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Political issues in the People's Republic of China.

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#15183845
Fasces wrote:1) Then why cite it at a reason to explain asylum?

2) The global trend includes UK, USA, and Canada. Stop dodging the issue.

3) It could be anything from ease of access to foreign countries due to reduced barriers, increased finances to back such a move, Hong Kongers, and so on. You're the one making the argument its Xi, maybe make an argument and stop relying on others to disprove context-less shitposts.


1) It was the latest study I could find from 2015, re-read my post.

2) Show the statistics, global trend doesn't mean much without numbers. You don't show them because they are very small.

3) So your argument is "They wanted asylum but couldn't do it because China didn't let them" that is a pretty fucked up reason to be honest.

In general, it is funny that you try to force me to explain other reasons or why exactly Xi is the main reason. I told you already for the 10th time, Xi regime is oppressive so more asylum seekers are appearing. That is my reasoning. If you don't like it, then bring another hypothesis and prove it with numbers.
#15183878
JohnRawls wrote:1) It was the latest study I could find from 2015, re-read my post.


Then what does it have to do with your claim/argument? Xi Jinping wasn't President before 2015.

JohnRawls wrote:2) Show the statistics, global trend doesn't mean much without numbers. You don't show them because they are very small.


I did.

JohnRawls wrote:3) So your argument is


I am not making arguments. I am pointing out what is lacking in yours.

And no, it could just as easily be countries making it easier for Chinese citizens to claim asylum.

axios.com wrote:80% of Chinese defensive asylum claims — those made while already in deportation proceedings — were approved between 2012 and 2017, compared to 21% for Salvadorans and 12% for Mexicans, according to data collected from immigration courts by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University.

https://www.axios.com/china-political-asylum-immigration-one-child-policy-c45cee7f-8f52-43e6-b0d5-b69d82842ef0.html


asiatimes.com wrote:Given the complexity of the issue combined with the prevailing political climate and the insularity of those administering the determination procedure, it is not surprising that the recognition rates of Chinese asylum seekers in the US and in Canada stands at around 42%. This is in sharp contrast to Australia, where the rate is 3.4%. Given that the profiles of the respective asylum seekers is in essence the same, and that Australia has one of the world’s largest intakes of refugees in relation to its population, one can realistically assume that the discrepancy is due to Australia having a better sensitivity to conditions in the country of origin and thus a procedure more attuned to identifying bogus asylum claims.

The extent to which 150 million Chinese tourists represent a fair sampling of the overall Chinese population is a moot point. However, considering that the cost of travel abroad, especially as part of a tour group visiting a neighboring Asian country, is not by current Chinese standards exorbitant, one can realistically assume that the group represents a fair sampling of China’s up-and-coming middle class.

Conversely, what is not a moot point is that, under whatever angle it is looked upon, the fact that asylum requests by this group is statistically insignificant carries its own conclusion.

https://asiatimes.com/2019/07/refugees-from-china-few-and-far-between-2/


It reeks of geopolitical gamesmanship to me.

Could explain why the US, in 2020 and in the grip of the new cold war, accepts Chinese asylum claims at nearly 3 times the rate of any other country.

JohnRawls wrote:"They wanted asylum but couldn't do it because China didn't let them" that is a pretty fucked up reason to be honest.


Considering that most Chinese who request asylum do so in the United States (70%+); that they tend to request it after they arrive; and they arrive on expensive flights on tourist and business visas, it seems a reasonable argument to me. Clearly economic conditions are improving in China enough, also evidenced by the rise in global travellers and international students - this may just be a case of easier opportunity.

wionews wrote:In 2020, about 70% of them applied for asylum in the United States. Many people come on tourist or business visas and then apply for asylum.

https://www.wionews.com/world/the-great-exodus-from-china-under-xi-jinping-asylum-seekers-number-shoots-up-over-600000-401406


JohnRawls wrote:In general, it is funny that you try to force me to explain other reasons or why exactly Xi is the main reason.


That's generally what making an argument entails.

JohnRawls wrote:I told you already for the 10th time, Xi regime is oppressive so more asylum seekers are appearing.


That's not a reason - that's a hypothesis. You've provided zero evidence for that belief. You want it to be true, so you assume it is true.
#15183922
Fasces wrote:Then what does it have to do with your claim/argument? Xi Jinping wasn't President before 2015.



I did.



I am not making arguments. I am pointing out what is lacking in yours.

And no, it could just as easily be countries making it easier for Chinese citizens to claim asylum.





It reeks of geopolitical gamesmanship to me.

Could explain why the US, in 2020 and in the grip of the new cold war, accepts Chinese asylum claims at nearly 3 times the rate of any other country.



Considering that most Chinese who request asylum do so in the United States (70%+); that they tend to request it after they arrive; and they arrive on expensive flights on tourist and business visas, it seems a reasonable argument to me. Clearly economic conditions are improving in China enough, also evidenced by the rise in global travellers and international students - this may just be a case of easier opportunity.





That's generally what making an argument entails.



That's not a reason - that's a hypothesis. You've provided zero evidence for that belief. You want it to be true, so you assume it is true.


Listen, you didn't provide jack squat. You sent graphs of passangers, expats and so on without providing a real argument. So your arguments were not really arguments or good faith. It is pretty clear for anybody reading this topic.

You want examples of Xi repressivness? You have not been paying attention to HK, camps for Ughyurs and Mongols, crackdown on private business owners, crackdown on IT companies and so on? I mean that is blatantly obvious and has been for some time now. Not to mention the usual suspects of academia and artists one party line or it is gulag time for you.

