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By Nonsense
#15053943
On checking the LabourList.org website, of the 60 seats lost by Labour alone, 52 seats were lost by Labour MP's in 'Leave' constituencies in England, 8 elsewhere, with 6 in Scotland, to the SNP.

It confirms my pre-election assertion, that 'Remain' MP's would pay the price for frustrating Brexit.

The lesson of course, is that what they did, was entirely futile, as well as costly to Labour's reputation & it's prospects that may take at least a decade to recover from.

Potentially, they could have lost 112 MP's, as that was the number of Labour MP's that pledged to back 'Remain' Labour, so 53.57 % of those 'Remain' Labour MP's paid the price & they made their constituents pay as well.
By B0ycey
#15053947
Labour could only be impartial @Nonsense. If they were a Leave party they would have split the Leave vote and with FPTP we would have either a Lib Dem majority or a Lib Dem coalition with the SNP (Greens?). If you look at the voting figures to designated Brexit position, it wasn't a Brexit revolt at all. In fact only the SNP have a better votes per MPs than the Tories. And the Greens and Lib Dems are punished badly with FPTP.
By Atlantis
#15053957
So, Boris is going to go for a hard Brexit with only 44% of the popular vote. Is that what they call democracy in the UK? If Germany had the UK's election system, Merkel would have a super majority (the black part). It's rather ironic that the British media keep on going about the fragile state of Merkel's government.

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Comrade Corbyn achieved his mission of Brexit and of replacing Labour by a far-left splinter group. I have always known that Corbyn's fence-sitting would become a liability beyond a certain point. He lost Labour's Brexit voters even though he refused to oppose Brexit.

In NI, for the first time in history the Irish nationalists got more seats than the Unionists. The DUP would have been better off with May's deal. That's what happens when people get too greedy.

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Boris probably won't mind getting rid of NI, but letting go of Scotland will be another thing. The SNP gained 13 seats and now almost represents all of Scotland. With such a large share, the SNP cannot not go for independence.

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That is what a divided country looks like.
By Atlantis
#15053959
Resolution

It is very difficult to collect my thoughts into something coherent after four hours sleep in the last 48 hours, but these are heads of key issues to be developed later.

I have no doubt that the Johnson government will very quickly become the most unpopular in UK political history. The ultra-hard Brexit he is pushing will not be the panacea which the deluded anticipate. It will have a negative economic impact felt most keenly in the remaining industry of the Midlands and North East of England. Deregulation will worsen conditions for those fortunate enough to have employment, as will further benefits squeezes. Immigration will not in practice reduce; what will reduce are the rights and conditions for the immigrants.

Decaying, left-behind towns will moulder further. The fishing industry will very quickly be sold down the river in trade negotiations with the EU – access to fishing (and most of the UK fishing grounds are Scottish) is one of the few decent offers Boris has to make to the EU in seeking market access. His Brexit deal will take years and be overwhelmingly fashioned to benefit the City of London.

There is zero chance the Conservatives will employ a sizeable number of extra nurses: they just will not be prepared to put in the money. They will employ more policemen. In a couple of years time they will need them for widespread riots. They will not build any significant portion of the hospitals or other infrastructure they promised. They most certainly will do nothing effective about climate change. These were simply dishonest promises. The NHS will continue to crumble with more and more of its service provision contracted out, and more and more of its money going into private shareholders’ pockets (including many Tory MPs).

The disillusionment will be on the same scale as Johnson’s bombastic promises. The Establishment are not stupid and realise there will be an anti-Tory reaction. Their major effort will therefore be to change Labour back into a party supporting neo-liberal economic policy and neo-conservative foreign (or rather war) policy. They will want to be quite certain that, having seen off the Labour Party’s popular European style social democratic programme with Brexit anti-immigrant fervour, the electorate have no effective non-right wing choice at the next election, just like in the Blair years.

