Russian armor heading towards border with Ukraine - Page 13 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15166754
A democratic Russia would very likely be much different than this thing it currently is.

Russia has no need to expand, she needs to consolidate and develop her economy. She is already the largest nation on earth, she has a respectable population and vast resources.

A democratic Russia friendly to Europe can thrive.
#15166756
@noemon

That's what I think. And who knows, if Russian were to develop it's economy, establish the rule of law and have a genuine democracy governed by the rule of law, they might be the most powerful country in the world given it's vast resources. Russia and the United States don't need to be enemies. I think Putin has created a big trust deficit with his past actions. Plus, democracy and the Russian economy have to deliver prosperity to the Russian people. If the economy and democracy cannot establish the rule of law and bring prosperity to average Russians, then dictators like Putin will be appealing to them. The Russians went through quite an ordeal economically in the 1990s. This is the sort of thing that allow for somebody like Putin to rise to power. That and an un-educated population (Russians are not un-educated, but democracy requires a well educated population, I think the U.S. falls short here sometimes).
#15166760
Politics_Observer wrote:@noemon

I believe Putin will invade a NATO country if it is left open for easy taking. It's the nature of dictators who only care about power. Putin only stops when he sees a clear boundary that can actually be enforced.




Can Putin not equally make the same claim? Was Ukraine not easy picking for Nato if Putin did nothing? And did Nato not pause in its Ukraine acquisition path specifically because Putin was able to credibly telegraph to Nato that Ukraine wont be easy pickings?
#15166763
Politics_Observer wrote:@ingliz @Tainari88

Putin is a former KGB agent, so I think he is using some old KGB trick of threaten action, keep options open and your adversaries off balance, and exploit opportunities that may arise. I think the U.S. should stand firm with it's support for Ukraine. However, that also means sending additional military aid to the Ukrainians. My take from the American perspective. Also, preposition more U.S. troops in the Baltic NATO member states to ensure the security of those NATO states so that NATO is ready for any contingency in the event the Russians attempt to launch a surprise attack on those NATO member states. That way NATO isn't caught off balance if Putin were to suddenly decide to attack a NATO member state. Plus, it's more likely to deter an attack on those NATO member states while raising the costs on Moscow from a military perspective if they decide to send troops into Ukraine.




It will seem to me like, if one goes by your take, then the White House faces a moment of truth and has to address some tough questions:

Is the Ukraine already a de facto Nato member? Other Nato members may wanna know, since the Nato cheif Jens Stoltenberg appears in his statement to suggest a possible Nato commitment to Ukraine. [I have to interpret unwavering support as a commitment].

If Ukraine is not a de facto Nato member, at the very least Joe's unwavering support suggests it is a de facto US ally. Does the US want to fight a war in Ukraine?
#15166766
@Juin

I don't think Ukraine should at this point in time become a member of NATO. I wouldn't want to risk antagonizing Russia. I do think it is important for Biden and Putin to hold a summit as it is always better when countries talk to each other instead of fight each other. Russia is accusing the U.S. of bringing troops to other NATO states close to their border. If this is true, then I would have to change my grade of Biden's response and give him a pass grade so long as those troop positioning are purely to defend against a Russian attack and are prepared. I do know for sure, according to news reports, that we have sent more troops to Germany which would enable them to quickly get to our East European NATO allies. I also think it is important to give Putin a face saving off ramp so he can de-escalate without losing face. That way it diffuses the mess and brings more calm to the situation without any bloodshed.
#15166804
Politics_Observer wrote:@Juin

I don't think Ukraine should at this point in time become a member of NATO. I wouldn't want to risk antagonizing Russia. I do think it is important for Biden and Putin to hold a summit as it is always better when countries talk to each other instead of fight each other. Russia is accusing the U.S. of bringing troops to other NATO states close to their border. If this is true, then I would have to change my grade of Biden's response and give him a pass grade so long as those troop positioning are purely to defend against a Russian attack and are prepared. I do know for sure, according to news reports, that we have sent more troops to Germany which would enable them to quickly get to our East European NATO allies. I also think it is important to give Putin a face saving off ramp so he can de-escalate without losing face. That way it diffuses the mess and brings more calm to the situation without any bloodshed.




