurring nandrolone and the one present because of steroid doping.
see https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/ ... n-athletes
Puffer Fish wrote:It would also not be too difficult for the police lab to accidentally make a mistake, and get two of the samples mixed up, or if the police had some reason for intentionally wanting to frame someone.
This is extremely unlikely.
Every sample that is collected is clearly marked and the identity of the person tested is checked twice.
For the testing Authority to want to frame someone that is another absurd statement from you. You are entering the twilight zone of conspiracy theories now.
Puffer Fish wrote:There needs to be more reliable suspicion for requiring them to undergo these tests rather than just "how they look", and if the competition requires them to submit to tests (which is fair enough), those tests should not be used for legal purposes.
Of course there are legal repercussions because doping is against the law.