Arctic sea ice - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By BeesKnee5
#15108464
As at today the Arctic ice extent is 500,000km2 lower than any other year in the modem record.

It is already lower than the average low reached in the 1990s with 2 months of melting still to go. Expectations are now that come September it will be in the top 3 lowest, even if the weather is kind.

So why is this happening?
We don't have all the answers but in theory 2020 should've been a recovery year, lowest point in the solar cycle and no strong el Nino or la Nina.
It looks like the reduction of fossil fuel use and travel has had a big part to play. The reduction in sulphur emissions and particulate has reduced the cooling gases in the short term, it also reduced contrails from aircraft which seed clouds.

This additional heat has been most noticeable over the large landmass of Central Asia, with temperatures in northern Siberia going off the charts. This has led to significant fires in areas that were formerly permafrost.
These fires have generated soot that blew across the Arctic, darkening the ice.

The unusual lack of cloud cover over the Arctic for the past two months at the time when the sun is highest and the reduced albedo caused by the soot have decimated the ice.

Things do not look good for the rest of the melt season.
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By Odiseizam
#15129579
put it on the methane tab ... recently I made some fracking math on eupedia forum and it seems methane is big concern ...

in same time americans are diverting their responsibility accusing russians for this situation [1] sadly but as always propaganda will cover the real treat and defocus the masses, as result nothing will be undertaken and the problem will worsen!

probably we are close to the feedback loop, if we have not runaway already ///
Last edited by Odiseizam on 23 Oct 2020 11:47, edited 1 time in total.
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By Odiseizam
#15129580
... unintentional double post, but through this reedit I'll take the opportunity to ask for opinions on the proposed linked math! also if someone is knowledgeable please share info how Russia makes methane leakage impact with its own fracking compared to usA!?
By BeesKnee5
#15129961
It's not looking good right now, the clear skies earlier in the year have led to the sea around the ice being warmer so the ice isnt refreezing as it normally would.

2020 sea ice extent is over 600,000km2 lower than last year and over 1.2M km2 lower than any other year on record. Almost half the extent and only 25% of the volume seen in the 1980s.
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By Rancid
#15129963
BeesKnee5 wrote:It's not looking good right now, the clear skies earlier in the year have led to the sea around the ice being warmer so the ice isnt refreezing as it normally would.

2020 sea ice extent is over 600,000km2 lower than last year and over 1.2M km2 lower than any other year on record. Almost half the extent and only 25% of the volume seen in the 1980s.


I think all we can bank on is algae farms that such up CO2
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By Godstud
#15129980
The earth only has so much CO2. There can be no run-away Greenhouse Effect on earth, because of this. CO2 is the least of our problems.

The truth is, they know so little about ice volume and what happens with more, or less, that it's all pretty much conjecture. Educated guesses, at best. We need decades of more research on what is a relatively new science. The "Modern Record" isn't even 50 years old, yet.
By BeesKnee5
#15130170
Godstud wrote:The earth only has so much CO2. There can be no run-away Greenhouse Effect on earth, because of this. CO2 is the least of our problems.

The truth is, they know so little about ice volume and what happens with more, or less, that it's all pretty much conjecture. Educated guesses, at best. We need decades of more research on what is a relatively new science. The "Modern Record" isn't even 50 years old, yet.


How much CO2 do you think the Earth has?
We know that historic CO2 levels have exceeded 2000ppm on several occasions in the past.


Knowing the ice extent and thickness enables the calculation of volume. In a decades time then at this rate there will be nothing left to measure in the summer. Both are now accessible through satelite data and direct observation.


The action of ice on the atmosphere is not conjecture, it straightforward understanding of latent heat. It takes the same amount of energy to melt ice as it does to raise water to nearly 80C, so at the moment that ice is having a huge cooling effect on the atmosphere, once it's gone then the energy that was melting the ice will warm the ocean and therefore the atmosphere.

We can see this right now in the Arctic, where there is ice the air temp is nearly 20C colder than areas where the ice melted in June and the Ocean has absorbed all that heat during the summer.


In this image you can physically see the area off the siberian coast that would normally be frozen but is now much warmer. You can also see the impact of this warming on the jetstream, the temperature differential has broken down causing it to meander, resulting in colder arctic air sinking into the mid latitudes over north america.

Image
Last edited by BeesKnee5 on 25 Oct 2020 21:23, edited 1 time in total.
By late
#15130330
Rancid wrote:
I think all we can bank on is algae farms that suck up CO2



You might want cost that out before you bet the rent...
By late
#15130331
Godstud wrote:
The earth only has so much CO2. There can be no run-away Greenhouse Effect on earth, because of this. CO2 is the least of our problems.

The truth is, they know so little about ice volume and what happens with more, or less, that it's all pretty much conjecture. Educated guesses, at best. We need decades of more research on what is a relatively new science. The "Modern Record" isn't even 50 years old, yet.



Let me guess, you got your degree in climatology out of a Cracker Jack box.
By late
#15130358
Rancid wrote:
https://www.hypergiant.com/

These guys are doing it. Right here in Austin Texas. USA save's the world once again.



No, they're not, unless you can get people to eat millions of tons of algae.

Algae burgers by the billion!
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By Rancid
#15130360
late wrote:No, they're not, unless you can get people to eat millions of tons of algae.

Algae burgers by the billion!



I'm a wizard, not a prophet.
By B0ycey
#15130368
Godstud wrote:The earth only has so much CO2. There can be no run-away Greenhouse Effect on earth, because of this. CO2 is the least of our problems.


This isn't true I'm afraid. Or a least not in a conventional sense. CO2 is a compound not an element. Oxygen is the most abundant element on Earth and carbon is significant. Whilst there is graphite in your pencil and oxygen for you to breathe, CO2 levels can increase especially if you burn fossil fuels.
By late
#15130384
Rancid wrote:
I'm a wizard, not a prophet.



I've been ignoring cost, which would be prohibitive. But, playing along with the joke, you would need to grow millions of tons of stuff and then do something with it. I'd suggest pumping into old mines and oil wells.

But seriously, if you look at the numbers, they are crazy large.
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By Rancid
#15130387
late wrote:
I've been ignoring cost, which would be prohibitive. But, playing along with the joke, you would need to grow millions of tons of stuff and then do something with it. I'd suggest pumping into old mines and oil wells.

But seriously, if you look at the numbers, they are crazy large.


Just burn it....

oh wait....
User avatar
By Potemkin
#15130553
late wrote:No, they're not, unless you can get people to eat millions of tons of algae.

Algae burgers by the billion!

It may come to that, eventually. :|

Meh, we eat shit burgers now, our descendants may as well eat algae burgers.... Lol.

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