I agree. They should hold a summit. The present situation is dangerous for both sides because paramilitaries on the ground are always hard to control. There is always a limit as to how much control one has over proxies. Just the mere massing of Russian forces off Donbass can prompt ethnic Russian paramilitaries to get aggressive, with or without orders from Moscow, or even in spite of orders to the contrary from Moscow. Equally, Kiev faces same limitations when it comes to control over its own ethnic Ukrainian fascist paramilitaries.* If they also believe sparking a clash could drag western powers into the conflict, they will do so in a heartbeat.


*It is not just evil Russians. Ethnic Ukrainian paramilitaries range from mild to outright fascists and nationalists. And Ukraine has a long history of that. The Waffen SS Division Wiking recruited heavily amongst Ukrainians! Parades are still held in some western Ukrainian cities today
#15166819
@Juin

Amen to that brother, we don't need a bunch of people getting killed on all sides. The NATO alliance should only fight when attacked by Russia because of it's treaty obligations and support Ukraine's right to be independent and it's territorial integrity. However, that doesn't mean we bring Ukraine into NATO if it will antagonize the Russians. I am not interested in antagonizing the Russians. Outside of that, to prevent a war, it's important to talk with the Russians and try to work with them so that any conflict or war is prevented. Too many good people on all sides depend on maintaining the peace. But you can't be weak when dealing with Putin either. Putin is somebody who will certainly take advantage of that.
#15166822
Politics_Observer wrote:@Juin

Amen to that brother, we don't need a bunch of people getting killed on all sides. The NATO alliance should only fight when attacked by Russia because of it's treaty obligations and support Ukraine's right to be independent and it's territorial integrity. However, that doesn't mean we bring Ukraine into NATO if it will antagonize the Russians. I am not interested in antagonizing the Russians. Outside of that, to prevent a war, it's important to talk with the Russians and try to work with them so that any conflict or war is prevented. Too many good people on all sides depend on maintaining the peace. But you can't be weak when dealing with Putin either.

You know what would be nice? Bringing Russia into NATO and just trading with them. I have no idea why that's so hard. Putin has an ego thing, he can't admit weakness or defeat. NATO is bad blah blah, old Soviet bullshit. He's still fighting the Cold War. Let it go bro.
#15166823
@Unthinking Majority

Yes, I would love to trade with the Russians. Most Russians I have met here stateside are good people and just like most of us. They just have some serious problems over there since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Russian people went through some serious shit in the 1990s that helped to lead to the rise of Putin. It is something that can happen in any country. But when you are dealing with that kind of armor massed on Ukraine's border and a country with nuclear weapons, shit gets serious pretty quick. Russia is not a joke and not a country I would want to fight, that's for sure. But, you have to be prepared to fight as part of deterrence and keeping the peace. I think Putin is smart but also a bit narcissistic too which can be dangerous.
#15166824
@Unthinking Majority

How I met Russians in Atlanta is some of them hired me when I ran my own business. They were immigrants who left the former Soviet Union. Some of the ones I met were successful software developers and computer professionals.
#15166825
noemon wrote:A democratic Russia would very likely be much different than this thing it currently it.

Russia has no need to expand, she needs to consolidate and develop her economy. She is already the largest nation on earth, she has a respectable population and vast resources.

A democratic Russia friendly to Europe can thrive.

Putin just wants to swing his dick. He's an arrogant power-monger like Trump. You ever met a domineering dog that just jumps up on your lap any chance it can so it can dominate you and feel powerful? That's him.

