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By annatar1914
#15122945
@Drlee , man have you ever got me wrong. But let me break it down where you have misunderstood;


I think Trump is going to win a second term. And in doing so will convert the justice department into his personal enforcement arm. With the court in his pocket it will mean the virtual end of democracy in the US with no mechanism to get it back. He has a large army in 2nd amendment supporters he can call a militia and the coup will be complete.


America was born in what would be considered a pretty ''Conservative'' Revolution now, so it comes as no surprise to me that it's happening again now.

I am not a liberal as you are trying to use the term.


Nor did I say you were. You are distinct from the Nationalist-Populist crowd around President Trump now though.

I am an originalist when it comes to the constitution. So, we are told to believe, is his likely replacement to Ginsburg. I do not believe that. An originalist, for example, would not allow Trump to declare fake emergencies and take appropriations away from the house.


This increase in Presidential authority came out of the crisis of Capitalism to begin with, and only got worse with the Cold War. You know this also.

If the right to appropriate money only becomes how much and not for what the house may as well disband. It will serve no purpose.


Have you read the US Constitution lately? It's a very elastic document.


No Annitar. I can understand why you would like the US to fall and you have made it abundantly clear that you do, but for those of us living here a second Trump term will be very bad indeed.


That's slanderous, you know. I'm an American, and I consider myself a patriot and the last thing I want is for America to ''fall''. But America lived before 1776, and will live on for I imagine quite a few centuries more, whether this experiment endures as the founding fathers wanted to believe that it would or not. Man proposes and God disposes, and I pray and I trust that ideology will not blind people to all the good that we have here.
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By Wulfschilde
#15123012
I'm calling it now, Joe seems demoralized. He recently told a room full of military people to "clap, you stupid bastards" and his voice sounded bitter to me.

More subtly, he also said recently that he was not going to start "serious" debate prep until today (Saturday). With a personality like Joe's, basically the worst possible matchup against Trump because they're the same but Trump is better at it, he should have been in debate prep for weeks, maybe even months. This running for President thing, you don't start seriously prepping for it only a few days out. It's obvious from this and other events (like when he said that he "probably" has no chance of winning) that Joe is not very enthusiastic about this.
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By annatar1914
#15123019
Wulfschilde wrote:I'm calling it now, Joe seems demoralized. He recently told a room full of military people to "clap, you stupid bastards" and his voice sounded bitter to me.

More subtly, he also said recently that he was not going to start "serious" debate prep until today (Saturday). With a personality like Joe's, basically the worst possible matchup against Trump because they're the same but Trump is better at it, he should have been in debate prep for weeks, maybe even months. This running for President thing, you don't start seriously prepping for it only a few days out. It's obvious from this and other events (like when he said that he "probably" has no chance of winning) that Joe is not very enthusiastic about this.


I think Biden was just nominated by the Democrat establishment to deny Sanders the nomination primarily, and also as a ploy to desperately avoid prosecution for Russiagate and Burisma, etc... Were Trump to actually be defeated by Biden (which is unlikely and always was unlikely, considering Biden's flaws, so they are desperate). In Washington that's what happens when you win; your crooked dealings and abuses of power tend to go away.
Last edited by annatar1914 on 27 Sep 2020 16:37, edited 1 time in total.
By Doug64
#15123055
Here's the latest from RealClearPolitics:

    Over the past week, Biden's lead in the RCP's average betting odds has continued to rise, back up to Biden +7.7 from Biden +7.2.

    RCP National Average: Biden 49.6 Trump 42.9 Spread Biden +6.7 (R+0.8 )
    Battleground States Average: Biden 46.6 Trump 45.7 Spread Biden +0.9 (R+1.8 )

    Electoral College Map: Biden 255 (+22) Trump 126 (-16) Toss Ups (spread less than +5) 157 (-6)
    Electoral College No Toss Ups: Biden 352 Trump 186

    Battlegrounds (* means latest poll is over a month old)
    Arizona: Biden 48.3 Trump 45.1 Spread Biden +3.2 (R+1.8 )
    Florida: Biden 48.7 Trump 47.4 Spread Biden +1.3 (R+0.3)
    Georgia: Biden 44.8 Trump 47.0 Spread Trump +2.2
    Iowa: Biden 46.0 Trump 46.0 Spread Trump +0.0 (D+2.0)
    New Hampshire: Biden 45.0 Trump 42.0 Spread Biden +3.0
    North Carolina: Biden 46.7 Trump 45.9 Spread Biden +0.8 (R+0.1)
    Ohio: Biden 49.0 Trump 45.7 Spread Biden +3.3 (R+0.7)
    Pennsylvania: Biden 48.8 Trump 44.5 Spread Biden +4.3
    Texas: Biden 45.0 Trump 48.0 Spread Trump +3.0 (R+1.0)

