China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 7 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15061754
ness31 wrote:Has this outbreak had any impact on diminishing the Hong Kong protests I wonder?


Hong Kong protest organisers have announced that no public protests will be held in the coming month, out of public health concerns.

However, the anti-government sentiment is an entirely different matter.

I suspect a city-wide strike is more implementable now -- well, everyone can just lock themselves up at home!
#15061770
ness31 wrote:Yeeeah. I’m not sure if I’m a Chinese apologist or not :?:


OH god, I wrote that post totally wrong.

What I meant to say is, that it's pretty clear I am NOT an extreme China hater. I am not going to claim that they are doing a shit job.

In otherwords, I'm giving China the benefit of the doubt, and choosing to believe their reports about how bad the infection is..... At least for now.
#15061791
Rancid wrote:What I meant to say is, that it's pretty clear I am NOT an extreme China hater.


I'm not an extreme China hater either, but I think the Chinese authorities deserve every bit of shit that's been thrown at them. It's a totalitarian regime that systematically and ruthlessly suppresses any information and opinion that doesn't suite its agenda.

I think we have reached phase 4 of the WHO Pandemic Phase Descriptions

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks”. The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk of a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
#15061821
Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn

Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.

Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.

“My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”


Everything is purely speculative at this stage. The virus appears to be highly contagious but not having the same lethality as SARS did (3-4%). The long incubation time coupled with carries can spread the virus with no symptoms will make screening travelers a nightmare. Far more deadly than the common flu which stands at roughly 0,017% deaths per infection.

Edited latest update:

2700 reported cases (China as well as Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) and 80 deaths.
#15061865
Here is an example of the dilemma facing public health officials.

We seem to know now that a person exposed to this virus could be contagious for up to 14 days prior to exhibiting symptoms.

We know there is a person at Arizona State University who has tested positive for Novel Corona virus 2019. He had just returned from Wuhan.

So how many people did he expose? Probably three aircraft, a shit ton for friends, his school mates. What we don't know is just how contagious this virus is.

So we, 120 miles away have a health clinic for homeless people. It is the height of flu season. What do we do?

Ask these questions of yourself and imagine you are one of my fellow workers in the clinic.

1. This is a charity clinic. Should we risk our lives going there to help people knowing that, as best we can tell, the risk is not great at this point?

2. Should we be a gathering place for sick people?

3. When do we refer someone with the symptoms of flu? It is the height of the flu season.

4. What should we tell the 300 or so homeless people who show up at our project?

5. Is it time for personal safety precautions like masks and face guards?

Now a comment for our shit for brains friends who, with no medical reason to do it, refuse to get flu shots. We are in the height of the flu season and now we have the potential for an infection that mocks the flu and "may" be far more dangerous. Your addle headed refusal to take precautions against the flu have complicated matters considerably. Yes I get that sometimes the vaccines "miss". But I also know that they are not worthless whenever they do. Now, just when we may need the resources for a new threat we have you folks clogging the emergency rooms and taking the respirators.

Treatment of Corona Virus. This is not a medical opinion. It is an observation.

If we have a major outbreak of flu or corona virus we need respirators. We do not have nearly as many of them as we need on the best of days. Just make a guess at how many the average hospital has. See what I mean. And they are the lifesaver. (With flu we have drugs that can, if given early, make the flu less severe. Nothing like that with CV.)

So once the respirators are gone, there is little we can do to help the victims of CV. We can give them breathing treatments to open them up and that can help but it can also be done at home. That is if you have a nebulizer at home. Albuterol works OK for some people. Hospitals can keep people hydrated with IV fluids but that is far more complicated than it seems and, though even some doctors do not know this, too much fluid replacement in pneumonia patients.......

So here is how you will likely get treated if there is a pandemic.

You will be told to stay home. Here is the treatment CDC is posting for treating novel corona virus:

1. take pain and fever medications (Caution: do not give Aspirin to children)
2. use a room humidifier or take a hot shower to help ease a sore throat and cough.

There you are. Shelter at home and hope you can ride it out. If you get too bad go to the hospital where they can give you......ahhh....well......we'll see.

I am not saying don't go to the hospital. Far from it. I am just putting into perspective what China is facing right now and what there is some possibility that many of us might face soon.

This one seems to be killing old sick people more. Flu often kills robust, young people. The 1918 flu did a number on 18-40 year olds. Oftentimes older people have some remaining immunity to flu. Don't count on it though.

If it sounds like I might be mixing up these two diseases I am doing it for a reason. And that is to show how devilishly difficult this situation is. And to say get a fucking flu shot. Get one. If you are one of the very rare people whose doctor has said you should not get one then those of us to are getting one are helping to protect you and those of us who don't get one appear to not give a shit about your health.

