The US is loosing the technology war against China - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15140259
The US is losing the competition of technological innovation against China. This is nowhere more visible then in mobile telecommunications. While Europe and China each has two manufacturers for 5G technology, the US doesn't have a single one. The US has even given up developing its own technology. US attempts to simply buy foreign technology firms won't work this time. Neither Europe nor China is willing to part with its big technology companies. Attempts to push the Chinese off the market are bound to fail with billions of users worldwide using Chinese technology. By trying to stifle the competition, the US will be further retarded while the rest of the world powers ahead.

The US has off-shored much of its manufacturing. Together with offshoring manufacturing it has lost manufacturing and product technology. Attempts to compensate the missing hardware by software are bound to fail. The system won't work without the hardware and software can always be had, increasingly even for free.

Prosperity in the industrial countries is based on technological innovation. 90% of innovation is in manufacturing. The loss of manufacturing precedes the loss of prosperity.

Huawei hits 5G critical mass with Germany’s approval

Germany will allow Huawei to build out part of its 5G network, the business daily Handelsblatt reported last week after viewing a new draft law that the Angela Merkel government will submit to the Bundestag next month.

Japan and South Korea politely but firmly refused to exclude the Chinese telecommunications giant from their networks in October. Among the world’s major economies, only the US, UK, India and Taiwan plan to block Huawei 5G equipment.

Huawei now has the inside track in the race to develop “Fourth Industrial Revolution” applications that exploit 5G capabilities, including self-programming industrial robots, remote-control mining, “smart city” traffic management, telemedicine, and pandemic control.

For example, Huawei expects to add the digitized medical history and real-time health monitoring of half a billion people outside China to its Cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) systems during the 2020s. China’s dominance in 5G, moreover, gives it a head start in developing next phase 6G broadband.

The German decision not to block any particular equipment provider from its 5G buildout was widely expected after Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in the US presidential election. Biden’s advisers have stated in the past that it is unrealistic to try to exclude billions of Huawei users from global communications networks.

A recent report entitled “Meeting The China Challenge: A New American Strategy for Technology Competition” from the Asia Society and the University of Southern California, declared: “While a ban on Huawei is feasible in some key countries, especially allies and partners, this is a global networking challenge that requires multifaceted solutions. Considering that Chinese components, user terminals, and software will be intermixed among the billions of connected end users of 5G globally, a total global market ban on Huawei and other Chinese suppliers is not practical.”

Some of the report’s authors are prospective Biden administration officials.

Japanese media reported in mid-October that Tokyo rejected American demands to exclude Huawei from its 5G network, and told Washington that it would take its own security measures to ensure the safety of data transmitted through Huawei hardware.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said that a senior South Korean official told a high-level American delegation, “We made it clear that whether a private telecom company uses the equipment of a specific enterprise is up to that company to decide.”

Russian 5G will be made in China,” the Russian business daily Kommersant reported in September after the Russian mobile provider MTS switched from Nokia to Huawei equipment to upgrade Moscow’s mobile network. Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping signed an umbrella agreement on 5G cooperation, including for joint research and development, at the 2019 St Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Excluding Huawei’s 5G equipment from Germany would have caused major disruptions because the new 5G networks must be integrated with existing 4G equipment. Huawei accounts for 65% of the 4G infrastructure of Deutsche Telekom, Germany’s top mobile service provider, as well as 55% of Vodaphone’s equipment and 50% of Telefonica’s.

German officials earlier this month described the Huawei decision as a cliffhanger, as German industrial lobbyists wrangled with German security officials who were reluctant to incur the wrath of the American intelligence community. Trump’s loss at the polls appears to have tipped the balance in favor of the industry lobby, which wants to work with China.

In Sweden, home of Huawei’s largest competitor Ericsson, the national telecommunications regulator postponed an auction of 5G spectrum after a Swedish appeals court granted Huawei’s petition to reconsider a government ban on the use of its broadband equipment.

Ericsson itself criticized the government ban.
China is one of Ericsson’s largest markets, and the firm’s biggest and most modern production facility opened last year in Nanjing. Ericsson is expected to build up to 10% of China’s massive 5G network, with a projected 10 million base stations in place by 2024.

One of China’s selling points in the competition for 5G buildout is that Beijing has already begun to develop the next generation, or 6G, broadband. In November, China launched the first experimental 6G satellite, testing transmission of data at Terahertz (extremely short) wavelengths. Researchers have discussed the use of Terahertz radiation as a mobile broadband platform, but China’s satellite launch is the first space-based experimental test.

During an Asia Times webinar in November, I asked industry expert Dr Handel Jones about the prospects for 6G. Jones, the president of International Business Services, a consulting firm, said: “China has at least two or three programs in terms of 6G. It’s a ten-year program, and it will be potentially ten times or a hundred times greater throughout than 5G. Quantum communications is one of the options, and China already has a link with quantum communications between Shanghai and Beijing. Obviously, the US should go to 6G.”

