Election 2024 Thread - Page 3 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By Drlee
#15160151
Trump will go down in history as the president who needlessly killed a half a million Americans. And he did.

Biden may not run again. Harris might run. Then again, she might not.

I am not betting that there will be a presidential election in 2024 in any form we would recognize now.
By Doug64
#15160214
Drlee wrote:Trump will go down in history as the president who needlessly killed a half a million Americans. And he did.

Right, because we don't have fifty governors and state legislatures, and Democrats condemning Trump's early moves as xenophobic racism. No one's ever pointed out to me where in the beginning Trump ignored the recommendations of the "experts."
By late
#15160289
Doug64 wrote:
Right, because we don't have fifty governors and state legislatures, and Democrats condemning Trump's early moves as xenophobic racism. No one's ever pointed out to me where in the beginning Trump ignored the recommendations of the "experts."



He was too busy firing them, and installing hacks and crooks.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15160349
Nope Doug. As much as you worship Trump in word and deed you can't get him off of this rap. He is guilty as sin. The fact that others did not have the courage to stand up to him anymore than you do has nothing to do with it. If he had exercised any presidential leadership at all and refrained from lying hundreds of thousands of people would be alive.

But you save your money and give it to him. He is asking you for it right now Doug. Then come back again and tell us how you don't like him and won't vote for him. The only thing you need if you meet Trump is a set of knee pads.
#15160446
Pants-of-dog wrote:If we are making predictions:

Trump will say he will run again in order to fleece rubes. He will probably end up believing it. He will be unable to because of legal and/or medical problems.


Agreed

An even worse grifter and liar will come along and take over what Trump has built.


Quite possibly. S/he would be able to tweet this but likely won't have President Trump's charisma. The one electable alternative is Nikki Haley, I think.

The Democrats will continue to be spineless invaders with progressive branding.


Possibly. He may come out as the second Franklin D. Roosevelt. We'll see
User avatar
By jimjam
#15160448
Doug64 wrote: No one's ever pointed out to me where in the beginning Trump ignored the recommendations of the "experts."



“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”, Fat Donald , 1/22/20.

Leadership at it's best :lol: And, then, Fatso himself gets covid and almost dies :eek: .
By Doug64
#15160484
jimjam wrote:“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”, Fat Donald , 1/22/20.

Ah, right, the statement the same day WHO finally admitted that person-to-person transmission was possible (after significant delay thanks choosing to go along with the CCP's suppression of information), six days before WHO declared a global emergency, eleven days before the first fatality outside of China, twenty-one days before de Blasio encouraged everyone to patronize New York City's Chinatown during the Chinese New Year, thirty-three days before Pelosi did the same in San Francisco, thirty-eight days before Fauci said that no one currently needed to make any changes to their day-to-day lives, forty-seven days before Fauci said that campaign rallies in places without community spread were fine. And of course, at the same time Trump said that the Democrats were ignoring the CCP's "gift" to the world in favor of their farcical impeachment crusade.

But getting back to the point of this thread, as evidence of the Democratic Party's own civil war:

Entire Staff of Nevada Democratic Party Quits After Democratic Socialist Slate Won Every Seat
Not long after Judith Whitmer won her election on Saturday to become chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, she got an email from the party’s executive director, Alana Mounce. The message from Mounce began with a note of congratulations, before getting to her main point.

She was quitting. So was every other employee. And so were all the consultants. And the staff would be taking severance checks with them, thank you very much.

On March 6, a coalition of progressive candidates backed by the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America took over the leadership of the Nevada Democratic Party, sweeping all five party leadership positions in a contested election that evening. Whitmer, who had been chair of the Clark County Democratic Party, was elected chair. The establishment had prepared for the loss, having recently moved $450,000 out of the party’s coffers and into the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s account. The DSCC will put the money toward the 2022 reelection bid of Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, a vulnerable first-term Democrat.