The joke is nobody has any problem with Russia. Europe and everyone else just wants to trade with them. Nobody gives a shit about Russia, just be normal. It's not like anyone in NATO wants to invade Russia. Nobody gives a shit. Putin is just obsessed with returning Russia to former glory including former "Russian" states and provoking everyone. Who cares??? Does he seriously think NATO is going to let Putin annex all these places? He's an idiot. Guy has "abusive husband" written all over him.
#15166840
Unthinking Majority wrote:Nobody gives a shit about Russia

To be honest, who gives a shit about Ukraine?

noemon wrote:Russia is not justified

And all this bleating about justification and illegality. Legality is used and abused or ignored by the great powers as suits.

@noemon says the invasion is not justified.

Hard cheese, Russia obviously thought it was.

Now, I can understand why @noemon might want to use Ukraine as a cipher for Greece. Being pushed around isn't much fun, and his posts have largely been ignored on that topic. But in Greece or Ukraine, the big boys are going to do what big boys do whether he likes it or not.
#15166868
@ingliz

The big boys have gotten whipped a few times by the smaller boys throughout history when the big boys started to let the fact they were one of the big boys go to their head. Just because you are one of the big boys on the block doesn't mean you are 10 feet tall either.
#15166872
Politics_Observer wrote:The big boys have gotten whipped a few times by the smaller boys

Vietnam?

Dead or presumed dead.

US dead or missing : 58,200 (US government tally)

South Vietnamese soldiers : Between 200,000 and 250,000 (US military estimate)

North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters : 1.1 million (Vietnamese Government tally)

Civilians : 2 million on both sides (Vietnamese Government estimate)
#15166875
@ingliz

I am not going to get into a comparison of defeats between the two sides. The United States and Russia has suffered it's set of failures and defeats. That's not the point. It's important for both powers to remain humble and to take into consideration the smaller boys too. That being said, sometimes you lose and sometimes you win in life. And failure is part of life, you just have to learn from your failures and keep going. When you do that, eventually, you will start winning again.
#15166879
@ingliz

You also can't let defeats or failures define who you are. You just learn from them and keep going. It sucks to lose, but at the end of the day, losing is part of life at times. You can't just let it define you. For example, one of my fellow students is a perfectionist and I think he let's a grade define him too much. If I fail a class, I just shake it off, learn from it and retake the class again. But I don't let it bother me too much or define me.
#15166880
@Politics_Observer

Assuming a similar level of destruction, 3 million Ukrainian dead to maintain the status quo ante is a 'must do better' life lesson?

And unlike Vietnam, they won't retake the Donbas or Crimea no matter how many times they try.

So how much Ukrainian blood will satisfy you?


:lol:
#15166882
@ingliz

That's Russia's choice, not the United State's choice. Russia is the one with all that armor and troops massed at Ukraine's border, not the United States. I think the question more accurately would be, not just how much Ukrainian blood will satisfy the Russians but how much of their own blood and treasure they are willing to lose in the process. It's not the United States that is deciding whether to fight or not. It's the Russians. And as the old Sun Tzu cliche goes, "he who wishes to fight must first count the cost." So how much is Russia willing to pay? Bear in mind, if Russia goes into Ukraine, they are giving the U.S. an opportunity to possibly protract out the Ukrainian conflict which could prove very costly to Russia if it sends it's troops into Ukraine. Don't think it will be cost free to Russia. It won't be the United States that pays any cost in blood if the Russians go into Ukraine, but it will be Russians and Ukrainians who pay the price.
#15166886
Politics_Observer wrote:It won't be the United States that pays any cost in blood if the Russians go into Ukraine, but it will be Russians and Ukrainians who pay the price.

So it's win-win for the US, right @Politics_Observer? :)
#15166887
@Potemkin

I wouldn't call it a win win as nobody really "wins" in situations like this. But at the end of the day, the U.S. has to take into account it's commitments to NATO and it's security interests as well. The US is not the only country making choices here Potemkin. You haven't really seemed to concerned about Ukraine's territorial integrity but you do seem to be giving Russia a free pass. Do you think it's acceptable for Russia to violate the territorial integrity of Ukraine when no threat was posed to the Russians?
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