So how deadly is it? - Page 22 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

Provision of the two UN HDI indicators other than GNP.
Forum rules: No one line posts please.
By fokker
#15081726
BeesKnee5 wrote:It's an old persons disease is the fallacy that keeps @sivad going.

The numbers that are overwhelming healthcare systems are high in younger ages.


This puts a strain and forces a choice on healthcare systems to save the younger patient.


The UK is now in the same league like Italy, Spain - about 10% death rate unfortunately. I now wonder if the high death rate may be due to different vaccination policy in those countries in comparison to Germany and other countries with very low death rates.

Spain and Portugal will be similar genetically, but have very different death rates so I no longer think the difference can be caused by genetic differences. Portugal is not a rich country and seems to be doing not badly at all, despite having many cases as well.
#15081764
fokker wrote:
The UK is now in the same league like Italy, Spain - about 10% death rate unfortunately. I now wonder if the high death rate may be due to different vaccination policy in those countries in comparison to Germany and other countries with very low death rates.

Spain and Portugal will be similar genetically, but have very different death rates so I no longer think the difference can be caused by genetic differences. Portugal is not a rich country and seems to be doing not badly at all, despite having many cases as well.


There has been some research into the BCG vaccination that suggests a possible link. As I understand it there's more research needed to be certain.
#15081772
BeesKnee5 wrote:There has been some research into the BCG vaccination that suggests a possible link. As I understand it there's more research needed to be certain.

There has been research? Or speculation? This interview, for instance, seems to say "BCG vaccines can seem to help against other infections, perhaps it helps against this".



I didn't hear about how long any such advantage is supposed to last, either. BCG vaccines were common in the UK, for longer than in Germany:

France: The BCG was mandatory for school children between 1950 and 2007,[39][40] and for healthcare professionals between 1947 and 2010. Vaccination is still available for French healthcare professionals and social workers but is now decided on a case-by-case basis.[41]
Italy: BCG mass vaccination has never been performed in Italy. [37]
Germany: Mass vaccination was performed from 1961 until 1998. [42]
Norway: In Norway the BCG vaccine was mandatory from 1947 to 1995. It is still available and recommended for high-risk groups.[43]
Spain: Past national BCG vaccination policy for all from 1965 to 1981. [37]
United Kingdom: The UK introduced universal BCG immunization in 1953. From then until July 2005, UK policy was to immunize all school children aged between 10 and 14 years of age, and all neonates born into high-risk groups

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine


More from France24 - it looks like it's an idea without research so far:

- Experts remain cautious -

"We have known for decades that BCG has non-specific beneficial effects", in that it protects against diseases other than the one for which it was created, Camille Locht, of the French public health research institute Inserm, told AFP.

Children vaccinated with BCG suffer less from other respiratory illnesses, it is used to treat certain bladder cancers and it could protect against asthma and autoimmune diseases such as type 1 diabetes.

Researchers want to test whether the tuberculosis vaccine could have a similar effect against the new coronavirus, either by reducing the risk of being infected, or by limiting the severity of the symptoms.

In France, where the BCG vaccine was compulsory until 2007, "most of the study participants will have already had a first vaccination", but the protective effect of this decreases over time, said Locht.

Because healthcare workers are on the front lines of the efforts to tackle COVID-19, they should be the "first target" if there is any benefit found with the BCG vaccine, said Locht, who is finalising details for a clinical trial in France.

But experts remain cautious on the potential of the BCG to provide protection.

"That is exactly the reason for this research," says Mihai Netea, professor of experimental internal medicine at Radboud University in the Netherlands, which recently announced a clinical trial, with the University of Utrecht involving hundreds of healthcare workers.

This will see 500 medical professionals receive the BCG jab and 500 get a placebo.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200403-co ... m-covid-19
By Sivad
#15081809
Two thirds of coronavirus victims may have died this year anyway, government adviser says

Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.

But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... ar-anyway/
User avatar
By Ter
#15081813
Sivad wrote:by Sivad » Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.
But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year.


:lol:

This is now the umpteenth time that this kind of nonsense is peddled in these columns.

1. Define "old" and define "seriously ill"
(that is an important question because the doctors and nurses need to know who not to treat)
(so it is a kind of euthanasia ?)

2. It sucks to be in the one third of cases that are not "very old" or "seriously ill".

3. By repeatedly peddling the above nonsense the logical conclusion is not often mentioned.. no social distancing, opening up all businesses, schools and restaurants, and so on.
In view of the current morbidity and mortality occurring with all those measures in place, how would those figures look like if the authorities would heed the peddled nonsense ?

For god's sake, stop your nonsense, Savid.
By Sivad
#15081820
Why Covid-19 deaths are a substantial over-estimate

John Lee, consultant histopathologist at Rotherham General Hospital and formerly clinical professor of pathology at Hull York Medical School.

