China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15061136
Rancid wrote:What would be the estimates of death if the virus were allowed to just rip through the global population?


Its too early to tell. Allegedly it started somewhere around in december. So its hard to say since most people would be infected just now. Mostly older people are affected. The youngest dead person is 48 years old.

It seems that it is spreading from person to person. Early reports were wrong and this is concerning considering that the incubation period is a from couple of days to 2 weeks. (Spanish flu was similar)

Another negative side seems to be that some patients that died didn't have fever, which means that standard means of checks in airports/terminals will not work.
#15061137
The central government just decided to cancel major festivities scheduled for the Chinese New Year and that primary and secondary schools will be postponed in Hubei province.

Some good updates from the New York Times and the SCMP:

Coronavirus Live Updates: As Outbreak Grows, China Bans Travel From 3 Cities

Crowds and confusion at hospitals

It appears that the virus was transmitted by bamboo rats, which have become a delicacy in recent years due to their alleged health benefits. Can't really blame the poor animals for taking revenge because of the cruel way they are treated.

Going from the Chinese year of the pig with swine fever to the year of the rat with a bamboo rat transmitted epidemic seems somehow fitting in view of the cruelty with which we treat nature.
#15061142
Rancid wrote:The WHO has yet to declare this a global emergency. I wonder what criteria they use to determine this.


I suspect the organisation has been hijacked by the Chinese (Communist) government for some time (not least from the appointment of an official from Chinese (communist)-controlled Hong Kong government as Secretary General) and they might have lost whatever credibility they used to possess, at least when the matter is about China.

I will be glad if the above hypothesis is wrong.

EDIT: IMHO the next post is a much better-grounded answer.
Last edited by Patrickov on 23 Jan 2020 13:27, edited 1 time in total.
#15061143
Rancid wrote:The WHO has yet to declare this a global emergency. I wonder what criteria they use to determine this.


They have their criteria; however, it is partly political. The Chinese government will want to avoid declaring a global emergency for economic reasons. To a point, the WHO is going to comply with Chinese demands because they need Chinese cooperation to control the outbreak.

During yesterday's press conference, WHO officials kept on praising China for its cooperation.
#15061144
Patrickov wrote:I suspect the organisation has been hijacked by the Chinese (Communist) government for some time (not least from the appointment of an official from Chinese (communist)-controlled Hong Kong government as Secretary General) and they might have lost whatever credibility they used to possess, at least when the matter is about China.

I will be glad if the above hypothesis is wrong.


It wasn't. The organisation doesn't want to piss off the country that is having an outbreak because then China won't cooperate if WHO needs something. It is not that simple as you think.

Any country would insist on similar things if they were in Chinese shoes. I mean a state of emergency would imply partial or severe limitations of movement of goods and people to and from China. That is pretty bad for the economy. So no sane country would want this to happen to them.
#15061145
JohnRawls wrote:It wasn't. The organisation doesn't want to piss off the country that is having an outbreak because then China won't cooperate if WHO needs something. It is not that simple as you think.

Any country would insist on similar things if they were in Chinese shoes. I mean a state of emergency would imply partial or severe limitations of movement of goods and people to and from China. That is pretty bad for the economy. So no sane country would want this to happen to them.


Indeed. Both this and post #15061143 are much better explanations.

Still, it remains to be seen if the Chinese authorities are competent enough to bring a good conclusion to this event.
#15061154
Just filled two carts with pre-panic shopping for durable necessities in the nearest department store: rice, sugar, flour salt, noodles, batteries, some frozen meat, UHT milk cartons, cooking oil, crackers, and so on. 70 bucks, that buys you a lot in these parts.
We already had the face masks, the sanitiser, the disinfectant and a well-stocked home pharmacy.
If the worst happens we will go for another, more serious round of shopping, but whatever we got today is a good start.

Now what to do with our Chinese neighbours ? (joke)
#15061163
JohnRawls wrote:
It wasn't. The organisation doesn't want to piss off the country that is having an outbreak because then China won't cooperate if WHO needs something. It is not that simple as you think.

Any country would insist on similar things if they were in Chinese shoes. I mean a state of emergency would imply partial or severe limitations of movement of goods and people to and from China. That is pretty bad for the economy. So no sane country would want this to happen to them.


Sure, I understand this, but at the same time, it's not really a global emergency. According to the media, we still do not see a increase of cases in countries outside of China. Thus far, it's people that have traveled to China. Thus, it's still not really global. At least not yet. So I would argue, the WHO is correct to not declare a global emergency yet. This can change of course

The subtext I'm getting at is, I'm wondering if China is actually over reacting with the closure of entire cities. :?: The death rate thus far is lower than SARS.

In another round about away, I guess I'm suggesting the idea of what would be so wrong about allowing this to rip through the population around the globe? Viruses have a way of burning themselves out. no? Viruses evolve very slow compared to bacterial. So super virus are less likely than say super bacterias.

