" Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response" - Page 174 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15105007
Wulfschilde wrote:Almost none of these people are going to die. Aside from the median age being as low as 28 or 29 in some cases, there's a variety of test types being carried out, such as antibody tests which can give a positive even if someone already recovered.

100% of those people are going to die. All of us die.
Also, death is not the only problem. Just using the hospital beds even if there is a 99% chance of recovering could lead to other people not having the bed available and/or delay of care.
They can infect other people.
They might recover with long-lasting health problems. The degree of lung damage that we see on CT scan hints that this might lead to long-term scaring. The problem is, "long term" means we will need a few years to even see this happen.
The other thing is... what is the quality of life of those that had a serious disease but didn't die. From time to time we have young patients that "died" multiple times but we managed to resuscitate. As it happens, young people are better equipped to "survive" after a cardiac arrest with aggressive interventions, on top of that, medical profesionals usually go above and beyond for these patients because we know they are more likely, and perhaps in a macabre way, they have "more to lose" than the equivalent 70year old guy with a cancer and copd. As a result, we might skew those that "survive". That is not to say that for some, their quality of life won't be just as bad it not worse than dying.
In every hospital I have ever worked or served there is always a handful of "abandoned" patients. These are patients that a long time ago arrived to the hospital with a gunshot wound to the head (suicide, accident or intentional) or overdosed on some sort of drug (accidental vs intentional) and have severe brain damage, persistent vegetative state. In many cases, they "died" multiple times for over 30mins, sometimes 40 mins each time when they were REALLY sick but we were "able" to "bring them back". Ofcourse, at that point, it is hard to know how much of the person we can save, so we try anyway, often more than we should. The sad part, many of these people end up being perennial hospital residents because they never leave once they are stable. Family cannot take care of a vegetative person and often times they have no insurance. So these people end up living in the hospital for months or even years. Every few weeks they get a hospital-related infection, they spend a few days in the ICU getting megadoses of antibiotics, and often time stabilizes. This cycle repeats itself many times, eventually we start so see more complications, abscesses, resistant infections, bowel perforations, GI bleeds, etc and then they start getting surgeries and procedures to deal with those. And the cycle continues until eventually, they die from some sort of overwhelming infection or some other complication. The other day in my news feed there was a story of a young guy that have been fighting coronavirus for months and had leg amputated due to complications. This story made it to the news because the guy was some sort of fashion/celebrity or something of the sort.
Yes, young people can survive it more often than old people. The same way that young people can survive a motorcycle accident more often than an old one... The problem is... the sequelae is often pretty bad as well.

The whole world (except us) took this seriously for a reason... Stop pretending, you are only harming yourself and those that you love.
#15105011
Wulfschilde wrote:Almost none of these people are going to die.


There are still more than 600 people dying every day from Covid in the US alone. With the trend in the current new infections rate, you'll be back to 2,000 deaths a day within two to three weeks. That's more than during the Spanish flue.

In the meantime, the 2nd lockdown will sink the economy.

Image
#15105036
Atlantis wrote:There are still more than 600 people dying every day from Covid in the US alone. With the trend in the current new infections rate, you'll be back to 2,000 deaths a day within two to three weeks.

OK we'll remember that, 2000 deaths guaranteed by Saturday the 25th? I'll happily bet £2000 against, at fifty fifty odds on that one.
Last edited by Rich on 04 Jul 2020 16:33, edited 1 time in total.
#15105058
XogGyux wrote:100% of those people are going to die. All of us die.
Also, death is not the only problem. Just using the hospital beds even if there is a 99% chance of recovering could lead to other people not having the bed available and/or delay of care.
They can infect other people.
They might recover with long-lasting health problems. The degree of lung damage that we see on CT scan hints that this might lead to long-term scaring. The problem is, "long term" means we will need a few years to even see this happen.
The other thing is... what is the quality of life of those that had a serious disease but didn't die. From time to time we have young patients that "died" multiple times but we managed to resuscitate. As it happens, young people are better equipped to "survive" after a cardiac arrest with aggressive interventions, on top of that, medical profesionals usually go above and beyond for these patients because we know they are more likely, and perhaps in a macabre way, they have "more to lose" than the equivalent 70year old guy with a cancer and copd. As a result, we might skew those that "survive". That is not to say that for some, their quality of life won't be just as bad it not worse than dying.
In every hospital I have ever worked or served there is always a handful of "abandoned" patients. These are patients that a long time ago arrived to the hospital with a gunshot wound to the head (suicide, accident or intentional) or overdosed on some sort of drug (accidental vs intentional) and have severe brain damage, persistent vegetative state. In many cases, they "died" multiple times for over 30mins, sometimes 40 mins each time when they were REALLY sick but we were "able" to "bring them back". Ofcourse, at that point, it is hard to know how much of the person we can save, so we try anyway, often more than we should. The sad part, many of these people end up being perennial hospital residents because they never leave once they are stable. Family cannot take care of a vegetative person and often times they have no insurance. So these people end up living in the hospital for months or even years. Every few weeks they get a hospital-related infection, they spend a few days in the ICU getting megadoses of antibiotics, and often time stabilizes. This cycle repeats itself many times, eventually we start so see more complications, abscesses, resistant infections, bowel perforations, GI bleeds, etc and then they start getting surgeries and procedures to deal with those. And the cycle continues until eventually, they die from some sort of overwhelming infection or some other complication. The other day in my news feed there was a story of a young guy that have been fighting coronavirus for months and had leg amputated due to complications. This story made it to the news because the guy was some sort of fashion/celebrity or something of the sort.
Yes, young people can survive it more often than old people. The same way that young people can survive a motorcycle accident more often than an old one... The problem is... the sequelae is often pretty bad as well.

