Election 2020 - Page 217 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By Beren
#15122344
Oxymoron wrote:Rational expectations? Based on the betting habits of addicts?
How accurate have the bookies been on Presidential elections?

I guess odds are rationally calculated by professionals. I don't know how accurate they've been on presidential elections specifically, but they must be pretty accurate in general if they want to make a living. However, the problem is that Trump beat the odds in 2016 and that's exactly what he should do again to win this time as well. Which is not impossible to happen, of course, but I'd not consider it likely.
User avatar
By Oxymoron
#15122345
Beren wrote:I guess odds are rationally calculated by professionals. I don't know how accurate they've been on presidential elections specifically, but they must be pretty accurate in general if they want to make a living. However, the problem is that Trump beat the odds in 2016 and that's exactly what he should do again to win this time as well. Which is not impossible to happen, of course, but I'd not consider it likely.


Again if they are rationally calculated by "professionals" when were they right about the American Presidential election?


Bookies do a good job on sports (where they either have insider info, or are knowledgeable about the sport), when it comes to these odd bet's
I suspect they base it on mass numbers to show general mood of the people in the aggregate. Mostly its used to bring in people to bet, and these people bet on other more profitable things. Like the Costco $1.5 hotdog.
User avatar
By Beren
#15122347
Oxymoron wrote:Again if they are rationally calculated by "professionals" when were they right about the American Presidential election?

Again, who the fuck knows? However, Trump seems to have a 46.3% average chance of winning, which must be an implied probability and isn't that bad at all, so you could even bet on it perhaps.
User avatar
By Oxymoron
#15122348
Beren wrote:Again, who the fuck knows? However, Trump seems to have a 46.3% average chance of winning, which must be an implied probability and isn't that bad at all, so you could even bet on it perhaps.


Yes so we will take it with a grain of salt.... the facts are that

Biden shot his load so to speak, the debates will only hinder him. I do not see his numbers rising, but Trump only has up to go.
User avatar
By Beren
#15122355
Oxymoron wrote:Yes so we will take it with a grain of salt.... the facts are that

Biden shot his load so to speak, the debates will only hinder him. I do not see his numbers rising, but Trump only has up to go.

You can take it as you wish, that's how you take it anyway (regardless of the facts). You can also pray for Trump, if you wish, it could help him more than wishing him anything on PoFo. :lol:
User avatar
By Oxymoron
#15122362
Beren wrote:You can take it as you wish, that's how you take it anyway (regardless of the facts). You can also pray for Trump, if you wish, it could help him more than wishing anything for him on PoFo. :lol:


I didn't wish anything, I am simply stating the fact that he is in a better position to win then Biden.
By wat0n
#15122364
I think this is close to 50-50. I also think chances improved for Biden because of the passing of RBG - a SCOTUS fight could help Democrats end or at least postpone their impending internal fights between moderates and progressives.
User avatar
By Beren
#15122367
Oxymoron wrote:I didn't wish anything, I am simply stating the fact that he is in a better position to win then Biden.

Which is either an opinion or an implicit wish rather than a fact. According to Trumpers it's also a fact that Trump must win in November and have already declared him a winner simply because nothing suggests that like nothing suggested it in 2016. :lol: Which is a fallacy, of course.
User avatar
By Oxymoron
#15122369
Beren wrote:Which is either an opinion or an implicit wish rather than a fact. According to Trumpers it's also a fact that Trump must win in November and have already declared him a winner simply because nothing suggests that like nothing suggested it in 2016. :lol: Which is a logical fallacy, of course.


Facts are he is a sitting President, his opponent has not energized his base, and Joe by all accounts will either pull out or perform horribly in debates.
Fact is that a sitting president has an overwhelming advantage, and it takes a lot to get them out of office. your hate of Trump or me is clouding your argument.
User avatar
By Beren
#15122370
Oxymoron wrote:Facts are he is a sitting President, his opponent has not energized his base, and Joe by all accounts will either pull out or perform horribly in debates.
Fact is that a sitting president has an overwhelming advantage, and it takes a lot to get them out of office. your hate of Trump or me is clouding your argument.