“But who is going to do it?,” Jones added. “We don’t have any company in the US today doing 5G. We have some of the infrastructure but not the base stations, not the fiber optic stuff, so globally, we have Huawei and ZTE in China; in Europe we have Ericsson and Nokia. Samsung is coming up and could be a force in that market in the future. So could some technology in Japan. But in the US, we don’t have any company that is even in 5G.”

The US appears likely to adopt the so-called “Open Radio Access Network” and “Virtualized Radio Access Network” approach, which eschews dedicated 5G base stations with custom-designed chips in favor of cheap, generic hardware powered by complex software.

The cited “China Challenge” report recommended: “The United States should not attempt to win a race between Huawei and a new American national champion. Instead, the United States should adopt a forward-looking strategy to enable a variety of new entrants to enter the 5G innovation space successfully. This strategy would erode dependence on a single equipment provider for the entire 5G network by facilitating the emergence of open and modular architectures such as ORAN or vRAN.”

ORAN/vRan requires the creation of billions of lines of computer code which must then be tested and re-tested in real-world conditions. It is not known whether this approach will work, or how much it will cost. By the time the code is written and the new network is tested, moreover, China will have built out its 10-million-base-station national network and likely will be well advanced in new applications.

This combination of sophisticated software and generic hardware is sometimes advertised as a “6G” answer to Huawei’s dominant position in 5G. That is misleading because the use of extremely short wavelengths to transmit data requires the solution of problems in physics that researchers have only begun to understand. And the use of open networks involving a wide variety of hardware vendors and equipment providers could create a network security nightmare, according to Ericsson.

Jason Boswell, the head of security for Ericsson’s networks division, warned last month, “As the industry evolves towards RAN virtualization, with 3GPP or O-RAN, it is important that a risk-based approach is taken to adequately address security risk. Secure Open RAN systems may require additional security measures not yet fully addressed.” Ericsson quietly dropped out of the industry group promoting ORAN/vRan earlier this year.

American tech companies abandoned the hardware business after the March 2000 stock market crash, and have concentrated almost exclusively on software. The “software-based solution” suits companies whose main business is coding software, but it is unlikely to keep America ahead of China and its growing network of industrial partners.
#15141843
B0ycey wrote:Underestimate China at your peril @Oxymoron. They now have Quantum Supremacy.

:lol: sure they do, just like everyone thought the Soviets had Nuclear superiority to the US in the 60's.
I do not underestimate their economy, or their geopolitical influence but I do underestimate their technological power, and their skill at making things actually perform without western hand holding.
#15141845
Oxymoron wrote::lol: sure they do, just like everyone thought the Soviets had Nuclear superiority to the US in the 60's.
I do not underestimate their economy, or their geopolitical influence but I do underestimate their technological power, and their skill at making things actually perform without western hand holding.


Did you doubt Soviet capacity under your desks I wonder? Patriotic blood runs through your veins so much you enjoy your own hype it seems. Your vision can't pass your nose. That only benefits your opponents if you doubt their capacity.

Nonetheless China don't do pissing contests. They don't reveal their hand until there is something to show. If they say they have Quantum Supremacy, they have Quantum Supremacy. And putting your head in the sand only punishes yourself. That is, unless you don't want to keep up.
#15141847
B0ycey wrote:Did you doubt Soviet capacity under your desks I wonder? Patriotic blood runs through your veins so much you enjoy your own hype it seems. Your vision can't pass your nose. That only benefits your opponents if you doubt their capacity.

Nonetheless China don't do pissing contests. They don't reveal their hand until there is something to show. If they say they have Quantum Supremacy, they have Quantum Supremacy. And putting your head in the sand only punishes yourself. That is, unless you don't want to keep up.



I am stating what I know about China, and as far as doing anything on their own when it comes to technology I do not think much of them.
They can copy things badly, they can produce good products under western supervision but they are not a threat either technologically or militarily.
#15141850
Oxymoron wrote:I am stating what I know about China, and as far as doing anything on their own when it comes to technology I do not think much of them.
They can copy things badly, they can produce good products under western supervision but they are not a threat either technologically or militarily.


Then you don't know anything about China. Didn't you read the article. Nations are going to Huawei for their technology, not China coming to them. Huawei is a state controlled company. Absolutely no outside help. Don't look at your black market Chinese plastic dolls and make a formal decision on their technology.

As for their military, they can look after themselves. I mean, they have just gone to the moon and raised a flag there.

Also being they have the means and finance to overtake America even here and still haven't means they understand geopolitics very well. No point trying to bomb the minds of your opponents when trading is far easier with less baggage.
#15141852
B0ycey wrote:Then you don't know anything about China. Didn't you read the article. Nations are going to Huawei for their technology, not China coming to them. Huawei is a state controlled company. Absolutely no outside help. Don't look at your black market Chinese plastic dolls and make a formal decision on their technology.