Next, what about the deaths? Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘Covid deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by Covid-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate – it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

This nuance is crucial ­– not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on the health service in coming days. Unfortunately nuance tends to be lost in the numbers quoted from the database being used to track Covid-19: the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. It has compiled a huge database, with Covid-19 data from all over the world, updated daily – and its figures are used, world over, to track the virus. This data is not standardised and so probably not comparable, yet this important caveat is seldom expressed by the (many) graphs we see. It risks exaggerating the quality of data that we have.

The distinction between dying ‘with’ Covid-19 and dying ‘due to’ Covid-19 is not just splitting hairs. Consider some examples: an 87-year-old woman with dementia in a nursing home; a 79-year-old man with metastatic bladder cancer; a 29-year-old man with leukaemia treated with chemotherapy; a 46-year-old woman with motor neurone disease for 2 years. All develop chest infections and die. All test positive for Covid-19. Yet all were vulnerable to death by chest infection from any infective cause (including the flu). Covid-19 might have been the final straw, but it has not caused their deaths. Consider two more cases: a 75-year-old man with mild heart failure and bronchitis; a 35-year-old woman who was previously fit and well with no known medical conditions. Both contract a chest infection and die, and both test positive for Covid-19. In the first case it is not entirely clear what weight to place on the pre-existing conditions versus the viral infection – to make this judgement would require an expert clinician to examine the case notes. The final case would reasonably be attributed to death caused by Covid-19, assuming it was true that there were no underlying conditions.

It should be noted that there is no international standard method for attributing or recording causes of death. Also, normally, most respiratory deaths never have a specific infective cause recorded, whereas at the moment one can expect all positive Covid-19 results associated with a death to be recorded. Again, this is not splitting hairs. Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had Covid-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to Covid-19, the Covid trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by Covid-19 – would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.

John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist.
By Patrickov
#15081828
Sivad wrote:Why Covid-19 deaths are a substantial over-estimate


The real deal here is that we have no effective antidote to it (yet), and its ability of infection is higher than flu.

Both it and SARS leave longtime consequences -- damage to lungs is not something to be taken easy. No need to make patients die to make a virus fearsome.
By Sivad
#15081832
Patrickov wrote:The real deal here is that we have no effective antidote to it (yet), and its ability of infection is higher than flu.

Both it and SARS leave longtime consequences -- damage to lungs is not something to be taken easy. No need to make patients die to make a virus fearsome.


none of that is the real deal.
By Patrickov
#15081834
Sivad wrote:none of that is the real deal.


Sorry, I see conspiracy theories even less relevant, even if they're real.

There are things that cannot be controlled by anybody, even for the most manipulative bastards.

P.S. This is mainly for Western countries other than Germany, who handled it very, very well. I still hold the stance that China at least holds manslaughter-like responsibility.
By Sivad
#15081844
SolarCross wrote:The UK has a high population density and a lot of people have been flouting the quarantine.


Yet they claim it's preventing half a million deaths. :lol:
#15081859
Prosthetic Conscience wrote:There has been research? Or speculation? This interview, for instance, seems to say "BCG vaccines can seem to help against other infections, perhaps it helps against this".



I didn't hear about how long any such advantage is supposed to last, either. BCG vaccines were common in the UK, for longer than in Germany:



More from France24 - it looks like it's an idea without research so far:

This is the research.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20042937v1
User avatar
By BeesKnee5
#15081922
Actually this is a better one.

70% of people in Castiglioni d'Adda, had antibodies when tested, these where volunteer blood donors so had no idea they would be tested for Covid-19. The town has 4600 population and lost 62 people ( 1.5%).

They are now close to reaching the numbers needed for herd immunity so we should expect the virus to die out.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15081938
BeesKnee5 wrote:Actually this is a better one.

70% of people in Castiglioni d'Adda, had antibodies when tested, these where volunteer blood donors so had no idea they would be tested for Covid-19. The town has 4600 population and lost 62 people ( 1.5%).

They are now close to reaching the numbers needed for herd immunity so we should expect the virus to die out.


Source?

Also, do you think we should raise the white flag?
User avatar
By Rancid
#15081943
BeesKnee5 wrote:Yes there is.
Plenty of evidence showing extended periods on a ventilator lead to significant problems later.


Source? Define extended period, and also, are COVID patients on ventilators for that extended period?

Everything I'd read say's that it's too early to tell.

Also, do you think we should raise the white flag?
#15081944
Rancid wrote:
Source? Define extended period, and also, are COVID patients on ventilators for that extended period?

Everything I'd read say's that it's too early to tell.

Also, do you think we should raise the white flag?


I have no idea what you are on about regarding a white flag.
  • 1
  • 20
  • 21
  • 22
  • 23
  • 24
  • 32

This speech alone is a better contribution to our […]

Murder is murder, no matter who the victim is, or[…]

Donald in the Bunker

You put so much false stuff on here that I don't […]

I can’t get the bandana dude clip to work. It'[…]