[Igor Antunov]

Full article is extensive: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

Snippet:

U.S. President Donald Trump famously tweeted that “trade wars are good, and easy to win” in 2018 as he began to impose tariffs on about $360 billion of imports from China. Turns out he was wrong on both counts.

Even before the coronavirus infected millions of Americans and sparked the steepest economic downturn since the Great Depression, China was withstanding Trump’s tariff salvos, according to the very metrics he used to justify them. Once China got the virus under control, demand for medical equipment and work-from-home gear expanded its trade surplus with the U.S. despite the levies.

While trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economic powers didn’t start under Trump, he broadened the fight with the unprecedented tariffs and sanctions on technology companies. The tougher approach, according to the scorecard that follows, didn’t go as he hoped. But he’s leaving his successor Joe Biden a blueprint of what worked and what didn’t.

“China is too big and too important to the world economy to think that you can cut it out like a paper doll” said Mary Lovely, an economics professor at Syracuse University. “The Trump administration had a wake-up call.”

Thoughts?

[wat0n]

Both ended up footing the bill. China did pay a price for it, but of course trade was far from enough to get the Chinese government to change course.

[noemon]

Only coordinated western action can make a dent big enough for China to be forced to negotiate with the west about level-playing fields, industrial dumping, human rights violations and the sort.

[wat0n]

Only coordinated western action can make a dent big enough for China to be forced to negotiate with the west about level-playing fields, industrial dumping, human rights violations and the sort.

Not just Western action. They need to get as many other countries as possible on board if they want to oppose China.

And even that is a dangerous game to play, to the point it's realistic to settle for containment.

[Fasces]

They need to get as many other countries as possible on board if they want to oppose China.

That'd require convincing these former colonial states that continued centuries of Western exploitation is better than Chinese exploitation.

[wat0n]

That'd require convincing these former colonial states that continued centuries of Western exploitation is better than Chinese exploitation.

...Which is actually a lot easier than it sounds. For instance, I can imagine getting India on board with ease.

[Fasces]

For instance, I can imagine getting India on board with ease.

Until they start challenging Western hegemony themselves, at any rate.

[wat0n]

Until they start challenging Western hegemony themselves, at any rate.

Sure, then it becomes a balancing game not unlike the one of European diplomacy until WWI - where the West plays the role of the Perfidious Albion

[Igor Antunov]

Japan and south korean trade with China continues to boom. To skirt Us sanctions Chinese companies moves into Vietnam and now own the manufacturing capacity there. New HSR lines are being built all the way through Laos to Malaysia. Africa is lost in its entirety to the west outside of a few French colonial states with troops presence. India will go its own way not to mention India just lost its very own trade war against china- trade with china is at record high so is the surplus, despite attempts to block Chinese companies from operating int he country. Chinese tech firms control the Indian telecom market. China is about to build India a metro system. A first. Etc.

So all that's off the books.

That leaves South America to join the north American and (western) European camps. Slight problem...EU is doing its own thing, just integrated itself with China's economic goals a week ago with a massive new agreement. Germany will not allow its economy to implode at the behest of an increasingly unstable US. China just rolled a brand new high speed cargo train off the production line and is increasing land based warehousing hubs along its new silk road routes. Fun fact: Trains are the fastest method of bulk cargo transport. Yes, faster than Aircraft.

South America goes where the wind blows, namely the wind being Brazil. And Brazil just engaged China on a massive new long term hussle (100 million vaccines); not to mention its already part of Brics, which Russia helps steer toward China. Western media is already in trying to discredit the vaccine by claiming 50% efficacy while the rollout is nowhere near complete, recall, 100 million jabs, not a few thousand. The usual bleating goes on.

So...meh.