While Whitmer’s opponents say she was planning to fire them anyway, Whitmer denies that claim. “I’ve been putting in the work,” Whitmer told The Intercept for the latest episode of Deconstructed. “What they just didn’t expect is that we got better and better at organizing and out-organizing them at every turn.” ...


And a look at the views of the Intelligencer's " favorite socialist proponent of ruthlessly poll-driven campaigning," and veteran of the 2012 Obama campaign, David Shor has to say of the impact of both Trump and the Leftward shift of the Democratic Party on the Republican Party, and what it might mean going forward. Here's an excerpt, but the whole interview is worth looking at:

David Shor on Why Trump Was Good for the GOP and How Dems Can Win in 2022
What are the most important things you’ve learned about the 2020 election between the last time we spoke and today?

What’s changed since November is that we now have individual-level vote-history data in a bunch of states. And we also have a lot more precinct-level data. And people have had more time to run surveys. So the picture has gotten clearer.

One high-level takeaway is that the 2020 electorate had a very similar partisan composition to the 2016 electorate. When the polls turned out to be wrong — and Trump turned out to be much stronger than they predicted — a lot of people concluded that turnout models must have been off: Trump must have inspired higher Republican turnout than expected. But that looks wrong. It really seems like the electorate was slightly more Democratic than it had been in 2016, largely due to demographic change (because there’s such a large partisan gap between younger and older voters, every four years the electorate gets something like 0.4 percent more Democratic just through generational churn). So Trump didn’t exceed expectations by inspiring higher-than-anticipated Republican turnout. He exceeded them mostly through persuasion. A lot of voters changed their minds between 2016 and 2020.

At the subgroup level, Democrats gained somewhere between half a percent to one percent among non-college whites and roughly 7 percent among white college graduates (which is kind of crazy). Our support among African Americans declined by something like one to 2 percent. And then Hispanic support dropped by 8 to 9 percent. The jury is still out on Asian Americans. We’re waiting on data from California before we say anything. But there’s evidence that there was something like a 5 percent decline in Asian American support for Democrats, likely with a lot of variance among subgroups. There were really big declines in Vietnamese areas, for example. Anyway, one implication of these shifts is that education polarization went up and racial polarization went down.

In other words, a voter’s level of educational attainment — whether they had a college degree — became more predictive of which party they voted for in 2020 than it had been in 2016, while a voter’s racial identity became less predictive?

Yeah. White voters as a whole trended toward the Democratic Party, and nonwhite voters trended away from us. So we’re now somewhere between 2004 and 2008 in terms of racial polarization. Which is interesting. I don’t think a lot of people expected Donald Trump’s GOP to have a much more diverse support base than Mitt Romney’s did in 2012. But that’s what happened.

Does the available data give us any insight into why? Do you have any sense what was behind the large rightward shift among Hispanic voters?

One important thing to know about the decline in Hispanic support for Democrats is that it was pretty broad. This isn’t just about Cubans in South Florida. It happened in New York and California and Arizona and Texas. Really, we saw large drops all over the country. But it was notably larger in some places than others. In the precinct-level data, one of the things that jumps out is that places where a lot of voters have Venezuelan or Colombian ancestry saw much larger swings to the GOP than basically anywhere else in the country. The Colombian and Venezuelan shifts were huge.

One of my favorite examples is Doral, which is a predominantly Venezuelan and Colombian neighborhood in South Florida. One precinct in that neighborhood went for Hillary Clinton by 40 points in 2016 and for Trump by ten points in 2020. One thing that makes Colombia and Venezuela different from much of Latin America is that socialism as a brand has a very specific, very high salience meaning in those countries. It’s associated with FARC paramilitaries in Colombia and the experience with President Maduro in Venezuela. So I think one natural inference is that the increased salience of socialism in 2020 — with the rise of AOC and the prominence of anti-socialist messaging from the GOP — had something to do with the shift among those groups.

