Red Rackham wrote:Anyone who thinks the terrorists friend comrade Corbyn will be the next British Prime Minister, is as barking as he is. The OP puts Labour just 6 points behind the Tories. That was a Survation online poll, in a Survation phone poll the result was Tories 41% Labour 30%, and some pollsters say the gap is much larger.
Lets have the whole story...https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623yacht ... scorecard/
The problem is that those voters are not really Tory voters but Brexit party voters. If this was a fair competition then Brexit would campaign but Farange is an idealist of sorts so he is not competing which centralizes all of the leave vote under the tories. So both of you are correct to a degree. Yes the difference between Tories and Labour is indeed couple of points. But you have to add Brexit party 10% on top of that if not more. So the disparity grows. And that is a good scenario where not all Brexit voters vote for Tories for some reason. In reality it will add 10-15% to their overall ratings. Hence the Tories stand right now at about 40-45% of the vote.
Basically this means that Tories are probably going to win around 330 to 360 seats if nothing changes and as is right now. What i mean by this is that there is no chance for labour to win without some kind of a deal between them and the Lib Dems at the minimum. If they want to win for 100% then they will have to make a deal with SNP + Lib Dems + Labour.
Yes Lib Dems eat in to Tory and Labour vote. The problem is that they eat in to Labour vote too much since they are a remain party while Corbyn basically states his neutrality.
At the start of this, I thought that Lib Dems might have a chance. Well, they don't. Simply put they don't have the money to compete vs Tories and Labour. Nor do they have the reach. The media are not taking them seriously so most of the debates will be for Corbyn and Johnson. Its complicated. There are some token debates but mostly its Johnson and Corbyn.
But as of now, Tories will get an absolute majority. This absolute majority can't be challenged since the remain vote is split between Labour and Lib Dems mostly. Lib Dems + Labour is probably 80% certain to beat Tories under any scenario. Lib Dems + SNP + Labour are 100% certain to beat tories under any scenario. But those alliances are not going to happen.
If nothing changes, Johnson is PM with absolute majority without any need for any alliances or cooperation between parties. Can he push Brexit under those conditions? God knows because we come to the realisation that Brexit is no longer as popular as it once was. The Brexit situation shifted to around 45-55 for the people who care still. So remain has a 10 point lead. By the end of the election, disenfranchisement will lead it to 60-40 if Johnson wins with an absolute majority. Basically the system is disfunctional right now and doesn't really represent what the overall population stands for. Who is to blame? Well the Lib Dems i guess. It was okay with a 2 party system but 3 way it gets too complicated.