Petrol Stations closed in the UK-Military to be drafted to deliver fuel - Page 5 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15192492
Rugoz wrote:Either there is a shortage (relatively speaking) and wages will increase or there isn't.


If there are shortages, it will be at Christmas ffs. There seems to be confusion on what happened here. People are panic buying not due to lack of oil, Brexit, wages, inflation or as it happens lack of drivers (but it is an issue in supply to some extent and will be an issue at Christmas I would say), but because BoJo was stupid enough to tell everyone not to panic buy petrol and that is what ended up happening because why make a call if there isn't a threat goes into people's minds. Now everyone just wants to fill up. Give it a few weeks and this will become a non story. Once you have filled up, you can't really bulk buy again until it is used up.
#15192493
Rugoz wrote:Either there is a shortage (relatively speaking) and wages will increase or there isn't.


Ehhh no, there can be enough workers or barely enough workers and wages will significantly go up because companies compete for manpower. This is especially relevant for high skilled labour.

The difference is that we can fill the necessities with nice to haves being the vacancies. While you guys can't fill the necessities even anymore.

The problem with your view is that you don't understand that business will go bust under UK conditions on top of the amount of services provided and goods produced will either stagnate or reduce in worst cases. Bottom line, you are in deep shit even if you somehow think that it is good.

The most basic principle how to tackle this is to reduce currency price to make your services more competitive because there is no other way. So basically, in some time if this continues UK will have to devalue the pound which will make imports more pricier while devaluing your own wages. Once the UK government starts devaluing the pound then you will start loosing your finance sector or the operations will move in to the Euro or dollar domain.

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#15192498
Devalue the pound @JohnRawls?

You need to get your story straight. Devaluing the pound causes inflation at a greater rate which is what you claimed is the outcome here in any case.

The truth is, inflation is the most likely outcome of higher wages given the extra margin goes to the consumer. But if WAGES are higher than INFLATION, then the real term cost of living reduces meaning inflation then doesn't become a problem. If you are going to do your 'I told you so' bollocks at least understand basic economic.
#15192500
B0ycey wrote:Devalue the pound @JohnRawls?

You need to get your story straight. Devaluing the pound causes inflation at a greater rate which is what you claimed is the outcome here in any case.

The truth is, inflation is the most likely outcome of higher wages given the extra margin goes to the consumer. But if WAGES are higher than INFLATION, then the real term cost of living reduces meaning inflation then doesn't become a problem. If you are going to do your 'I told you so' bollocks at least understand basic economic.


Inflation doesn't necessarily mean that the pound gets devalued but it can be one of the causes. Now the inflation is happening because it is harder to produce goods and services due to manpower not being available or wages going up and so on. Next step is when UK government intentionally starts devaluing the pound to make the price of services artificially more competitive in the country and outside. This will make the exports more pricier which will drive inflation also up.
#15192502
Jesus, stop it with the YOU already. I'm not British :lol:.

JohnRawls wrote:Ehhh no, there can be enough workers or barely enough workers and wages will significantly go up because companies compete for manpower. This is especially relevant for high skilled labour.


There will only be "enough" workers because wages have settled at a higher level where demand is reduced. At least that's the medium-term outcome. It still starts with a shortage. This is really econ 101.

JohnRawls wrote:Once the UK government starts devaluing the pound then you will start loosing your finance sector or the operations will move in to the Euro or dollar domain.


How does that happen. Magic?
#15192503
JohnRawls wrote:Inflation doesn't necessarily mean that the pound gets devalued but it can be one of the causes. Now the inflation is happening because it is harder to produce goods and services due to manpower not being available or wages going up and so on. Next step is when UK government intentionally starts devaluing the pound to make the price of services artificially more competitive in the country and outside. This will make the exports more pricier which will drive inflation also up.


Inflation isn't a problem though John. Germany and the US have higher inflation in any case. The problem is we do not have enough drivers and that drives up wages in that sector... and only that sector. We also have an issue with factoriy workers as well I guess. So Brexit has caused this labor shortage and wage demand will increase inflation to some extent because of Brexit. But not massively. And if wages are above inflation, it doesn't effect cost of living in any case. I won't go as far as there is no economic impact given we are a service led economy and rising logistic costs effect exports. But not to the extent we need to devalue the fucking pound.
#15192507
Rugoz wrote:Jesus, stop it with the YOU already. I'm not British :lol:.