Dunno, I'm just tossing around thoughts.
#15061165
@Rancid
The authorities need to err on the side of caution.
If they overreact they can undo the isolation and other measures.
If they underreact then many people will die.
Which might be in the millions.
It is that simple.

Which would not be such a bad thing from the Earth's point of view.
#15061169
Rancid wrote:In another round about away, I guess I'm suggesting the idea of what would be so wrong about allowing this to rip through the population around the globe?


You mean as a way of dealing with overpopulation? Don't give them any ideas, you never know where that'll lead to.

It looks like the Wuhan city authorities fucked up in a big way. One would have thought that they have learned from the SARS cover-up, but no, they had more than a month in which they did nothing, except for inviting people to the city to spread the virus around. Good thing that some brave individuals are keeping a record. The authorities are doing their best to cover things up.

The complete coronavirus timeline - a man made disaster

Dec 8, 2019 is universally regarded as the first case of the coronavirus appearing. Him and about 27 other patients went to the hospital - they all have the same symptoms, and they're identified as 'unknown pneumonia patients'.

Things escalated in the next couple of weeks. On Dec 30, 2019, the seafood market that these cases originated from was identified, but no actions to directly close down and quarantine the market was taken. The SARS like virus was also confirmed and an emergency announcement file is released to medical personels with the last line stating: nobody is allowed to spread any information about this without approval from the authorithy.

#WuhanSARS was also trending that night on Weibo but was immediately censored.

On Dec 31, 2019, a visit to the seafood market shows that nobody was aware of this flu. The entire market was business as usual. People walking around with no virus protection of any kind. On the afternoon, health committe released info on 27 cases of unknown pneumonia patients to the public, stating that no person-to-person virus transition have been discovered yet, and no medical staff was infected. Central people's newpaper tweeted something alone the lines of:

'All of the cases are residents of the seafood market, guys, there is nothing to be worried about. Rest assured! Even if it's SARS, we are sure to have it under control with our advanced and unmatched medical system.'

On Jan 1, 2020. People began posting on Weibo that it is very possible this virus can transfer between humans. They were censored. In the mean time, Wuhan police's account tweeted out: '8 individuals that spreaded misinformations about the pneumonia have been taken into custody. Worry not Chinese people! We've got everything under control.' The Wuhan health committe also keep on stating that this virus does not transfer between humans. I'm sure you're seeing a pattern here.

What's interesting to note that the Hong Kong goverment called a stat emergency immediately upon discovering cases within its region on Jan 4, whilst people in Wuhan are still trusting in its leaders and hoping for the best. This went on for an entire week, the Wuhan health committe keeps on stating that no new cases were discovered when in the mean time censored tweets on Weibo states hospitals are completely full with patients and new cases around the world starts to surface.

It is extremely clear at this point that this virus is highly contagious, can transfer between humans and can be deadly. But Wuhan citizens, going with the false info released by its goverment, was still going around the city with no protection whatsoever, believing that this is just a benigh virus under control.

On Jan 14, a group of journalists and medical staffs came to Wuhan's hospital, they were rejected, later taken to the police and all footages they took in the hospital was taken away.

Keep in mind that in the mean time new cases started to spring everywhere on the map of China, and Wuhan citizens that traveled to other corners of the world are identified as infected cases.

On Jan 12, Imperial college london released a report estimating there should be around 1,700 cases by Jan 17. This invoked some questions in China.

On the same day, 13th HuBei people's representitive meeting was held in Wuhan. This is a huge goverment election event that lasts about a week. Before you ask, wait, China has elections? Just google it, I won't go too deep into it.

On Jan 16, someone on ZhiHu (The Chinese Quora) asked 'ok, so there are so many cases happening around the world, how did our great leaders manage to get this under control?' (Spoiler: They didn't, they just didn't put in on the news). More questions were asked and soon they were all deleted.

During the time the meeting was held, no new cases were reported by the Wuhan health committe. On Jan 18 however, after the event has finished, they started stating new cases were 'discovered' again. An interesting coincedence. This corona fellow is very collabrative.

Keep in mind that this late into 2020, people still have no idea how serious this virus is, they still think it doesn't transfer between humans, they still think it's only a handful of people that got this thing and it's completely under control.

On Jan 17, Wuhan travel committe released their big event: Free sightseeing for up to 200,000 tourists! Come to Wuhan and see the beautiful city!

On Jan 18, 40,000 families gathered around to eat and share family made gourmet dishes with each other. The smell of happiness filled the air. No virus involved.

On Jan 20, Mr. Zhongnanshan, at 84 years old, went to Wuhan with a medical team. This is the first time some truth was released to the public: this virus transitions between humans, 15 medical staff was infected, and it is at this point the case and death numbers started skyrocketing.

Source, in Chinese

#15061241
Atlantis wrote:It looks like the Wuhan city authorities fucked up in a big way. One would have thought that they have learned from the SARS cover-up, but no, they had more than a month in which they did nothing, except for inviting people to the city to spread the virus around. Good thing that some brave individuals are keeping a record. The authorities are doing their best to cover things up.