As for the story with Hispanics overall, one thing that really comes out very clearly in survey data that we’ve done is that it really comes down to ideology. So when you look at self-reported ideology — just asking people, “Do you identify as liberal, moderate, or conservative” — you find that there aren’t very big racial divides. Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative. But white voters are polarized on ideology, while nonwhite voters haven’t been. Something like 80 percent of white conservatives vote for Republicans. But historically, Democrats have won nonwhite conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.

And so this leads to a question of why. Why did nonwhite voters start sorting more by ideology? And that’s a hard thing to know. But my organization, and our partner organizations, have done extensive post-election surveys of 2020 voters. And we looked specifically at those voters who switched from supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to Donald Trump in 2020 to see whether anything distinguishes this subgroup in terms of their policy opinions. What we found is that Clinton voters with conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety were far more likely to switch to Trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. And having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from Clinton to Trump than having conservative views on any other issue-set was.

This lines up pretty well with trends we saw during the campaign. In the summer, following the emergence of “defund the police” as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined. So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.

That fact that Trump actually succeeded in increasing the Republican vote's diversity has to have Democratic planners nervous as all get-out.
User avatar
By jimjam
#15160636
Doug64 wrote: the same day
Doug64 wrote: six days
Doug64 wrote:eleven days
Doug64 wrote: twenty-one days
Doug64 wrote:thirty-three days
Doug64 wrote: thirty-eight days
Doug64 wrote: forty-seven days


There you go folks ……. absolute proof that Fat Donald did a spectacular leadership job at preventing 500,000 Americans from dropping dead of an epidemic on his watch …… :lol:

“It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
"It’ll go away.”
“No, I’m not concerned at all."
“I don’t take responsibility at all.” my personal favorite :lol:
“I'm also hopeful to have Americans working again by that Easter - that beautiful Easter day.”
“Something how Dr. Fauci is revered by the LameStream Media as such a great professional, having done, they say, such an incredible job, yet he works for me and the Trump Administration, and I am in no way given any credit for my work. Gee, could this just be more Fake News?”

All quotes from Fatso who obviously wants to err on the side of safety when the lives of American losers are on the line. Lots more but I have other things to do.
Last edited by jimjam on 12 Mar 2021 01:56, edited 1 time in total.
#15160639
jimjam wrote:There you go folks ……. absolute proof that Fat Donald did a spectacular leadership job at preventing 500,000 Americans from dropping dead of an epidemic on his watch …… :lol:

“It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
"It’ll go away.”
“No, I’m not concerned at all."
“I don’t take responsibility at all.”
“I'm also hopeful to have Americans working again by that Easter - that beautiful Easter day.”
“Something how Dr. Fauci is revered by the LameStream Media as such a great professional, having done, they say, such an incredible job, yet he works for me and the Trump Administration, and I am in no way given any credit for my work. Gee, could this just be more Fake News?”

All quotes from Fatso who obviously wants to err on the side of safety when the lives of American losers are on the line. Lots more but I have other things to do.


@jimjam

Yeah, you wouldn't want anyone to start thinking that the former President is still renting head space from you, lol.

I'm not sure that any other American President would have done much different with the pandemic given our American culture of hyper-individualism and ''freedom''. Had I been in the Oval Office as President then, we'd be in a Dictatorship, with an government control over people's lives never seen here before, as long as the pandemic lasted and with many more lives saved I'm sure. But consider that had President Trump gone that route instead, he would have been savagely raked over the coals by liberals anyway. He didn't ideologically have it in him to be the Authoritarian of your fears (being on the Right-Libertarian/Objectivist end of the political spectrum), so it gave you the opportunity to paint him as weak and incompetent instead.

If anyone enables his return to the White House, it'll be this blind spot liberals have concerning him.

This thread is about the future, about 2024, not 2016-2020.
User avatar
By jimjam
#15160674
annatar1914 wrote:Yeah, you wouldn't want anyone to start thinking that the former President is still renting head space from you, lol.


That's weak. He is a miserable piece of shit who has done tremendous damage to America and on that basis I will talk about him any time I wish. BTW, just like Republican bullshit about trickle down economics , Fatso is late with his rent check :lol: .

annatar1914 wrote:This thread is about the future, about 2024, not 2016-2020.