There will only be "enough" workers because wages have settled at a higher level where demand is reduced. At least that's the medium-term outcome. It still starts with a shortage. This is really econ 101.



How does that happen. Magic?


Yeah, well this topic is about the UK and you are defending the UKs position.

The Financial services sector won't want to use UK currency for operations if you are going to devalue it. If you do an operation for 1 billion Pounds and all of the sudden that pound is 5-10% cheaper then you are fucked. The reason financial services and bonds and so on are often bought and issued by other countries in Euros or Dollars is because they have a track record of being stable. The gold standard of currencies so to speak. This is also the reason why countries are fucked when Europe and US throw sanctions and don't allow countries to issue bonds or other financial instruments in Euros or Dollars.

The reason many countries joined the Euro is because it provides monetary stability even knowing the downsides. Investment is one of the most important engines of any modern economy.

Ask yourself, why would anyone want to lend UK money in pounds if they will know the currency will get devalued? Does that increase the interest payment perhaps? Or is it safer to issue in dollars or euros that you know won't get devalued?
#15192508
B0ycey wrote:Inflation isn't a problem though John. Germany and the US have higher inflation in any case. The problem is we do not have enough drivers and that drives up wages in that sector... and only that sector. We also have an issue with factoriy workers as well I guess. So Brexit has caused this labor shortage and wage demand will increase inflation to some extent because of Brexit. But not massively. And if wages are above inflation, it doesn't effect cost of living in any case. I won't go as far as there is no economic impact given we are a service led economy and rising logistic costs effect exports. But not to the extent we need to devalue the fucking pound.


Inflation by itself is not a problem. Intentional devaluation of currency to some degree is. And the UK government will be in such a situation after some time if nothing changes. I mean the alternative is decrease of output.
#15192514
JohnRawls wrote:Inflation by itself is not a problem. Intentional devaluation of currency to some degree is. And the UK government will be in such a situation after some time if nothing changes. I mean the alternative is decrease of output.


I would say this is a crisis for the rest of this year. Not for the foreseeable future. And any inflation impact we have will be more down to Covid. But where I am people are not queuing up at the petrol stations and now the focus is on filling up shelves for Christmas. A problem that should have been dealt with four months ago.
#15192517
B0ycey wrote:I would say this is a crisis for the rest of this year. Not for the foreseeable future. And any inflation impact we have will be more down to Covid. But where I am people are not queuing up at the petrol stations and now the focus is on filling up shelves for Christmas. A problem that should have been dealt with four months ago.


How can it be dealt with without immigration unless you invented cloning or somehow manage to make grown ups out of money?

UK problems are fundamental right now and the outcome of Brexit and yes Covid that piled on top of it. UK built up trust in many aspects of economic field over 30 years it was in the EU. Now UK exited the EU and blocked immigration while at the same time pissing of foreigners who worked in UK which are leaving or have left already.

Even if UK magically re-joins the EU then it doesn't mean the situation will be fixed because everyone will know UK is doing it out of necessity and not really because they are a trustworthy partner in any sense. So the people probably won't come back.

This is not a problem that can be fixed easily. The HGV shortage is just the tip of the iceberg. All sectors are under the same pressure right now in the UK.
#15192518
JohnRawls wrote:How can it be dealt with without immigration...


I haven't said the problem won't be addressed by immigration, although it could also be addressed by training as well. Remember, we have lots of jobs right now but we also have high unemployment due to Covid. You can just move people from one sector to another. Either way if we are still talking about this next year, then this government truly are bollocks. :hmm:
#15192519
B0ycey wrote:I haven't said the problem won't be addressed by immigration, although it could also be addressed by training as well. Remember, we have lots of jobs right now but we also have high unemployment due to Covid. You can just move people from one sector to another. Either way if we are still talking about this next year, then this government truly are bollocks. :hmm:


Training of who? UK unemployment is pretty low in the first place. Unemployment above 10% is too much. Unemployment below 5% is basically structural unemployment. Now many countries count their own way to hide the numbers or make them look good but this doesn't change the fact that a number between 10 to 5% is healthy while anything going outside of those boundaries will hurt your economic growth and prospects. Now UKs unemployment is 4.something percent right now according to different sources and you already have critical shortages right now while other countries with below 5% do not. That is simply the affect of Brexit and Covid pilled on top.