Okay, I leave it at that here before I regret having a word with you as usual.
By Doug64
#15122495
And here's this week's Rasmussen White House Watch (I toss in the subcategories for fun, but don't take them too seriously--smaller samples means wider margin of error and more swingy):

    If the presidential race in 2020 was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?

    • Donald Trump 47%
    • Joe Biden 48% (+2)
    • Some other candidate 3%
    • Not sure 2% (-2)

    Male (48%)
    • Donald Trump 48% (-5)
    • Joe Biden 47% (+6)
    • Some other candidate 2% (-1)
    • Not sure 2% (-1)

    Female (52%)
    • Donald Trump 46% (+5)
    • Joe Biden 49% (-1)
    • Some other candidate 3%
    • Not sure 3% (-3)

    Age 18-39 (36%)
    • Donald Trump 50% (+3)
    • Joe Biden 46% (+3)
    • Some other candidate 4% (-1)
    • Not sure 1% (-4)

    Age 40-64 (48%)
    • Donald Trump 46%
    • Joe Biden 48% (+1)
    • Some other candidate 2% (-1)
    • Not sure 3% (-1)

    Age 65+ (17%)
    • Donald Trump 44% (-3)
    • Joe Biden 52% (+3)
    • Some other candidate 1%
    • Not sure 3%

    Whites (70%)
    • Donald Trump 50%
    • Joe Biden 46% (+1)
    • Some other candidate 2%
    • Not sure 2% (-1)

    Blacks (12%)
    • Donald Trump 32% (+10)
    • Joe Biden 64% (-2)
    • Some other candidate 2% (-1)
    • Not sure 3% (-6)

    Others (18%)
    • Donald Trump 47% (-3)
    • Joe Biden 47% (+10)
    • Some other candidate 4% (-3)
    • Not sure 3% (-2)

    Republicans (33%)
    • Donald Trump 83% (+3)
    • Joe Biden 14% (-2)
    • Some other candidate 1%
    • Not sure 1% (-2)

    Independents (30%)
    • Donald Trump 48% (+1)
    • Joe Biden 42% (+4)
    • Some other candidate 5% (-3)
    • Not sure 5% (-2)

    Democrats (37%)
    • Donald Trump 14% (-2)
    • Joe Biden 83% (+3)
    • Some other candidate 2% (+1)
    • Not sure 1% (-2)

    Attended High School
    • Donald Trump 52% (+2)
    • Joe Biden 44% (+6)
    • Some other candidate 5% (-5)
    • Not sure 0% (-1)

    High School Graduate
    • Donald Trump 57% (+5)
    • Joe Biden 36% (-4)
    • Some other candidate 3%
    • Not sure 4% (-1)

    Attended College
    • Donald Trump 49% (-1)
    • Joe Biden 47% (+6)
    • Some other candidate 2% (-1)
    • Not sure 2% (-4)

    College Graduate
    • Donald Trump 47%
    • Joe Biden 48% (+2)
    • Some other candidate 3%
    • Not sure 2% (-2)

    Graduate School
    • Donald Trump 36% (-1)
    • Joe Biden 60% (+3)
    • Some other candidate 2%
    • Not sure 2% (-1)
By Doug64
#15122499
And more news you aren't likely to see reported by the MSM(D), here's two more Democratic voters "peacefully protesting":

77-year-old veteran wearing 'MAGA' hat beaten in California: 'We just don't like people like you'

    A 77-year-old military veteran in California is recovering from his wounds after he said he was beaten by two people because of his “Make America Great Again” hat.

    Red Bluff police have charged Daniel Gomez-Martinez, 26, with battery and elder abuse after a man said he was attacked for his political views outside the post office in Red Bluff on Friday.