I'm talking about Fat Donald who has virtually announced he is a candidate for 2024. I am simply outlining why we do not want that mental case to be around in 2024.

What's next? A thread about 2032 :lol:
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By JohnRawls
#15160679
Where is Trump ? After he was banned from twitter, there are relatively few news about him. What is he up to nowadays?
#15160685
@jimjam ;

That's weak. He is a miserable piece of shit who has done tremendous damage to America and on that basis I will talk about him any time I wish.


Is it? I almost believe that Trump has replaced Hitler in the Liberal consciousness as an embodiment of absolute evil from people who generally don't believe in absolute evil :lol: :roll:

Biden is President in 2021, not Donald Trump, hate to break that to you that the center of your political being is not the center of the actual political universe.

BTW, just like Republican bullshit about trickle down economics , Fatso is late with his rent check :lol:
.

And? What's you're point? All Capitalists at least pretend to believe in ''trickle down economics'' in order to justify and sell their economic system, to those they need to be busy working and consuming for that system. Doesn't matter whether you're Milton Friedman or Keynes on this.

I'm talking about Fat Donald who has virtually announced he is a candidate for 2024. I am simply outlining why we do not want that mental case to be around in 2024.


There's more than just ''we'' out there. But while I think he'd be nominated by the GOP in 2024, easily, I suspect that someone else will do all that and go on to win the White House in 2024 instead. Trump knew he wouldn't be allowed ultimately to remain President in 2020, and 2024 would be no different.

What's next? A thread about 2032 :lol:


It's bound to happen eventually...

But 2024 is important now as 2021 will begin the fund raising and the putting out of various feelers to test the waters, and we'll have a pretty good idea well before 2022 as to who will be running for President in 2024.
User avatar
By jimjam
#15160690
annatar1914 wrote:Liberal consciousness

Why the asinine obsession with having to label everyone as a "liberal" or a "conservative"? I would not insult your intelligence by assuming you are unable to think for yourself.

annatar1914 wrote: the center of your political being


What, pray tell, is the center of my political being :lol: . If I do in fact have a "political being" ( :?: ) it is simply "follow the money". Ignore the lies and bullshit of all politicians and gauge where the money is going. Generally speaking Democrats have done a helluva lot more for the quality of my life over the past century than Republicans. ie. social security and medicare vs trickle down bullshit from the Republicans.

I liked Ike and even thought Nixon was a competent leader ….. who unfortunately fucked up. How's that for a "liberal"?

Getting back "on topic" i'm for Princess Ivanka ………… she is obviously a deep thinker who will be looking out for the little guy …………..

Image

WTF is that thing on her head :eek: ?

Don't mind me annatar …. you are a bright guy and I respect you …… I'm just feeling my oats this evening. Doesn't happen often these days at age 76 :)
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By Rancid
#15160691
JohnRawls wrote:Where is Trump ? After he was banned from twitter, there are relatively few news about him. What is he up to nowadays?


He's telling Republicans to not donate to REpublicans, but to donate to him instead.
#15160696
@jimjam ,

Why the asinine obsession with having to label everyone as a "liberal" or a "conservative"? I would not insult your intelligence by assuming you are unable to think for yourself.


We all use this political shorthand to one degree or another these days (maybe that's why we come to no solutions, partly?), and your political stances are indeed similar to those of persons who self identify politically as ''Liberals''. I would prefer personally not to use these modernistic labels at all if and whenever possible myself, and I'm working on that.


What, pray tell, is the center of my political being :lol: . If I do in fact have a "political being" ( :?: ) it is simply "follow the money". Ignore the lies and bullshit of all politicians and gauge where the money is going. Generally speaking Democrats have done a helluva lot more for the quality of my life over the past century than Republicans. ie. social security and medicare vs trickle down bullshit from the Republicans.


