Initial tests at Berlin hospital indicate that Navalny was poisoned - Page 3 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15118084
skinster wrote:End of Maduro! End of Lukashenko! End of Morales! He's a neolib because he's too lazy to understand the world outside the immediate propaganda we're all forced with...and these people love war.


As a matter of fact you contantly force pro-dictatorship propaganda and lies on us.

If there is a war I must say at least some of the so-called victims asked for it.
#15118111
ingliz wrote:For a military grade nerve agent it's a bit shit - Five people receive a massive dose*, 4 live.


Potency depends on shelf life. It hadn't been produced in nearly 30 years. And according to Russia they destroyed their stockpile anyways. Whether that is true or not, the likelyhood is they still would have ceased production simply because news of such a secret facility existing would have been spied out by now. So if the poisoning was government sanctioned, the objective wouldn't have been to kill but to scare. And that doesn't explain why they allowed Navalny to be sent to a German hospital either. An own goal for a country led by secrets.

Also it is naive to believe that Novichok isn't in the hands of the mafia or that Russia is so incompetent that it this is their only means of killing their opponents. Navalny had many enemies and at the time wasn't a thorn in Putin's ass. If Novochok was used then the objective was to make it seem accidental on an internal flight and the mere fact he survived and given access to medical help meant this wasn't government led.
#15118119
B0ycey wrote:Potency depends on shelf life. It hadn't been produced in nearly 30 years. And according to Russia they destroyed their stockpile anyways. Whether that is true or not, the likelyhood is they still would have ceased production simply because news of such a secret facility existing would have been spied out by now. So if the poisoning was government sanctioned, the objective wouldn't have been to kill but to scare. And that doesn't explain why they allowed Navalny to be sent to a German hospital either. An own goal for a country led by secrets.

Also it is naive to believe that Novichok isn't in the hands of the mafia or that Russia is so incompetent that it this is their only means of killing their opponents. Navalny had many enemies and at the time wasn't a thorn in Putin's ass. If Novochok was used then the objective was to make it seem accidental on an internal flight and the mere fact he survived and given access to medical help meant this wasn't government led.


Plausible deniability has been the Kremlin's trick for 20 years now. Given Navalny's family was pushing hard for him to get out of Russia and a German plane was already waiting on the runway, they had no choice but to let him go if the "it wasn't us" story was supposed to work. Of course the fact that the Russian doctors supposedly didn't realize Navalny was poisoned makes the whole thing rather transparent, but I guess lots of people will believe the Germans faked the results and some of the rest will believe it wasn't the Kremlin but someone else, a foreign power or domestic enemies.
#15118120
Rugoz wrote:Plausible deniability has been the Kremlin's trick for 20 years now. Given Navalny's family was pushing hard for him to get out of Russia and a German plane was already waiting on the runway, they had no choice but to let him go if the "it wasn't us" story was supposed to work. Of course the fact that the Russian doctors supposedly didn't realize Navalny was poisoned makes the whole thing rather transparent, but I guess lots of people will believe the Germans faked the results and some of the rest will believe it wasn't the Kremlin but someone else, a foreign power or domestic enemies.


Putin must be delighted that his critics seem to believe he is so awe inspiring and mighty.

The reality is if Putin was so adamant of Navalnys death and at the same time wanted to cover it up, then I suspect FSB agents would have found a way to keep Navalny in Russia. One idea that came into my head just now was to say he had Covid and as such couldn't fly under Russian quarantine rules and then said he died from that. Putin could have found a number of ways to kill Navalny and being he was in Russia, could have covered it up so easily. If he is so powerful to kill with impunity he can also control his body - dead or alive. Which is why this seems more of staging to me. Novichok with Salisbury has proven that it isn't potent enough to kill with certainty and if that was the Russian poison of choice it shows incompetency. But if it was Oligarch mafia related then a warning shot has been achieved and their objective was reached. But even that is heresay.

Nonetheless to believe that Putin is his only enemy or that he is the only person who had the opportunity to poison Navalny is high praise to Putin but ignorance of Russian corruption and power formations there.
#15118131
B0ycey wrote:The reality is if Putin was so adamant of Navalnys death and at the same time wanted to cover it up, then I suspect FSB agents would have found a way to keep Navalny in Russia.

Why would they have wanted to keep him in Russia? It's better for them if he's outside Russia, sick or healthy, dead or alive, anyway. Navalny is a foreign issue now, they'd not even want him to be buried in Russia, I guess, because it would be a domestic event and domestic news then. He's mostly finished as an activist even if he survives and supposed to spend the rest of his life in retirement in Germany.

B0ycey wrote:Nonetheless to believe that Putin is his only enemy or that he is the only person who had the opportunity to poison Navalny is high praise to Putin but ignorance of Russian corruption and power formations there.

Navalny is a victim of the Russian oligarchy anyway, the head of which is Putin himself. It should be obvious to anyone that eliminating Navalny was in Putin's interest in this current situation which can potentially destabilise Russia as well.
#15118132
ingliz wrote:For a military grade nerve agent it's a bit shit - Five people receive a massive dose*, 4 live.

* In Salisbury, according to the Independent, a British newspaper, it was "enough to kill several hundreds of thousands of people."

Note we are not counting all the police, ambulance men, forensic specialists, members of the public and soldiers in Salisbury without hazmat suits, the passengers on the plane in Siberia, etc, who it's hard to argue didn't receive a dose and are still living.


Just in UK there was around 17-20 accidents that were potential or looked like Novichok according to UKs special services in the last 15 years. They did a review after the Skripals attempt. But nobody tested for it before. And that is just for the UK. Basically if it is used and after 3-4 days and maximum a week, it is already not possible to detect. God knows how many all across the world.
#15118134
Beren wrote:Why would they have wanted to keep him in Russia? It's better for them if he's outside Russia, sick or healthy, dead or alive, anyway. Navalny is a foreign issue now, they'd not even want him to be buried in Russia, I guess, because it would be a domestic event and domestic news then. He's mostly finished as an activist even if he survives and supposed to spend the rest of his life in retirement in Germany, I suppose.