    The man, who asked not to be identified during an interview with KRCR-TV, said he was wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat in support of President Trump and a Thin Blue Line mask in support of law enforcement when he was attacked by a man and a woman.

    “She looked at me and she goes, ‘We just don’t like people like you,’” the victim recalled. “I just kind of got shocked a little bit and I said, ‘Well, that breaks my heart,’ and no more sooner out of my mouth, I get hit on the left side of my head.

    “Then somehow he got me in a headlock and started pounding me on top of my head,” he continued. “I got blood all over the place and I’m trying to figure, you know, where’s my hat, where’s my package?”

    The victim said he was taken by ambulance to St. Elizabeth Hospital and treated for cuts and scrapes to the top of his head. He said he was still experiencing headaches three days after the altercation.

    “I just feel kind of bad,” he said. “Seven years in the military, Vietnam veteran and 30 plus years in law enforcement and you’re always taught situational awareness. And this guy came out of — I never even saw it coming.

    “I was so shocked for the hate that people have, you know?” he added. “I don’t hate them. I never met them. I just can’t believe they would do something like that.”
By Doug64
#15122680
And even more news you probably won’t see covered much by the MSM(D):

FBI finds mail-in ballots discarded in Pennsylvania. All of them were cast for President Trump.

    On Monday, September 21, 2020, at the request of Luzerne County District Attorney Stefanie Salavantis, the Office of the United States Attorney along with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Scranton Resident Office, began an inquiry into reports of potential issues with a small number of mail-in ballots at the Luzerne County Board of Elections.

    Since Monday, FBI personnel working together with the Pennsylvania State Police have conducted numerous interviews and recovered and reviewed certain physical evidence. Election officials in Luzerne County have been cooperative. At this point we can confirm that a small number of military ballots were discarded. Investigators have recovered nine ballots at this time. Some of those ballots can be attributed to specific voters and some cannot. All nine ballots were cast for presidential candidate Donald Trump.

    Our inquiry remains ongoing and we expect later today to share our up to date findings with officials in Luzerne County. It is the vital duty of government to ensure that every properly cast vote is counted.

So that’s nine that they found, how many do you think there are that weren’t found?
User avatar
By Drlee
#15122774
Fake News.
User avatar
By Wulfschilde
#15122781
Senate report reveals evidence that Hunter Biden was wired $3.5 million by a Russian oligarch. Can you imagine if this was one of Trump's kids?

Also, lawyers involved in the FBI's Russia investigation all purchased personal liability insurance and had this to say about it:
Image

Also this:
Image

If you think the second one isn't that bad, look at the dates on these.

Your next post will be "Fake News."
By Doug64
#15122783
And in another likely case of "mostly peaceful protestors" you won't hear much about from the MSM(D):

Trump-supporting family's garage torched, tagged with 'Biden 2020' graffiti in Minnesota

    Federal and local authorities are investigating a suspected arson after a Minnesota family that had a “Trump 2020” flag on one of their vehicles saw their garage torched and tagged with “Biden 2020” graffiti.

    Police said officers and firefighters responded to the blaze before dawn Wednesday in Brooklyn Center, where a detached garage was burned to the ground and several vehicles including an RV were destroyed.

    Minor damage was done to the house, where Deana and Dennis Molla said they were sleeping along with their 2-year-old son and 5-month old daughter when the fire erupted, the Star Tribune reported.

    Police said in a news release that “Biden 2020,” “BLM” and an anarchy symbol had been written with fresh spray paint on the garage door.

    Mrs. Molla told a local NBC News affiliate that her husband had purchased a “Trump 2020” flag 10 days earlier and had it mounted on the side of their RV parked in the driveway. She said someone stole the flag Monday morning, but they replaced it with a new one later that day.

    Police said the Trump flag was also destroyed.

    The Mollas told the NBC affiliate that the fire started with the RV and spread to two other pickup trucks parked in the driveway. It then spread to the detached garage, where four puppies were sleeping, they said. Mr. Molla said he ran into the garage and was able to save the puppies.

