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#15107303
Potemkin wrote:But they don't. Not because they're nice guys, but because they're not stupid. Likewise, what Erdogan or Putin are doing isn't stupid either. The difference is that because Turkey and Russia are in relatively weak subaltern positions in the world 'community', they must be rather more aggressive in playing the Great Game than lazy freeloaders like NZ. Lol.


I obviously disagree completely. What Turkey does is stupid. Turkey went from the West's darling to pariah state, or something close to it. All for nothing. It even has a shitty relationship with Russia, Iran and Syria.

Internally it's more divided than ever. Opposition and Kurds are being oppressed, for no reason other than solidifying Erdogan's power.
#15107309
Rugoz wrote:I obviously disagree completely. What Turkey does is stupid. Turkey went from the West's darling to pariah state, or something close to it. All for nothing. It even has a shitty relationship with Russia, Iran and Syria.

A wise man once said: "Let them hate, so long as they fear."

Internally it's more divided than ever. Opposition and Kurds are being oppressed, for no reason other than solidifying Erdogan's power.

Solidifying Erdogan's power is a way of overcoming (or at least bypassing) those internal divisions, and is a necessary first step when playing the Great Game. It's the same reason why Stalin launched his purges in the run-up to the European war which he knew was coming - destroy or at least incapacitate internal opposition before your external enemies take advantage of those internal divisions. I repeat: this is not stupid. Quite the opposite, in fact.
#15107312
Potemkin wrote:A wise man once said: "Let them hate, so long as they fear."


What? Turkey isn't being feared, it's a pathetic annoyance.

Potemkin wrote:Solidifying Erdogan's power is a way of overcoming (or at least bypassing) those internal divisions, and is a necessary first step when playing the Great Game. It's the same reason why Stalin launched his purges in the run-up to the European war which he knew was coming - destroy or at least incapacitate internal opposition before your external enemies take advantage of those internal divisions. I repeat: this is not stupid. Quite the opposite, in fact.


Utter nonsense. It created divisions that had healed to a great extent. In fact Erdogan could have gone down in history as a great statesman. You apparently didn't follow Turkey's history in the past 20 years and now try to convince me with stupid analogies. :roll:
#15107318
Potemkin wrote:A wise man once said: "Let them hate, so long as they fear."


Solidifying Erdogan's power is a way of overcoming (or at least bypassing) those internal divisions, and is a necessary first step when playing the Great Game. It's the same reason why Stalin launched his purges in the run-up to the European war which he knew was coming - destroy or at least incapacitate internal opposition before your external enemies take advantage of those internal divisions. I repeat: this is not stupid. Quite the opposite, in fact.


I concur. Erdogan-whatever I may think of him personally-is a savvy character. And contrary to suggestions he's alienating America, I disagree, I think that he's acting as America's proxy in the region, setting up a new power arrangement in the Middle East that has as it's basis the strongest potential Islamic power.

And yes, taking care of the internal enemies is the wisest course, because if one does not, they will work to sabotage everything you're trying to do in the external arena with external enemies as well.
#15107324
Rugoz wrote:Utter nonsense. It created divisions that had healed to a great extent. In fact Erdogan could have gone down in history as a great statesman. You apparently didn't follow Turkey's history in the past 20 years and now try to convince me with stupid analogies. :roll:


That is exactly right, the Kurdish issue was healing & Turkey was a partner of the west, now these divisions are more pronounced than they have ever been and Turkey is no longer a partner but an enemy.

In Greece we have a saying, "laughs better whoever laughs at the end".
#15107330
annatar1914 wrote:I concur. Erdogan-whatever I may think of him personally-is a savvy character. And contrary to suggestions he's alienating America, I disagree, I think that he's acting as America's proxy in the region, setting up a new power arrangement in the Middle East that has as it's basis the strongest potential Islamic power.

And yes, taking care of the internal enemies is the wisest course, because if one does not, they will work to sabotage everything you're trying to do in the external arena with external enemies as well.


May be if we lived in the past. Political enemies exist because not everything is all right with your rule. Otherwise they wouldn't exist or at least on mass. So purging them is not the way you handle these situations today. There is a thing called democracy when people can take their turn at fixing the country. I heard it also helps with nepotism and corruption.