China will not be contained because it can't be contained. Not by the (dis)collective west and certainly not by a coalition of the (un)willing who are more interested in growing trade with China. That leaves a completely polarized US with its usual puppets; Canada, a useless Australia (too dependent on china with no alternatives and too tiny) and an increasingly useless Japan (as japan is too economically dependent on china now and there are no alternatives). Not nearly enough to affect any kind of change in China's trajectory except speed it up, as Trump showed Biden how to do. Americas most valuable companies are about to lose their market share in the biggest tech market. Intel is already defunct in terms of production can get past their shitty 10nm node, SMIC is catching up and taiwans semiconductor manufacturers who rely on Chinese labor and metals can't afford to continue playing Americas game long term, china is driving most new semiconductor demand and Taiwanese companies risk being left out once mainland companies start producing comparable parts in just 5 years and by then chinese consumers will be even more hungry for new chips. A one-two killing blow to any tech corps looking to distance themselves from china.

[Beren]

So Trump sucks, is that why you support(ed) him?

[Igor Antunov]

Decoupling was a meme, so now what?

Trump was a useful idiot. As long as they spring up in the US I will continue cheering them on because they serve to erode US influence abroad. Biden will be another in the long line of useful idiots since Clinton.

[Beren]

Decoupling was a meme, so now what?

Trump was a useful idiot. As long as they spring up in the US I will continue cheering them on because they serve to erode US influence abroad. Biden will be another in the long line of useful idiots since Clinton.

But you'll still miss Trump's special charisma and radiance that could be only compared to that of Putin's, won't you?

[Igor Antunov]

But you'll still miss Trump's special charisma and radiance that could be only compared to that of Putin's, won't you?

It wasn't Trump that was particularly interesting. It was everybody else's reaction to him. This can continue with a literally dementia ridden Biden. Can't wait for the live on air episodes where he forgets where he is.

[Rugoz]

It's shilling in here...


I expected the trade deficit with China to shrink but to grow with other countries. That's what was happening more or less, until Covid messed up things. The trade deficit overall is a consequence of the comparatively low American saving rate and the overvalued dollar.

Not surprised that American consumers have to foot the bill, for the most part.

...Which is actually a lot easier than it sounds. For instance, I can imagine getting India on board with ease.

Politically that is certainly true. India in particular seems to be almost in a cold war with China. Economically it will be difficult for those countries to disentangle themselves from China.

[Beren]

It wasn't Trump that was particularly interesting.

It rather was his dipshit fans with their dipshit memes indeed.

[Atlantis]

South America goes where the wind blows, namely the wind being Brazil. And Brazil just engaged China on a massive new long term hussle (100 million vaccines); not to mention its already part of Brics, which Russia helps steer toward China. Western media is already in trying to discredit the vaccine by claiming 50% efficacy while the rollout is nowhere near complete, recall, 100 million jabs, not a few thousand. The usual bleating goes on.

Wrong. It's the Brazilian regulator that announced that the Chinese vaccine has only 50% efficacy.

With the new British virus we need at least 80% immunity of the population to reach herd immunity. That is impossible with a vaccine with 50% efficacy.

In other words, the Chinese vaccine is junk.

GSK/Sanofi dropped out because their efficacy was too low even though it was almost 80%.

The Chinese can vaccinate into all eternity without protecting their population.

Europe doesn't have to join another ill-advised US war to fight the Chinese. Europe has the innovative force to compete with China.

[JohnRawls]

Full article is extensive: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

Snippet:



Thoughts?

China is not as weak or as strong as some pretend it to be. I know that I am re-using Bismarcks words regarding different country but it still applies for China. The problem of China is the same as it is/was for Russia: They are not built on solid foundations and nobody is really interested in fixing that foundation.

[Rancid]

They are not built on solid foundations and nobody is really interested in fixing that foundation.

How is their foundation not solid?

[Beren]

How is their foundation not solid?

They just haven't solidified it enough in the last 5,000 years, I guess.

[AFAIK]

That'd require convincing these former colonial states that continued centuries of Western exploitation is better than Chinese exploitation.

Not sure why you'd consider this a challenge given that the TPP included several of them.