[Scamp]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ent-crisis
"Trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery, appear to be streaming toward the country's borders with Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the scale of these movements is so significant that it has, to the dismay of Russian farmers, disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season. U.S. officials are now worried that a new major round of fighting between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent as a ceasefire is at risk of expiring tomorrow."

[ingliz]

large amounts of Russian military hardware

The US has sent $1.75 billion in weapons to Ukraine.

[Juin]

The US has sent $1.75 billion in weapons to Ukraine.

For real? That should make for a lively summer in the Donbass.

Putin. Putin is a fellow to watch carefully. It is noteworthy that, unlike Russian leaders of the past, he does not drink. Sober, taciturn fellows are to be watched carefully. I will say Putin plays his hand carefully. There was a lull of sorts these last four years of Trump. But that may be over. There is a new cast of characters in DC, which calls for a change in plans.

I have read my leaves and they tell me the Donbass is bestirring itself after a long slumber.

Biden has called Kiev's chief and assured him of Washington's unwavering support. And with a war chest from the $1.75billion dollars I do not see what stops Ukraine from baiting the bear. Biden will have to do something. How can he not do something? Democrats will not allow him to let evil Putin get away with it.

Was it Barbara Tuchman who spoke of "March of Folly"?

[Suchard]

For real? That should make for a lively summer in the Donbass.

Putin. Putin is a fellow to watch carefully. It is noteworthy that, unlike Russian leaders of the past, he does not drink. Sober, taciturn fellows are to be watched carefully. I will say Putin plays his hand carefully. There was a lull of sorts these last four years of Trump. But that may be over. There is a new cast of characters in DC, which calls for a change in plans.

I have read my leaves and they tell me the Donbass is bestirring itself after a long slumber.

Biden has called Kiev's chief and assured him of Washington's unwavering support. And with a war chest from the $1.75billion dollars I do not see what stops Ukraine from baiting the bear. Biden will have to do something. How can he not do something? Democrats will not allow him to let evil Putin get away with it.

Was it Barbara Tuchman who spoke of "March of Folly"?

Putin believes that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a disaster and he particularly wants Ukraine back under the Russian boot. In any military conflict, Russia cannot be beaten and since Ukraine is not in any formal alliance with the West, it is in the Russian crosshairs and the finger is on a hair trigger. Ukraine might as well surrender or make a move to be protected by the Americans. Even if Ukraine were to seek and get membership of the European Union, since this is not a millitary alliance as such, that will be no good.

[JohnRawls]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40016/russian-armor-floods-toward-border-with-ukraine-amid-fears-of-an-imminent-crisis
"Trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery, appear to be streaming toward the country's borders with Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the scale of these movements is so significant that it has, to the dismay of Russian farmers, disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season. U.S. officials are now worried that a new major round of fighting between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent as a ceasefire is at risk of expiring tomorrow."

Putin is loosing popularity so he needs PR moves and shows of force. His opposition are gaining popularity even due to the fact that Putin arrested most of them or already sent them to the Gulag of sorts. Doesn't work that well in this day and age. His time is ticking. Tick.. Tock.. Tick.. Tock..

[Beren]

And with a war chest from the $1.75billion dollars I do not see what stops Ukraine from baiting the bear.

I really wonder if how much that $1.75 billion improved the Ukrainian military, compared to that of Russia's especially, or it was like pouring billions of dollars into the Saudi military with no result whatsoever. I mean they even failed to deal with Yemen effectively, or we can also remember how meaningless the massive Georgian military build-up proved to be in 2008, so it wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine still couldn't resolve the Donbass Crisis by military means.

[ThirdTerm]

Russia’s Investigative Committee has said it will look into reports that Ukraine violated the ceasefire in the Donetsk People’s Republic, after a five-year-old boy was killed by the Ukrainian army. According to reports, Ukraine has been sending tanks, artillery and drones to the Donbass since early March. It looks like Ukraine is about to take military action against the DPR and Russia is obliged to protect the semi-autonomous republic. If the Ukrainian armed forces launch an operation against the DPR, Russia could enter the conflict to support the DPR. Russia cannot abandon the Donbass, because if it does not intervene in this situation, Crimea may become the next target. Russia is sending a clear message to Ukraine and the West that Moscow does not intend to return the Donbass or Crimea to Kiev.