    2020 vs. 2016
    Top Battlegrounds: 2020 D+0.9 2016 D+2.4 Spread Trump +1.5 (R+1.8 )
    RCP National Average: 2020 D+6.7 2016 D+1.6 Spread Biden +5.1 (R+0.4)
    Favorability Ratings: 2020 D+16.1 2016 D+7.0 Spread Biden +11.5 +9.1 (R+2.4)

For the Senate, as per the Cook Report, this week the Democrats improve their odds very slightly (+0.1). Giving each party 2/3 of their leaners, 1/2 of the toss-ups, and 1/3 of the opposite party's leaners, this would give the Democrats 50.8 and the Republicans 49.2. So absent a wave election either way, even if Biden loses the Democrats are likely to win the Senate ... barely, for a couple years:

  • No election Democrat (35)
  • Safe Democrat (10): Delaware (D), Illinois (D), Massachusetts (D), Minnesota (D), New Hampshire (D), New Jersey (D), New Mexico (D), Oregon (D), Rhode Island (D), Virginia (D)
  • Leans Democrat (3): Arizona (R), Colorado (R), Michigan (D)
  • Toss-Ups (5): Georgia (R), Iowa (R), Maine (R), Montana (R), North Carolina (R)
  • Leans Republican (4): Alabama (D), Georgia (R), Kansas (R), South Carolina (R)
  • Likely Republican (3): Alaska (R), Kentucky (R), Texas (R)
  • Safe Republican (10): Arkansas (R), Idaho (R), Louisiana (R), Mississippi (R), Nebraska (R), Oklahoma (R), South Dakota (R), Tennessee (R), West Virginia (R), Wyoming (R)
  • No election Republican (30)

And for the House, again per the Cook Report, no change this week. Giving each party 2/3 of their leaners, 1/2 of the toss-ups, and 1/3 of the opposite party's leaners, that gives us Democrats 235.67, Republicans 199.33. So again absent a wave that's essentially a wash from 2018's 235 D / 199 R:

  • Safe Democrat: 190
  • Likely Democrat: 17
  • Leans Democrat: 15
  • Toss-Ups: 28
  • Leans Republican: 14
  • Likely Republican: 17
  • Safe Republican: 154

There are eleven governors up for election, and no change from last week. This would give us a slight shift to Democrats 23.5, Republicans 26.5—maybe the Republicans will net a +1:

  • No election Democrat (20)
  • Safe Democrat (2): Delaware (D), Washington (D)
  • Leans Democrat (1): North Carolina (D)
  • Toss-Up (1): Montana (D)
  • Leans Republican (1): Missouri (R)
  • Likely Republican (1): New Hampshire (R)
  • Safe Republican (5): Indiana (R), North Dakota (R), Utah (R), Vermont (R), West Virginia (R)
  • No election Republican (19)
User avatar
By Beren
#15123123


This came at the best moment for Trump, she seems a good pick campaign-wise at least.

I wonder, though, if how much it matters.
By Doug64
#15123159
And for a somewhat amusing story:

New powerhouse: Amish for Trump

    The support for President Trump among Amish folk in rural locales has made them a very viable voting bloc since the 2016 election, when this unique force of pro-Trump fans first emerged.

    Mr. Trump — perceived as a pro-life, pro-faith conservative who supports small businesses — has considerable appeal for the population, which included a cordial meeting with Amish voters from Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, in January. The area is part of a valuable battleground state — along with nearby regions in Ohio.

    Amish voters appear motivated. In the past week, there were multiple horse, buggy and wagon parades in both the aforementioned states in support of the president, complete with American flags and campaign signs. The spirited display charmed the press, while videos and images of the events went viral on social media.

    Just how bodacious is the support for Mr. Trump? Amish PAC, a political action committee founded in 2016 to support the voting bloc, has the insight.

