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By late
#15082244
jimjam wrote:
I think wealthy economists who had their wealthy parents pay for their Ivy League educations are seriously underestimating the trouble looming on the horizon. And I think it’s because they have no idea how average Americans are actually living. They have all the data in the world, but they don’t know how to interpret it. After all, things are looking so rosy from their family’s 3rd multi-million dollar estate in the picturesque mountains in Aspen, Colorado. Therefore it must be rosy for everyone else...



Yes and no.

There has been a movement inside economics pushing to deal with income inequality. I talk about Stiglitz because he's the easiest to read, but there's Piketty and Brad Delong and others.

https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2020/02/13/whats-wrong-with-inequality

But overall, economics does tends to attract Right wingers.

I wonder when that coffee shop will open back up?
#15082253
late wrote:1) Answering my question would have been rather awkward for you... Going by what you've said, we're Commies, England is Commie, is there a country besides Somalia that isn't Commie???

The US and UK are mixed economies.

late wrote:2) Letting a part of the populace go without health care helps spread the disease. This is what is known as a fact.

Diseases do not avoid people with health insurance. Infection transmission has nothing to do with health coverage.

late wrote:3) You are proposing economic armageddon. Dumping dollars would be the obvious response.

We're in economic armageddon, because the political response to coronavirus is to lock down the entire global economy. Thanks Chinese communist party!

late wrote:4) That was an example of how the disruption would hit people hard. It is probable your economic suicide attempt would set off what economists fear most, a fast deflationary spiral into a great depression.

:roll: The response to coronavirus is far more severe than decoupling trade with China would be. As noted, trade is only about 7% of US GDP, and most of that is with Canada and Mexico.

late wrote:5) Buying long term contracts would allow them to cushion the blow while still dumping dollars. If you think China couldn't negotiate better terms...

I'm saying it makes no sense to buy oil at $50 a barrel long term when you can buy it at $25 a barrel short term. People who have storage capacity are buying oil hand over fist and selling futures contracts two years out.

late wrote:6) Even you should be able to figure out the fix for that one.

Easy. Mandate that a certain percentage of all medical device, equipment and pharmaceutical purchases be made in the US. That would allow imports of all the same, less the percentage required to be domestically sourced. It would allow domestic producers to export and foreign producers to import. However, the supply chains should also be diversified. Mandate a limit on the percentage of devices coming from any foreign country. That way you have thorough diversification. You have to prevent capitalists from arguing for the lowest cost and creating strategic bottlenecks for times like these.

late wrote:Again, no one supports your crazy...

Oh. So Donald Trump is president, because the majority of America is racist. I see now. :roll: :knife:

late wrote:I've asked you this before, find me people with skin in the game that are advocating economic suicide.

Donald Trump owns hotels and golf resorts. He's taking a bath. Gavin Newsom owns bars/restaurants. He's taking a bath. There are a lot of business owners who don't want to die of coronavirus and yet are getting killed economically with the response to coronavirus.

jimjam wrote:Adding to the bubble was corporations buying back their own stock, unnecessary FED rate cuts, and access to low interest loans.

The Fed was trying to raise rates and reduce their balance sheet at the same time. It was creating a lack of liquidity in the corporate bond market. In other words, cutting rates became necessary.

jimjam wrote:A bubble ready to burst. Folks who had profited handsomely from this scheme used the pandemic as an excuse to sell equities before the bubble burst.

I sold in September 2018 and sat on cash. I'm buying now.

jimjam wrote:And I think it’s because they have no idea how average Americans are actually living.

They have a tough choice. Create the next great depression deliberately by the response to coronavirus, or let the aged and chronically ill self-quarantine and hope that there aren't too many deaths. Personally, I don't think the lockdown will hold. The reason Trump is president in the first place is that people do not trust the political class of either party.
By late
#15082264
blackjack21 wrote:
1) The US and UK are mixed economies.


2) Infection transmission has nothing to do with health coverage.


3) We're in economic armageddon


4) The response to coronavirus is far more severe than decoupling trade with China would be.


5) Easy. Mandate that a certain percentage of all medical device, equipment and pharmaceutical purchases be made in the US.





1) As is China. You don't want to answer the question because it would rip the guts out of your comedy routine.

2) More fiction...