[Politics_Observer]

@ThirdTerm

If I was the Ukrainians I would launch a complete and total surprise night time attack on the Russians and retake by force territory that rightfully belongs to them (territory that rightfully belongs to the Ukrainians that the Russians took from them). It needs to be a massive, complete and total surprise attack launched in the middle of the night. The element of surprise and a night time attack is a big force multiplier. The Ukrainians need to make sure they catch the Russians completely and totally by surprise to where they never suspected an attack was coming.

It doesn't sound like the Ukrainians have achieved surprise if the Russians are aware of a possible attack. If the Russians are aware an attack is coming, then any Ukrainian attack is likely to fail. Personally, if I were the Russians, if they want to keep that territory they stole from the Ukrainians, I would NEVER let my guard down EVER. If the Ukrainians care about their country, as soon as the Russians let their guard down, I would be taking advantage with a surprise night time attack. If the Ukrainians want to be free they are going to have to be willing to take risks and fight for it.

[Politics_Observer]

Ukrainians if they ever decide to attack to reclaim their land, another good idea is to dress up like the Russian defenders who are defending the land they took from the Ukrainians. They would need to make sure their something small about their dress that would enable only fellow Ukrainian soldiers to identify them during the attack. That would certainly create confusion for the Russian defenders of who is the attacker and who is one of their fellow defenders. All warfare is based upon deception. In addition to surprise some of the Russian defenders might very well end up engaging their own fellow defenders thinking they are Ukrainian attackers given it will be more difficult to tell them apart during a night time attack.

[Godstud]

Another American proxy war in the making?

[Politics_Observer]

@Godstud

Another favorite trick is the flagpole bomb. If the Ukrainians have to retreat, leave behind their flags flying high and proudly. So, when Russian soldiers re-occupy the land and go to take down the Ukrainian flags, they are met with a very unpleasant surprise when they grab the rope to take down the Ukrainian flag. It's also very easy to rig up a booby trap on building doors to leave behind for enemy forces.

[noemon]

Another American proxy war in the making?

Funny way of blaming the US for the Russian invasion of the Ukraine to prevent it from signing a trade agreement with the EU.

What "making"? Russia already invaded the Ukraine.

7% of Ukraine's territory is under occupation by Russia and the war has been ongoing since 2014:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War

[Juin]

Putin believes that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a disaster and he particularly wants Ukraine back under the Russian boot. In any military conflict, Russia cannot be beaten and since Ukraine is not in any formal alliance with the West, it is in the Russian crosshairs and the finger is on a hair trigger. Ukraine might as well surrender or make a move to be protected by the Americans. Even if Ukraine were to seek and get membership of the European Union, since this is not a millitary alliance as such, that will be no good.

From the perspective of the Kremlin- Czarist, Bolshevik, or post communist- it is undeniable that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a disaster. In that sense Putin's observation was more a statement of fact than an opinion. It was astounding. A massive colossus just went puff. I can imagine the stern Putin pacing the halls of the Kremlin muttering darkly, "I get it, communism had to go, but did every gain Mother Russia had made have to go along with it?"

Worse it was not just that the Soviet Union went puff; a rival military/economic alliance- which before the collapse was thousands of miles away in Germany- crept up all the way to Poland and the Baltics. As if that was not enough to choke the Russian bear, same military economic alliance, under the guise of a folder called MAP Membership Action Plan, was now knocking at the doors of Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan!

That would have left just rump Russia. But would that have been enough? Even rump Russia is still a nation with non-Russian nationalities, Chechnyans and Dagestanis coming to mind. All ocassionally showing indications of a willingness to bolt if given the opportunity. Can Putin be faulted if his estimation is that after the rival military alliance had rolled up Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, would they not knock on the doors of Chechnya and Dagestan offering membership?

So Putin is not mad. Of if he is mad, there is a method to the madness.

That leaves Ukraine in a hell of a fix.