Can you get the flu if you have had the shot? Yes.

CDC Said:


1. A 2017 study showed that influenza vaccination reduced deaths, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, ICU length of stay, and overall duration of hospitalization among hospitalized influenza patients.

2. Another study in 2018 showed that a vaccinated adult who was hospitalized with influenza was 59 percent less likely to be admitted to the Intensive Care Unit than someone who had not been vaccinated. Among adults in the ICU with influenza, vaccinated patients on average spent 4 fewer days in the hospital than those who were not vaccinated.

At least call your doctor and ask. It won't kill you.....

Have a nice day.
#15061866
Drlee wrote:Here is an example of the dilemma facing public health officials.

We seem to know now that a person exposed to this virus could be contagious for up to 14 days prior to exhibiting symptoms.

We know there is a person at Arizona State University who has tested positive for Novel Corona virus 2019. He had just returned from Wuhan.

So how many people did he expose? Probably three aircraft, a shit ton for friends, his school mates. What we don't know is just how contagious this virus is.

So we, 120 miles away have a health clinic for homeless people. It is the height of flu season. What do we do?

Ask these questions of yourself and imagine you are one of my fellow workers in the clinic.

1. This is a charity clinic. Should we risk our lives going there to help people knowing that, as best we can tell, the risk is not great at this point?

2. Should we be a gathering place for sick people?

3. When do we refer someone with the symptoms of flu? It is the height of the flu season.

4. What should we tell the 300 or so homeless people who show up at our project?

5. Is it time for personal safety precautions like masks and face guards?

Now a comment for our shit for brains friends who, with no medical reason to do it, refuse to get flu shots. We are in the height of the flu season and now we have the potential for an infection that mocks the flu and "may" be far more dangerous. Your addle headed refusal to take precautions against the flu have complicated matters considerably. Yes I get that sometimes the vaccines "miss". But I also know that they are not worthless whenever they do. Now, just when we may need the resources for a new threat we have you folks clogging the emergency rooms and taking the respirators.

Treatment of Corona Virus. This is not a medical opinion. It is an observation.

If we have a major outbreak of flu or corona virus we need respirators. We do not have nearly as many of them as we need on the best of days. Just make a guess at how many the average hospital has. See what I mean. And they are the lifesaver. (With flu we have drugs that can, if given early, make the flu less severe. Nothing like that with CV.)

So once the respirators are gone, there is little we can do to help the victims of CV. We can give them breathing treatments to open them up and that can help but it can also be done at home. That is if you have a nebulizer at home. Albuterol works OK for some people. Hospitals can keep people hydrated with IV fluids but that is far more complicated than it seems and, though even some doctors do not know this, too much fluid replacement in pneumonia patients.......

So here is how you will likely get treated if there is a pandemic.

You will be told to stay home. Here is the treatment CDC is posting for treating novel corona virus:

1. take pain and fever medications (Caution: do not give Aspirin to children)
2. use a room humidifier or take a hot shower to help ease a sore throat and cough.

There you are. Shelter at home and hope you can ride it out. If you get too bad go to the hospital where they can give you......ahhh....well......we'll see.

I am not saying don't go to the hospital. Far from it. I am just putting into perspective what China is facing right now and what there is some possibility that many of us might face soon.

This one seems to be killing old sick people more. Flu often kills robust, young people. The 1918 flu did a number on 18-40 year olds. Oftentimes older people have some remaining immunity to flu. Don't count on it though.

If it sounds like I might be mixing up these two diseases I am doing it for a reason. And that is to show how devilishly difficult this situation is. And to say get a fucking flu shot. Get one. If you are one of the very rare people whose doctor has said you should not get one then those of us to are getting one are helping to protect you and those of us who don't get one appear to not give a shit about your health.

Can you get the flu if you have had the shot? Yes.

CDC Said:


1. A 2017 study showed that influenza vaccination reduced deaths, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, ICU length of stay, and overall duration of hospitalization among hospitalized influenza patients.

2. Another study in 2018 showed that a vaccinated adult who was hospitalized with influenza was 59 percent less likely to be admitted to the Intensive Care Unit than someone who had not been vaccinated. Among adults in the ICU with influenza, vaccinated patients on average spent 4 fewer days in the hospital than those who were not vaccinated.

At least call your doctor and ask. It won't kill you.....

Have a nice day.


How does getting the regular old flu shot help against this new virus? :?:

BTW, I got the flu shot back in October...
#15061872
JohnRawls wrote:Image


I heard a different conspiracy theory.

