Major shares sell-off as Inflation fears grow! - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15172344
Steve_American wrote:I have posted the link twice, you can google it.


Wow that's kind of you. I can Google your evidence for you.

Besides, I am aware banks can create money from nothing. We have talked about that in great deal on PoFo numerous times. However banks do depend on a fractional reserve in order to protect against their liabilities and as such you maybe able to create money to lend but really you need to back that up somehow. When they don't or worse their assets turn toxic, banks go bust. I am assuming you have heard of Barings Bank? You are American so perhaps not. So perhaps I will just tell you Banks continue to go bust today in America despite QE since 2008 and explain to you again that MMT is more than just a money tree but a mechanism to circulate the economy that requires taxation in any case.
#15172362
Krystal and Saagar: DEBUNKING Inflation Scaremongering
"Rising" on The Hill, 9.2 min.

AFAIK, experts are fear mongering by comparing prices in Apr., 2020 with prices in Apr., 2021. There was this thing thru most of 2020 called the covid crisis. Can they really compare 1 month to 1 month a year ago and learn anything meaningful?


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Last edited by Steve_American on 14 May 2021 23:29, edited 1 time in total.
#15172364
Steve_American wrote:AFAIK, experts are fear mongering by comparing prices in Apr., 2020 with prices in Apr., 2021. There was this thing thru most of 2020 called the covid crisis. Can they really compare 1 month to 1 month a year ago and learn anything meaningful?


What are you talking about? If you are trying to find associations with our Covid bailout programs and lockdowns to current inflation trends that is EXACTLY what you would do.

Besides most experts say inflation is temporary, very much to your POV.
#15172385
Rugoz wrote:The US dollar can be created and destroyed at basically zero energy cost. It's also very stable relative to the price of goods and services in the US, just as the AUD is very stable relative to the price of goods and services in Australia. Even relative to each other, they are far more stable than Bitcoin.


No it's not. If the AUD is down in comparison to the USD, imported products like those bought on eBay, get more expensive as they change the AUD price and the USD postage price automatically to accommodate. It sucks. The AUD continually fluctuates from between .50c USD to $1USD like it suffers from bipolar disorder.

You're probably referring to the local products, but imported products get significantly affected by fluctuations in the AUD-USD conversion price, both for the importer and the customer. The reason it took decades for Amazon to finally setup a warehouse here and allow Australians to buy from the site.
#15172478
Rancid wrote:@B0ycey, the market has completely shrugged off the inflation report.

THE BUBBLE BACK! PUMP IT UP!


I'm glad you have made some money Rancid. That is what it is about and it couldn't happen to a nicer user. I wonder if next month that IF inflation exceeds 5% the bubble bursts again. I hate to the Mr Pessimistic here but even Black Thursday was followed up by the Rockefeller boost. It didn't stop the sell-off once confidence was lost though. And really that is where the market is at right now. There is still confidence in the market and that inflation can be contained. I hope it is. But I do see red flags I am afraid. But let's see what happens when the economy opens up rather than assume I say. I hear you no longer need to wear masks. Life is good for you Rancid.
#15172479
B0ycey wrote:
I'm glad you have made some money Rancid. That is what it is about and it couldn't happen to a nicer user. I wonder if next month that IF inflation exceeds 5% the bubble bursts again. I hate to the Mr Pessimistic here but even Black Thursday was followed up by the Rockefeller boost. It didn't stop the sell-off once confidence was lost though. And really that is where the market is at right now. There is still confidence in the market and that inflation can be contained. I hope it is. But I do see red flags I am afraid. But let's see what happens when the economy opens up rather than assume I say. I hear you no longer need to wear masks. Life is good for you Rancid.


I think your pessimism is valid.

I think the reason I'm so zen about the bubble popping (at least any time soon) is that my job is in good shape. Even if the bubble pops, I'm in an industry that will likely fare very very well in a downturn. To me, as long as I have the job, I'm ok. It's ok if my investments drop. Back in 2008 all of my shit when down massively, I just left it in, and didn't worry about it. Everything worked out very well. That's what I'll do here too, I have the time horizon.
#15172512
B0ycey wrote:What are you talking about? If you are trying to find associations with our Covid bailout programs and lockdowns to current inflation trends that is EXACTLY what you would do.