"The degree of financial coverage for health care is not an issue with regard to the initial outbreak of infectious diseases. But it can accelerate the spread to the extent that the initial people affected delay getting tested and getting their symptoms diagnosed because they lack insurance coverage or have no regular source of care. This is the added complication and challenge we have in the U.S."

https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/03/10/americas-health-insurance-gaps-could-speed-spread-of-coronavirus/

"Historical accounts of influenza pandemics and contemporary reports on infectious diseases clearly demonstrate that poverty, inequality, and social determinants of health create conditions for the transmission of infectious diseases, and existing health disparities or inequalities can further contribute to unequal burdens of morbidity and mortality."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4170985/

3) I guess somebody has no idea what they're talking about.

4) It would take time for manufacturers to replace the things they get from China. While they wait, the rest of the world would eat our lunch.

5) That is a quota, not a ban. So are we in full retreat, or are you just flailing blindly. Pick one.

You didn't find anyone that agrees with you because there isn't anyone of any importance that would.
#15082273
late wrote:1) As is China. You don't want to answer the question because it would rip the guts out of your comedy routine.

IMHO the issue with China is not so much the involvement of the government in the economy but in the philosophy of that government and their basically hostile intentions towards anyone who is not them which happens to include the better part of their own populace. It would be better if their economics were less like ours and more like that of Mao if only because the economic trainwreck that is Maoism made the CPC LESS of a threat because economic power precedes military power. The problem with China is that it is ruled by the CPC not that it is somewhere on the "mixed economy" spectrum. The CPC is strengthened by its mixed economy.
By late
#15082274
SolarCross wrote:
The problem with China is that it is ruled by the CPC not that it is somewhere on the "mixed economy" spectrum. The CPC is strengthened by its mixed economy.



IOW, you were lying, and you knew you were lying, all those times you said Commie...

I admit it's nowhere near as satisfying (and that does play a role in my deliberations) but the correct word is autocracy. I wouldn't object to dictator. Which is a lot more satisfying than autocrat.

Autocrat sounds like tarted up overpriced booze. Or a smart sex toy. (Now with feedback!)
#15082281
late wrote:IOW, you were lying, and you knew you were lying, all those times you said Commie...

I admit it's nowhere near as satisfying (and that does play a role in my deliberations) but the correct word is autocracy. I wouldn't object to dictator. Which is a lot more satisfying than autocrat.

Autocrat sounds like tarted up overpriced booze. Or a smart sex toy. (Now with feedback!)

Communism = One party totalitarian autocracy. The CPC (the clue is in the name) are still communists, just because they are using capitalism to strengthen themselves does not make them less communist. We were fools to think otherwise.
#15082285
Rancid wrote:The markets are up today.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I guess what matters is why they are up... If it is only because the FED dumped a trillion faked up dollars into it then it did not really go up. It's just a signal of currency depreciation.
#15082286
Rancid wrote:@jimjam, why haven't you sacrificed yourself to our 401ks yet?

I was wondering about that. Please post all relevant #'s pertaining to your 401k including various passwords so I can transfer my vast wealth to your account. By posting publicly you will motivate other pofo'ers to do likewise.
#15082287
SolarCross wrote:I guess what matters is why they are up... If it is only because the FED dumped a trillion faked up dollars into it then it did not really go up. It's just a signal of currency depreciation.


They are up because NY is reporting that their new case rate has flatten over the last two days, meaning their case rate appears to have stop accelerating. Of course, two days is too early to tell, but Italy/Spain saw similar flattening recently as well.

jimjam wrote:I was wondering about that. Please post all relevant #'s pertaining to your 401k including various passwords so I can transfer my vast wealth to your account. By posting publicly you will motivate other pofo'ers to do likewise.


Perfect. Thanks.
By late
#15082297
SolarCross wrote:
Communism = One party totalitarian autocracy. The CPC (the clue is in the name) are still communists, just because they are using capitalism to strengthen themselves does not make them less communist. We were fools to think otherwise.



China has gone through major changes, I wouldn't call any of them Communist.

Mao was a dictator, when he died it was run by the bureaucracy. Now Xi is at the least an autocrat.

Our relationship with China is quite convoluted. We have a number of priorities some of which are contradictory.

We want to make China a peaceful partner. At the same time, we need to find a way to allow them to expand their hegemony without letting them become the regional bully. That's a lot harder than it sounds.

We need them to adopt Western standards in a lot of things, like disease reporting. They are doing better with IP protection, but they could stand to do even better. Of course, so could the USA.

China needs to start acting like a mature economy. But that's not going to happen for a while thanks to the virus. Low prices are going to look a lot less attractive for some things. So they will focus on market share with what they can sell.
#15082300
late wrote:China has gone through major changes, I wouldn't call any of them Communist.