    “I couldn’t see anything,” Mr. Molla said. “I had to just feel for where the puppies were. I got two out and went back in and got the other two.”

    Police said officers and firefighters helped save all the family’s animals, which also included three adult dogs in kennels. They’re asking anyone with information on the incident to call the Arson Hot-Line at 1-800-723-2020.

    The Minnesota Arson Reward Project is also offering rewards of up to $5,000 for information leading to an arrest.

    “This fire is considered suspicious, and our investigation remains extremely active,” police said in a statement.

    Meanwhile, the Mollas say they are still in disbelief.

    “I think things have gotten way out of control,” Mr. Molla, whose family fled Soviet Russia when he was 4 years old, told the Star Tribune. “I’m not one of those confrontational people. … I just feel very sorry for my parents, just because they wanted to leave the USSR for us to have a better future and life in America. … For them to see me express my beliefs as a Republican, it’s crazy to think it came down to this.”

    “They saw that we have a jungle gym and toys in the backyard,” Mrs. Molla said. “To put our babies in harm’s way because you don’t agree with our politics — just don’t put our kids in danger. My son smells like smoke.”
User avatar
By Drlee
#15122918
You are correct. But Fake News X2. Doug64, a Trump supporter just like you, just posted a Washington Times article.

Why do you two waste our time? Trump can run his won commercials.
User avatar
By annatar1914
#15122923
Drlee wrote: Trump can run his won commercials.


Freudian slip there? His ''won'' commercials? :D

It's okay, we all know it. Life goes on.

And i'm not trolling, I think that we live in momentous times, and recognizing that Trump is going to win a second term could be a step back from denial and collective psychosis for the Liberals. If not, they'll all pretty much become Muslims.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15122934
Yes. Slipped.

I think Trump is going to win a second term. And in doing so will convert the justice department into his personal enforcement arm. With the court in his pocket it will mean the virtual end of democracy in the US with no mechanism to get it back. He has a large army in 2nd amendment supporters he can call a militia and the coup will be complete.

I am not a liberal as you are trying to use the term. I am an originalist when it comes to the constitution. So, we are told to believe, is his likely replacement to Ginsburg. I do not believe that. An originalist, for example, would not allow Trump to declare fake emergencies and take appropriations away from the house.

If the right to appropriate money only becomes how much and not for what the house may as well disband. It will serve no purpose.

No Annitar. I can understand why you would like the US to fall and you have made it abundantly clear that you do, but for those of us living here a second Trump term will be very bad indeed.
User avatar
By Tainari88
#15122940
Drlee wrote:Yes. Slipped.

I think Trump is going to win a second term. And in doing so will convert the justice department into his personal enforcement arm. With the court in his pocket it will mean the virtual end of democracy in the US with no mechanism to get it back. He has a large army in 2nd amendment supporters he can call a militia and the coup will be complete.

I am not a liberal as you are trying to use the term. I am an originalist when it comes to the constitution. So, we are told to believe, is his likely replacement to Ginsburg. I do not believe that. An originalist, for example, would not allow Trump to declare fake emergencies and take appropriations away from the house.

If the right to appropriate money only becomes how much and not for what the house may as well disband. It will serve no purpose.

No Annitar. I can understand why you would like the US to fall and you have made it abundantly clear that you do, but for those of us living here a second Trump term will be very bad indeed.


Ay mi querido Doctor Lee. Contemplate how significant that asshole Prez 45 is in the grand scheme of the aging of Planet Earth aka the Third Rock from the Sun:




And all the beauty in the world is still there darling...for all of us.

Have faith and persevere @Drlee you are surviving this pandemic....keep going and running til the finish line...of being a true Doctor. Tienes buen corazon. Eso es algo grande.

The young people are out there. Talented and full of energy. A great thing. Hope. A beautiful concept Drlee.

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