Besides most experts say inflation is temporary, very much to your POV.


Sorry about the link to the show not working. I fixed it.

Acocoations or correlations do not prove causality.
As I see the current stuation, it is not like a slow wide river flowing to the sea. It is mor like a mountain stream flowing fast over its rocky bottom, i.e. it is turbulent not laminar flow.

The link that you could not see before your reply because it wasn't working, make a few points. Among them =>
1] All the month to month of April in 2020 & 2021 showed is that prices returned to where they would have been if there had been no pandemic. That prices were depressed by events and then returned to the normal level. So, hardly anything to worry about.
. . . Perhaps, the reports were done by trolls who were knowingly twisting the narrative to scare monger.
2] That the 3% increase was mostly caused by a 10% increase for used cars, and they explained that this was caused by a shortage of new cars, caused by supply-chain and labor disruptions.

Also, Goldman Sacks said that they saw it as "no big deal".

Besides which, if inflation must be ongoing to even be considered inflation, then any 1 month data point proves nothing, and in this case indicates very little. You can/should watch out for more data, though.

.
#15172537
Steve_American wrote:Also, Goldman Sacks said that they saw it as "no big deal".

Besides which, if inflation must be ongoing to even be considered inflation, then any 1 month data point proves nothing, and in this case indicates very little. You can/should watch out for more data, though.


What I find ironic is that you keep on saying that MMT is king, that economists were always wrong in the past and then reference a bank run by MSc economists who say inflation is "No big deal".

Perhaps inflation will be no big deal. I agree that we need to watch out for more data. But given the last two months we have seen inflation increase beyond the FEDs 2% target, should we just ignore that because it doesn't fit in with your narrative? The truth of the matter is the FED, Goldman Sachs, Krugman or whoever you and Late want to bring into the discussion would have to say inflation is nothing to worry about because even if they have seen the same red flags as Buffett, to say otherwise would spook the market into inflation as everyone then buys which is bad for the market. Also, economists are all saying that inflation is nothing to worry about actually and there are a few decanting voices that say otherwise. Nonetheless I have noticed that nobody is putting their necks on the line saying for certainty there isn't going to be a double digit inflation figure and even Krugman, Lates Darling, says he is on the transitory side for why we are seeing inflation ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN GIVEN WE ARE IN UNCHARTED TERRITORY!

The simply matter is that we cannot compare the past to today given we have done something what we have never done before. We can only predict. However we can reference the pasts previous reactions to today if there are similarities. We know just dumping money into an economy increases inflation as that happened in Weimar. We know commodity prices increases inflation as that happened in the 70s. We know lack of supply increases prices as that happened in Zimbabwe. And we know high borrowing with a slow down of production will cause inflation as that happened in Argentina. These are all things that have happened and that to some extent are happening again today. Lockdowns stopped the economy and now it is a race to catch up. We also already know that prices have gone up and people will pay whatever given they current commodity boom. We also know that businesses will no doubt increase prices to regain their profits they lost last year. Again, another two indicators for inflation. Should I pretend these aren't indicators so you and Late can feel safe that you supported Lockdowns last year? Or should I bring them forward so we can have a little fun and discuss them on this forum?
#15172542
B0ycey wrote:What I find ironic is that you keep on saying that MMT is king, that economists were always wrong in the past and then reference a bank run by MSc economists who say inflation is "No big deal".

Perhaps inflation will be no big deal. I agree that we need to watch out for more data. But given the last two months we have seen inflation increase beyond the FEDs 2% target, should we just ignore that because it doesn't fit in with your narrative? The truth of the matter is the FED, Goldman Sachs, Krugman or whoever you and Late want to bring into the discussion would have to say inflation is nothing to worry about because even if they have seen the same red flags as Buffett, to say otherwise would spook the market into inflation as everyone then buys which is bad for the market. Also, economists are all saying that inflation is nothing to worry about actually and there are a few decanting voices that say otherwise. Nonetheless I have noticed that nobody is putting their necks on the line saying for certainty there isn't going to be a double digit inflation figure and even Krugman, Lates Darling, says he is on the transitory side for why we are seeing inflation ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN GIVEN WE ARE IN UNCHARTED TERRITORY!