By the way, Erdogan is so great that he had a coup attempt against him in the 21st century. I don't know how you can even consider a modern politicians "great" if he had a freaking coup attempt against him. A coup attempt by his own people non-the-less with nobody supporting them from the outside. Which is a rarer occurance than you might think.
#15107335
May be if we lived in the past. Political enemies exist because not everything is all right with your rule. Otherwise they wouldn't exist or at least on mass. So purging them is not the way you handle these situations today. There is a thing called democracy when people can take their turn at fixing the country. I heard it also helps with nepotism and corruption.


:roll:

There's this thing called Capitalism, in which the Money Power trumps People Power, and always has. Nor does the formal institutions of a republic protect from corruption and nepotism; these things thrive in the cronyism between the networks of Big Business and Big Government.

By the way, Erdogan is so great that he had a coup attempt against him in the 21st century. I don't know how you can even consider a modern politicians "great" if he had a freaking coup attempt against him. A coup attempt by his own people non-the-less with nobody supporting them from the outside. Which is a rarer occurance than you might think.


Bullshit. The attempted ''Coup'' was a direct outcome of a certain faction of Western Elites ire at Erdogan and their fingerprints were all over it. There was nothing popular about the Coup plotters whatsoever, which ensured their defeat.
#15107339
Rugoz wrote:What? Turkey isn't being feared, it's a pathetic annoyance.

This is precisely what Erdogan aims to change, by playing the Great Game.

Utter nonsense. It created divisions that had healed to a great extent. In fact Erdogan could have gone down in history as a great statesman. You apparently didn't follow Turkey's history in the past 20 years and now try to convince me with stupid analogies. :roll:

You mean they had 'healed' so much that the Army tried to stage a coup d'etat to overthrow and then presumably kill him? If that's 'healed', then I'd hate to see 'bleeding' or even 'festering'. :eh:
#15107364
Potemkin wrote:This is precisely what Erdogan aims to change, by playing the Great Game.


By pissing off all his neighbors, accelerating the brain drain and tanking the economy? :lol:

Potemkin wrote:You mean they had 'healed' so much that the Army tried to stage a coup d'etat to overthrow and then presumably kill him? If that's 'healed', then I'd hate to see 'bleeding' or even 'festering'. :eh:


The army let Erdogan rule until it was too late. Partly because overthrowing every Islamist government in the past didn't achieve lasting stability and progress. If Erdogan didn't abuse his power, he could have led the way to peaceful transitions of power. Once you achieve 2 peaceful transitions, things look pretty rosy.
#15107377
@Potemkin, Erdogan plays the big game in which the likes of Turkey always get fucked. He has needlessly antagonized relations with virtually every country in the region and beyond. He has turned Turkey into an international pariah.

The Turkish economy has been in decline for years. Erdogan may bolster his popularity by feeding jingoistic sentiments with foreign expansionism for a while, but in the end he'll lose support if the economy tanks.

Most foreign direct investment into Turkey is made with a view of customs-free access to the EU's single market. If the EU were to scrap its custom's union with Turkey, that would completely sink the Turkish economy. It probably won't come to that, but even small measures such as a travel warning for Turkey could hit the economy.

Volkswagen has already scraped its plans to build a huge new factory in Turkey.

As EU mulls sanctions, Turkey defiant

The European Union is seeking ways of imposing sanctions on Turkey in the event that its transgressions in the East Mediterranean are scaled up, and in the wake of its decision to convert Hagia Sophia into a mosque.

According to well-informed sources, those sanctions are likely to include the cessation of accession talks with Ankara and of funding, as well as the revocation of its customs union agreement with the bloc.
#15107391
Atlantis wrote:@Potemkin, Erdogan plays the big game in which the likes of Turkey always get fucked. He has needlessly antagonized relations with virtually every country in the region and beyond. He has turned Turkey into an international pariah.

The Turkish economy has been in decline for years. Erdogan may bolster his popularity by feeding jingoistic sentiments with foreign expansionism for a while, but in the end he'll lose support if the economy tanks.