Mao was a dictator, when he died it was run by the bureaucracy. Now Xi is at the least an autocrat.

Our relationship with China is quite convoluted. We have a number of priorities some of which are contradictory.

We want to make China a peaceful partner. At the same time, we need to find a way to allow them to expand their hegemony without letting them become the regional bully. That's a lot harder than it sounds.

We need them to adopt Western standards in a lot of things, like disease reporting. They are doing better with IP protection, but they could stand to do even better. Of course, so could the USA.

China needs to start acting like a mature economy. But that's not going to happen for a while thanks to the virus. Low prices are going to look a lot less attractive for some things. So they will focus on market share with what they can sell.


They still call themselves communist though and they do not care about your opinion. You called me a liar for calling the Communist Party of China commies.... Care to take that back now?

Also we absolutely do not need them to increase their hegemony! THAT IS INSANE! If anything we should want them to give up Tibet, free Hong Kong and let Taiwan be. East asia has dozens of much better behaved guardians of the east: south korea, taiwan, singapore, japan... If we want a regional hegemon it should be a coalition of them not filthy CPC. Whose side are you on, seriously?! You are looking more and more like a literal bought and paid for shill of the CPC like that WHO guy Dr Aylward. Come clean now.
#15082302
jimjam wrote:I found the economic collapse rather easily predicted: An unhealthy (for society) proportion of the wealth has been flowing to the top 1% for some time now. A fake "prosperity" held together by abject greed and debt is being sold to the peons. A low unemployment rate held up by low paying shit jobs. It was simply a matter of time before the whole farce fell thru the ice and ……………. nothing like a worldwide epidemic to end the party. This is a bad one. We are living thru history. Poor Obese Donald. He thought that all he had to do was brag about his fake prosperity and endlessly insult whoever the Dems came up with. Now he is faced with endless opportunities to display his incompetence.


Very much. The situation has been deteriorating for quite a long time now. It was as you say held up on very artificial grounds. It is the same in the UK where the economy doesn't really rest on much production, it's a largely service based economy with a lot of unequal wages and terrible working conditions. There is a growing amount of working poor that the political class are simply ignoring with years of austerity and outdated Thatcherite economic solutions.
By late
#15082305
SolarCross wrote:
1) They still call themselves communist though and they do not care about your opinion. You called me a liar for calling the Communist Party of China commies.... Care to take that back now?

2) Also we absolutely do not need them to increase their hegemony! THAT IS INSANE!

3) If we want a regional hegemon it should be a coalition of them not filthy CPC.



1) I called you out for trying to have it both ways.

2) There is peace and there is war. Your call.

3) Trump blew that straight to hell. Even Japan is sucking up to China now. Our standing in Asia is considerably diminished, we have a lot of work to do repairing our relationships in the region before we can even think about playing any games.
#15082307
late wrote:1) I called you out for trying to have it both ways.

2) There is peace and there is war. Your call.

3) Trump blew that straight to hell. Even Japan is sucking up to China now. Our standing in Asia is considerably diminished, we have a lot of work to do repairing our relationships in the region before we can even think about playing any games.

Bull shit. Answer my question as to your allegiences. Are you serving as a shill for the CPC, yes or no?
#15082316
blackjack21 wrote:China is industrialist, run by a communist party.


Nevertheless, your point that national health systems are somehow better in a pandemic has proven false.


I will concede that you aren't done whining about Donald Trump.


Science is just a method of knowledge. Scientists don't necessarily "know" more than everyone else.


Not necessarily. If they dump dollars, they destroy the competitiveness of their export markets.


So? Out of season fruits and so forth are nice, but they aren't necessities.


Not likely. During the Great Depression, food prices were depressed.


It's not suicidal. Only 7% of US GDP involves merchandise trade. We're not as dependent on trade as China (40% of GDP), Germany (50% of GDP), etc.


Right. The crude oil market is in massive contango. If China were smart, they would be using US dollar reserves to buy and store as much crude oil as they can.


Buying long-term contracts would be idiotic when they can buy oil for 50% off in the spot market. Everyone who can is buying crude at spot and selling long-term contracts at $50+ a barrel. :roll:


I really don't care about Trump or how many lies he tells. I care about policies.


:roll: I've never said he wasn't a capitalist. I've said he's not part of the Washington establishment--which is precisely why they hate him.


For my purposes, yes.


