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By Finfinder
#15129220
Random American wrote:Most of the Trump tax cuts went to the 1%, so it's not like this is a great break for everyone. It was a handout to the rich, and Biden makes it clear he wants to raise taxes on the rich, not on the little guy. I also don't need to defend Biden's covid policy as any person would be better than some moron who de facto opposes mask wearing.


Random American wrote: that doesn't really paint your intelligence in a positive light.

A lot of dumb points to refute here.



I agree with your post about your posts.

So your answer is a "talking point" that happens to not be true and you refuse to answer any other questions.

Let me know if you have any of your own words that can refute specifically what I posted. Have a good day!!
User avatar
By ingliz
#15129223
Oxymoron wrote:What rubbish is that?

Under Trump, the US economy has been hit by the biggest economic contraction ever recorded...

In the second quarter of 2020 - accounting for April, May and June - the economy contracted by over 30%

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

and the highest unemployment rate in more than 80 years...

The rate jumped to 14.7% in April, the highest level since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics


:)
User avatar
By Random American
#15129224
Finfinder wrote:I agree with your post about your posts.

So your answer is a "talking point" that happens to not be true and you refuse to answer any other questions.

Let me know if you have any of your own words that can refute specifically what I posted. Have a good day!!

Hey, if you want to quote me and have an actual discussion/debate, then do so. If you want to be an unintelligent Trumpian, keep doing what you're doing. :) Because I'm not an uncritical Biden supporter, just someone who thinks he is just a bit better than Trump. Hell, I'm not even a liberal.

And your post was incredibly moronic because Biden doesn't even support single payer nor have I seen any evidence that he supports the green new deal. That's another faction of the party. You're just trying to sealion. Honestly, that wasn't even worthy of a response.
By Doug64
#15129225
Random American wrote:Just ignore stupid comments. I had to learn that here, and even with that level of stupidity, it would take a lot more than that to make this site just as bad as stormfront, even though in my opinion it could be run a bit better.

Works for me, I haven’t been responding to Drlee’s posts since he accused me of killing my mother.
By Doug64
#15129230
@Random American, no big, no reason you should have known, it’s not like I made a big deal about it. It was on my Wuhan virus thread. He was on one of his rants, and asked us to think of our mothers. I pointed out my mother is dead, and he jumped to the conclusion that the Wuhan virus got her (it was breast cancer) and told me I killed her. I stared at the post for a few minutes, reported it, and haven’t responded to him since.
#15129255
@Random American

In addition, it should be noted that Biden is a bit more likable than Clinton as she came off as more entitled and narcissistic than Biden, with her giving off the vibe of "vote for me or you're a racist/sexist" while Biden comes off as more genuine to some. But yes, mainly the virus. People want a sense of normalcy while Trump acts like a clown.


People need security. If they don't get security, nothing else matters. A leader who can't deliver security to the people in my opinion will quickly find themselves out of power. Security is a basic need to be able to survive and flourish. This is also why in some bad work places, where people have a sense of insecurity, they aren't motivated to work as hard. This can hurt the productivity of a company or in this case a whole nation. Their basic needs aren't being met. So a leader has to be able to provide security. And all the failures and mistakes that happen is ALWAYS the leader's fault.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15129256
Politics_Observer wrote:@Random American



People need security. If they don't get security, nothing else matters. A leader who can't deliver security to the people in my opinion will quickly find themselves out of power. Security is a basic need to be able to survive and flourish. This is also why in some bad work places, where people have a sense of insecurity, they aren't motivated to work as hard. This can hurt the productivity of a company or in this case a whole nation. Their basic needs aren't being met. So a leader has to be able to provide security. And all the failures and mistakes that happen is ALWAYS the leader's fault.


This is true, but it's also very easy to manipulate people into feeling unsafe/secure regardless of whether or not they are unsafe/secure. In fact, that's the playbook for the Trump campaign, make people believe they will be less safe if Biden is president. For example, get people to believe Biden wants to defund all police, whether that's true or not (it's not) it doesn't matter. What matters is that people believe it, perception is king. As long as you can create certain perception in people's heads, that's what matters, and Trump is really good at doing that. Basically, fuck reality, just tell people what they want to hear, even if it's unrealistic, even if it's batshit crazy. This strategy is in one of Trumps books where he states something to the effect of "play to people's fantasies."
#15129258
@Rancid

Rancid wrote:This is true, but it's also very easy to manipulate people into feeling unsafe/secure regardless of whether or not they are unsafe/secure. In fact, that's the playbook for the Trump campaign, make people believe they will be less safe if Biden is president. For example, get people to believe Biden wants to defund all police, whether that's true or not (it's not) it doesn't matter. What matters if that people believe it, perception is king. As long as you can create certain perception in people's heads, that's what matters, and Trump is really good at doing that. Basically, fuck reality, just tell people what they want to hear, even if it's unrealistic, even if it's batshit crazy. This strategy is in one of Trumps books "play to people's fantasies."