    “There is great stuff happening. Amish PAC is currently focused on running ads in small rural Amish newspapers and newsletters throughout Pennsylvania and Ohio. We’re seeing an explosion of enthusiasm,” a spokesman for Amish PAC tells Inside the Beltway.

    The Amish, he says, vote in favor of individual rights, religious freedom and less government regulation on their farms and businesses. The organization says that both Ohio and Pennsylvania are each home to 100,000 adult residents — and the number is “skyrocketing” due to the group’s large family size, with six to eight children being common.

    “There is one exciting update. For the first time, we have Amish women calling our hotline to register to vote or for information. We never heard from Amish women in 2016. In addition, Amish men are turning up, eager to begin registering their families, workplaces and those close to them,” the spokesman said.

Mind, they aren't blindly accepting of all of Trump's policies, while Trump has been working to reduce the numbers of refugees the Amish have been some of the most accepting of them.

And for a more in-depth look at regional Trump voters, there's the New Yorker: The New Republicans of Pennsylvania
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By Wulfschilde
#15123168
The debate is a couple days away and Joe currently can't talk. They probably aren't giving him his enhancements right now so that he will react better to them after having been off them for awhile.





180 more years!
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By Drlee
#15123275
Fake News. Fake clip by our paid Russian operator.
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By JohnRawls
#15123292
Ufff. So apparently Trump paid 750 USD in taxes.... So uhh... Alt-righters, how do you like Trump after knowing that he is behaving like those shitry corporations? Or can you give him a pass for that? I mean, you have overlooked great many things already so what is so bad at overlooking this?
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By jimjam
#15123349
I hear Fat Donald will show up at the podium with an assault gun and a few bibles :eek:
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By Wulfschilde
#15123424
I read an interesting theory on the internet just now. After four years of constantly debating a hostile and accusatory press, is President Trump better at this form of debate than he ever has been? It seems possible.

What's certain is that there is probably literally nothing that Biden or anyone else could say that will phase him at this point.
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By Rancid
#15123426
Wulfschilde wrote:I read an interesting theory on the internet just now. After four years of constantly debating a hostile and accusatory press, is President Trump better at this form of debate than he ever has been? It seems possible.

What's certain is that there is probably literally nothing that Biden or anyone else could say that will phase him at this point.


He is in best form, and yes, there's nothing that could phase him.

Not sure why everyone is running with the tax thing like it's some sort of bombshell that's going to change anything.

Everyone is dug in, the only loser is America at large, and it's all good.
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By Wulfschilde
#15123468
I just watched Trump's PA rally. It was largely him practicing all of the lines he's clearly going to use in the debate. It's gonna be brutal :lol:
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By Rancid
#15123474
Wulfschilde wrote:I just watched Trump's PA rally. It was largely him practicing all of the lines he's clearly going to use in the debate. It's gonna be brutal :lol:


Yesterday I saw an ad for the debate. My first thought was "oh lordy, I feel horrible for Biden he going to get destroyed". The problem with these debates is that it's basically an entertainment/sports event to the people that watch that stuff. It's not really useful. The debates are just a circus.

What I would love to see instead is a deeper thought out thesis laid out by each candidate. What they think the issues are, what they are going to do, what data there is to backup what they are saying, etc. etc. would never happen, but yea, that would be more useful.
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By Wulfschilde
#15123629
Rancid wrote:Yesterday I saw an ad for the debate. My first thought was "oh lordy, I feel horrible for Biden he going to get destroyed". The problem with these debates is that it's basically an entertainment/sports event to the people that watch that stuff. It's not really useful. The debates are just a circus.

What I would love to see instead is a deeper thought out thesis laid out by each candidate. What they think the issues are, what they are going to do, what data there is to backup what they are saying, etc. etc. would never happen, but yea, that would be more useful.

I agree with you but with one caveat. Now that running geriatrics has become normal, the debates may be useful in terms of seeing who is more with it. Same thing happened with Hillary in 2016 although I suspect that Biden is going to be much worse.
By Doug64
#15123648
And now Democrats may be deciding that massive mail-in voting isn’t such a good idea, after all:

Democrats Bail on Their Mail-Voting Experiment

    It all seemed to start when Democratic Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted that she will be “voting early and in person,” bucking the multimillion-dollar campaign to push the 2020 presidential election to the mail, funded by her party and a constellation of nonprofit groups. She was not alone in the days that followed. Prominent Democrats from Joe Biden to the Black PAC and even the Obamas shifted stances.