This is what Chinese Commies do whenever they meet crisis, because a single exposure of the incident will mean the local officials will have trouble.

The SYSTEM and MINDSET of this nation and race is in serious problem.



(The following is what I posted wrongly in another thread. Now moved here)

According to my father (who read Facebook feeds), the lock-down includes cutoff of INTERNET -- this would mean things like ALIPAY (which is equivalent to CASH there) unusable, i.e. they will NOT have access to FOOD, WATER, ELECTRICITY, COMMUNICATIONS, etc.

It seems the citizens of Wuhan is actually being treated as flu chickens.
#15061250
Patrickov wrote:This is what Chinese Commies do whenever they meet crisis, because a single exposure of the incident will mean the local officials will have trouble.


Local officials in Wuhan will indeed be in a lot of trouble now.

But to be fair, Beijing's response is a lot better than in the Sars case. They did learn, not to be more open, but to better control information. There seem to be a lot of people active in social networks who actively argue the case for Beijing. Hard to say how many are paid chills. There are also reports about arrests for spreading rumors. Spreading rumor can be very damaging, but Beijing is just going to use it as a pretext for censorship.

From the problem with the Sars virus, Beijing has apparently learned to quickly communicate information about the virus to the WHO and other countries, but I think they are now trying to cover up the extend of the infection. Considering how far the virus has spread and how easily it is transmitted, the reported infections seem far too low.

There have been videos showing people suddenly collapsing in the streets. I couldn't believe it at first. That's why I didn't post them. But they do seem to be genuine. I have never seen anything like this before. This doesn't seem to be a normal flu.






There are other videos showing crowded conditions at hospitals.
#15061253
Atlantis wrote:But to be fair, Beijing's response is a lot better than in the Sars case. They did learn, not to be more open, but to better control information. There seem to be a lot of people active in social networks who actively argue the case for Beijing. Hard to say how many are paid chills. There are also reports about arrests for spreading rumors. Spreading rumor can be very damaging, but Beijing is just going to use it as a pretext for censorship.


I strongly disagree the use of the word "better" in this paragraph. Clearly this is a serious case of cover-up, and this will only lead to disastrous results, given how many already have zero trust in Chinese Commies.

Some have predicted that a revolt would take place in Wuhan if this continues for even just a few days. If it is so, I will say 1911 is coming back -- ironically, the 1911 thing actually started in this city.
#15061345
I’ve been doing some reading about the year of the ‘metal rat’ and it seems the Chinese are quite superstitious about any illness for this period.

So...imagine how they were going to react to a possible global pandemic..
#15061363
Patrickov wrote:I strongly disagree the use of the word "better" in this paragraph. Clearly this is a serious case of cover-up, and this will only lead to disastrous results, given how many already have zero trust in Chinese Commies.

Some have predicted that a revolt would take place in Wuhan if this continues for even just a few days. If it is so, I will say 1911 is coming back -- ironically, the 1911 thing actually started in this city.


Your judgement is clouded by the strong feelings you have about China, which may be understandable, but doesn't help form an objective opinion.

Objectively speaking, the Chinese did learn from the SARS incident. Also objectively speaking, the Chinese like every government needs to control the narrative and counter conspiracies and fake news. Compared to the power of mind control of the Anglosphere, China's powers are insignificant and Russia's quasi non-existent. Let's keep a sense of perspective.

ness31 wrote:I’ve been doing some reading about the year of the ‘metal rat’ and it seems the Chinese are quite superstitious about any illness for this period.

So...imagine how they were going to react to a possible global pandemic..


From recent discussion I have had with the younger generation, I have the impression that Sinophiles in the West are a lot more into that sort of traditional superstition than present day Chinese on Weibo.

Donna wrote:China rarely does anything well. It just does things with tremendous scale while covering up deficiencies.


It's unfortunate that it seems impossible to have a rational discussion, unaffected by emotional bias, on the pros and cons of the Chinese system. This is even more disastrous because it will affect all our lives, at least for the younger generation. We are once again plunging into an unpredictable future like headless chickens in a Chinese wet market. The outcome of that is totally predictable.
#15061370
Atlantis wrote:Your judgement is clouded by the strong feelings you have about China, which may be understandable, but doesn't help form an objective opinion.

Objectively speaking, the Chinese did learn from the SARS incident. Also objectively speaking, the Chinese like every government needs to control the narrative and counter conspiracies and fake news. Compared to the power of mind control of the Anglosphere, China's powers are insignificant and Russia's quasi non-existent. Let's keep a sense of perspective.


It is accurate to say that I lack the ability to explain Hongkonger's distrust of Chinese Commies, but this is not an unfounded emotion.

To make it simple, their objectives, while understandable, directly conflict with our needs. We need a government which can be held accountable, and not spending money on their whim (probably go to their corruptions), and making blunders that will make our lives at risk, and not persecute anybody who voice the slightest disagreement. So far China has failed to do any of that, and in some instances, showed that they are willing to antagonise us just that their asses can be saved.
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