Now if you have an argument that you want to provide how all that is not represive or how there is another reason for the 8x increase in asylum seekers from 15k to 110K+ then i am all ears.
#15183936
johnrawls wrote: Listen, you didn't provide jack squat. You sent graphs of passangers, expats and so on without providing a real argument. So your arguments were not really arguments or good faith. It is pretty clear for anybody reading this topic.


That's rich, considering your original post in this tangent and your deliberate disregard for any counterpoint made. :lol:

[quote=“johnrawls"] You want examples of Xi repressivness? [/quote]

No, for the five hundredth time, I want evidence that the increase in asylum numbers is linked to Jinping's "repressiveness." :lol:

johnrawls wrote: there is another reason for the 8x increase in asylum seekers from 15k to 110K+ then i am all ears.


I made several in my previous post. You haven't responded to Jack shit. You're completely transparent.
#15183941
Fasces wrote:That's rich, considering your original post in this tangent and your deliberate disregard for any counterpoint made. :lol:


No, for the five hundredth time, I want evidence that the increase in asylum numbers is linked to Jinping's "repressiveness." :lol:



I made several in my previous post. You haven't responded to Jack shit. You're completely transparent.


I mean, are you implying that crackdown on HK, Ugyur and Mongol camps, oppression of businessman and tech companies, arrests and disappearances of artists and academians are not the result of Xis rule when he holds all the top positions within China and the CCP? Are you joking or something or do you truly believe that the "King" is just and it is the bad advisors and local officials who are doing this? :|
#15183944
Fasces wrote:No, I am not denying Xi's regime. :roll:


So do you agree that Xi is responsible for that and at the very least all of this done with his consent? And that all of the things named are repressive actions?
#15183945
What does any of this have to do with increased asylum numbers. You have yet to provide evidence for your claim or respond to counter evidence provided here about alternate explanations. Are you at all capable of sticking to a topic? You're waffling on.
#15183949
Fasces wrote:What does any of this have to do with increased asylum numbers. You have yet to provide evidence for your claim or respond to counter evidence provided here about alternate explanations. Are you at all capable of sticking to a topic? You're waffling on.


Are you saying now that if people are repressed then they DO NOT flee the country? What is your point here?
#15183951
My first point is that you've made no argument just repeated the same assertion again and again and again. If it's so blatantly obvious that authoritarianism is a driver of asylum claims, and specifically that Xi drives asylum claims, then it should be easy to prove. You consider yourself a rationalist, so time to break out those reasoning skills.

My second point is that I'm increasingly coming to believe you incapable of doing so, Mr. "China did not fight in WW2". :roll:
#15183955
Fasces wrote:My first point is that you've made no argument just repeated the same assertion again and again and again. If it's so blatantly obvious that authoritarianism is a driver of asylum claims, then it should be easy to prove.

My second point is that I'm increasingly coming to believe you incapable of doing so, Mr. "China did not fight in WW2". :roll:


Authoritarianism by itself doesn't drive it, repressions do though when the regime dips in to it. You are trying to dispute basic things.

I can't believe you try to stick your argument to such a strawman.

I mean, sure here we go(Jews fleeing Germany):


Image

Or little closer to modern times(Do I need to spell out what happened in 2014?):

Image
#15183957
johnrawls wrote:Authoritarianism by itself doesn't drive it, repressions do though when the regime dips in to it. You are trying to dispute basic things.


You need to prove your claim. Most agree that there are two main drivers of refugees - civil instability and economic poverty. Neither of those are repression.

You can try to say correlation is causation all you want, as you ignore any counterclaims.

Asylum seekers from democratic Guatemala, El Salvador and India far outnumber those from Syria, Iran, or Eritrea. 'Repression' is increasing in North Korea, Hungary, Turkey, and Poland - have their asylum numbers seen similar movement? :roll:

I understand why the Jews fled Germany - they were the victim of civil instability during the 1930s. Are most of the Chinese asylum seekers ethnic Uyghers and victims of genocide? I don't understand the Russian example. How is the Crimean invasion an example of Russian repression of Russians? A more likely explanation is economic malaise and the ease of international travel, same as with China. Or was the Yeltsin era an era of unprecedented Russian repression? :lol:

But I'm not going to sit here as you move from topic to topic and avoid an actual discussion of what drives Chinese asylum figures. Here's the counter claims - address when you can be assed too. viewtopic.php?p=15183878#p15183878
Last edited by Fasces on 05 Aug 2021 01:53, edited 2 times in total.
#15183958
Fasces wrote:You need to prove your claim. Most agree that there are two main drivers of refugees - civil instability and economic poverty. Neither of those are repression.

You can try to say correlation is causation all you want, as you ignore any counterclaims.

I understand why the Jews fled Germany - they were the victim of civil instability during the 1930s. Are most of the Chinese asylum seekers ethnic Uyghers and victims of genocide? I don't understand the Russian example. How is the Crimean invasion an example of Russian repression of Russians? A more likely explanation is economic malaise and the ease of international travel, same as with China.

But I'm not going to sit here as you move from topic to topic and avoid an actual discussion of what drives Chinese asylum figures. Here's the counter claims - address when you can be assed too. viewtopic.php?p=15183878#p15183878


Putin started mass arrests of critiques of the regime, their harassment after the Crimean War. Before that, the regime was more tame in this regard. Now people are outright jailed, banned from political participation and harassed non-stop.

What? Marking Jews with stars of David, destroying their shops, targetting jews specifically and then finally putting them in to concentration camps is "Civil instability"? I am done here. :knife:
#15183961
This might be the single greatest performance of mental gymnastics I have witnessed on pofo, from a teacher no less if i remember correctly. My applause to you.

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