I mean it is weird but Brexit turned low unemployment in to a really bad thing. Germany has lower unemployment but it doesn't have critical labour shortage for example.
#15192520
JohnRawls wrote:Yeah, well this topic is about the UK and you are defending the UKs position.


What the UK's position? Brexit? Am I defending Brexit? I'm merely stating that one promise of the Brexiteers, namely higher wages due to less immigration, seems to be materializing at least for blue collar workers.

JohnRawls wrote:The Financial services sector won't want to use UK currency for operations if you are going to devalue it. If you do an operation for 1 billion Pounds and all of the sudden that pound is 5-10% cheaper then you are fucked. The reason financial services and bonds and so on are often bought and issued by other countries in Euros or Dollars is because they have a track record of being stable. The gold standard of currencies so to speak. This is also the reason why countries are fucked when Europe and US throw sanctions and don't allow countries to issue bonds or other financial instruments in Euros or Dollars.


"all of a sudden"?

The British pound is fairly stable relative to the other major currencies, or at least no less unstable than the others.

Devaluation is not a problem anyway as long as it's predictable.

Stability is one reason for buying USD, but access to the world's the biggest financial market is arguably the more important one.

The financial services sector is not tied to a particular currency, at least not to the extent its business is international.

JohnRawls wrote:The reason many countries joined the Euro is because it provides monetary stability even knowing the downsides. Investment is one of the most important engines of any modern economy.


I don't think they were fully aware of the downsides at the time. The euro was just as much a political project.

JohnRawls wrote:Ask yourself, why would anyone want to lend UK money in pounds if they will know the currency will get devalued? Does that increase the interest payment perhaps?


Ceteris paribus, yes.
#15192521
JohnRawls wrote:Training of who? UK unemployment is pretty low in the first place. Unemployment above 10% is too much. Unemployment below 5% is basically structural unemployment. Now many countries count their own way to hide the numbers or make them look good but this doesn't change the fact that a number between 10 to 5% is healthy while anything going outside of those boundaries will hurt your economic growth and prospects. Now UKs unemployment is 4.something percent right now according to different sources and you already have critical shortages right now while other countries with below 5% do not. That is simply the affect of Brexit and Covid pilled on top.

I mean it is weird but Brexit turned low unemployment in to a really bad thing. Germany has lower unemployment but it doesn't have critical labour shortage for example.


We still have Zombie jobs and Furlough John. Although we have lowish unemployment and perhaps better than was forecasted, that works out at 1.5 million people in any case. And what, we are 100,000 drivers short? I have always said unemployment benefits should be a training scheme rather than a freebie and I don't see why we can't give out free training courses for those seeking this type of work anyway. Also, HGV license enquiries in the UK have gone up, no doubt because of the wage increases, which again shows you that people are going to move to this line of work eventually. The problem is this isn't a short term fix. Which does mean immigration and desirable terms to entice them back to the UK. The solutions are there. You just need to think out of the box.
#15192534
B0ycey wrote:We still have Zombie jobs and Furlough John. Although we have lowish unemployment and perhaps better than was forecasted, that works out at 1.5 million people in any case. And what, we are 100,000 drivers short? I have always said unemployment benefits should be a training scheme rather than a freebie and I don't see why we can't give out free training courses for those seeking this type of work anyway. Also, HGV license enquiries in the UK have gone up, no doubt because of the wage increases, which again shows you that people are going to move to this line of work eventually. The problem is this isn't a short term fix. Which does mean immigration and desirable terms to entice them back to the UK. The solutions are there. You just need to think out of the box.


Because people don't want to drive trucks for a living? Or some jobs require far more than just a year of education? There are many reasons for structural unemployment but you are trying to treat it like regular one that can be fixed by just creating jobs. It doesn't work that way.
#15192536
JohnRawls wrote:Because people don't want to drive trucks for a living? Or some jobs require far more than just a year of education? There are many reasons for structural unemployment but you are trying to treat it like regular one that can be fixed by just creating jobs. It doesn't work that way.


