[Rancid]

FOr the cases that result in death, does anyone know how many days typically pass between first day of symptoms until death?

[ness31]

My totally unscientific opinion is about 3 weeks. It’s a long and drawn out death by the looks of things.

[Tainari88]

FOr the cases that result in death, does anyone know how many days typically pass between first day of symptoms until death?

Well, filling out my fateful day.com information they tell me my fateful day if I don't change my habits will be the year 2039. But if Corona gets me? It incubates anywhere between 3 to 10 days, then symptoms and then another fourteen. So about 24 days. 80% recover within two to three weeks. The ones who are hospitalized and need the ICU. About half make it out of the ICU. The other half who don't improve and move to ventilator is eighty percent chance of death.

[ThirdTerm]

New York's social distancing order is unscientific and an embarrassment, which requires everyone to keep 6 feet of from each other in public. Police officers are enforcing it like Muslims cracking down on violators of the Islamic dress code. New research suggests 6 feet of social distancing may not be enough. COVID-19 could be aerosol-transmitted, which means the tiny particles that carry the virus stay in the air much longer than previously thought. When a person coughs or sneezes, germs travel about 6 feet. However, germs that carry viruses can travel much farther to 20 feet away by breathing or talking. Simply wearing a surgical mask is the best defence if you have to go out for grocery shopping in an affected area.

Abstract
Lack of evidence on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics has led to shifting isolation guidelines between airborne and droplet isolation precautions. During the initial isolation of 13 individuals confirmed positive with COVID-19 infection, air and surface samples were collected in eleven isolation rooms to examine viral shedding from isolated individuals. While all individuals were confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2, symptoms and viral shedding to the environment varied considerably. Many commonly used items, toilet facilities, and air samples had evidence of viral contamination, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is shed to the environment as expired particles, during toileting, and through contact with fomites. Disease spread through both direct (droplet and person-to-person) as well as indirect contact (contaminated objects and airborne transmission) are indicated, supporting the use of airborne isolation precautions.

Although this study did not employ any size-fractionation techniques in order to determine the size 25 range of SARS-CoV-2 droplets and particles, the data is suggestive that viral aerosol particles are produced by individuals that have the COVID-19 disease, even in the absence of cough. First, in the few instances where the distance between individuals in isolation and air sampling could be confidently maintained at greater than 6 ft, 2 of the 3 air samples were positive for viral RNA. Second, 66.7% of hallway air samples indicate that virus-containing particles were being 30 transported from the rooms to the hallway during sampling activities. It is likely that the positive air samples in the hallway were cause by viral aerosol particles transported by aersonnel exiting the room (16,17). Finally, personal air samplers worn by sampling personnel were all positive for SARS-CoV-2, despite the absence of cough by most patients while sampling personnel were present.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20039446v2

[foxdemon]

That sounds very much like NZ until very recently.


I'm still hoping Australia will end up choosing elimination as well.

I don’t think the government has made a definite decision. But if our Asian trade partners go that way, which it looks like they are, then the Oz government will have to do so.

What happens if Europe and North America fail to contain the virus and thus can’t eradicate it, but East Asia does eradicate the virus? Will Oz and NZ end up in the East Asian block?

This article in the NZ Medical Journal sheds some light on the decision making in NZ (and in passing that of other countries as well):

This provides an answer to some questions I've had for some time. It also explains why almost all western countries, including NZ at first, have acted quite similarly. The deviations from the default pandemic plans, which are based on influenza, are to some extent a function of each government's responsiveness to new information.

That is a very good explanation. I have been very critical of Australia’s response but it is to be expected that bureaucracies would struggle with a situation they are unfamiliar with. Am I being too harsh on them?

Of course, as the article points out, if our plan doesn't work, we might still have to go for mitigation/suppression eventually.

