FED Change Interest Rate Timeliness due to INFLATION! - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

"It's the economy, stupid!"

Moderator: PoFo Economics & Capitalism Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please.
#15178683
ckaihatsu wrote:Hmmmm, interest rates have been at 1% or lower for *decades* now, so I really don't think that there's much *at stake*. We're not in an era of intense international dynamism, like the 20th century that you referenced.

Neither can there really be a 'major economic meltdown', because prevailing rates of industrial productivity are such that *deflation* is the norm, as the video indicates, rather than the *inflationary*, turbulent, competitive scenario that *you* have in mind.

The rich are making their money through *finance*, buttressed / funded mostly by government funds, as you noted.

Breathing a little easier now?


Let me say again, Straus & Howe predicted this is 1997, In 2 books "Generations" & "The Fourt Turning". Their theory is the human history goes in cycles of about 80 years duration. That is 4 generations. Because each generation raises the next, it influences how it turns out. Some oare over protected and some under protected, for example. We are in the mist of a 4th Turning, which means a time of massive change. The last example of the 4th Turning began in Oct. 1929 and ended in 1945 or '46. In 1929 the national mood was, "I've got mine, you need to get yours", in 1946 the mood was, "if we all work together, we can do anything (even send men to walk on the moon).
. . . This 4th Turning began sometime in 2008 ansdwill end sometime near 2028. In 2008 the national mood was again, "I've got mine, you need to get yours", in 2028 the mood will be more like, "if we all work together, we can do anything, (even reduce carbon emissions to almost zero).
. . . But, that is just in America. Straus abd Howe claim it now extends to the whole world.
. . . All 4th Turnings see massive changes and, in the past, always saw a big war. In the US they were the Revolutinary War, the Civil War, and WWII. In England before the American Colonies leaving the Empire, it was The Glorious Revolution of 1688.

In France the French Revolution was an example of a 4th Turning.

So yes, this is a time of troubles and massive changes.
.
#15182792
late wrote:
Tyler Durden is Zero Hedge, meaning you've jumped in bed with far Right libertarians. Alt-Right, pro Russian wackos...

As I just said a few posts above, I think I will panic manana...



Yeeeaaaahhhhhh, I don't think it works that way, late -- this is *economics*, and I'm merely indicating certain *empirical* tendencies and trajectories.

I'm seeing the likelihood of continued *deflation*, especially with the prospect / actuality of voluntarily *reduced* liquidity on the part of banks, per the video.
#15182842
ckaihatsu wrote:
I'm seeing the likelihood of continued *deflation*



I always like it when I get stuck in the middle between dueling fantasies.

We are in an inflationary period, and inflation is, at the moment, exceeding my expectations.

Seriously, Zero Hedge, you don't want to go there.
#15182850
late wrote:
I always like it when I get stuck in the middle between dueling fantasies.

We are in an inflationary period, and inflation is, at the moment, exceeding my expectations.

Seriously, Zero Hedge, you don't want to go there.



Well, here's the proof -- the federal funds rate, or 'interest rate', hasn't budged.

Yes, there's been an uptick in CPI, or consumer prices, but that's expected to diminish, if it hasn't already (lumber prices, etc.).
#15182861
ckaihatsu wrote:
Well, here's the proof -- the federal funds rate, or 'interest rate', hasn't budged.



That's not proof, it's not even supportive evidence.

"Although they may sound the same, deflation should not be confused with disinflation. Deflation is a decrease in general price levels throughout an economy, while disinflation is what happens when price inflation slows down temporarily. Deflation, which is the opposite of inflation, is mainly caused by shifts in supply and demand."

Demand is strong, wages are rising, that's not far from the opposite of deflation.

The Feds have been riding Wells Fargo like a cheap hooker because they deserve it.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032415/what-difference-between-deflation-and-disinflation.asp
#15182866
late wrote:
That's not proof, it's not even supportive evidence.

"Although they may sound the same, deflation should not be confused with disinflation. Deflation is a decrease in general price levels throughout an economy, while disinflation is what happens when price inflation slows down temporarily. Deflation, which is the opposite of inflation, is mainly caused by shifts in supply and demand."



There *has* been a gradual decline in pricing, as seen with the interest rate being near-zero (cost of money).


late wrote:
Demand is strong, wages are rising, that's not far from the opposite of deflation.



Okay, we'll see, then....


late wrote:
The Feds have been riding Wells Fargo like a cheap hooker because they deserve it.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032415/what-difference-between-deflation-and-disinflation.asp



I *have* heard of this 'alternative' theory, re: Wells Fargo, so you're probably correct on this one.
#15183240

Despite the Fed’s claim that the US economy is on the road to recovery there are significant contradictory signals. While inflation is rising, along with economic growth, the yields on Treasury bonds have been falling—an indication that financial markets consider growth could stall, if not develop into a recession.



https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/0 ... r-j29.html
#15183279
U.S. Treasuries are seen as a 'safe haven' for capital, so the long-term interest rate on them is *falling* since they're being bought-up in a *speculative* way, for higher *face* values.

I don't agree with the WSWS that CPI inflation is going to continue to trend upward, and the federal funds rate ('interest rate') is definitely *not* headed upward, and is currently at historic *lows*, near zero.
#15183538
I saw a graph about a week ago about the yeilds on US bonds on the secondary market. The poster said that these numbers were a very good indicator of the thinking about future inflation of people and corps who are buying bonds (incl. directly from the US Gov.).
The graph showed a slight increase in yeilds for a few weeks about 2 months ago, but since then they have been trending down.
So, their is no indication that inflation is about to shoot up.
.
#15183540
Steve_American wrote:
I saw a graph about a week ago about the yeilds on US bonds on the secondary market. The poster said that these numbers were a very good indicator of the thinking about future inflation of people and corps who are buying bonds (incl. directly from the US Gov.).
The graph showed a slight increase in yeilds for a few weeks about 2 months ago, but since then they have been trending down.


Steve_American wrote:
So, their is no indication that inflation is about to shoot up.
.



Thanks, that's considerate.

So who's buyin' -- ?


= D
#15183544
Steve_American wrote:
I'll defer that question to others who can find it easier than me.
I don't know who is buying US bonds on the secondary market.



Steve! Aren't you American, dude -- ?

I meant who's buying the next round of beers, 'cause I'm the only one around saying that the interest rate is *not* going to go hyperinflation, unlike what everyone else has been saying.

Breaking down? Oh please, how many times have we […]

Universal Basic Income is a scam.

Feel free to show that I am wrong by providing ev[…]

The Wuhan virus—how are we doing?

You can do it Trump supporters. I believe in you.[…]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2019_protes[…]