African-American Asphyxiated by Police in Minneapolis - Page 159 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15106747
@wat0n

1. Well, we have already seen examples of cities with less police and less gang activity. Toronto and Chicago have similar population sizes, and the greater Toronto area (GTA) is number one for gang homicides. It had 36 gang related homicides in 2018. The TPS has 5400 uniformed and undercover officers.

Chicago has 12,000 officers, and had approximately 250 gang related homicides in 2018.

Looks like you could reduce cops by half and also reduce gang violence sevenfold.

Of course, Chicago would have to invest funds in order to address those social issues that Chicago has that Toronto does not.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ ... -1.5226940

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Police_Service

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago ... Department
#15106752
@Pants-of-dog and we also saw that this is a fallacy, since each city's dynamics could be radically different from each other. What happens when we compare each city to itself?

Devi & Fryer (2020) wrote:This paper provides the first empirical examination of the impact of federal and state "Pattern-or-Practice" investigations on crime and policing. For investigations that were not preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force, investigations, on average, led to a statistically significant reduction in homicides and total crime. In stark contrast, all investigations that were preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force have led to a large and statistically significant increase in homicides and total crime. We estimate that these investigations caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%. Other theories we test such as changes in community trust or the aggressiveness of consent decrees associated with investigations -- all contradict the data in important ways.
#15106758
Pants-of-dog wrote:@wat0n

Yes, the city’s dynamics differ radically. My point was that radical changes are needed.

What are you trying to argue wth that study?


A reduction of police presence (in that study, measured as a fall of interactions between cops and civilians) may actually lead to increases in crime, including gang-related crime. Perhaps the way to deal with this is to simply increase taxes and invest in those communities, without denying them protection from organized crime?
#15106761
@wat0n

Yes, that is one of the possible causal chains that can explain the findings, but the study only speculated about that causal chain and does not provide evidence for it.

On the other hand, Chicago put an additional 1200 officers on the force for the latest Fourth of July weekend and a very high level of homicides and violent crime.

And the number of cops per capita in the USA has dwindled at the same time that violent crime has decreased.

    Data shows that the raw numbers of police have declined over the past five years, and the rate of police officers per 1,000 residents has been dropping for two decades. At the same time, the violent crime rate has also dropped.

    After at least 16 years of growing police agencies, the nation lost more than 23,000 officers from 2013 to 2016, according to a U.S. Justice Department survey, bringing the total down to about 700,000. Two-thirds of 397 law enforcement agencies reported in a December survey that they have seen a decrease in applicants compared to five years ago.

    .....

    Responding to public panic over urban violence during the 1990s, President Bill Clinton signed off on millions of dollars in federal funds to hire thousands of local cops across the country. In 1997, two years after the money started to trickle out of Washington, the nation had 242 police officers for every 100,000 residents. By 2016, that number had dropped to 217 as law enforcement agencies shed jobs in the aftermath of a national recession while the nation’s population grew.

    The national violent crime rate, over those 19 years, dropped by 37 percent. According to FBI data, in 1997 the national violent crime rate was 611.0 per 100,000 inhabitants. In 2016 the violent crime rate was 386.3 out of 100,000 inhabitants.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/inv ... 818056002/

It makes sense that addressing the root causes of violent crime would do more to reduce violet crime than having more cops.
#15106762
Pants-of-dog wrote:@wat0n

Yes, that is one of the possible causal chains that can explain the findings, but the study only speculated about that causal chain and does not provide evidence for it.

On the other hand, Chicago put an additional 1200 officers on the force for the latest Fourth of July weekend and a very high level of homicides and violent crime.

And the number of cops per capita in the USA has dwindled at the same time that violent crime has decreased.

    Data shows that the raw numbers of police have declined over the past five years, and the rate of police officers per 1,000 residents has been dropping for two decades. At the same time, the violent crime rate has also dropped.

    After at least 16 years of growing police agencies, the nation lost more than 23,000 officers from 2013 to 2016, according to a U.S. Justice Department survey, bringing the total down to about 700,000. Two-thirds of 397 law enforcement agencies reported in a December survey that they have seen a decrease in applicants compared to five years ago.

    .....

    Responding to public panic over urban violence during the 1990s, President Bill Clinton signed off on millions of dollars in federal funds to hire thousands of local cops across the country. In 1997, two years after the money started to trickle out of Washington, the nation had 242 police officers for every 100,000 residents. By 2016, that number had dropped to 217 as law enforcement agencies shed jobs in the aftermath of a national recession while the nation’s population grew.