At least, we may not be spared more lock down measures in the future, considering Singapore has had to introduce stricter measures a few days ago as well: https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/circuit-breaker-to-minimise-further-spread-of-covid-19

NZ lockdown rules look stricter than the rules in Oz. We are a federation though, so the rules vary between states.

[Hindsite]

New York's social distancing order is unscientific and an embarrassment, which requires everyone to keep 6 feet of from each other in public. Police officers are enforcing it like Muslims cracking down on violators of the Islamic dress code. New research suggests 6 feet of social distancing may not be enough. COVID-19 could be aerosol-transmitted, which means the tiny particles that carry the virus stay in the air much longer than previously thought. When a person coughs or sneezes, germs travel about 6 feet. However, germs that carry viruses can travel much farther to 20 feet away by breathing or talking. Simply wearing a surgical mask is the best defence if you have to go out for grocery shopping in an affected area.

I have several masks that I bought several years ago for yard work and such. Would they be of any help against the virus?

Plenty of Brexiteers in the Tory camp. Raab for one. But he is getting the best care so don't write him off yet.

Good luck to him and all the victims in the next few months. He's a Clown but doesn't deserve this I guess.

I hope they try the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine on him.

Hydroxychloroquine rated 'most effective therapy' by doctors for coronavirus: Global survey

An international poll of more than 6,000 doctors released Thursday found that the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was the most highly rated treatment for the novel coronavirus.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... herapy-do/

[Godstud]

@Hindsite The masks you got are likely only for particulates and not good enough vs a virus. You need N95. Mind you, anything is better than nothing.

[Hindsite]

@Hindsite The masks you got are likely only for particulates and not good enough vs a virus. You need N95. Mind you, anything is better than nothing.

Yes you are right. I looked on the package for the masks and it says Particulate Mask Dust/Nuisance Mask RST-54000.

[Rich]

Would be cool if he dies.

I suspect a number of cabinet ministers will share your sentiments. "If the ball were to come free from the scrum" as Boris himself put it. A time of acute crisis always produces the threat of a rival emerging and outshining the Prime Minister. This is why Dominic Raab has been asked to deputise, aside from the Xi virus itself, Hancock is clearly the main threat to Boris. Whenever people start talking about "This isn't a time for politics" you can be pretty show that this is a time of intense political struggle.

[AFAIK]

Yes you are right. I looked on the package for the masks and it says Particulate Mask Dust/Nuisance Mask RST-54000.

Wearing this mask will allow you to keep your germs to yourself. If everyone wears similar masks then everyone gets protected from one another. The N95 masks restrict oxygen flows so can not be worn for prolonged periods. Medical workers also get fitted masks to minimise gaps where germs can slip in.

[Godstud]

The N95 masks restrict oxygen flows so can not be worn for prolonged periods.

Partially true. Oxygen molecules pass easily thru the mask, but you shouldn't wear them for more than a few hours at a time without a break.

I wore them(N95 masks) for years at a plastic manufacturing plant, where we used them exclusively. 6 hours a day for years. Naturally, on breaks we removed them.

Fit is important, but where I worked, we weren't concerned with a virus, and so didn't worry too much about that. Of course, not having facial hair is key to a tight seal.

Here is some information on that(a study) if you care to look.

Effects of long-duration wearing of N95 respirator
and surgical facemask: a pilot study
http://medcraveonline.com/JLPRR/JLPRR-01-00021.pdf

[Rancid]

I suspect a number of cabinet ministers will share your sentiments. "If the ball were to come free from the scrum" as Boris himself put it. A time of acute crisis always produces the threat of a rival emerging and outshining the Prime Minister. This is why Dominic Raab has been asked to deputise, aside from the Xi virus itself, Hancock is clearly the main threat to Boris. Whenever people start talking about "This isn't a time for politics" you can be pretty show that this is a time of intense political struggle.

Irony is, that many of the same people that would complain about say, the US (or Russia, or China for that matter) using this crisis for advancing a political agenda (as all nations do), are the same people that are hoping Boris dies, for... none other than political reasons.

