Rancid wrote:I was looking back at all my presidential predictions. I got them all wrong except one.
Here's who I called.
2000: Gore (wrong)
2004: Kerry (wrong)
2008: McCain (wrong)
2012: Obama (right)
2016: Clinton (wrong)
2020: Trump (wrong)
Fuck I'm bad at this.
I'm usually pretty good.
2000: Bush (right)
2004: Bush (right)
2008: Obama (right) Didn't vote for either of them.
2012: Obama (right) Voted for Romney though.
2016: Trump (right)
2020: Trump (right if you don't believe phony absentee ballots)
Beren wrote:He most likely is, since he's a complete underdog actually.
He was an underdog in 2016 and 2020. However, that's establishment handicapping, and they don't understand the electorate. See, there is no point to this thread if Trump is going to implode. Instead, Trump gained 12M votes and nobody is denying that, which is why the thread is relevant.
Beren wrote:Or it could also be compared to the rise of a new Christian Rome, in which his pagan ways and manners are not at all welcome anymore.
Well, that's the problem with the entire edifice of political correctness and wokeness--even it's own aren't welcome at some point. Many have rightly characterized political correctness and wokeness as a revolution pushed from the top down. It's not popular at all.
Beren wrote:However, his defeat is still to be made complete.
Betraying the fact that he wasn't defeated at all--he gained 12M votes.
Tainari88 wrote:Trump is going to be toxic for the party and he will not be allowed to run.
He already won the CPAC poll in a rout, like Romney did before the 2012 election. The hope among the establishment is that people look at 1/6 as some sort of shocking event that undermines support for Trump. The CPAC poll should show you that didn't happen at all. Dismissing charges against 2020 BLM/Antifa rioters for felony assaults on police officers while throwing the book at Qanon rioters on 1/6 only shows that the establishment definitely shows both fear and favor and that justice is not blind at all. The harder they try, the more they make it worse. It's like one of those Chinese finger traps.
Tainari88 wrote:Trump is going to open up a Fox style news agency of alternative facts and be undermined and trashed by people like Zuckerberg.
That remains to be seen. I think Trump does need to pivot away from the major social media outlets if he wants to get his message out.
Tainari88 wrote:He will die of some bad diet consequences but a much more sophisticated version of Trump like pendejo racist but with a Bush style compassionate conservative speech but really loving white nationalism behind closed doors will give the Democrats a run for their money
He's 74. That hasn't done him in yet. Everyone approaching that age is largely on borrowed time statistically speaking--yet, he's pretty spry for his age.
Tainari88 wrote:I predict a hard leftist for the win in 2032.
Dynamics change rapidly in that time frame. In 2000, everyone was deathly afraid of Y2K, which turned out to be nothing. Nine months later, everything changed. Few people saw it coming. There are some major demographic shifts on the horizon which you can incorporate into your analysis. I listen to people like Peter Zeihan, but I don't always agree. He thinks capital becomes really expensive in three years. We shall see. It didn't work that way in Japan. There economy became more advanced, while GDP growth stagnated and interest rates were low to negative.
Tainari88 wrote:Game over for the USA for the establishment moderate middle by 2032.
They are in trouble, no doubt. This whole Biden thing is turning into a disaster for them, because they didn't expect Trump would actually get 12M more votes given all the scandals they manufactured and the relentless negative press--hence, threads like this to begin with. However, people wicked enough to do that and then push HR1 with 20k troops, fencing and razor wire around the Capitol aren't to be underestimated. Desperate people do desperate things whether they are Qanon rioters or establishment pols stuffing ballot boxes.
Tainari88 wrote:But the problem is going to be the USA will be economically in shambles by then and the PRC and the rest of the Asians will be 80% in the finish line for being global drivers and powerhouses along with a consolidated EU and a reinvigorated unaligned group on the path to recovery.
I think we're in for a bumpy ride, and probably a wave of 1970s style inflation at some point. However, I've been wrong on that so far as we've been trying to counter deflation since 2000, but blew a housing bubble and a oil price bubble in the mid-2000s as a result. Quantitative easing isn't the same as foreign-held debt. Right now, basically holding dollars means you get a hair cut, but dumping dollars for countries that export to the US means getting beheaded. It's a no-win situation for them.
Asia cannot lead a consumption-led economic recovery, because it has a declining population which will become even more obvious by 2032. The EU also has an aging populace, but not quite as dire as China for example. If you have a 1 child policy and it takes 2.1 live births per couple to keep your population stable, you'll see a dramatic drop in China's population, as we're already seeing a drop in the working age population. With a 1-child policy, pretty soon you run out of 25 year olds. Look at what has happened in Japan since 1989 for example.
