[Hindsite]

So yesterday Florida set a new record with 15,000 positives.

Florida is another place were some testing sites are only reporting positive test results. No negatives? That doesn't pass the smell test.

[Drlee]

@Hindsite Florida is another place were some testing sites are only reporting positive test results. No negatives? That doesn't pass the smell test.

Uhhhhh. Duh?

Funny thing. I thought that after about 6 years I was finished with listening to people lecture me on epidemiology.

So Hindsite. Since your sense of smell is still extant (that is a very good sign for someone your age) let me give you the sniff you are looking for. This will smell as sweet as a rose to you. How is the republican governor in Florida doing leadership wise:

Today Florida reported 133 deaths from Corona Virus in the last 24 hours.. More than were killed in traffic accidents in the average day in the entire United States.

291,629 people have been diagnosed with the disease since March. (The number is rising extremely fast.)

9194 cases were added today.

4,409 people have died of Corona Virus in Florida and this number is probably significantly under reported.

NOW PAY ATTENTION HINDSITE. THERE WILL BE A TEST. ARE YOU READY? DO YOU HAVE AN ADULT TO EXPLAIN THE BIG NUMBERS TO YOU? DO YOU HAVE A NOTE PAD AND #2 PENCIL?

To date there have been 2,688,366 people tested in Florida. OK. Talk about that with the adult and when you know what that number means I'll go on. Ready? OK.

To date there have been 291,628 cases of Corona virus. Another really big number. Now. What does that mean? It means that for every case of Corona Virus there have been about 9.218 people tested.

That should make you feel a lot better. Good enough to have some prune juice and go to bed?

But here is the thing Hindsite. Do you know what does not pass the smell test? The fact that businesses are still open in Florida and the infection rate is skyrocketing. Since deaths are a lagging indicator by AT LEAST two weeks, as they say, You ain't seen nothing yet.

[Rugoz]

I've said this before: it can be useful to look at other countries and see if their success would work elsewhere, rather than depend on the notion that America is / has / will find the bastards solution.

Look at Taiwan. Pretty bloody close to the source, Wuhan. Probably the most successful at downing corona virus 19.

Every country that successfully brought COVID under control follows the model of Taiwan, SK and co. But to get there you need to bring down the numbers to a level where contact tracing is possible.

Also, people must:
- Quarantine when they had contact.
- Provide ID in restaurants, club, bars etc.
- Install the contact tracing app.
- Wear face masks in certain places.

Most of that only works if it is mandatory. Here in Switzerland the government recommended to wear masks in public transport, but almost nobody did. Then it was made mandatory, and now everybody does, and people generally approve. It's a typical example of the tragedy of the commons. Individually, it makes little sense to wear a mask, collectively it does.

[Wulfschilde]

Hot dogs and big gulps are now officially more dangerous to the average person than the coronavirus is, so I'd say we are doing pretty well. Stock market is great too. But California and other liberals want a year of shutdowns because Orange Man bad. You can't defeat the Orange Man, PantiFA. He is chosen by God.

[Godstud]

No, BigGulps and hotdogs are not more dangerous than Coronavirus.

No, the stock markets are not "great".

Yes, you and Trump are a fucking idiots.

[Wulfschilde]

I made a thread about how heart disease is killing 13x as many people as coronavirus, so it's basically true that hot dogs and big gulps, in combination of course, are more dangerous to most of us than the coronavirus is.

Also the stock market has been hitting new highs in America. If you got in near the bottom you might have more money than you did before. Last I checked my YTD was even but that was before a recent dip. Apple tends to lead the US market lately and it's scared to go above 400, which is normal...

[Godstud]

Why don't you talk about starvation in Africa, since more people die from that? Fuck. Off. It's irrelevant how many people die from other things, that are not contagious diseases. This is merely an idiotic way to try to distract from the topic. Typical conservitard BS,

I deal on the stock market on an almost daily basis. No, it is has not recovered and only a few companies haven't been hurt by the pandemic.

[XogGyux]

Also the stock market has been hitting new highs in America.

Stop and think. Does it make any sense what so ever? That most of the world closed for a while, that the US is still closed in many places and there is a decent chance many more will close. That the airlines/cruises/restaurant companies are not likely to see their prior-COVID numbers for years. Unemployment is astronomical. Tension with China are increasing.
Does that sound like a good recipe for a healthy market?

[Rich]

It is fine for you to play in politics. Politics has an acceptable death number which is high for republicans and much lower for democrats..

Completely untrue. Liberals lead by the WHO, which was long ago bought and owned by the the Nazi China government, deliberately sabotaged the containment of this virus at the start. They didn't want it (largely) confined to Nazi China and Muslim Iran. Its the same way liberals deliberately sabotaged the early containment of the AIDS virus, because they didn't want it to "unfairly" just or mostly effect homosexuals and Africans.