The whole world (except us) took this seriously for a reason... Stop pretending, you are only harming yourself and those that you love.

:hmm:

Anyways, check out this data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

It says that the chance of death for people in the 30-39 age group is 0.2%. Since that's the median age of infections, we can assume that the death rate will be similar to this. I'm not a math whizz but it suggests that two weeks or so from now, the death rate in Florida will be under 50 a day. There's a bold prediction if anyone cares :)
#15105063
Julian658 wrote:In parts of Europe (not only Spain) you can buy a church, the city hall and a few homes in the center of small sparsely populated small towns.

Why did you have to mention the skin color of the potential buyers? What is up with that? Spaniards are white.

Buying land was huge before the 2008 housing market crash. And BTW , many Equadorians bought Real Estate in Spain during that era.

There are more than 11 million vacant homes in Europe due to the low fertility rate of Europeans.


You are the one who brought up race. You used the term “ex-pat”, which is a word used to describe white immigrants.

Also, I thought you were against immigration.
#15105066
Wulfschilde wrote::hmm:

Anyways, check out this data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

It says that the chance of death for people in the 30-39 age group is 0.2%. Since that's the median age of infections, we can assume that the death rate will be similar to this. I'm not a math whizz but it suggests that two weeks or so from now, the death rate in Florida will be under 50 a day. There's a bold prediction if anyone cares :)


You clearly didn't read what I said. And that is important because these people are vectors for elders to get infected, these people also take space and resources in the hospital even if they don't die, these people could end up developing pulmonary hypertension or lung fibrosis 4-5 years from now and require lung transplants (and of course, since lung transplant are not something that you can just go to your near seven eleven and buy a nice fresh lung... many could end up dying, just not now but in a few years. Again, minimizing the seriousness of this does not do anyone a favor. Ever heard of polio? It didn't kill everyone... nah!, a few of them simply lived the rest of their lives in an "iron lung" or in a wheelchair or lost control of their a leg... Death is not the only outcome we should care.

And clearly not a math "whizz" either. Yeah, pretty bold prediction given that Florida's last reported deaths in a single day were 67 and cases are increasing, not decreasing. Do you have any evidence to support this or this is just a guess alongside the same sort of guess by Trump "magically disappear". As far as I am concerned, anything that is supposed to happen by "magic" is nonsense.

Also, "infected average" is an average... doesn't mean that everyone infected is of a certain age. Every newborn diagnosed with the coronavirus is going to drop the average by a significant. For instance, the average of 5 people, three of them 65, one 4, and one newborn would be 39, according to your premise all of them should have a 0.2%. chance of death, when in reality 3 of them are in the high-risk category.
#15105072
I read it, I just don't believe that many people who are asymptomatic are going to need lung transplants in 4-5 years. Between this and random comments like "they will die because everyone dies some day" it felt like scaremongering. Instead of arguing about this kind of thing though I'll just try to remember to check back in after a couple more weeks have passed. Cheers.
#15105077
Pants-of-dog wrote:You are the one who brought up race. You used the term “ex-pat”, which is a word used to describe white immigrants.

Also, I thought you were against immigration.

Retiring overseas is not immigration. The retiree must have retirement income, proof of enough savings and MUST BUY health insurance. The retirees get no freebies. They simply get a visa to retire and they are expected to carry their own weight. Many of the Brits come to Spain when they are in their early 60s and about ten years later go back to the UK. Germans do the same.

BTW, your homeland of Canada does not accept old people as immigrants. They want young people that can contribute to society rather than leech from society.

Anyone can be an expat? Nigerians are expats in America and they hang out among themselves. BTW, America is the most generous as they accept octagenarians as immigrants (family ties migration). The old immigrants then go on Medicare even though they never paid a penny into it.
#15105079
Wulfschilde wrote:I read it, I just don't believe that many people who are asymptomatic are going to need lung transplants in 4-5 years. Between this and random comments like "they will die because everyone dies some day" it felt like scaremongering. Instead of arguing about this kind of thing though I'll just try to remember to check back in after a couple more weeks have passed. Cheers.