Diplomacy Beren. Surely Russia wants to appear established whether it is in essence a dictatorship or not. Not exactly a winner to the far left who salivate over RT tweets when trying to manipulate their view to the world as Russia have now been proven to have Novichok amongst their borders along with seemingly to be inactive at defending their opposition from attack. That is a headache for Russia that they wouldn't have had if he was buried in unmarked grave in Siberia.

Navalny is a victim of the Russian oligarchy anyway, the head of which is Putin himself. It should be obvious to anyone that eliminating Navalny was in Putin's interest in this current situation which can potentially destabilise Russia as well.


If this was Putin, then it is a test. And not really a sensible one. As soon as Navalny went to Berlin he was always going to come back poisoned. And now Germany have to make an important decision. Because the obvious punishment is to close down the Nord Stream 2 gas project. Something that will basically hurt EU-Russian relations at a time when both could do with each other. And I cannot see how Germany cannot not do this and Putin would know that. So would Putin have seriously risked doing that after pumping so much money into the gas project when he had the means to cover up everything and save face by denying everything as conspiracy theories? I doubt it. And I doubt it because Putin isn't the only person in Russia to have control of Novichok.
#15118137
Beren wrote:Nord Stream 2 is way above this even if Navalny's been Merkel's man all along, and Putin knows that, of course.


Then what you are suggesting he is a gambling man and will risk everything when he didn't need to risk anything.

Besides Germany have questioned Russia for answers and there is pressure to do something if no answers are forthcoming and that is from Merkels own parliament. Which means that Nord Stream 2 isn't above this.
#15118138
B0ycey wrote:Then what you are suggesting he is a gambling man and will risk everything when he didn't need to risk anything.

Besides Germany have questioned Russia for answers and there is pressure to do something if no answers are forthcoming and that is from Merkels own parliament. Which means that Nord Stream 2 isn't above this.

It's just political opportunism as usual, which Merkel will handle easily. NS 2 is basically above everything between Germany and Russia. Putin's tolerance for Navalny has ended with the Belarusian crisis, simple as that.
#15118142
Beren wrote:It's just political opportunism as usual, which Merkel will handle easily. NS 2 is basically above everything between Germany and Russia. Putin's tolerance for Navalny has ended with the Belarusian crisis, simple as that.


Merkel won't handle that easily at all but sure she will no doubt handle it in BS fashion like Cummings did when he decided to test his eyesight during lockdown. Because it won't just be coming from the opposition FYI but her allies as well. Although I suspect you're right that ultimately Germany won't touch Nord 2 because it will cost them dearly too. So really it depends on how much Merkel wants to seem strong against Russia to how strong or weak sanctions will be. And something Putin would have gambled on her wilting if it was him in any case. And something he didn't need to put on Merkel either I might add too. As let's face it, it would have been far more simple to kill Navalny in Siberia if he had enough of him.
#15118145
B0ycey wrote:Merkel won't handle that easily at all but sure she will no doubt handle it in BS fashion like Cummings did when he decided to test his eyesight during lockdown. Because it won't just be coming from the opposition FYI but her allies as well. Although I suspect you're right that ultimately Germany won't touch Nord 2 because it will cost them dearly too. So really it depends on how much Merkel wants to seem strong against Russia to how strong or weak sanctions will be. And something Putin would have gambled on her wilting if it was him in any case. And something he didn't need to put on Merkel either I might add too. As let's face it, it would have been far more simple to kill Navalny in Siberia if he had enough of him.

Merkel will handle this by routine and she should also appreciate she has Navalny still alive and probably surviving in a German hospital.
#15118282
NS2 is not only a Russian-German deal. Germany and several EU countries are threatened by the US with sanctions worth several billions of dollars. The US lobbied against NS2 in Eastern Europe the last 2 years in order to keep even EU members apart.

The Navalny incident, as unimportant as it seems, is a trigger to make a choice. Its obviously not the reason to question a 10 billion infrastructure project which is crucial for the EU energy needs AND the Russo-European relations.
#15118291
Beren wrote:Nord Stream 2 is way above this ...


Merkel does not exclude a stop to NS2 if the Russian side does not cooperate in investigating Navalny's poisoning.

Kanzlerin Angela Merkel schließt nun den Stopp der Pipeline Nord Stream 2, die Gas von Russland nach Deutschland und Europa bringen soll und an der auch die OMV beteiligt ist, nicht mehr aus.


Angela Merkel schließt Stopp von Nord Stream 2 nicht mehr aus
#15118295
Atlantis wrote:Merkel does not exclude a stop to NS2 if the Russian side does not cooperate in investigating Navalny's poisoning.

She does not exclude...wow! So what now? The Americans poisoned Navalny in the midst of the Belarus crisis to screw the project? The Russians will happily cooperate then, I guess, I don't even understand how they need to be threatened like that. :lol:
#15118337
Rancid wrote:Pro-Russian Germans are a bunch of useful idiot jackasses.

That said, let the gas flow.

$$$

Don't worry, gas and money keep flowing anyway, Navalny was poisoned carefully enough to let him recover to some degree, so there won't be much reason for messing with the Russians that much. He's also Russian and a Russian citizen, not German, so it's an issue among Russians actually, although Merkel seems much interested in him. Not excluding a stop to NS2 is just part of the routine, the Russians won't really investigate shit anyway and will stick to their bullshit like their Twitter heroes do, no matter what, which the Germans will swallow as the Russians will swallow their meddling in Belarus.

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