To that end, every Blairite horror has been resurrected already by the BBC to tell us that the Labour Party must now move right – McNicol, McTernan, Campbell, Hazarayika and many more, not to mention the platforms given to Caroline Flint, Ruth Smeeth and John Mann. The most important immediate fight for radicals in England is to maintain Labour as a mainstream European social democratic party and resist its reversion to a Clinton style right wing ultra capitalist party. Whether that is possible depends how many of the Momentum generation lose heart and quit.

Northern Ireland is perhaps the most important story of this election, with a seismic shift in a net gain of two seats in Belfast from the Unionists, plus the replacement of a unionist independent by the Alliance Party. Irish reunification is now very much on the agenda. The largesse to the DUP will be cut off now Boris does not need them.

For me personally, Scotland is the most important development of all. A stunning result for the SNP. The SNP result gave them a bigger voter share in Scotland than the Tories got in the UK. So if Johnson got a “stonking mandate for Brexit”, as he just claimed in his private school idiom, the SNP got a “stonking mandate” for Independence.

I hope the SNP learnt the lesson that by being much more upfront about Independence than in the disastrous “don’t mention Independence” election of 2017, the SNP got spectacularly better results.

I refrained from criticising the SNP leadership during the campaign, even to the extent of not supporting my friend Stu Campbell when he was criticised for doing so (and I did advise him to wait until after election day). But I can say now that the election events, which are perfect for promoting Independence, are not necessarily welcome to the gradualists in the SNP. A “stonking mandate” for Independence and a brutal Johnson government treating Scotland with total disrespect leaves no room for hedge or haver. The SNP needs to strike now, within weeks not months, to organise a new Independence referendum with or without Westminster agreement.

If we truly believe Westminster has no right to block Scottish democracy, we need urgently to act to that effect and not just pretend to believe it. Now the election is over, I will state my genuine belief there is a political class in the SNP, Including a minority but significant portion of elected politicians, office holders and staff, who are very happy with their fat living from the devolution settlement and who view any striking out for Independence as a potential threat to their personal income.

You will hear from these people we should wait for EU trade negotiations, for a decision on a section 30, for lengthy and complicated court cases, or any other excuse to maintain the status quo, rather than move their well=paid arses for Independence. But the emergency of the empowered Johnson government, and the new mandate from the Scottish electorate, require immediate and resolute action. We need to organise an Independence referendum with or without Westminster permission, and if successful go straight for UDI. If the referendum is blocked, straight UDI it is, based on the four successive election victory mandates.

With this large Tory majority, there is nothing the SNP MPs can in practice achieve against Westminster. We should now withdraw our MPs from the Westminster Parliament and take all actions to paralyse the union. This is how the Irish achieved Independence. We will never get Independence by asking Boris Johnson nicely. Anyone who claims to believe otherwise is a fool or a charlatan.
By Rugoz
#15053973
Atlantis wrote:So, Boris is going to go for a hard Brexit with only 44% of the popular vote. Is that what they call democracy in the UK? If Germany had the UK's election system, Merkel would have a super majority (the black part). It's rather ironic that the British media keep on going about the fragile state of Merkel's government.

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This is a dumb comparison because a change of the voting system from FPTP to PR or vice versa would drastically change campaign and voting behavior.
By B0ycey
#15053991
Rugoz wrote:This is a dumb comparison because a change of the voting system from FPTP to PR or vice versa would drastically change campaign and voting behavior.


Yeah... for the fucking better!! (In regards to the UK).

Surely voting for a party that you want rather than preventing a party you don't because of the constituency you are in is a better system. FPTP is a system where all votes are not equal.

Also BoJo has 100% power for 43% of the vote share. Frankly that is questionable to call it democracy.
By Atlantis
#15054001
Rugoz wrote:This is a dumb comparison because a change of the voting system from FPTP to PR or vice versa would drastically change campaign and voting behavior.