Thats the problem. First we don't know.
Second, they are not all asymptomatic. Presumably, those that go to the hospital have some sort of symptom, sometimes you just find a case because they learn from a friend that tested positive and you now want to know if you are. But the thing is.... hospital admissions are going up. These are not asymptomatic people. You don't get admitted to the hospital if there is either severe symptoms, or there are objective findings that require some sort of extra vigilance.
Now, best case scenario everyone that recovers will do great and will never get this disease again. The worst-case scenario they all do badly can get reinfected in the future and they suffer long-term complications.
We don't know the answer because this is a new disease. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle.
There are plenty of reports of young people that "recovered" of the disease but end up having shortness of breath for a long time and/or cannot return to their previous baseline.
Ignoring this is not just stupid, it is negligent and borderline criminal.
#15105086
Julian658 wrote:Retiring overseas is not immigration.


Yes, it is.

The retiree must have retirement income, proof of enough savings and MUST BUY health insurance. The retirees get no freebies. They simply get a visa to retire and they are expected to carry their own weight. Many of the Brits come to Spain when they are in their early 60s and about ten years later go back to the UK. Germans do the same.


Yes, all countries require immigrants to contribute more than they take, or have family members who do so.

Thanks for showing how there is no difference between expats and immigrants except that we use the former for white people and the latter for people of colour and we say the former is fine but the latter is bad.

BTW, your homeland of Canada does not accept old people as immigrants. They want young people that can contribute to society rather than leech from society.


Yes, all countries require immigrants to contribute more than they take, or have family members who do so.

Thanks for showing how there is no difference between expats and immigrants except that we use the former for white people and the latter for people of colour and we say the former is fine but the latter is bad.

Anyone can be an expat? Nigerians are expats in America and they hang out among themselves. BTW, America is the most generous as they accept octagenarians as immigrants (family ties migration). The old immigrants then go on Medicare even though they never paid a penny into it.


There is no difference between expats and immigrants except that we use the former for white people and the latter for people of colour and we say the former is fine but the latter is bad.
#15105138
Wulfschilde wrote:It says that the chance of death for people in the 30-39 age group is 0.2%. Since that's the median age of infections, we can assume that the death rate will be similar to this.

No we can't assume that, because we can't assume the age => death rate function is linear. In fact it would be reasonable to respect it not to be given no other prior knowledge

I'm not a math whizz

This statement is correct.
#15105294
Rich wrote:OK we'll remember that, 2000 deaths guaranteed by Saturday the 25th? I'll happily bet £2000 against, at fifty fifty odds on that one.


If it's not the 25th of July, it'l be the 25th of August, or sometimes in the not to distant future. With the current exponential growth in some states, which dwarf the growth in Italy even during its peak, it can't be any other way:

https://www.casualhacker.net/covid19/#r ... ;US-AR;ITA

Even if mainly young people get infected now, the elderly can't hide indefinitely.

And like with the Spanish flu, the 2nd wave will be worse than the 1st one.
#15105324
Hindsite wrote:Our death rate continues to go down. Being immune seems like a good thing to me.
Praise the Lord.

The thing about "herd immunity" is that it requires large numbers of "the herd" to be culled. The people who implement such a strategy usually do not consider themselves to be members of the "the herd", and are therefore rather sanguine about this culling procedure. Until, that is, they come in danger of being culled themselves, in which case they usually panic and run for the hills. *cough*Dominic Cummings*cough* :lol:
#15105325
Potemkin wrote:The only problem with "herd immunity" is that no-one wants to be one of the herd. Lol.

That's just not true. There were large numbers of people, particularly young men and older boys who were willing to risk infection by the Xi virus.

Now I have been designated by @Drlee as the forums archetypal and typical Trump supporter and White Suprematist, so I feel that gives me a certain authority on the forum and that when I speak, I now speak on behalf of all Trump supporters and all White Supremacists. So I think its important to point out that we Trump supporters were actually supporting Sanders in the 2020 primary and openly stated that we would support Sanders against Trump if he had won the primary. We Trump supporters actually support the extension of free health care in Britain to eyesight, hearing and dental care. We Trump supporters wholeheartedly approve that private health insurance in Britain is not tax exempt, and in fact would like to see tax deductions for private education abolished, even though that would be a significant hit for the likes of Dianne Abbot. So we Trump supporters can not be held responsible for the extreme inequalities in the US health care system.
#15105327
Hindsite wrote:It is called herd immunity. :lol:


Even the Swedes now admit that herd immunity never was the aim. But go ahead and go for the most retarded theory on the planet. Nothing less will do for the Trumptards. After they have been through 10 times the outbreak of NYC, there won't be many left of them.

Meanwhile in Europe, Americans have become persona non-grata:

'Treated like criminals': Italy turns away American tourists on private jet

Border police in Sardinia denied entry to five US citizens who attempted to enter the island aboard a private jet, in line with Italy's ban on almost all tourism from outside Europe.
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