Personally, I think Ukraine is one nation too far. The eastward sweep of Nato was opportunistic and possible as long as Russia was comatose in the hands of the naive Gorbachev and the drunk Yeltsin. But at some point the Russian bear was bound to bestir itself.

[Juin]

I really wonder if how much that $1.75 billion improved the Ukrainian military, compared to that of Russia's especially, or it was like pouring billions of dollars into the Saudi military with no result whatsoever. I mean they even failed to deal with Yemen effectively, or we can also remember how meaningless the massive Georgian military build-up proved to be in 2008, so it wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine still couldn't resolve the Donbass Crisis by military means.

With the corruption rampant in the Ukraine it is unlikely the $1.75billions translated into brute force. Who knows who got contracts for what arms, whether it was arms really needed or just what could line some oligarch's pockets better, or whether the acquisitions made for a well integrated force. Your Saudi example is apt. At least the Saudis had always been clear that to them arms purchases is diplomacy by arms purchase. It is not so much that the Saudis need a particular weapons system, as that the purchase gets them a powerful ally. One Saudi pointed out- as there was uproar over some arms they wanted from the US- that it was not so much that they couldnt get same thing elsewhere but that getting it from the US tightens their alliance.

It was astonishing that the 'vilis somehow deluded themselves that they could bait the Russian bear in the expectation that the west would pull them out of the pickle. It was a mistake. Georgia too is one nation too far.

'vilis? Well everyone in that nation is a 'vili. One of them the notiorious and infamous Losif Vissarionovich Jugashvili, aka Stalin. The President is a vili, Salome Zurabishvili. The Prime Minister is a vili, Irakli Garibashvili. And there is another vili I am sure Putin will like to lay his hands on: a Mikhail Saakashvili; third President of Georgia; he bolted to Ukraine sometime after he unsuccessfully baited the bear.

[Juin]

Russia’s Investigative Committee has said it will look into reports that Ukraine violated the ceasefire in the Donetsk People’s Republic, after a five-year-old boy was killed by the Ukrainian army. According to reports, Ukraine has been sending tanks, artillery and drones to the Donbass since early March. It looks like Ukraine is about to take military action against the DPR and Russia is obliged to protect the semi-autonomous republic. If the Ukrainian armed forces launch an operation against the DPR, Russia could enter the conflict to support the DPR. Russia cannot abandon the Donbass, because if it does not intervene in this situation, Crimea may become the next target. Russia is sending a clear message to Ukraine and the West that Moscow does not intend to return the Donbass or Crimea to Kiev.

Not just Crimea. There is Dagestan, Chechnya, Tartastan that may also come into play if the Russian bear is lax over poachers in its near abroad.

It would be interesting to peer deep inside Putin's soul to see what he really thinks of his predecessors Gobarchev and Yeltsin. Keep in mind that it is the man Putin's estimation that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a geo strategic disaster. And that was under the naive Gorbachev and the drunk Yeltsin. The western military alliance crept thousands of miles eastwards, without firing a shot, from Germany to the Baltics! And was eyeing Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan to peacefully pry off the grabbing fist of Kremlin

[Juin]

@ThirdTerm

If I was the Ukrainians I would launch a complete and total surprise night time attack on the Russians and retake by force territory that rightfully belongs to them (territory that rightfully belongs to the Ukrainians that the Russians took from them). It needs to be a massive, complete and total surprise attack launched in the middle of the night. The element of surprise and a night time attack is a big force multiplier. The Ukrainians need to make sure they catch the Russians completely and totally by surprise to where they never suspected an attack was coming.

It doesn't sound like the Ukrainians have achieved surprise if the Russians are aware of a possible attack. If the Russians are aware an attack is coming, then any Ukrainian attack is likely to fail. Personally, if I were the Russians, if they want to keep that territory they stole from the Ukrainians, I would NEVER let my guard down EVER. If the Ukrainians care about their country, as soon as the Russians let their guard down, I would be taking advantage with a surprise night time attack. If the Ukrainians want to be free they are going to have to be willing to take risks and fight for it.