The simply matter is that we cannot compare the past to today given we have done something what we have never done before. We can only predict. However we can reference the pasts previous reactions to today if there are similarities. We know just dumping money into an economy increases inflation as that happened in Weimar. We know commodity prices increases inflation as that happened in the 70s. We know lack of supply increases prices as that happened in Zimbabwe. And we know high borrowing with a slow down of production will cause inflation as that happened in Argentina. These are all things that have happened and that to some extent are happening again today. Lockdowns stopped the economy and now it is a race to catch up. We also already know that prices have gone up and people will pay whatever given they current commodity boom. We also know that businesses will no doubt increase prices to regain their profits they lost last year. Again, another two indicators for inflation. Should I pretend these aren't indicators so you and Late can feel safe that you supported Lockdowns last year? Or should I bring them forward so we can have a little fun and discuss them on this forum?


My MMTers have said that their annalysis of the situation is that inflation is not a worry now.

The "Rising" video I linked to is where the Goldman Sacks report came from. The people at Rising are not big on MMT yet.

Sir, in 1918 -1921 the Spanish flue didnt freeze the economy becaue medical science had no way to create a vaccine for it yet. All the people could do was to act normal and hope they didn't die from it. Therefore, that is what everyone did. The economy didn't freeze. But,alot of people died.

Now wth covid-19 things are different. Medical science had improved a lot. People expected miracles after penecilin during WWII. If the Gov. had had not imposed lockdowns, many people would have stayed home anyway. Resturants would have gone bankrupt anyway. The international supply disloctions likey would have happened anyway, because the US had no control over them. And moe peeople would have died. [Sir, you do know that the lockdowns saved lives, right? About 600K have died so far, and according to one report on "Rising" the true number is now over 900K, and it's still growing.]
. . . So, yes, I favored the lockdowns, and in fact I would have favored stronger ones. Here in Thailand where I retired the lockdowns were stronger, but were soon relaxed when the contact tracing put a lid on new infections.
. . . Of course now, the new strains are winning the fight and growing. Thailand has imposed new lockdown measures.
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Last edited by Steve_American on 15 May 2021 10:50, edited 1 time in total.
#15172544
Steve_American wrote:Sir, in 1918 -1921 the Spanish flue didnt freeze the economy becaue medical science had no way tocreate a vaccine for it yet. all the people could do was to act normal and hope they didn't die from it. Therefore that is what everyone did. The economy didn't freeze.


Well that, and the fact the first wave was straight up covered up because of WW1 and not terribly deadly, so people went about their business. Vaccines were developed for the secondary infections related to the flu.
#15172582
@Steve_American, you live in Thailand? You should catch up with Godstud.

As for lockdowns, this virus was selective in the sense you could have isolated those who didn't work and it was disproportionate in terms of deaths in that age category anyway. The Spanish Flu was the opposite age demographic but figures with this clusterfuck have never reached that level anyway. Some people will say Lockdowns saved lives. I just think it delayed (or prolonged) all this given a general flu season is over within a year (yes yes, not the flu blah blah blah). People were still using restaurants and whatnot despite the initial outbreak because at first it was obvious who was at risk. Then governments scared people half to death, closed everything up and now people have changed their habits. I guess we will never know what would have happened if we just ignored all this and put it down to a very bad flu season. But what I do know is those who are losing out the most today are the younger generations who happen to be the least effected by all this.
#15172657
Inflation isn't just a "fear" anymore. Biden is trying to end the pandemic in a panic because his policies required his money printing to not cause inflation, but it caused so much that his own people had to admit it. Now he's saying that masks and social distancing can end, like supposedly it's only for the "vaxxed" but the federal government has eschewed any kind of vaccine confirmation system, so it would open the floodgates.

What's funny about Biden trying to end the pandemic because the inflation and job growth numbers were so bad (inflation was 3x their estimate, job growth missed by 75% -- according to them) is that angry far leftists don't want to stop masking and making others do shit. Biden will never be able to pass his consecutive infrastructure bills if this shit doesn't start working but the left, having always supported the lockdowns for their own petty personal reasons, don't seem to want to let them end now, which means that Bidenonomics (aka money printer go brrr) will not start working better. Without that, they can't get the steady flow of trillion-dollar bills passed that they have promised to the very people who may be about to ruin it for them.
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