Turkey & Libya agree to split Greek territory, Libya invites Turkey to send military - Page 9 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15107523
Beren wrote:Because he has to, he shouldn't play it if Turkey could have joined the EU. Since they were refused, the Turks had to realise they're a Middle Eastern power and have to play accordingly. While Western politics is like a well-organised multi-table tournament with limited risks, Middle Eastern politics is a high stakes cash game for real gamblers and professionals.


Turkey can have a close relationship with the EU without being a member. Erdogan chose to orient Turkey towards the ME because that suits his own ambitions and his orientation towards Islam. Of course Turkey cannot break with the EU not entirely, for that it is economically far too important.

The ME is a joke. Especially for a NATO member the size of Turkey. What limits Turkish action in the ME are the US and Russia. If it were next to China that would be a different matter. The next geopolitical conflict will be in East Asia.
#15107541
Erdogan turned Turkey into a one-man Islamist dictatorship at war with almost all its neighbours, calling that a "re-orientation to the Middle-East" is naive at best, wilful apologetic propaganda at worst.

Turning the Hagia Sophia into a Mosque does not serve any geopolitical purpose. It only turns Turkey into Wadiya:



wat0n wrote:He won't be able to be in such great terms with Russia or Iran given the religious and ideological beliefs of his base.


Precisely, both Iran and Russia are natural enemies of Turkey and this move only serves to alienate Russia even further. It will be very difficult for Putin to sell a close relationship with Turkey in his own circle where he has invested much in the Orthodox Church for support. Iran may not care about the Hagia Sophia per se, but they are natural religious adversaries both hugely invested in their respective opposing narratives. Turkey has already soured her relations big time with China for the Uighurs. And both the US and the EU have imposed sanctions on her, she has soured her relationship with most of the Middle-East but most especially with all the important nearest neighbors such as, Egypt, Israel & Tunisia. She is either in direct or in cold war with all her immediate neighbours, Georgia, Armenia, Syria, Cyprus and Greece.

So much winning, at least they got a quirky brand new Mosque now so Turks can feel something about themselves while their fragile state institutions are being destroyed in front of their noses.
#15107546
noemon wrote:Precisely, both Iran and Russia are natural enemies of Turkey and this move only serves to alienate Russia even further. It will be very difficult for Putin to sell a close relationship with Turkey in his own circle where he has invested much in the Orthodox Church for support. Iran may not care about the Hagia Sophia per se, but they are natural religious adversaries both hugely invested in their respective opposing narratives. Turkey has already soured her relations big time with China for the Uighurs. And both the US and the EU have imposed sanctions on her, she has soured her relationship with most of the Middle-East but most especially with all the important nearest neighbors such as, Egypt, Israel & Tunisia. She is either in direct or in cold war with all her immediate neighbours, Georgia, Armenia, Syria, Cyprus and Greece.

So much winning, at least they got a brand new Mosque now so Turks can feel something about themselves while their fragile state institutions are being destroyed in front of their noses.


I agree, and don't understand how is that neo-Ottomanists have somehow forgotten the constant Ottoman-Persian and Ottoman-Russian wars of old :?:
#15107555
wat0n wrote:I agree, and don't understand how is that neo-Ottomanists have somehow forgotten the constant Ottoman-Persian and Ottoman-Russian wars of old :?:


They are possibly sleep-walking into oblivion enamoured by the empty nationalism combined with the siege victimisation paranoia(that the world is against them cause they 're jealous or envious), selectively forgetting they actually had friends when they were not behaving as Wadiya. Dangerous cocktail.
#15107622
Beren wrote:Because he has to, he shouldn't play it if Turkey could have joined the EU.


No thanks, we have enough on our plate with Orban, we don't need Erdogan in the EU. It is very naive to believe that Erdogan would have become moderate if Turkey had been admitted into the EU.

I used to be in favor of Turkish membership before understanding what Erdogan is all about. Today, we have to be grateful to those who opposed Turkish EU membership.

The EU accession talk actually strengthened Erdogan because he was encouraged to reduce the role of the military in politics. We should have known that in the ME, the military is the only force capable of keeping the Islamist at bay. As it is, Erdogan has turned Turkey into a hub for Islamist terror in the MENA and beyond.
#15107654
annatar1914 wrote:No, even though there is an interest in disengaging Turkey from NATO, at the very least geopolitically speaking it's hard to see Russia ''puppeteering'' Turkey into doing anything in Russia's favor. Any help given to Turkey will likely come back to hurt Russia in the longer term.


I think the Russians are putting Erdogan into positions where he must act a certain way or get blow back from his base. I believe aside just disengaging them from NATO they are playing them off against the other Middle Eastern interests, including Israel, SA, Syria and even Iran. Obviously the long game is to move the US out of a position of influence in the region.
#15107661
noemon wrote:They are possibly sleep-walking into oblivion enamoured by the empty nationalism combined with the siege victimisation paranoia(that the world is against them cause they 're jealous or envious), selectively forgetting they actually had friends when they were not behaving as Wadiya. Dangerous cocktail.


To be honest this is overly complicated in explanation and just happens to be the result of Erdogan trying to stay in power along with his corrupt circle. As people who know history this outcome is a deja vu that keeps repeating again and again and again. Modern authoritarian/dictatorial rulers learned a lot since 1980s and basically copied Chilean model of sorts. It hasn't changed much. The last innovator in this regard is perhaps Putin but he basically up-scaled the media apparatus to create a positive imagine of his strongman-ism in the rest of the world. ( Everyone remember his daring photo sessions as an example )
#15107669
wat0n wrote:Perhaps a more interesting question is if Erdogan is playing this game well.