[BeesKnee5]

Completely untrue. Liberals lead by the WHO, which was long ago bought and owned by the the Nazi China government, deliberately sabotaged the containment of this virus at the start. They didn't want it (largely) confined to Nazi China and Muslim Iran. Its the same way liberals deliberately sabotaged the early containment of the AIDS virus, because they didn't want it to "unfairly" just or mostly effect homosexuals and Africans.

I think that's a full house for the rabbit hole brigade

[Wulfschilde]

Stop and think. Does it make any sense what so ever? That most of the world closed for a while, that the US is still closed in many places and there is a decent chance many more will close. That the airlines/cruises/restaurant companies are not likely to see their prior-COVID numbers for years. Unemployment is astronomical. Tension with China are increasing.
Does that sound like a good recipe for a healthy market?

It does. They're going to get into all sorts of tech and other economic contests with China, which will mean massive subsidization of various industries since that's what it will take to compete with them. I told my parents to invest in Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor but they won't listen to me

[Doug64]

I can think of more than one hypothesis for decreasing predicted numbers of deaths that do not involve “wrong” models, whatever you mean by “wrong”.

In this case, “wrong” means producing results that don’t match reality.

If you are arguing that he models were imperfect at the very beginning because we did not know much about the Trump virus at that point, you are correct. But that is just a way of saying that humans do not have good knowledge of things they are encountering for the first time.

The fact that model output changed as our understanding of the Trump virus improved means that the models improved over time, which in turns means our understanding of the Trump virus also improved.

So we agree that when a model is wrong, that is both commonplace and an essential part of the scientific method, and that does not actually discount the findings of scientists.

All true to an extent, but doesn’t consider the political side of the equation—how seriously should we take the models when it comes to forming public policy? Which feeds into another question, how likely are the models to be accurate? The problem isn’t so much the scientists, but the politicians and activists that treat scientists like prophets (and the handful of “scientists” that act like prophets).

Define herd immunity, please. I want to make sure we are discussing the same thing. @Hindsite does not use the term correctly, for example.

For inoculations, herd immunity is the indirect protection provided by those immune to a disease to those not immune, by reducing the odds that the non-immune will be exposed. The article I just posted points out that when we are talking about natural herd immunity rather than through inoculation, behavior has a significant impact on the percentage needed to drop the infection rate below 1.

[XogGyux]

It does. They're going to get into all sorts of tech and other economic contests with China, which will mean massive subsidization of various industries since that's what it will take to compete with them. I told my parents to invest in Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor but they won't listen to me

Seems that your parents are quite a bit wiser than you are. For the vast majority of "investors" betting on individual stocks is not much different than gambling. Those that want to invest, usually bet on the "strength of the US economy as a whole" and buy some sort of index fund, that way you get the diversity that protects you. After all, the vast majority of "stock pickers" including the rich and well educated one, fail to outperform the average market.
Furthermore, just mentioning Intel raises some red flags given their rocky situation right now with apple moving away towards ARM and AMD kicking their butt in CPU performance.

[Rancid]

Seems that your parents are quite a bit wiser than you are. For the vast majority of "investors" betting on individual stocks is not much different than gambling. Those that want to invest, usually bet on the "strength of the US economy as a whole" and buy some sort of index fund, that way you get the diversity that protects you. After all, the vast majority of "stock pickers" including the rich and well educated one, fail to outperform the average market.
Furthermore, just mentioning Intel raises some red flags given their rocky situation right now with apple moving away towards ARM and AMD kicking their butt in CPU performance.

I agree with your post.

one side point I'll add is that Intel is important to US national security. They are one of the few fabs left in America. Thus, Intel is too important to fail, and will eventually be propped up by the government. Similar to Micron Technologies. Micron is basically supported by the federal government because they are the only memory manufacturer left in the US.

[Pants-of-dog]

@Doug64

1. Please provide evidence for the claim that the models were wrong.

2, Do you have an argument about models and politicians using science to make policy?

3. Is there a plan for reaching the level of immune people in a population to attain herd immunity?

[Finfinder]

Uhhhhh. Duh?

Funny thing. I thought that after about 6 years I was finished with listening to people lecture me on epidemiology.

So Hindsite. Since your sense of smell is still extant (that is a very good sign for someone your age) let me give you the sniff you are looking for. This will smell as sweet as a rose to you. How is the republican governor in Florida doing leadership wise:

Today Florida reported 133 deaths from Corona Virus in the last 24 hours.. More than were killed in traffic accidents in the average day in the entire United States.