Maybe WalMart will re-open in San Francisco, but everything will be sold out of vending machines like in Japan. That counters both the $15 an hour problem, and the fact that San Francisco will not prosecute shoplifting.
Tainari88 wrote:The 21st century is going to be the PRC and the rest of Asia, Even a united Korea by the end of the 21st century.
I'm very skeptical of your PRC call. At work, I get a PC refresh every three years. I was due in August. Where's my new Lenovo with 32GB of RAM and 512GB flash drive? I'll give you a little hint--the business grade laptops are made in Wuhan, China. The PRC isn't going to make me wait 6 months for a high end computer if they don't HAVE TO. That's a fat margin purchase compared to their consumer equivalents. You are not getting the straight story from China.
China boosts their GDP numbers with heavy construction--building cities that nobody lives in. Think of them as something more haunting than shiny new Detroits, where there are ghost neighborhoods and districts. China is on the precipice of a designed population collapse. It simply cannot grow GDP through consumption. It has to export.
So if Asia can keep output high, maybe we don't get that big bout of inflation in CPI. However, I'd be looking at holding some leverageable assets.
Patrickov wrote:If annihilation is necessary, I'd say doing it on unrepentant Trump supporters is far more effective than doing it on Trump himself.
Effective means you succeed. 74M heavily armed Trump supporters would not take that without a fight, and the establishment doesn't have the appetite for that kind of bloodshed. Hell, they're prosecuting "armed" 18-year olds that had nothing more than a baton and didn't hit or hurt anyone, while lining the Capitol with 20k troops, fencing and razor wire. People are calling the Capitol "Fort Pelosi." The establishment is visibly scared, and if anyone so much as dared to do what you're calling for, it's the establishment that would pay with their lives, not Trump supporters. You'd have a Civil War that made the 19th Century one look like cock fight.
Patrickov wrote:Some people here hate Trump so much that they fail to notice he's merely someone enabled by a wider sentiment.
Yes, but they're deathly afraid of wags who put their feet up on Pelosi's desk, or moved a dais, or wear horned headdresses. It's the people jimjam derides that you have to be afraid of. There are more guns than people in the US. It's frankly crazy to think that they will just let themselves be mowed down.
late wrote:The answer is do nothing...
Every now and then, you come up with the right answer.
late wrote:I doubt it, Murkowski should be able to weather the storm, and (perversely) an internal fight is likely to damage him more than his many failures outside the party.
Yes, but it does nothing to address what led to Trump in the first place, and Biden is going back to that in spades. That might make the establishment happy, but the rank and file already has a dim view of it.
late wrote:And as long as he is attacking other Republicans, he's not attacking the country. Which would be good.
He's attacking three senators and maybe 11 house members. That's not a big deal in the scheme of things.
Potemkin wrote:As I have been saying since 2016, Donald Trump is not important. He's a cipher, and not even a very good cipher at that - his personality defects tend to repel even his most ardent supporters.
Yes, but it doesn't start and stop in the United States.
Potemkin wrote:No, it is the social, economic and political forces which currently prevail in the US right now which have given rise to the groundswell of resentment and alienation from the existing political system.
Yes, but that's the case in Europe as well. The US establishment went full on materialist after the Soviet Union fell, and seemed to think that the government simply giving people stuff made in China would keep the masses happy. We already know that doesn't work in mice or rhesus monkeys--without agency and socialization, they become self destructive. Yet, the establishment hands out its "gifts" with contempt for the people they are supposedly helping. I frankly don't see how that can last. Biden abandoning the State of the Union, not giving any press conferences (the only newly inaugurated president in 100 years to not do so within thirty days or so), and the optics of Fort Pelosi do not support even a figment of visage of popular government.
Potemkin wrote:But even annihilating his supporters wouldn't make the problem go away either - the same social, economic and political environment would just produce more resentful and alienated people who would find another would-be Fuehrer to rally behind. We need to change the system.
Perhaps, but people are not clamoring for socialism. They want civic nationalism and social stability for the working classes, which is precisely undermined by outsourcing manufacturing and driving down wages with immigration--illegal or otherwise. The working class Trump supporters are quite right in sensing the elite's contempt for them. It's not even veiled at this point.
Godstud wrote::lol: You're such a whiney little girl, BJ! You can't even take a joke without getting your panties in a bunch.
Perhaps it's funny from all the way over in Thailand. When's the last time you saw a military garrison at Capitol Hill? By the way, I find it interesting that you use use females as a means to denigrate men. You do that with homosexuals too. It says a lot about you.
"We have put together the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics."
-- Joe Biden