FDR was wise to go with the populists of his youth during the great depression; William Jennings Bryan, Woodrow Wilson, etc.. But also respond to the movements of Long and Townsend and so forth. That day is over, if Wall Street can help it.

I liked Ike and even thought Nixon was a competent leader ….. who unfortunately fucked up. How's that for a "liberal"?


Nixon was a self described ''Keynesian'', also wise and competent in a worldly manner, Ike too, so no basic disagreements there. But the true ''Right'' in America is pretty much the Libertarian ideologues these days. Trump didn't appeal to them but to the Populists, but governed as a Libertarian ideologue.

Getting back "on topic" i'm for Princess Ivanka ………… she is obviously a deep thinker who will be looking out for the little guy …………..


Trump Jr. has a better shot at it.


WTF is that thing on her head :eek: ?


I don't know, I always preferred Sarafans and Kokoshniks but that's just me;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarafan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kokoshnik


Don't mind me annatar …. you are a bright guy and I respect you …… I'm just feeling my oats this evening. Doesn't happen often these days at age 76 :)


It's all good, and truthfully I respect you too, and I'm venturing a little bit into the ''feeling my oats'' territory as well. ;)
By Doug64
#15168666
Looking at the 2022 elections (so laying the groundwork for the 2024 election), Ken Spain takes a look at the 2022 board. The entire article is interesting, but the main point is this:

Since the end of World War II, a new president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats and four Senate seats in the midterm elections. In 2010, Republicans swept the congressional map and gained 63 House seats on their way to a majority, picking off numerous districts that would later come to define the Trump coalition. Today, the makeup of Congress is so closely divided that Republicans do not need a wave election to win back majorities. Unlike the last time, Republicans don’t need to make history. They just need to paint by numbers.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15168710
Doug64 wrote:Looking at the 2022 elections (so laying the groundwork for the 2024 election), Ken Spain takes a look at the 2022 board. The entire article is interesting, but the main point is this:

Good luck to them, 2022 will be the time when Biden fully beats Corona and his infrastructure plan is in motion. He is not likely to loose seats in 2022 nor 2024.
User avatar
By colliric
#15168714
JohnRawls wrote:Good luck to them, 2022 will be the time when Biden fully beats Corona and his infrastructure plan is in motion. He is not likely to loose seats in 2022 nor 2024.


He is going to lose seats. His proposed Capital Gains tax increase(he's literally proposing to double it) and increased threats of financial regulations cost alot of investors alot of money this week across a multitude of markets. He is dead in the water next year if he continues down this path.

He is going to lose seats, his presidency has been disastrous so far. He will seal his single term presidency with that psychotic taxation proposal. Significantly Increased taxes = Seats lost. People voted for Trump in major part because he promised lower taxes mate. Democrats just sealed their reputation as the party of significantly higher taxation.

A few more weeks as bad as this one is and he'll be gone. Deliberately announced the tax hike during Chauvin's Trial so people would be too distracted to realise Biden just wiped out all the post-Covid crash gains.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15168732
colliric wrote:He is going to lose seats. His proposed Capital Gains tax increase(he's literally proposing to double it) and increased threats of financial regulations cost alot of investors alot of money this week across a multitude of markets. He is dead in the water next year if he continues down this path.

He is going to lose seats, his presidency has been disastrous so far. He will seal his single term presidency with that psychotic taxation proposal. Significantly Increased taxes = Seats lost. People voted for Trump in major part because he promised lower taxes mate. Democrats just sealed their reputation as the party of significantly higher taxation.

A few more weeks as bad as this one is and he'll be gone. Deliberately announced the tax hike during Chauvin's Trial so people would be too distracted to realise Biden just wiped out all the post-Covid crash gains.


We shall see. As much as I see it, his plans are very beneficial for his re-election perspectives and the timing is also good. While there can be many things in the way and there is time between now and 2022 but by the looks of it, he will decimate the Republican party in 2022 by both action and luck. Even considering the fact that he is supposed to loose seats as historical data shows.

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