I think Trump uses these methods of manipulation to play to peoples fears more than anything. If that means lying to play to peoples fears, then that's what he'll do. This is also the playbook of republicans. Talk about immigrants "taking your jobs" and play to those fears to get elected. But, once they are in power, they don't have any real goals to achieve anything meaningful for the people nor do they have a plan to do so.

Eventually, over the long term, this strategy of playing to peoples fears begins to fall apart. This sort of strategy of playing to peoples fears whether real or imagined is the playbook of dictators and despots and I learned how this sort of thing was done by dictators and despots that started wars on my overseas tours. Their strategy not only involves playing to peoples fears, but also dividing people and getting them against each other.

Keeping people divided and against each other is their strategy to stay in power. But in the long term, this strategy is very likely to fail. Milsoevic in the Balkans did this kind of thing and ultimately, as a former of head of state, he ended up convicted of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Tribunal of Yugoslavia. See these kinds of people are cons and frauds and don't have a goal or plan to meet peoples needs and dreams. Their goal and plan is staying in power at any cost no matter what.

But in the long term, it always come backs to haunt them. And that's how it was with Milosevic when he ultimately met his fate as a war criminal in front of a court of law. See, I have seen this before. But these dictators are ultimately short sighted and unwise and don't understand the path they are taking themselves as well as others on.
User avatar
By colliric
#15129278
Looks like Democratic Voters are going early again.

But the increased voter turnout is most likely a return to the overall upward trend of earlier decades that went into "recession" in 2012 and 2016.

The 2018 midterms also rose significantly and dramatically on 2014 and that turned out to be good news for the Republican Party.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html

It's Game On. Trump closes to 5 points by next Friday.... Mark my words.

Edit
Just a reminder how the Democrats won the previous 2 elections:


Although that crowd is depressing as shit. This is why you announce Obama in advance so your crowd can bloody well show up and not look like a parking lot. Even I have to admit he can give a solid speech and is a tough sonofabitch.

Obama doesn't believe Biden's "way in front" polls, an interesting admission. He's a poll skeptic(unlike some users here!), knows Trump can still win it.
By Doug64
#15129300
Image

Here's this week's Rasmussen White House Watch (I toss in the subcategories for fun, but don't take them too seriously--smaller samples means wider margin of error and more swingy). And the poll continues to narrow, now Biden +3, one point higher than Clinton's +2 in 2016. One more week to go....

    If the presidential race in 2020 was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?

    • Donald Trump 46% (+1)
    • Joe Biden 49% (-1)
    • Some other candidate 2%
    • Not sure 2% (-1)

    Male (49%)
    • Donald Trump 48% (+1)
    • Joe Biden 48%
    • Some other candidate 3%
    • Not sure 1% (-1)

    Female (51%)
    • Donald Trump 44% (+2)
    • Joe Biden 51% (-2)
    • Some other candidate 2%
    • Not sure 3%

    Age 18-39 (35%)
    • Donald Trump 43% (-5)
    • Joe Biden 51% (+5)
    • Some other candidate 4%
    • Not sure 3% (-1)

    Age 40-64 (48%)
    • Donald Trump 49% (+5)
    • Joe Biden 58% (-4)
    • Some other candidate 2% (+1)
    • Not sure 2% (-1)

    Age 65+ (17%)
    • Donald Trump 45% (+4)
    • Joe Biden 52% (-3)
    • Some other candidate 2%
    • Not sure 2% (-1)

    Whites (69%)
    • Donald Trump 51% (+5)
    • Joe Biden 47% (-3)
    • Some other candidate 1% (-1)
    • Not sure 2%

    Blacks (12%)
    • Donald Trump 22% (-1)
    • Joe Biden 72% (+3)
    • Some other candidate 1% (-1)
    • Not sure 4% (+1)

    Others (18%)
    • Donald Trump 45% (-8)
    • Joe Biden 44% (+6)
    • Some other candidate 8% (+3)
    • Not sure 3% (-2)

    Republicans (33%)
    • Donald Trump 82% (+1)
    • Joe Biden 17%
    • Some other candidate 1% (-1)
    • Not sure 0% (-1)

    Independents (30%)
    • Donald Trump 42% (+3)
    • Joe Biden 49% (-1)
    • Some other candidate 4%
    • Not sure 5% (-2)