    Naturally, the mail-voting proponents-turned-nervous-skeptics will lash the president and the Postal Service for their conversions — but that only gets them so far. The growing mountain of evidence shows America faces inherent challenges with an emergency, bulk-mail voting experiment. That trend is not helped by legal agreements between Democratic Party attorneys and chummy state election officials. Citizens are predictably blanching at news of dropped witness requirements in Virginia; allowing mail ballot counting days after Election Day in Pennsylvania and North Carolina; and even weeks later in Michigan. Don’t even get folks started on new ballot-harvesting allowances tucked into some of these deals.

    Back when America used to debate policy, conservatives were quick to scold the left for stressing systems to breaking points to justify their utopian replacement. Remember how the public option would eventually lead to single-payer health care? Leftist groups have long pined for federal expansions of mail balloting, and the pandemic delivered the ultimate unwasted crisis. In the early months of the pandemic, mail voting was touted as a logical response to safety and sanitation concerns. It was supposed to be easy, since Oregon and Washington already do it, and millions of Americans rely on behemoths like Amazon and Walmart to get essential goods from click to doorstep.

    Beware the central planners short on personal experience with little regard for history. The blowback was immediately obvious.

    Just as 2020 primaries started to pick up and several states adopted mass-mail systems, federal data helped set the table for the year: from 2012 to 2018, 28,000,000 mail ballots were declared “unable to be tracked” after leaving county offices; their status is officially considered “unknown.” Another 2.1 million ballots bounced off wrong addresses. More than 1.2 million ballots were rejected upon official receipt. Mail-voting apologists scoffed, saying these missing ballots were probably just in landfills. Wisconsin demonstrated recently how some ballots can get there by way of a ditch.

    To get rid of a lawsuit funded by the Democrats, Clark County, Nevada, agreed to send a ballot to every registered voter during the June primary, against the warnings of county employees that it would cause waste and confusion. In the aftermath, the county government disclosed to the Public Interest Legal Foundation that more than 223,000 ballots were sent to bad addresses and were returned to sender. This must have been a major point of concern for Democrats, given that more of these were intended for their voters, as opposed to the GOP.

    Novice mass-mail voting officials in New York and New Jersey put on master classes in how to induce panic. In New Jersey, a Paterson City Council election result was tossed after a judge found it was “rife with mail in vote procedural violations.” More than a month after June primaries, The Atlantic declared the “chaos in New York is a warning,” given ballots were still being counted and at least 20% were rejected.

    Rejections, above all, keep the mail-ballot hustlers awake at night. The scholarship is clear: first-time mail-ballot users are most prone to see their choices hit the discard bin. The current reject tally for 2020 sits at 550,000 — that’s nearly equal to the numbers for the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections combined.

    Mass-mail balloting is proving to be a modern voter-disenfranchisement machine.

    Back in June, Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez touted the fun and ease of voting by mail: “Vote while your kids are yelling . . . vote without your pants on . . . vote in your pajamas!”

    The mindset of assuming convenience and safety has brought Democrats to this pivot point. It also overlooks the increased demand for manpower from an overwhelmingly aging volunteer population to process all of those ballots — let alone the necessary establishment of mass-balloting supply chains where none existed before.

    Vote in person this November. It’s an elegant solution.
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By Potemkin
#15123663
Rancid wrote:Yesterday I saw an ad for the debate. My first thought was "oh lordy, I feel horrible for Biden he going to get destroyed". The problem with these debates is that it's basically an entertainment/sports event to the people that watch that stuff. It's not really useful. The debates are just a circus.

What I would love to see instead is a deeper thought out thesis laid out by each candidate. What they think the issues are, what they are going to do, what data there is to backup what they are saying, etc. etc. would never happen, but yea, that would be more useful.

Lol, okay Poindexter. :lol:
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By Rancid
#15123668
@Potemkin, by the way, Andrew Yang did just that. Laid out a thesis.... it didn't work. :hmm: :hmm: :hmm: :lol:

I remember when I saw/heard it all, I thought to my self "No way this guy's getting elected, we don't elect smart people in America."

Yang 2020! :lol:
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By Beren
#15123673
Rancid wrote:we don't elect smart people in America.

Yang 2020! :lol:

You actually do and in my opinion Yang would have a better chance to beat Trump than Biden does, however, he just didn't have a chance to get the Democratic nomination.
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