Alexey Navalny detained on return to Moscow - Page 13 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15151750
JohnRawls wrote:Sadly I feel you are closer to the truth than most might think but I always have trouble admitting this. I am not sure why I can't admit it although I have seen countless examples of why it should be the case. :hmm:


Because revolution brings death, and in Russia case, it would be death of a lot of people close (or used to be close) to you.
#15151753
Beren wrote:Russia has been changing anyway, it's not the same Russia as it was when Putin started, you don't need a revolution for that. You only need a revolution to get rid of Putin, if that's what you want.


Putin is getting old and he will die, and more importantly, he seems to have no second in command or political heir.

Maybe he actually has a "true democracy after his death" in mind, but if he truly believes that after his centralization of power then good luck to him.
#15151837
Heisenberg wrote:Sorry, but the ideology of the revolutionaries matters. A "revolution" led by right-wing nationalists is unlikely to bring about a thriving democracy, to put it mildly.


Why not? You simply have an strong left-wing bias.

B0ycey wrote:Navalny clearly doesn't think he can have much effect outside of Russia than he does inside. But whilst he has his admirers within Europe, people obviously haven't read the memo. Giving Guaido lip service didn't remove Maduro and patching up Navalny and sending him back home won't do much either. Navalny will be tolerated until he becomes a pest and then locked up on some trumped up charge. He simply doesn't have the movement the West wish he had behind him to do anything inside or outside Russia. He should have stayed in Germany.


Oh absolutely. The Russians don't want a revolution. I suspect Putin and his appointed successor will rule for another 2 decades at least.
#15151841
Igor Antunov wrote:Furthermore most of it localized to a single region, Moscow.

It's not just a single region, though, it has a leading role and whatever happens in Moscow has an influence on the whole country. A regime change would most likely kick off there.
#15151844
Patrickov wrote:Putin is getting old and he will die, and more importantly, he seems to have no second in command or political heir.


A guy I work with that grew up in eastern Europe often notes this. There is going to be Chaos when Putin dies because he's not interested in handing the reigns to anyone. He's not interested in any sort of peaceful/orderly transition of power. Basically, its' going to be a power vacuum and his cronies will be fighting over that power. Basically doesn't REALLY care about the future of Russia.

I think the parallels of Trump and Putin are similar in this since. Both do not care about the countries they rule(d) over.
#15151846
Rancid wrote:There is going to be Chaos when Putin dies because he's not interested in handing the reigns to anyone. He's not interested in any sort of peaceful/orderly transition of power.

I believe Putin actually means to transfer his power to Medvedev and that's why he made him Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, which office hadn't even existed before and was established for him specifically. In my opinion the Security Council is the president's administrative body to govern Russia.

Wikipedia wrote:On 16 January 2020, president Vladimir Putin signed a decree that amended the relevant laws and established a new state office of Deputy Chairman of the Security Council. On the same day, president Putin appointed Dmitry Medvedev as Deputy Chairman of the Security Council.
#15151847
There won't be any chaos. Russian foreign policy developed beyond imaginations over the past decade. America's economic blockade of Russia is not that effective anymore. It also makes its economy independent of China.

Russians are all over Arabian peninsula, eastern mediterranean and North Africa. Russian economy is going to be more diversified. Putin lured a major NATO country. He sold Russian weapons inside a NATO country. He is going to sell them to India either.
#15151882
Rancid wrote:Russian exceptionalism, I see.

Maybe you see what you want to see, while others see something else.

Wikipedia wrote:For many Europeans the idea offered a positive alternative to the typical view of Russians as backward, instead depicting the Russian people as an example of the innocence the West had lost.

However, there's definitely something about the Russian people Western people still don't or misunderstand.
#15151955
Sergey Shoygu is the most powerful man in Russia after Putin. He is most likely to take the helm. Medvedev may take on secondary responsibilities.

Russia has plenty of latent great leaders. Membah when great Putin showed up out of nowhere in 1999 and turned Russia into a great power again in just 10 short years? I membah.

This Navalny clown will meet a grisly end soon. Foreign puppets get the rope.
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