    The national violent crime rate, over those 19 years, dropped by 37 percent. According to FBI data, in 1997 the national violent crime rate was 611.0 per 100,000 inhabitants. In 2016 the violent crime rate was 386.3 out of 100,000 inhabitants.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/inv ... 818056002/

It makes sense that addressing the root causes of violent crime would do more to reduce violet crime than having more cops.


Who told you both are incompatible with each other, and what happened first - the decrease in policing or the decrease in crime rates?
#15106817
wat0n wrote:Who told you both are incompatible with each other, and what happened first - the decrease in policing or the decrease in crime rates?

A decrease in policing has already meant an increase in crime rates. So it seems pretty clear to me that "defunding the police" is more commie propaganda to bring down the USA.
#15106820
As usual, @Hindsite you are completely wrong, and operating from a position of supreme ignorance.


More cops. Is it the answer to fighting crime?
DECLINING NUMBERS OF COPS NATIONWIDE WORRY BIG CITY OFFICIALS, BUT EXPERTS SAY THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT MORE COPS EQUALS LESS CRIME.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/inv ... 818056002/
#15106922
@Saeko It's funny cause only now he's figuring out america was and always will cater to whites. And yet BLM movement wants to continue that trajectory of whites leeching off our labor and money(which is essentially their money lets be frank) in exchange for symbolic gestures and making overt racist institutions(police) covert("reform").
#15106925
At least two white people appear to have been killed so far for saying "all lives matter". I don't understand the logic related to how getting rid of police is supposed to help black people when they are already subsidized at almost every point in their lives and the biggest danger to many of them is each other, a danger that will only be magnified when the police exit the scene. White crypto-communists are just giving things for free to bad people because they think those people might attack others for them some day, it's not just wrong, it isn't going to work. Devilish stuff.
#15106929
@wat0n

I have no idea what things you are referring to when you ask if “both are incompatible”.

Nor do I know which came first. However, it is obvious that less cops does not equal les crime.

Edit: I should have written “it is obvious that more cops does not equal less crime”. Apologies.
Last edited by Pants-of-dog on 12 Jul 2020 18:37, edited 1 time in total.
#15106950
Pants-of-dog wrote:@wat0n

I have no idea what things you are referring to when you ask if “both are incompatible”.

Nor do I know which came first. However, it is obvious that less cops does not equal les crime.


Toronto and Chicago may differ en many more ways than simply their population. Crime itself can take a different character too, regardless of police presence. Unfortunately, these comparisons aren't as simple as they may seem at a glance - which is why it is also useful to compare a city with itself and other cities over time to start teasing these factors out.
#15106955
@wat0n

1. From what I can tell, Chicago and Toronto have populations that are quite similar.

But if we wish to look at one city over time, we can look at just Chicago to see if more cops equals less crime.

Now, over the Fourth of July weekend, Chicago had extra cops and yet also had quite high levels of violent crime.

In fact, Chicago seems to have an odd relationship between violent crime, police budgets, media scandals, and other factors that make it difficult to argue that adding cops helps the situation.
#15106960
Pants-of-dog wrote:@wat0n

1. From what I can tell, Chicago and Toronto have populations that are quite similar.

But if we wish to look at one city over time, we can look at just Chicago to see if more cops equals less crime.

Now, over the Fourth of July weekend, Chicago had extra cops and yet also had quite high levels of violent crime.

In fact, Chicago seems to have an odd relationship between violent crime, police budgets, media scandals, and other factors that make it difficult to argue that adding cops helps the situation.


And yet other evidence (such as the Fryer paper I cited above) shows that less interactions between police and civilians was associated with higher crime. Also, it would be interesting to see what happened with actual police-civilian interactions this weekend, both the total number and where they took place.

There's also that other research, such as the post-AMIA police deployment in Argentina which suggests that police presence acts as a deterrent, but in a very specific geographic area within cities (basically, where cops are posted at). That's important because police may be deployed unevenly within a city, and may actually be deployed in neighborhoods that are already safe to prevent crime from reaching them, which would of course not change overall crime figures by much.

What I don't understand, then, is why would one defund PDs while they still haven't figured out how to best deploy their forces - a process that is expensive in itself, since it may require support by outside experts.
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