Uh huh, and that's why they made up the phony Russia narrative, right?


And yet your are so understanding of the Chinese Communist Party...


Yes, but your main lament is Donald Trump. Most major cities in the US are run by Democrats. They are in control of most of the first responders. That's where the first stage of crisis planning starts; then, it involves the state government. The federal government is a last resort. The federal government can make up for short falls and a loss of critical supplies in local disasters. It doesn't maintain a stockpile for every business in the entire country.

I've worked in supply chain management. I know how they think. Unused inventory is considered a misallocation of capital--waste. That's why they don't have the supplies on hand. They even started moving medical device manufacturing overseas to evade the ObamaCare medical device tax. You can just scream "greed" if that makes you feel better, but it is not going to help shape behavior.


You're fighting the reptilian brain, which your man says always wins. You basically need to sell disaster preparedness as greed by showing the financial losses associated with being unprepared.



Relampaguito you like Trump's policies and his administration skills? Yes or no? You like his chaotic bullshit? Yes or no?

BJ I will never under any circumstances be endorsing greed over human life. You continue in your love affair with greed. I hate it. My policies are not about greed BJ. It is about the reality that humans produce wealth in the USA and around the world. Distribute it according to human need and human abilities. To each their needs and their abilities. Many people are going to die in this pandemic. The work load is going to increase. Allowing these greedy elites to continue on in their merry way without a sense of obligation to the unemployed and the ones falling behind due to shuttered small businesses, restaurants, and service industries is a recipe for disaster.

My point about nationalism sucking has not been addressed by you. In a pandemic internationalism is vital. Again, the virus moves through the group and it has no distinction about national boundaries because our economic systems are interdependent on travel and interrelatedness to our currencies and trade relationships. Capitalism has forced internationalism. So your America first stuff is not going to cope well with that system that controls the world. I don't care how many excuses you come up with. It won't work.

The Communist Party in the PRC is authoritarian and it also has another system. The USA did not isolate itself from the PRC. It punishes Cuba pettily and Venezuela and other nations who are not the PRC. Sellout mentality is the same all over the world. I have said that if the USA in its low life nastiness sells Puerto Rico to the PRC to cancel some debt that the pro statehood assholes will start saying how someday we can be a part of the PRC and how we must let these people run the show and they got to take control because they know best. Why did I say that BJ? Because that is the mentality that is out there. I don't think trading one oppressive colonial relationship for another one is the best strategy. Spain to the USA, USA to PRC. And another hundred years of no control. That is being foolish. You gain control and sovereignty and you negotiate the best you can.

I hate all of that mentality. I don't say one is better and the other is not. All forms of lack of freedom are bad. If you hate me because I hate capitalism? I welcome the hatred. It is an awful greedy beast. It is killing people right now because they lose jobs, they lose health insurance and your pig liar president tool isn't allowing people to even buy Obamacare on the open market. So? What are they going to do now? If they don't get socialized free care for this Corona pandemic? You endorse that shit? The son of a doctor? You endorse death via lack of funds by being unemployed during a shutdown of the nation because greed has to come first? Is that how fucking MARRIED you are to pro capitalism BJ?

Take a position BJ. because socialized medicine is coming. And it is coming to STAY.
#15082329
Disaster capitalism:
#15082391
late wrote:1) As is China. You don't want to answer the question because it would rip the guts out of your comedy routine.

China is a totalitarian country, which you seem to like quite a lot.

late wrote:2) More fiction...

Your argument is just dumb. There is no virus that has the wherewithal to check whether someone has health insurance or not and then make a decision to infect the person with no coverage. Your assertion is way outside of the scientific method.

late wrote:"The degree of financial coverage for health care is not an issue with regard to the initial outbreak of infectious diseases. But it can accelerate the spread to the extent that the initial people affected delay getting tested and getting their symptoms diagnosed because they lack insurance coverage or have no regular source of care. This is the added complication and challenge we have in the U.S."

A non-issue. The US government has agreed to pay for coronavirus treatment for the uninsured even at private hospitals. Additionally, FEMA has set up all sorts of temporary hospitals to treat the sick free of charge.

late wrote:3) I guess somebody has no idea what they're talking about.

That's you looking in the mirror.

late wrote:4) It would take time for manufacturers to replace the things they get from China. While they wait, the rest of the world would eat our lunch.

It would. It took decades to create this problem, and it may take decades to undo it.

late wrote:5) That is a quota, not a ban. So are we in full retreat, or are you just flailing blindly. Pick one.

