Why US will lose a war with China over Taiwan island - Page 5 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15170915
late wrote:When it's your money, your kids, and your country... you get a lot less eager to jump into a major war.

If you want to stand firm, contact your politicians, and tell them to dramatically expand your military. Tell them you want to invade China...


I can stand firm in PoFo as much as I like without requiring your permission to argue that standing firm for international law and the rights of people and foreign countries to be independent of tyranny is the only way to prevent war.

If you want to argue that Taiwan should simply accept CCP dictatorship because you 're too scared of China then speak for yourself.

You should note however that this is not the liberal or democratic thing to do.
#15170920
Rancid wrote:Indeed, it is clear that the rest of the world (not just the west, but the rest of the globe) should top walking the tightrope with China.

If there is war, it will be because of China's aggression, and the rest of the world (not just the US, but the rest of the world) will put the smack down on China and whatever shit hole gutter authoritarian governments China decides to aligns with. The world is not interested in the CCP vision.

That said, the CCP leadership are not stupid. Doubtful they would really go as far as to start a war. It is also very foolish of them to propagate such rhetoric about war. They are giving the world no choice but to take them seriously on their threats. CCP needs to shut the fuck up with the war mongering over Taiwan already. They might get the war they don't really want.

Bullies rely on fear. When you stand up to them, they tend to cower like bitches. CCP = bully = bitch.


It seems that the Chinese government is smart enough to avoid open conflict. And if they believe that the rest of the world will gang ip on them if they do go to war, they will probably continue to avoid war.

Instead, they will continue to take over the world through economic power.

The mistake the CCP is making, is that it is not USA Vs China. It's RoW (Rest of World) Vs China. the mistake they are making is how quickly the west can unify and mobilize against a common enemy. Especially is the enemy represents and existential threat. The mistake they are making is how quickly the rest of the world will get behind the west. CCP is like a bratty child playing with fire. They will get burned; they are over playing their hand.


I doubt most countries will care or get involved. Most of the third world will not want to get involved in this fight. It seems to be China versus most developed countries, instead of the rest of the world.
#15170926
Pants-of-dog wrote:It seems that the Chinese government is smart enough to avoid open conflict. And if they believe that the rest of the world will gang ip on them if they do go to war, they will probably continue to avoid war.

Instead, they will continue to take over the world through economic power.


Agree. However, as I stated. The mistake they are making is that they like to war monger. They constantly warmonger on Taiwan and other nations. Fly jets over Taiwan, talk about war, put out war propaganda videos, etc. etc. If they are going to talk it, they shouldn't be surprised when people take them seriously on it. All they are doing is stiring the pot. It's like Trumpster bullshit basically. CCP talks a lot of fucking trash.

I agree they don't want a war, but they are flirting with the idea constantly. Their rhetoric and actions being the evidence of this. It's this weird bitch ass bluffing they are doing. At some point, someone will call it, and it should be called. They are playing this stupid game to try and avoid blame in a scenario if a conflict does break out. Fuck them. It's all in bad faith.

It's total bullshit to harass with jets and warships, then sit back and claim they aren't instigating shit. They are playing with fire.

Pants-of-dog wrote:I doubt most countries will care or get involved. Most of the third world will not want to get involved in this fight. It seems to be China versus most developed countries, instead of the rest of the world.

You don't need every nation on earth to gang up on China anyway.
#15170939
noemon wrote:
I can stand firm in PoFo as much as I like without requiring your permission to argue that standing firm for international law and the rights of people and foreign countries to be independent of tyranny is the only way to prevent war.

If you want to argue that Taiwan should simply accept CCP dictatorship because you 're too scared of China then speak for yourself.

You should note however that this is not the liberal or democratic thing to do.



Depends on the situation, it could also dump you into a major war.

Not what I said, we've managed to keep China out of Taiwan, but then this isn't about reality.

Diplomatically, I try to avoid the extremes of Realpolitik, and naive moralism. There are very, very few people that have the skill and knowledge to handle a situation like that. Which is why previous presidents let the status quo stand.

Realistically, if China conquers Taiwan, there isn't much we can do about. That's why I mentioned invading China. We could blockade them with our navy, but that would set off a world wide economic crisis.

And if we went to war with China, they would sell off about a billion American dollars, that would crash the dollar.

This has more ways to go wrong than I even want to think about.
#15170941
late wrote:Depends on the situation, it could also dump you into a major war.

Not what I said, we've managed to keep China out of Taiwan, but then this isn't about reality.