1. China at first intended to let the patients come to Hong Kong for medical treatment, because the Mainland medical system cannot cope with the outbreak. A to-be-completed public housing estate (close to many others where many people live) was designated as a camp for these patients.
2. The Hong Kong protests in the past year revealed that, (a) Hongkongers do not trust Mainlanders anymore, and, (b) most charities, including the Red Cross and Médecins sans frontières, turned a blind eye on the perils suffered by Hong Kong protesters.
3. Also, many Mainlanders had been arrogant during the protests, claiming that they didn't need Hong Kong. This epidemic proved otherwise.
4. The result of combination of hypocrisy (in 2) and arrogance (in 3) made people all over the world, especially Hongkongers, no longer willing to give a helping hand.
5. Point 4 is why China had resorted to closing down cities -- they literally have no choice but to lock potential patients up until death, very much like how flu chickens are treated.
#15061895
Saeko wrote:Mein Gott! :eek:


@Drlee

Well the HK head and most knowledgable person about coronaviruses says the R0 is 2.12 if methods are not implemented to stop the spread. Also says that Wuhan link to other major cities means that all 5 large city clusters in CHina will highly likely have an epidemic depending on the containment measures with it peaking in April-May. Wuhan will be a bit faster. Without any preventive measures a doubling of infected cases is expected every 6 days.

The epidemic might turn global depending on what happens to intentional mobility etc and containment measures. Advises draconian movement restrictions.

Not sure how bad that R0 is? May be Drlee can clarify. Spanish flu had R0 of 1.8 so we are fucked or something? (R0 is spread rate of sorts as i understand which basically means that 1 carrier is expected to infect 2.12 individuals on average)

Preliminary fatality ratio is around 14% but this is counted only for the currently known data of severe cases.(Patients that came in to get checked) Experience wise from SARS and MERS he says that this number will grow larger. SARS had a fatality ratio of 3-5% from similar data but later on it turned out to be 17%. He expects similar situation here when additional data arrives.

Once again, this is not the final fatality ratio because a lot of the cases will be light/not noticed since not all people experience it in the same way nor need to come in to check themselves. Something along those lines.

Nobody can measure the "Total" fatality ratio right now. (So don't panic about the 14% and it will grow)

Seems pretty bad. But most data is best guesses since there was no real time to conduct full tests nor clear data.
#15061897
Patrickov wrote:I heard a different conspiracy theory.

1. China at first intended to let the patients come to Hong Kong for medical treatment, because the Mainland medical system cannot cope with the outbreak. A to-be-completed public housing estate (close to many others where many people live) was designated as a camp for these patients.
2. The Hong Kong protests in the past year revealed that, (a) Hongkongers do not trust Mainlanders anymore, and, (b) most charities, including the Red Cross and Médecins sans frontières, turned a blind eye on the perils suffered by Hong Kong protesters.
3. Also, many Mainlanders had been arrogant during the protests, claiming that they didn't need Hong Kong. This epidemic proved otherwise.
4. The result of combination of hypocrisy (in 2) and arrogance (in 3) made people all over the world, especially Hongkongers, no longer willing to give a helping hand.
5. Point 4 is why China had resorted to closing down cities -- they literally have no choice but to lock potential patients up until death, very much like how flu chickens are treated.



Just want to supplement on points 1 and 4.

Last night, Molotov Cocktails were thrown at the public housing estate intended for Mainland patients.
#15061898
Patrickov wrote:Just want to supplement on points 1 and 4.

Last night, Molotov Cocktails were thrown at the public housing estate intended for Mainland patients.


Not to be a jackass but the Red Cross and Médecins sans frontières are not designed nor responsible for helping protesters/treating protesters. Those organisations have different objectives. Also it is counter produce to insert themselves in to political struggles because that will lead to less support and less funding long term since being seen political is pretty bad.

As for the molotovs, that is pretty indecent. HK is a part of China, an oppressed part of China but still a part of China. So there needs to be some solidarity between HK and the mainland. Disease is apolitical, the people suffering from it are not suffering from it because they want to nor are they to undermine HK or anything like that. They need help and you can provide help that should be looked at in that manner.
#15061900
JohnRawls wrote:Not to be a jackass but the Red Cross and Médecins sans frontières are not designed nor responsible for helping protesters/treating protesters. Those organisations have different objectives. Also it is counter produce to insert themselves in to political struggles because that will lead to less support and less funding long term since being seen political is pretty bad.


Some protesters are so badly beaten that one can argue it is a humanitarian crisis.