    Democrats (37%)
    • Donald Trump 18% (+1)
    • Joe Biden 79% (-1)
    • Some other candidate 2% (+1)
    • Not sure 1%

    Attended High School
    • Donald Trump 69% (+16)
    • Joe Biden 33% (-9)
    • Some other candidate 2% (-11)
    • Not sure 5% (+3)

    High School Graduate
    • Donald Trump 56% (-1)
    • Joe Biden 38% (+2)
    • Some other candidate 4% (+2)
    • Not sure 2% (-3)

    Attended College
    • Donald Trump 47% (+3)
    • Joe Biden 47% (-5)
    • Some other candidate 4% (+2)
    • Not sure 2%

    College Graduate
    • Donald Trump 47% (+2)
    • Joe Biden 50% (-1)
    • Some other candidate 2%
    • Not sure 1% (-1)

    Graduate School
    • Donald Trump 34%
    • Joe Biden 62% (+1)
    • Some other candidate 1% (-1)
    • Not sure 3%
By Doug64
#15129305
Also, another look at mail-in ballots returned and early in-person voting in some battleground states by party breakdown, and how the total compares to 2016. Interestingly, in all three the percentage compared to 2016 has dropped. My guess, those choosing to vote by mail are also choosing to send it in earlier, which would mean we can expect it to continue to drop as we get closer to November 3rd:

  • Ohio: 1,493,410 mail-ins & early voters, R 47%, I 13%, D 40%, +121%
  • Michigan: 1,695,900 mail-ins & early voters, R 40%, I 20%, D 40%, +242%
  • Wisconsin: 902,908 mail-ins & early voters, R 39%, I 22%, D 39%, +275%
By Doug64
#15129311
Black Consequense wrote:Damn, if that's the poll results that's the highest republican response since Nixon.

True, though I don't actually expect it to be that high--voters tend to flirt with voting for "the other guy," then come home when they get in the voting booth or not vote at all. But if Trump's percentage of the Black vote is 18% or even 16%, the Democrats could have a very bad night.
User avatar
By colliric
#15129313
Obama called democrats, who didn't vote at the last election because they believed the polls so didn't bother voting "Lazy and complacent", and told his Democratic audience they can't trust the polls this time either.

At least the former President understands the situation, even if some democratic supporters here refuse to see it.

Trump can and most likely WILL win the Electoral College again. You need a big swing of at least 33 votes. To put it bluntly, Democrats need to win Florida clear(with no Trump gains), or take back at least 40-50 votes elsewhere.

It won't happen. Trump has retained the majority of his supporters and probably the swing won't be big enough.

We could see a repeat of 2000. Trump wins Florida, he'll get to 270 and victory, can afford a minor 20 point swing against him. It's possible this could go to the Supreme Court again.
By Doug64
#15129317
@colliric, right now, give Trump all the states where Biden's lead is four points or less, and Biden wins by 278 to 260--Trump needs Pennsylvania (D+4.9) or Wisconsin (D+4.6) to win. And of course, that assumes that the race continues to tighten and Trump wins all those D+4 or lower states.
User avatar
By Wulfschilde
#15129322
Doug64 wrote:Also, another look at mail-in ballots returned and early in-person voting in some battleground states by party breakdown, and how the total compares to 2016. Interestingly, in all three the percentage compared to 2016 has dropped. My guess, those choosing to vote by mail are also choosing to send it in earlier, which would mean we can expect it to continue to drop as we get closer to November 3rd:

  • Ohio: 1,493,410 mail-ins & early voters, R 47%, I 13%, D 40%, +121%
  • Michigan: 1,695,900 mail-ins & early voters, R 40%, I 20%, D 40%, +242%
  • Wisconsin: 902,908 mail-ins & early voters, R 39%, I 22%, D 39%, +275%

This is why I've been looking at Florida a lot. If Trump can win mail-ins in these states, he's going to win most of the former blue wall easily.

So, the main points are PA and FL. Both Biden and Trump are in PA a lot right now, which suggests that it's where the action is.

My analysis of Florida early votes shows the Democrat's lead shrinking as of day 3 data, if this continues Trump will have FL in the bag too. If he wins most of the blue wall and FL he'll win the presidency even without PA.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15129325
Wulfschilde wrote:This is why I've been looking at Florida a lot. If Trump can win mail-ins in these states, he's going to win most of the former blue wall easily.

So, the main points are PA and FL. Both Biden and Trump are in PA a lot right now, which suggests that it's where the action is.

My analysis of Florida early votes shows the Democrat's lead shrinking as of day 3 data, if this continues Trump will have FL in the bag too. If he wins most of the blue wall and FL he'll win the presidency even without PA.


The chances of this happening is very low. :)
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