Maybe he is and that's why he's hated so much. Like in poker, or any other game, you may be a good player if the others don't like you.

I think he isn't, because his best long term hope would be to rely on NATO.

He still relies on NATO even while teasing, however, as a Neo-Ottoman he considers Israel and Saudi Arabia his main geopolitical rivals in the region, so he's open to Russia and Iran as well.
#15107678
Beren wrote:Maybe he is and that's why he's hated so much. Like in poker, or any other game, you may be a good player if the others don't like you.


He still relies on NATO even while teasing, however, as a Neo-Ottoman he considers Israel and Saudi Arabia his main geopolitical rivals in the region, so he's open to Russia and Iran as well.


The problem though is that by leaving himself disliked, he creates tensions that may lead to a much lessened willingness by NATO to bail him out if he gets into serious trouble with Russia or Iran. It's hard to see how he wins in this context, except for playing internal politics.
#15107680
wat0n wrote:The problem though is that by leaving himself disliked, he creates tensions that may lead to a much lessened willingness by NATO to bail him out if he gets into serious trouble with Russia or Iran. It's hard to see how he wins in this context, except for playing internal politics.

It's hardly a matter of sympathy whether NATO bails out Turkey against Russia and Iran. Erdogan seems trying to do a careful balancing to get the best results, although he can fall and break his neck at the end too.
#15107682
Beren wrote:It's hardly a matter of sympathy whether NATO bails out Turkey against Russia and Iran. Erdogan seems trying to do a careful balancing to get the best results, although he can fall and break his neck at the end too.


Indeed, it's not about sympathy whether he's bailed out by NATO if shit hits the fan, but being a constant irritant is of course a problem as I think you can recognize. More importantly, it's hard to see what's the Turkish national interest in this, this just seems to be a case of internal politics taking over foreign policy - as it happens in the Middle East.
#15107684
wat0n wrote:Indeed, it's not about sympathy whether he's bailed out by NATO if shit hits the fan, but being a constant irritant is of course a problem as I think you can recognize. More importantly, it's hard to see what's the Turkish national interest in this, this just seems to be a case of internal politics taking over foreign policy - as it happens in the Middle East.

Foreign and domestic policies are always tangled up with each other. I'm also sure if Erdogan got into big trouble with Russia and Iran, Western powers would try to remove and replace him while bailing out Turkey.
#15107685
Beren wrote:Foreign and domestic policies are always tangled up with each other. I'm also sure if Erdogan got into big trouble with Russia and Iran, Western powers would try to remove and replace him while bailing out Turkey.


Bingo! That's exactly what would happen. He (and more importantly, his base) is playing a risky game over the long run.
#15107730
Oxymoron wrote:I think the Russians are putting Erdogan into positions where he must act a certain way or get blow back from his base. I believe aside just disengaging them from NATO they are playing them off against the other Middle Eastern interests, including Israel, SA, Syria and even Iran. Obviously the long game is to move the US out of a position of influence in the region.


I don't think anyone is capable of putting Erdogan into a position on anything, I think he marches to the beat of his own drum as the saying goes. If anything, it is Erdogan who has been quite capable of playing off all the different interests in the region and elsewhere against each other, otherwise he wouldn't have the room to move in the manner that he has.

Erdogan is a real threat, to be taken seriously.
#15107962
annatar1914 wrote:I don't think anyone is capable of putting Erdogan into a position on anything, I think he marches to the beat of his own drum as the saying goes. If anything, it is Erdogan who has been quite capable of playing off all the different interests in the region and elsewhere against each other, otherwise he wouldn't have the room to move in the manner that he has.

Erdogan is a real threat, to be taken seriously.



Hmmm I do not know that Turkey Clandestine services are well regarded, and I do know that Russian Clandestine services are Elite.
Something tells me Russia knows how to play these games far better then Turkey. The best control, is one that does not seem like control.
#15107990
Oxymoron wrote:Hmmm I do not know that Turkey Clandestine services are well regarded, and I do know that Russian Clandestine services are Elite.
Something tells me Russia knows how to play these games far better then Turkey. The best control, is one that does not seem like control.


Hard to see, with some aspects of this present day issue. This however is a relationship that has gone on for over 500 years, the one between Turkey and Russia, and I'm certain that (to address your point) both understand the other pretty well by now.

I see other hidden players as having a role in this as well, look up what happened to Ecumenical Patriarch Cyril Lucaris back in the 1600's.
#15108033
annatar1914 wrote:Hard to see, with some aspects of this present day issue. This however is a relationship that has gone on for over 500 years, the one between Turkey and Russia, and I'm certain that (to address your point) both understand the other pretty well by now.

I see other hidden players as having a role in this as well, look up what happened to Ecumenical Patriarch Cyril Lucaris back in the 1600's.


I think the relationship goes back to Byzantium and the Seljuks to be honest, as Russia is in my estimation the relic of that Empire.
Everything from its form of government, to religion, and their relationship to the West. Not sure if that is relevant just saying.
#15108050
Oxymoron wrote:I think the relationship goes back to Byzantium and the Seljuks to be honest, as Russia is in my estimation the relic of that Empire.
Everything from its form of government, to religion, and their relationship to the West. Not sure if that is relevant just saying.


I absolutely agree with that, except that as the ''Third Rome'', Russia breathed new life into the concept which was familiar to the Orthodox Tsars and the Orthodox Emperors alike. Therefore I place Russia firmly (and Turkey also) into Oswald Spengler's ''Magian'' cultural group, not with the West.
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