As for their military, they can look after themselves. I mean, they have just gone to the moon and raised a flag there.

Also being they have the means and finance to overtake America even here and still haven't means they understand geopolitics very well. No point trying to bomb the minds of your opponents when trading is far easier with less baggage.


Technology they copied from the West, and once countries make the error to go with Huawei they will be crying very soon when it all is a shit show.
Their military is paper thin, they would be crushed by Japan or India. Yes as far as trading there they are doing very well, and will be on par with the US in terms of Economic influence, but less so as far as economic coercion since the US controls the worlds energy supply.
#15141853
Oxymoron wrote:Technology they copied from the West, and once countries make the error to go with Huawei they will be crying very soon when it all is a shit show.
Their military is paper thin, they would be crushed by Japan or India.


WOW. This is so WRONG!!! Japan isn't even meant to have an army.

But the thing is, I know you believe it. Which means the propaganda is strong in the US of A.
#15141855
B0ycey wrote:WOW. This is so WRONG!!! Japan isn't even meant to have an army.

But the thing is, I know you believe it. Which means the propaganda is strong in the US of A.


Not supposed to... and doesn't have are two different things.

Japan is ranked 5th in the Military power ranking, and China comes in Third. Yet based on the technological superiority, and Japanese military spirit I would take Japan over China any day of the week. Obviously talking conventional conflict here.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
#15141856
@Oxymoron, I don't know WTF you have just found on the Internet on your quick Google search to try and cover your ass from the spanking it was getting, but it isn't official and is most definitely wrong. Japan 5th??? That is like insulting to The UK, France, Israel and Pakistan who have nuclear weapons.

Keep up the ignorance.
#15141859
B0ycey wrote:@Oxymoron, I don't know WTF you have just found on the Internet on your quick Google search to try and cover your ass from the spanking it was getting, but it isn't official and is most definitely wrong. Japan 5th??? That is like insulting to The UK, France, Israel and Pakistan who have nuclear weapons.

Keep up the ignorance.


This is not my opinion :lol: , Japan is a very capable military whether official or not. It is globally understood this to be true. The link is valid, if you want to show something else to prove that to be false, please go ahead. As far as Nuclear power, the US covers it with its Nuclear Umbrella as it has many Military bases there. Before you spout your CCP mouth off, learn something kid.
#15141864
Oxymoron wrote:This is not my opinion :lol: , Japan is a very capable military whether official or not. It is globally understood this to be true. The link is valid, if you want to show something else to prove that to be false, please go ahead.


What are you asking for? To provide a subjective ranking for a military not in combat? Even if we ignore China's clear military superiority, they also have 1.6bn people to back it up. The idea that Japan will crush China in war is so wrong, I would rather let you believe your own hype than provide links showing you their differences in capacity.
#15141865
B0ycey wrote:What are you asking for? To provide a subjective ranking for a military not in combat? Even if we ignore China's clear military superiority, they also have 1.6bn people to back it up. The idea that Japan will crush China in war is so wrong, I would rather let you believe your own hype than provide links showing you their differences in capacity.


What is clear is that Japan has the more advanced air force, the more advanced navy. Japan can actually dictate where the battle happens. The Chinese population is meaningless as you have to feed supply and transport your military. Not to mention their military is big but so is the territory they have to protect.
Japan has shown in the past it would annihilate the numerically superior China as it did in WW2. China's military is great for rounding up Ughurs and intimidating Tibetans but is a paper tiger and this was demonstrated in many different historical era's from the Mongolian domination, to the British Opium wars to the beating Japan put on China in WW2.
#15141870
Rancid wrote:I think it's time we roll over to China and let them dictate our futures.


The US will stay a topdog regardless what China do Rancid. The future are superpowers working together. Why else do you think I support Macron's vision of the EU? It is the only way not to be a proxy in the future for Europe.
#15141879
Atlantis wrote:The US is losing the competition of technological innovation against China. This is nowhere more visible then in mobile telecommunications. While Europe and China each has two manufacturers for 5G technology, the US doesn't have a single one.

China and Hauwei stole their telecommunications and 5G tech from Canada. China is the enemy of the West. A Chinese piece of software or hardware will never enter my home. We're all warriors in the New Cold War, choose your sides wisely.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... rom-nortel
#15141882
Unthinking Majority wrote:We're all warriors in the New Cold War, choose your sides wisely.


This is true. We are at minimum, economic warriors.

Just today, I had to buy a pair of license plate light bulbs for my car. I had a few options, and ultimately selected based on country of origin. I selected the Made in Taiwan over Made in China.

I also did this recently with a guitar amp I bought. I selected Made in Malaysia over Made in China. WIth an instrument cable i bought, I selected made in America (with some European components) versus made in china.

Basically, I try my hardest to avoid made in China. No need in giving an obvious enemy of the west any more money if I don't have to.

I think @B0ycey's outlook is a little too optimistic given the behaviors we've already seen coming from China.

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