I know some fellow Hongkongers who used to donate lots of money to the charity, or at least believe them not being malicious, but have grown resentful in recent months because they think their fellow people were betrayed by the charities they have supported for so long.

As I have not donated anything I do not take this so personal. IMHO this can be instead be explained as "any NGO with a sufficient size will become bureaucratic and, more importantly, part of the establishment".


JohnRawls wrote:As for the molotovs, that is pretty indecent. HK is a part of China, an oppressed part of China but still a part of China. So there needs to be some solidarity between HK and the mainland. Disease is apolitical, the people suffering from it are not suffering from it because they want to nor are they to undermine HK or anything like that. They need help and you can provide help that should be looked at in that manner.


It is a bit more complicated than that.

In fact I heard a rumour that, before the Molotov cocktail incident, there were some blockage work, done by cooperation between citizens holding different political views. There are anti-Govt people, and at least one identified as having been belligerent pro-Govt in the past months.

What I learn from this, is that solidarity must be placed on trust. China had effectively destroyed it to a level that Hongkongers, pro-China or not, are no longer willing to show any kind of solidarity. Maybe some believe that we have been betrayed and used too many times.
Last edited by Patrickov on 27 Jan 2020 10:52, edited 1 time in total.
#15061901
Good post, @JohnRawls

What bothers me is that people can be infected for an unknown number of days before symptoms appear and they can shed the virus before that time.

In other words, the health screening in the airports are utterly useless.
Their only method to detect infected people is by measuring their temperature and by counting on the honesty of the people to report that they are not feeling well.

And many countries are in the process of repatriating their nationals from the affected areas. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Five million people have left Wuhan before they imposed exit restrictions.

We will see.

At least I am happy that JohnRawls's anus has also puckered up, he no longer dismisses the worry of the people.
#15061902
Ter wrote:At least I am happy that JohnRawls's anus has also puckered up, he no longer dismisses the worry of the people.


Well, from what I read, he never means it (some others, even some in agreement with me, do), but if some of his statements can be regarded as such, I am afraid post #15061898 might qualify. (No offense)
#15061908
Ter wrote:Good post, @JohnRawls

What bothers me is that people can be infected for an unknown number of days before symptoms appear and they can shed the virus before that time.

In other words, the health screening in the airports are utterly useless.
Their only method to detect infected people is by measuring their temperature and by counting on the honesty of the people to report that they are not feeling well.

And many countries are in the process of repatriating their nationals from the affected areas. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Five million people have left Wuhan before they imposed exit restrictions.

We will see.

At least I am happy that JohnRawls's anus has also puckered up, he no longer dismisses the worry of the people.


The checks become insufficient yes, if it is true. Once again, this is best guess scenario where the medical people don't have time to run tests yet nor is there enough data. The checks still work just not in all cases though.

I wouldn't worry about the people getting repatriated since:
a) They would all be checked.
b) China already disallowed this as I understand. (They have a political reason to do this not to look like morons to their own people)

As for 5 million leaving Wuhan. That number is probably exagerated but since it was the head of Wuhan who said this then it might be true. I do not have any evidence to dispute this.

@Patrickov

Humanitarian organisations usually are either:
a) Very political
b) Fully apolitical

The very political ones are not active in HK because China banned all of them by now. The non-political ones are afraid that they will get banned if they will get involved in political stuff so they don't do it even in countries that is not China. The two mentioned are apolitical. You must understand that HK protest is a political endeavor. Actually, the organisation statute document probably prohibit those organisations from getting involved in such endeavors.

As for solidarity being based on trust i will agree fully. I do not think though that regular people = CCP. Currently the places being attacked are for regular people who are suffering or will be suffering from disease. You might not have any trust in the CCP but surely there is some trust left between the regular people. I mean CCP treats both HK people and Mainlanders as crap, so you have some common ground there. I understand that some of them are "brainwashed" but not all of them. You can show them the error of their ways while you are helping them.
#15061909
Where are all the people who said that a common flu is worse than the Wuhan coronary virus?

As of now, the official figures are 2,840 infected, 5,794 suspected infections, 57 cured, 81 dead:

Open Tencent News

The numbers of infected increase each time I renew the screen.

There are already 16 major cities with more than 10 infections, each, and 6 cities with more than 50 infections, each. According to some estimates, the actual figures of infections could be already over 100,000.

This has all the hallmark of becoming a global pandemic IF it cannot be contained in China. If there are major clusters of infections in 3rd world countries, we are fried. There are thousands of people that cross into India from China on a daily basis. What would happen if there are major outbreaks in India or Africa?
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