Diplomatically, I try to avoid the extremes of Realpolitik, and naive moralism. There are very, very few people that have the skill and knowledge to handle a situation like that. Which is why previous presidents let the status quo stand.

Realistically, if China conquers Taiwan, there isn't much we can do about. That's why I mentioned invading China. We could blockade them with our navy, but that would set off a world wide economic crisis.

And if we went to war with China, they would sell off about a billion American dollars, that would crash the dollar.

This has more ways to go wrong than I even want to think about.



All China has to do is wait. Which is why the war mongering doesn't make sense.

The US and other advanced economies are actively trying to diversify their silicon supply chains away from Taiwan. Once that happens, the importance of Taiwan to the global supply chain diminishes; Once that happens, it's easier for China to move in because Taiwan's importance to the world is diminished. This would be the realpolitik way for the CCP to get what it wants, without war. This would also be the realpolitik way for the rest of the world to avoid open conflict with China.

If both sides play Taiwan as a pawn, both sides get what they want. Sounds cold, but again, that's realpolitiks.

Again, this is why the war mongering, the flying of jets, etc. etc. is so baffling.
#15170944
Rancid wrote:
All China has to do is wait. Which is why the war mongering doesn't make sense.

The US and other advanced economies are actively trying to diversify their silicon supply chains away from Taiwan. Once that happens, the importance of Taiwan to the global supply chain diminishes; Once that happens, it's easier for China to move in because Taiwan's importance to the world is diminished. This would be the realpolitik way for the CCP to get what it wants, without war. This would also be the realpolitik way for the rest of the world to avoid open conflict with China.

If both sides play Taiwan as a pawn, both sides get what they want. Sounds cold, but again, that's realpolitiks.

Again, this is why the war mongering, the flying of jets, etc. etc. is so baffling.



It's baffling to us.

But China is fairly new to the game, and has a huge chip on it's shoulder. There's a bunch of things we've done to piss them off, and the fun question is how far we can push them before they lose it.
#15170945
Pants-of-dog wrote:
At this point, I am wondering if the sabre rattling is for domestic consumption.



That's a great point, and is definitely part of it.

China is always worried about the government collapsing, it's happened before. They feel they are in a race with chaos, and that they are always just one step ahead. People that afraid make mistakes.
#15170946
late wrote:Depends on the situation, it could also dump you into a major war.

Not what I said, we've managed to keep China out of Taiwan, but then this isn't about reality.


This isn't about reality? :eh:

Reality is Taiwan is under the protection of the US, if China attacks, it is attacking the US and therefore NATO.

For those who wonder why China is doing this now, that is because China saw that nobody did anything for Hong Kong or Tibet or the Uyghurs so it assumed that the same will happen for Taiwan so she has eyed a window of opportunity to snatch Taiwan.

China is testing and determination is required to deter her from declaring war on the world.

Appeasement only emboldens dictators and brings the cause of war closer.
#15170947
Even IF USA looses and China manages to somehow still invade Taiwan, it still doesn't change anything. It will destroy the Chinese economy and I don't really think that China has enough manpower to face an island of 24 million people on their territory. That is not how it works unless you teach the Chinese population to swim from the mainland to Taiwan without ships and so on. Preferably while carrying ammunition and tanks on their back.
#15170960
JohnRawls wrote:Even IF USA looses and China manages to somehow still invade Taiwan, it still doesn't change anything. It will destroy the Chinese economy and I don't really think that China has enough manpower to face an island of 24 million people on their territory. That is not how it works unless you teach the Chinese population to swim from the mainland to Taiwan without ships and so on. Preferably while carrying ammunition and tanks on their back.

Firstly I'm not writing to disagree, as I'm not really sure, but this post (and thread) reminded me of this video I watched recently. The one point I found insightful that I hadn't thought much about was how much they say China forcing Taiwan to scramble jets all the time actually costs them. I forgot the exact term they used for this warfare style in the video. But a figure was quoted that China caused Taiwan to scramble jets some 2000 times last year, and at a cost of I want to say some $900 million.

This might be a solvable issue, not really an existential crisis sort of thing, but a burden. China I am pretty sure expects that in the long term Taiwan will be part of China. They might be right. Then again, they've been waiting since 1949.

My bias, as I've stated, seems to be for Taiwan to be independent. But, we are sorta all just spectators in this big game of great powers, is sort of how I tend to see these things.

#15170995
noemon wrote:The west will not lose either Taiwan or a war that China decides to undertake.

If China goes the way of Hitler, she will end up like Hitler's Germany.

China threatening World War to grab Taiwan simply takes the facade off her dictatorship's intentions, betrays her ultra-nationalistic fervour and unites the world against her.


