The Next UK PM everybody... - Page 43 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15048107
Vanasalus wrote:New Survation poll results are out.



The gap between Tories and Labor is down to 6%.

As one twitter comment hilariously yet rightly put: Corbyn eats six point leads for breakfast.

:lol:


Are you forgetting that Farange said that he won't challenge the Tories. So basically add the Brexit vote to the Tories. There is only two leave leaning parties. And one of them just tapped out.
#15048124
JohnRawls wrote:Are you forgetting that Farange said that he won't challenge the Tories. So basically add the Brexit vote to the Tories. There is only two leave leaning parties. And one of them just tapped out.


Well, yes, we may assume majority of the Brexit party votes in those 317 constituencies will go to Tories, but not all of them.

Plus, we don't know the effect of Tory-Brexit party alliance on moderate remainer Tories. Will they still vote Tory? Or will they not bother voting.

And finally, what will be the effect of Tory-Brexit party alliance on Liberal Party voters? Will they be more inclined to vote tactically?

As you see, there are so many unknowns in the equation.

And, in a country, where people are divided 50/50 on Brexit, those unknowns have the tendency of neutralizing each other's effects.

The party, which addresses the concerns of the %100 of the population, not the 50%, will win the election.
#15048387
skinster wrote:The last election between Corbyn and May should've made it clear that the polls were off AF, but here we are. :D



The polls had May up 25 points, Johnson is only up 10. plus Johnson can't debate for shit.
#15049790
:lol: What an amazing victory for the establishments, this election is!

You really couldn't make this stuff up. Nearly seven years on from Cameron's referendum pledge and we have a Brexit election that has reduced to a binary choice between a Remainer pretending to be a Leaver and a Leaver pretending to be a Remainer. Its a joy to watch Boris and Jezza treating the electorate with such utter and total contempt. A contempt that it is certainly well deserved. Boris Johnson is the Paladin for the Corporate establishment. Jezza is the representative of the Cultural Marxist establishment.

After the 2010 election we saw a wonderful coming together of the 2 establishments to defend the two party system and defeat UKIP. David Cameron wanted to defend the Tories electoral monopoly on the right. The Marxist left were determined to stop the emergence of a genuine anti non European immigration party. The First Past the Post system is not rocket science, to win you just need to split the other side. Time and again we see that the left prefers Conservative Party dominance to the emergence of a genuine anti non European immigration electoral force that we see in most European countries.

In the nineteen seventies the left came out on to the streets to ensure Margaret Thatcher's victory by violently suppressing the National Front and making them look like thugs. In the nineties and early 2000s we saw it with the BNP and then the same thing with UKIP. Nigel Farage totally capitulated to the Corporate and Cultural Marxist establishments with the establishment of the Brexit Party. There was no doubt that Farage was told, tow the line or else.

Else when the so called anti fascist thugs come for you and your family, don't expect the police to be around to protect you. Its like in theory public figures are free to criticise Islam, but as Salmond Rushdie can testify don't expect the state to protect you. When Charlie Hebdo were slaughtered the establishment could barely conceal their joy at their murders. Any doubt about where the establishment's sympathies lay were put to rest by inviting the Saudi ambassador to the remembrance march.

We see something similar in the US, another 2 party system State. The Republican establishment love ANTIFA. Here again the left would rather put with Republican party rule than see the Republican party spilt by a genuine anti immigration party.
#15050031
skinster wrote:https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1196529466987761665?s=20


The "making the richest pay 'their fair share'" part is what I doubt most. Is Corbyn smart enough to carry out this manifesto without the richest just run away with their "loot"? Better be more specific about this, as the richest aren't the richest for no reason!
#15050113
Image

Seems like a great manifesto. Looking at the figures nationisation will £200 billion, which is the exact cost of Trident. So as long at that project gets binned after the election, nobody can say nationisation isn't affordable. Looks like Labour has my vote.
Last edited by B0ycey on 21 Nov 2019 21:36, edited 1 time in total.
#15050677
Anyone who thinks the terrorists friend comrade Corbyn will be the next British Prime Minister, is as barking as he is. The OP puts Labour just 6 points behind the Tories. That was a Survation online poll, in a Survation phone poll the result was Tories 41% Labour 30%, and some pollsters say the gap is much larger.

Lets have the whole story...https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623yacht ... scorecard/
#15050678
Red Rackham wrote:Anyone who thinks the terrorists friend comrade Corbyn will be the next British Prime Minister, is as barking as he is. The OP puts Labour just 6 points behind the Tories. That was a Survation online poll, in a Survation phone poll the result was Tories 41% Labour 30%, and some pollsters say the gap is much larger.

Lets have the whole story...https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623yacht ... scorecard/


The problem is that those voters are not really Tory voters but Brexit party voters. If this was a fair competition then Brexit would campaign but Farange is an idealist of sorts so he is not competing which centralizes all of the leave vote under the tories. So both of you are correct to a degree. Yes the difference between Tories and Labour is indeed couple of points. But you have to add Brexit party 10% on top of that if not more. So the disparity grows. And that is a good scenario where not all Brexit voters vote for Tories for some reason. In reality it will add 10-15% to their overall ratings. Hence the Tories stand right now at about 40-45% of the vote.

Basically this means that Tories are probably going to win around 330 to 360 seats if nothing changes and as is right now. What i mean by this is that there is no chance for labour to win without some kind of a deal between them and the Lib Dems at the minimum. If they want to win for 100% then they will have to make a deal with SNP + Lib Dems + Labour.

Yes Lib Dems eat in to Tory and Labour vote. The problem is that they eat in to Labour vote too much since they are a remain party while Corbyn basically states his neutrality.

At the start of this, I thought that Lib Dems might have a chance. Well, they don't. Simply put they don't have the money to compete vs Tories and Labour. Nor do they have the reach. The media are not taking them seriously so most of the debates will be for Corbyn and Johnson. Its complicated. There are some token debates but mostly its Johnson and Corbyn.

But as of now, Tories will get an absolute majority. This absolute majority can't be challenged since the remain vote is split between Labour and Lib Dems mostly. Lib Dems + Labour is probably 80% certain to beat Tories under any scenario. Lib Dems + SNP + Labour are 100% certain to beat tories under any scenario. But those alliances are not going to happen.

If nothing changes, Johnson is PM with absolute majority without any need for any alliances or cooperation between parties. Can he push Brexit under those conditions? God knows because we come to the realisation that Brexit is no longer as popular as it once was. The Brexit situation shifted to around 45-55 for the people who care still. So remain has a 10 point lead. By the end of the election, disenfranchisement will lead it to 60-40 if Johnson wins with an absolute majority. Basically the system is disfunctional right now and doesn't really represent what the overall population stands for. Who is to blame? Well the Lib Dems i guess. It was okay with a 2 party system but 3 way it gets too complicated.
#15050683
You claim, even though the referendum result has been utterly ignored, that Brexit isn't as popular as it once was! This is mind boggling. What manner of democracy are we talking about? If the forthcoming election didn't go the way I hope and want it to, do you think it would be right for me to campaign against the result and demand another election?..
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