You take everything I say and generalize it. So there is no "we" in this statement. I talk about tariffs against China, and you turn that into general tariffs like Smoot-Hawley. It's rather pointless converse with you on the merits other than to correct your mindless distortions.

late wrote:You didn't find anyone that agrees with you because there isn't anyone of any importance that would.

Just turn on the business news and you will find more and more people very angry at the Chinese Communist Party and what they did to the global economy.

late wrote:IOW, you were lying, and you knew you were lying, all those times you said Commie...

The commies call themselves commies. That's why its the Chinese Communist Party, or Communist Party of China if you prefer.

SolarCross wrote:The CPC (the clue is in the name) are still communists

He's no Sherlock Holmes...

late wrote:At the same time, we need to find a way to allow them to expand their hegemony without letting them become the regional bully.

We do not need to do any such thing at all.

late wrote:But that's not going to happen for a while thanks to the virus.

Viruses do not force communist bureaucrats to lie to the World Health Organization.

SolarCross wrote:They still call themselves communist though and they do not care about your opinion. You called me a liar for calling the Communist Party of China commies.... Care to take that back now?

My guess is that he won't.

SolarCross wrote:Also we absolutely do not need them to increase their hegemony! THAT IS INSANE! If anything we should want them to give up Tibet, free Hong Kong and let Taiwan be. East asia has dozens of much better behaved guardians of the east: south korea, taiwan, singapore, japan... If we want a regional hegemon it should be a coalition of them not filthy CPC.

Exactly. Communism needs to finally be placed on the ash heap of history along with the reputations of the people who proposed free trade with China.

SolarCross wrote:Whose side are you on, seriously?! You are looking more and more like a literal bought and paid for shill of the CPC like that WHO guy Dr Aylward. Come clean now.

He seems to have quite an affinity for advancing the interests of the Chinese Communist Party.

Tainari88 wrote:Relampaguito you like Trump's policies and his administration skills? Yes or no?

I would prefer Trump to Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden any day of the week. Could we do better? Sure. However, better candidates aren't in the race.

Tainari88 wrote:You like his chaotic bullshit? Yes or no?

I'm fine with it for the same reason that James Mattis liked his "chaos" call sign.

Tainari88 wrote:Allowing these greedy elites to continue on in their merry way without a sense of obligation to the unemployed and the ones falling behind due to shuttered small businesses, restaurants, and service industries is a recipe for disaster.

The elites are the ones ordering the businesses shut. You need to make a clearer distinction between what is happening and what you would like to happen.

Tainari88 wrote:Capitalism has forced internationalism. So your America first stuff is not going to cope well with that system that controls the world.

A number of lying thugs pushed free trade with a communist country that has now collapsed the travel and hospitality industries and is now on the verge of collapsing the banking industry if the lockdown continues and tenants refuse to pay rent and homeowners elect to default on mortgages. You can pretend to be naive about the financial implications of a shutdown, but that will not make the economic suffering of the poor become even worse.

Tainari88 wrote:The USA did not isolate itself from the PRC. It punishes Cuba pettily and Venezuela and other nations who are not the PRC. Sellout mentality is the same all over the world.

I don't disagree. That's why I left the Republican party. They had as much a hand in trade with China as Bill Clinton did.

Tainari88 wrote:It is killing people right now because they lose jobs, they lose health insurance and your pig liar president tool isn't allowing people to even buy Obamacare on the open market.

What policy action has Trump taken to prevent people from purchasing insurance?

Tainari88 wrote:If they don't get socialized free care for this Corona pandemic?

They do get free care for coronavirus.

Tainari88 wrote:Take a position BJ. because socialized medicine is coming. And it is coming to STAY.

After watching what is happening in Europe with all their nationalized health services, I don't think most Americans are too impressed.
#15082431
late wrote:Yes, dumping their dollars would hurt China, as well as America. But cutting off all trade would be a disaster for China. It's the only counter-move they would have, and they would use it.

They don't get their oil from the USA, last time I looked, they were getting it from the ME. They could, and prob would, use those dollars to buy long term contracts. They have a good relationship with the Saudi.


I mean the United States still controls transport of oil around the world, not necessarily that they are primary supplier. Besides, I heard that refining technology and capacity are both very important matter too. Assuming these are true (sorry I did not bother to find proof), these are what US Dollar credibility is based on. Until all these having alternatives, dumping US dollar will not hurt the US at all.
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