Most foreign direct investment into Turkey is made with a view of customs-free access to the EU's single market. If the EU were to scrap its custom's union with Turkey, that would completely sink the Turkish economy. It probably won't come to that, but even small measures such as a travel warning for Turkey could hit the economy.

Volkswagen has already scraped its plans to build a huge new factory in Turkey.

As EU mulls sanctions, Turkey defiant

I don't deny that Erdogan is playing a risky game. But the Great Game is never without its risks, sometimes even existential risks. As any German well knows, eh @Atlantis? :)
#15107396
Potemkin wrote:I don't deny that Erdogan is playing a risky game. But the Great Game is never without its risks, sometimes even existential risks. As any German well knows, eh @Atlantis? :)


And often countries don't have total control on whether they will play it and how. New Zealand is lucky given its geographic location and alliances.
#15107407
Potemkin wrote:I don't deny that Erdogan is playing a risky game. But the Great Game is never without its risks, sometimes even existential risks. As any German well knows, eh @Atlantis? :)


@Potemkin

Yes, the parallels are interesting, are they not? Except that the United States, this time around, has no particular interest in seeing the new revisionist power taken down a notch at least just yet, and even as I said before, has an interest in seeing It grow and expand. By 2022, I fully expect amazing things from Turkey-not good things since I oppose all this and yet try to maintain an objective view-but amazing.
#15107411
annatar1914 wrote:@Potemkin

Yes, the parallels are interesting, are they not? Except that the United States, this time around, has no particular interest in seeing the new revisionist power taken down a notch at least just yet, and even as I said before, has an interest in seeing It grow and expand. By 2022, I fully expect amazing things from Turkey-not good things since I oppose all this and yet try to maintain an objective view-but amazing.



Turkey is Russia's unwitting puppet.....IMO even if it seems their interests are not aligned in certain geo areas.
#15107416
Potemkin wrote:I don't deny that Erdogan is playing a risky game. But the Great Game is never without its risks, sometimes even existential risks. As any German well knows, eh @Atlantis? :)


Exactly Pot, why some leaders are hell-bent on torching their own country is beyond me, though.

Image

The Anglo Imperialists used to be smarter than that. They always sought out allies to play their imperialist games. Antagonizing all parties leads nowhere.
#15107425
Oxymoron wrote:Turkey is Russia's unwitting puppet.....IMO even if it seems their interests are not aligned in certain geo areas.


No, even though there is an interest in disengaging Turkey from NATO, at the very least geopolitically speaking it's hard to see Russia ''puppeteering'' Turkey into doing anything in Russia's favor. Any help given to Turkey will likely come back to hurt Russia in the longer term.
#15107439
Potemkin wrote:I don't deny that Erdogan is playing a risky game.

Because he has to, he shouldn't play it if Turkey could have joined the EU. Since they were refused, the Turks had to realise they're a Middle Eastern power and have to play accordingly. While Western politics is like a well-organised multi-table tournament with limited risks, Middle Eastern politics is a high stakes cash game for real gamblers and professionals.
#15107478
Beren wrote:Because he has to, he shouldn't play it if Turkey could have joined the EU. Since they were refused, the Turks had to realise they're a Middle Eastern power and have to play accordingly. While Western politics is like a well-organised multi-table tournament with limited risks, Middle Eastern politics is a high stakes cash game for real gamblers and professionals.


We used to be like this but we managed to escape the paradigm by creating the EU and other organisations though. So, i am not sure, why you consider this special or a good thing. We deliberately "Broke the wheel" while Turkey is not able to do it. They can only blame themselves for that.
#15107488
JohnRawls wrote:We used to be like this but we managed to escape the paradigm by creating the EU and other organisations though. So, i am not sure, why you consider this special or a good thing. We deliberately "Broke the wheel" while Turkey is not able to do it. They can only blame themselves for that.


But @Beren is simply saying Turkey wasn't allowed to enter the EU. Not that I don't understand why, mind you, but I don't find it surprising to have Turkey behaving like it is given where it is and the ideological divisions within the country.

Perhaps a more interesting question is if Erdogan is playing this game well. I think he isn't, because his best long term hope would be to rely on NATO. He won't be able to be in such great terms with Russia or Iran given the religious and ideological beliefs of his base.
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