We can ignore your hypothetical voting patterns because we know for a fact that fptp will always tend towards a two-party system. That means 4 of the current 6 parties in Germany will disappear or be reduced to insignificance.
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By Kaiserschmarrn
#15054006
Atlantis wrote:We can ignore your hypothetical voting patterns because we know for a fact that fptp will always tend towards a two-party system. That means 4 of the current 6 parties in Germany will disappear or be reduced to insignificance.

No, we can ignore your hypothetical result precisely because of the reasons given by Rugoz.

Also, with FPTP the smaller parties are not necessarily insignificant as the 2 main parties' policies will be influenced by them. See UKIP/Brexit party for a recent quite dramatic example.
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By fokker
#15054030
Rugoz wrote:This is a dumb comparison because a change of the voting system from FPTP to PR or vice versa would drastically change campaign and voting behavior.


Surely, but such change in voting behaviour would increasingly result in disproportionate representation of population views and interests. In multiparty PR system you are more likely to find a matching party - it will always be more democratic. Two party systems have provided stability and countries having them also avoided major wars on their land (and loosing them), also share a common language which lead to long term economic development, which in my opinion leads to incorrect conclusion that two party system may even be better. I'm a strong opponent of two party system as I want party in parliament that represents my views, not lesser of two evils.
German democracy is superior to British or American.

Kaiserschmarrn wrote:Also, with FPTP the smaller parties are not necessarily insignificant as the 2 main parties' policies will be influenced by them. See UKIP/Brexit party for a recent quite dramatic example.

How much influence does SNP hold in British parliament? Two party system is designed to "stomp" on minority voters to force them to fall in line and vote for major parties that will not represent them anyway.
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By Beren
#15054041
Istanbuller wrote:British people sent a clear message to Brussels.

BoJo bent over to the EU and Ireland (Sinn Fein, more precisely) and played by their rules in exchange for a deal that was considered unacceptable when offered to the May cabinet, and won a landslide victory as a result, so I wonder if what exactly is supposed to be the message here.
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By Potemkin
#15054042
Beren wrote:BoJo bent over to the EU and Ireland (Sinn Fein, more precisely) and played by their rules in exchange for a deal that was considered unacceptable when offered to the May cabinet, and won a landslide victory as a result, so I wonder if what exactly is supposed to be the message here.

The message is that in politics, as in life in general, being an unprincipled opportunist almost always pays off. :)
By Quantum
#15054044
Potemkin wrote:The message is that in politics, as in life in general, being an unprincipled opportunist almost always pays off. :)

Johnson literally had two letters, one arguing for Remain and one for Leave. He literally became a Brexiteer just to become PM and it paid off. I wonder how long his honeymoon period will wear off and people became discontented with his regime. Labour really need to get their shit together if they don't want to be out of power for the next decade.
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By Beren
#15054045
Potemkin wrote:The message is that in politics, as in life in general, being an unprincipled opportunist almost always pays off. :)

He had a deal in his pocket and employed someone with a strategy at least, while Corbyn couldn't come out either as a Remainer or a Leaver and seemed more sympathetic to Venezuela than the EU, which failed him even in traditional Labour heartlands.

Quantum wrote:Labour really need to get their shit together if they don't want to be out of power for the next decade.

Sure, they'll have to get rid of Corbynism as fast as possible.
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By Potemkin
#15054051
Beren wrote:He had a deal in his pocket and employed someone with a strategy at least, while Corbyn couldn't come out either as a Remainer or a Leaver and seemed more sympathetic to Venezuela than the EU, which failed him even in traditional Labour heartlands.

Indeed. Just like Nicola Sturgeon, he's clearly a Leaver who has to pretend to be a Remainer. The difference is that Corbyn couldn't successfully hide that fact. This ambiguity cost him dearly.

Sure, they'll have to get rid of Corbynism as fast as possible.