Who does go the way of Hitler?
It is inappropriate to compare China and Hitler. Hitler attacked and destroyed other countries and the lives of innocent people, which the United States has also done since the end of World War II. Over the past 60 years, America has waged 93 aggressive wars, attacking other countries, killing millions of innocent people.
#15171015
Russianbear wrote:Definitely as a Muslim, you would have no problem spending some time in Guantanamo.
:)


To land in Guantanamo, there needs a big suspicion you are a member of Al Qaida. China has 1-3 million people in concentration camps. Nobody believed Ausschwitz was a killing factory until it got liberated by the glorious Red Army.
#15171036
Russianbear wrote:Who does go the way of Hitler?
It is inappropriate to compare China and Hitler. Hitler attacked and destroyed other countries and the lives of innocent people, which the United States has also done since the end of World War II. Over the past 60 years, America has waged 93 aggressive wars, attacking other countries, killing millions of innocent people.


What a childish response. Every time the US waged an unjust war, it was criticized.

Same goes for China.

China has no right to invade people who want nothing to do with the CCP.

Hitler like Ji was appeased by the west until he wasn't.

Ji and the CCP will go the way of Hitler and the Nazis if you carry on threatening other countries and the world as a whole.
#15171038
noemon wrote:What a childish response. Every time the US waged an unjust war, it was criticized.

Same goes for China.

China has no right to invade people who want nothing to do with the CCP.

Hitler like Ji was appeased by the west until he wasn't.

Ji and the CCP will go the way of Hitler and the Nazis if you carry on threatening other countries and the world as a whole.


Every US war was unjust.
VIETNAM for example

Image
#15171041
Crantag wrote:Firstly I'm not writing to disagree, as I'm not really sure, but this post (and thread) reminded me of this video I watched recently. The one point I found insightful that I hadn't thought much about was how much they say China forcing Taiwan to scramble jets all the time actually costs them. I forgot the exact term they used for this warfare style in the video. But a figure was quoted that China caused Taiwan to scramble jets some 2000 times last year, and at a cost of I want to say some $900 million.

This might be a solvable issue, not really an existential crisis sort of thing, but a burden. China I am pretty sure expects that in the long term Taiwan will be part of China. They might be right. Then again, they've been waiting since 1949.

My bias, as I've stated, seems to be for Taiwan to be independent. But, we are sorta all just spectators in this big game of great powers, is sort of how I tend to see these things.



That is correct. What China would need to do is a larger version of D-day but the conditions that made D-day possible can hardly be replicated. The allies failed 2-3 massive landings before D-day but history has forgotten that already.

The conditions for the allies to conduct D-day required:
1) Full naval supremacy
2) Full air supremacy
3) Full element of surprise
4) Bad decision making from the Nazis

Let us say that China achieves 1 by some miracle chance between itself and Taiwan. There is no way it can achieve 2 against the combined airforces and air defence of Taiwan + US and probably many others. Element of surprise is even more complicated since Taiwan, as large as it is, is not the French coast where landings are possible anywhere. Taiwan can redeploy forces pretty quickly where it needs to. And finally, I doubt that Taiwan won't counter attack with armor and artilery. This lesson has been learned already by most. Even if the Nazis counter attacked durring D-day with all of their armor on the later days then there was still a huge chance that disorganized landing forces wouldn't be able to hold their ground.

Fine lets say China manages all that by a supreme miracle from god. How do you push inland? You need logistics facilities and port infrastructure which in no real scenario China will get access to. Without supplies you can't push inland. Allies constructed underwater pipelines for water and Diesel to mainland France for that. They had to construct temporary ports that were washed away by storms and later capture port cities to have any semblance of supply. How do you hold the island of 24 million people without resorting to genocide of some sort? How do you keep supplying your troops when you are constantly being harassed, bombed and your transports sunk?
#15171042
Russianbear wrote:Every US war was unjust.
VIETNAM for example

Image


How was Korea unjust? How was WW2 unjust? Cold war? And so on...

America gets a lot of critisism here for its actions. Non the less, that doesn't excuse China from doing it also.
#15171052
JohnRawls wrote:
How was Korea unjust? How was WW2 unjust? Cold war? And so on...

America gets a lot of critisism here for its actions. Non the less, that doesn't excuse China from doing it also.



That is the strategy for the CCP. It's also how they justify the Uighur concentration camps.

Two wrongs don't make a right, but they are stupid enough to believe this.

Also, everything he posts is completely in bad faith given who his handlers are.
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