That would be straight from the Franjo Tudjman playbook. When Croatian forces in a blitz overran the so called Republic of Serbian Krajina. A situation not unlike that in the Donbass. A Croatian Republic reclaiming a Serbian populated breakaway repbulic populated by Serbs. Only problem is Putin's Russia is not the Serbia of Clinton days. Serbia had allies in the Russia of the drunk Yeltsin, but that Russia was broke and incapable of effective force projection in far off Balkans. Croatia had some fine, well heeled friends in the Germans and Americans. And during the lull in the fighting was able to build an effective force that was capable of the blitz that restored Croatian control over the entirety of territory it claimed.

Putin is not a drunk. And that is a problem for Ukriane. And Ukraine always had a problem from the beginning when there was irresponsible talk about a Ukrainian blitz to evict Putin from Crimea. Russia had a heavy force massed on Ukraine's left shoulder. All expectations, or the irresponsible trash talk was that Ukrainian formations should just head south to come to grips with Putin's men in Crimea. But how to do that if Putin has a massive force looking west towards the Ukrainian formations about to turn south? At least wisdom prevailed in Kiev. It was clear the best way to liberate Crimea was by attacking the Russian force sitting to the east of Ukraine. But that would have meant attacking Russia itself.

I am not sure how Donbass or Crimea rightfully belongs to Ukraine anymore than Ukraine rightfully belonged to Russia. If Russia had no right to Ukraine, by I imagine a certain logic; does that same logic not also question the rightful ownership by Ukraine of Donbass and Ukraine?

I dont like Ukraine's situation. It is too close to an awake and vigilant Russia; and too far from the US. Old Europe, to borrow from that eloquent Defense Secretary; the Europe of France and Germany, are not as hot as the Poles and Baltic states when it comes to poaching in Russia's near abroad.

[Juin]

Ukrainians if they ever decide to attack to reclaim their land, another good idea is to dress up like the Russian defenders who are defending the land they took from the Ukrainians. They would need to make sure their something small about their dress that would enable only fellow Ukrainian soldiers to identify them during the attack. That would certainly create confusion for the Russian defenders of who is the attacker and who is one of their fellow defenders. All warfare is based upon deception. In addition to surprise some of the Russian defenders might very well end up engaging their own fellow defenders thinking they are Ukrainian attackers given it will be more difficult to tell them apart during a night time attack.

Do the rules of war not allow for shooting out of hand combattants who dress up in the uniforms of the opposite side?

I believe what you suggest will work for a limited operation. I do not see how that will work if it entails dressing up thousands of soldiers in Russian uniforms. How do you keep something like that a secret?

And what is the composition of the Ukrainian Army? Just ethnic Ukrainians? Cause the ethnic Russian composition of Ukraine is not negligible. Kiev, Odessa, Kharkiv, Mariopol etc have significant ethnic Russian populations, and those are still cities in Ukraine proper.

[Juin]

Another American proxy war in the making?

That is what it looks like. That is if it gets to a full blown war. But I doubt it will. I am not sure the likes of France, Germany, Italy care that much for pushing Nato further east towards Moscow. The US can go it alone, but it looks like an undertaking fraught with perils.

Putin leaves the impression he is scared of indigestion. He only nibbles bits and pieces. Putin had what it takes to gobble up Georgia, or gobble up so much of little Georgia as to render the rump dependent on Moscow. Yet Putin only nibbled a bit. When Putin blitzed on Ukraine the Ukrainians were unbalanced enough for Putin to have grabbed the water sources in Ukraine sorely needed by Crimea; he could have pushed to the outskirts of Kharkiv and enveloped, if not taken Mariopol, but he didnt. A strange fellow this Putin

[Godstud]

Putin may be a dictator(without question), but he's not stupid. The Crimea was easily done. I agree with you, @Juin. This might be some posturing on his part, too.

[Juin]

Putin may be a dictator(without question), but he's not stupid. The Crimea was easily done. I agree with you, @Juin. This might be some posturing on his part, too.

I totally agree. Putin may be a dictator, but he is definitely far from stupid. So far he has played his hands carefully. If one were to ask me if Putin is more like Bismark or Hitler, I will say he definitely is more like Bismark