Easier said than done. Part of the problem is that the Labour manifesto was written by the rank-and-file membership rather than decided upon by the party leadership. Getting rid of Corbynism (how?) would not solve the 'problem' that the rank-and-file members of the Labour Party have the right to dictate party policy.
By B0ycey
#15054070
Labour doesn't need to get rid of Corbynism. Who doesn't want nationalisation in the UK? It isn't America and the NHS is the biggest issue now Brexit is as good as over. They just need to get rid of Corbyn. Everytime I see an Adams/Corbyn meme the replies aren't pretty. And his heartlands don't trust him personally. Stick his policies on Starmer and Labour would have performed much much better and I suspect would be in coalition or in union with the SNP now. Maybe even majority.
By Rich
#15054077
fokker wrote:How much influence does SNP hold in British parliament? Two party system is designed to "stomp" on minority voters to force them to fall in line and vote for major parties that will not represent them anyway.

First Past the post can favour regional parties. The SNP, Sinn Fein and the DUP are all over represented. Obviously in the past local constituencies made sense, but in the modern world local constituencies are totally arbitrary, why not divide people up into constituencies based on race, ethnicity, religion, occupation, income, health or age? Geographically based constituencies actually encourage regional division in the same way that sectarian based constitutions like Northern Ireland and Lebanon actually encourage sectarian division.
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By Beren
#15054080
B0ycey wrote:Labour doesn't need to get rid of Corbynism. Who doesn't want nationalisation in the UK? It isn't America and the NHS is the biggest issue now Brexit is as good as over. They just need to get rid of Corbyn. Everytime I see an Adams/Corbyn meme the replies aren't pretty. And his heartlands don't trust him personally. Stick his policies on Starmer and Labour would have performed much much better and I suspect would be in coalition or in union with the SNP now. Maybe even majority.

Corbyn and Corbynism are bound together and Labour don't necessarily need Corbynism to be a leftist party, in my view at least. The hard fact to realise here is that Corbynism has failed abysmally.
By Istanbuller
#15054081
Potemkin wrote:The message is that in politics, as in life in general, being an unprincipled opportunist almost always pays off. :)

He wouldn't have a majority like this otherwise. It is not just he campaigned to Labour voters who choose to leave the EU. He promised to increase government spending. Corbyn personally lost the election but there wasn't really a difference between him and Boris Johnson.

B0ycey wrote:Labour doesn't need to get rid of Corbynism. Who doesn't want nationalisation in the UK? It isn't America and the NHS is the biggest issue now Brexit is as good as over. They just need to get rid of Corbyn. Everytime I see an Adams/Corbyn meme the replies aren't pretty. And his heartlands don't trust him personally. Stick his policies on Starmer and Labour would have performed much much better and I suspect would be in coalition or in union with the SNP now. Maybe even majority.

I believe that there will be a moment British state will give up tolerating separatists. SNP will be crushed like what Spain did to Catalans.
By B0ycey
#15054084
Beren wrote:Corbyn and Corbynism are bound together and Labour don't necessarily need Corbynism to be a leftist party, in my view at least. The hard fact to realise here is that Corbynism has failed abysmally.


Generation gab Beren. Corbynism is very popular in the youth. And in retrospect all Corbynism is is a reverse of Thatcherism and perhaps Social Rooseveltism which is popular in all but the affluent areas of the UK. Scrap Trident and suddenly his project becomes very affordable and would be loved by all.

Also you need to realise that in the last election his policies nearly won him from an impossible position - granted against the worse manifesto in living memory. This time he perhaps went a little crazy especially giving the WASPI women a payday when the IFS already said his pledges were unaffordable meaning people became even more nervous against a man nobody trusted or thought was patriotic.

Believe what you like. Corbynism is the future but perhaps a generation away so Labour should not ditch it - or not all of it anyways. Also after five years of Johnson, recession and a Brexit reality check, everyone will be looking for something less Johnsonism especially as this year it wasn't the policies of Labour that failed but the man that lead the party and his history.
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