291,629 people have been diagnosed with the disease since March. (The number is rising extremely fast.)

9194 cases were added today.

4,409 people have died of Corona Virus in Florida and this number is probably significantly under reported.

NOW PAY ATTENTION HINDSITE. THERE WILL BE A TEST. ARE YOU READY? DO YOU HAVE AN ADULT TO EXPLAIN THE BIG NUMBERS TO YOU? DO YOU HAVE A NOTE PAD AND #2 PENCIL?

To date there have been 2,688,366 people tested in Florida. OK. Talk about that with the adult and when you know what that number means I'll go on. Ready? OK.

To date there have been 291,628 cases of Corona virus. Another really big number. Now. What does that mean? It means that for every case of Corona Virus there have been about 9.218 people tested.

That should make you feel a lot better. Good enough to have some prune juice and go to bed?

But here is the thing Hindsite. Do you know what does not pass the smell test? The fact that businesses are still open in Florida and the infection rate is skyrocketing. Since deaths are a lagging indicator by AT LEAST two weeks, as they say, You ain't seen nothing yet.

. Yea we all were sitting quarantined in our houses for 3 months with the virus and the second they open up the hair salons this virus it out of control. I guess its past the radar of the supposed intelligent elite that Northerners brought that shit here.


Local News Investigation Finds Florida Hospitals Exaggerated COVID Numbers
By Eric Lendrum • July 15, 2020
After an investigation by local media outlet Fox 35 in Orlando, Florida, it has been revealed that the supposed positivity rates in Coronavirus testings have been grossly exaggerated in many hospitals.

The investigation was conducted after several facilities reported unusually high numbers of positive results, including a 100 percent positivity rate at an Orlando Centra Care (where all 83 people tested came back positive), and an 88 percent positivity rate at NCF Diagnostics.

Upon getting in contact with several other facilities, Fox 35 found that the Florida Department of Health had either deliberately exaggerated or unintentionally misinterpreted several of the numbers. Although Orlando Health had been reported to have a positivity rate of 98 percent, representatives of the facility confirmed to the news outlet that their positivity rate was actually a mere 9.4 percent.

Similarly, the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center, which had been reported with a positivity rate of 76 percent, confirmed to the news outlet that theirs was a positivity rate of only 6 percent.

When the Florida Department of Health was confronted with these figures, a spokesperson claimed that such smaller medical facilities had failed to report their negative test numbers and had only included the positives in their reports, which would contribute to the misreporting of 100 percent positivity rates.

In recent weeks, the mainstream media has attempted to paint Florida as the new epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, citing such numbers as the alleged increase in positive cases. However, in addition to this new research debunking those numbers, the state of Florida has still managed to keep its death toll significantly low, especially compared to other states that have been ravaged by the disease such as New York.

https://amgreatness.com/2020/07/15/loca ... d-numbers/

[Wulfschilde]

I agree with your post.

one side point I'll add is that Intel is important to US national security. They are one of the few fabs left in America. Thus, Intel is too important to fail, and will eventually be propped up by the government. Similar to Micron Technologies. Micron is basically supported by the federal government because they are the only memory manufacturer left in the US.

How did you manage to agree with me that they'll get subsidized but also agree with him when he's saying that I'd be making a bad call to invest in Intel?

Also, my rate of return is better than my parent's. They're just stubborn. It runs in the family

[BeesKnee5]

../

I suggest you follow the fact trail.

The original investigation found that negative tests were not being included, not that all the tests carried out are positive.

In other words a lab carried out 1000 tests and reported 90 positive.

What your links have done is misrepresented this to claim only 90 tests were carried out.

[Finfinder]

I suggest you follow the fact trail.

The original investigation found that negative tests were not being included, not that all the tests carried out are positive.

In other words a lab carried out 1000 tests and reported 90 positive.

What your links have done is misrepresented this to claim only 90 tests were carried out.

I don't see how you have proven any of that furthermore I don't see how you have proven the scope of the article is wrong.

Are you assuming that reporting of coivid cases are 100% accurate and not incentivized ?

[BeesKnee5]

I don't see how you have proven any of that furthermore I don't see how you have proven the scope of the article is wrong.

Are you assuming that reporters of coivid are not incentivized ?

I'm making no assumptions.

The evidence is that labs only reported positive tests. Not that they reported every test they carried out as positive.


From the FOX 35 Orlando article.

"FOX 35 News went on to speak with the Florida Department of Health on Tuesday. They confirmed that although private and public laboratories are required to report positive and negative results to the state immediately, some have not. Specifically, they said that some smaller, private labs were not reporting negative test result data to the state. "

Your link has misrepresented this as though the number of positive tests is much lower.