Funny, huh? However, I think this comes from people that simply don't know how to think practically/realistically and think too highly of themselves (and don't realize it).

[Tainari88]

Irony is, that many of the same people that would complain about say, the US (or Russia, or China for that matter) using this crisis for advancing a political agenda (as all nations do), are the same people that are hoping Boris dies, for... none other than political reasons.

Funny, huh? However, I think this comes from people that simply don't know how to think practically/realistically and think too highly of themselves (and don't realize it).

I am having a good time playing a lot with my boy. I am his only playmate. Hee hee. He is reading his books to me out loud.

I ran out of gas for my stove. I got to call the gas replacement folks.

Boris Johnson is not well liked by his enemies. Politics is about people acting foolishly. Shaking hands is not good.

[Rancid]

I am having a good time playing a lot with my boy. I am his only playmate. Hee hee. He is reading his books to me out loud.

I ran out of gas for my stove. I got to call the gas replacement folks.

That's good to hear. We are doing a lot of at home instruction for my son. My daughter just likes to do whatever her big brother does.

Boris Johnson is not well liked by his enemies. Politics is about people acting foolishly. Shaking hands is not good.

Such is the life of a politician. not being liked, and doing stupid shit.

[Rancid]

@late
The latest US models are now saying about 81000 dead. I recall you started a thread where you said it will be way worse than 100,000 deaths. What is your expert opinion on these models?

[colliric]

President Trump is defunding the WHO and correctly accused it of being too cozy with the communist party.

[Rancid]

https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1247647587492073474?s=19



President Trump is defunding the WHO and correctly accused it of being too cozy with the communist party.

Trump is definitely getting re-elected.

[Drlee]

He sure will. His drones will eat this up.

That said.

I do not think it is incorrect to see the WHO as to cozy with China. Should he withhold money in the midst of the greatest pandemic in 100 years? Of course not. He could force the resignation of the leader of the WHO just to make a point.

It is about time though that we realize that China is not some backwater country. It is a major player in the world and will receive the same deference any economic or military superpower has always had. Deference that we use to our advantage frequently.

Trump does not do empathy. He does not do sympathy. The fact that his withholding money could kill tens of thousands of people won't matter to him one whit.

Sadly, his followers will not care either. For the most part they are uncaring, xenophobic and generally not smart enough to see how this decision to withhold money during a pandemic will take lives never mind damaging the US's reputation in the world.

Meanwhile civilized countries like China and Cuba are sending massive aid to help fight this pandemic. Trump on the other hand is trying to keep 3M from selling masks to Canada.

The behavior of Trump and his followers borders on genocidal. (And I do not use that term lightly.)

[Rich]

never mind damaging the US's reputation in the world.

Personally for me the fact that Trump's not going to allow America to be cucked by the WHO only increases the US's reputation. I could be wrong but I suspect I'm not the only non American that feels this way. With our own British government being such craven lackeys of the Chinese fascist regime we need you to stay strong for us Mr Trump.

I some how missed the clap for Boris episode earlier. I see J. K Rowling has said the PM's illness is yet more proof that this virus doesn't discriminate, which is kind of odd, because there seem to more and more complaints coming out of Illinois, Detroit and the like, that in fact this virus is discriminating rather badly.

[Hindsite]

Trump does not do empathy. He does not do sympathy. The fact that his withholding money could kill tens of thousands of people won't matter to him one whit.

Sadly, his followers will not care either. For the most part they are uncaring, xenophobic and generally not smart enough to see how this decision to withhold money during a pandemic will take lives never mind damaging the US's reputation in the world.

You clearly have a bad case of Trump derangement syndrome if you actually believe all that nonsense you wrote.

Meanwhile civilized countries like China and Cuba...

More nonsense.

The behavior of Trump and his followers borders on genocidal. (And I do not use that term lightly.)

That is craziness.