But enquires are up. :?:

Not to mention licences were stopped because of Covid. Lets just see what happened this time next year. I have to say then because this Christmas will be known as a fuck up I am sure.

As for some jobs needing more than a years training, well you offer more than a years training. We are taking about training people up who otherwise are not doing anything. Although most of the jobs that are needed are not high skilled but merely immediate jobs as High skilled jobs will always be on the critical job list.
#15192539
The Guardian wrote:
End to freedom of movement behind UK fuel crisis, says Merkel’s likely successor


Olaf Scholz, poised to become next chancellor, wades into row over HGV driver shortage

Mon 27 Sep 2021 17.36 BST

The centre-left politician in pole position to replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor has pinpointed the decision to bring an end to freedom of movement with Europe after Brexit as the reason for the British petrol crisis.

Olaf Scholz, who is seeking to form a coalition government after the SPD emerged as the biggest party in Germany’s federal elections, said he hoped Boris Johnson would be able to deal with the consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU.

“The free movement of labour is part of the European Union, and we worked very hard to convince the British not to leave the union,” he said. “Now they decided different, and I hope that they will manage the problems coming from that, because I think it is constantly an important idea for all of us to make it happen that there will be good relations between the EU and the UK, but this is a problem to be solved.”

A number of EU member states, including Germany, have longstanding HGV driver shortages. The most heavily impacted countries are Poland (a shortage of 124,000 drivers), the UK (60,000-76,000) and Germany (45,000 to 60,000).

But unlike the UK, companies in the EU member states have been able to to rely on nationals from their neighbours to fill the gaps, and the problems of empty supermarket shelves and panic-buying at petrol station forecourts have been avoided.

A report from Transport Intelligence, a research company specialising in the logistics industry, has described the UK as entering a “Bermuda triangle of Brexit, pandemic and tax reforms/peak seasons, leading to a pressing driver shortage in the UK”.

In his comments on Monday morning, Scholz echoed Johnson’s explanation for the shortage of drivers in some European countries.

He said: “Let me just add it might have to do something with the question of wages … They want to know if it’s something very good for their whole life and if you understand that being a trucker is something which many people really like it to be, and you find not enough [people], this has something to do with working conditions and this has to be thought about.”

The accumulation of problems in the UK in recent weeks – from empty supermarket shelves, gas shortages, a lack of petrol on forecourts and the short supply of CO2 required for services ranging from the running of abattoirs to the production of fizzy drinks – has been seized on in the European media as being part of the Brexit fallout.

Libération, a French newspaper, ran a front page earlier in the week with an empty toilet paper roll bearing the words: “Brexit: Les lendemains qui déchantent”. (The tomorrows that failed to deliver).



According to Transport Intelligence, Brexit made it “legally impossible to recruit foreign HGV drivers”, while the Covid pandemic created a backlog of tests and led to about 15,000 eastern European drivers returning home, many of whom did not return.

Between 2010 to 2017, the number of EU nationals driving HGVs in the UK rose from 10,000 to 45,000, and fell to 42,000 in early 2020. From March to June 2020, the number of EU HGV drivers declined by another 15,000, to 25,000, recovering only slightly to 28,000 by the end of the year.

The government had also introduced tax changes that Transport Intelligence said had exacerbated the exodus from the UK by obliging all contractors with a turnover of £10m or 50 staff to pay full tax and national insurance on their drivers, starting in April 2021.

Michael Clover, the head of commercial development at Transport Intelligence, said: “It is a perfect storm really. We don’t have the lever of other international drivers to come in like most of Europe so capacity can be shuffled around, because we are no longer in the EU.

“Poland has for a long time been a net exporter of drivers but you can fill some of those gaps with drivers from Lithuania or Hungary or from Romania, Bulgaria and a few other EU states.”
#15192540
Why don't they assign people to do these jobs instead? Not wait for them to fill the vacancies but actually assign people to do them. For example, instead of offering very small and insufficient amounts for benefits they could instead offer a full living wage and training for those currently unemployed. Contrary to the popular misconception, the majority of people on benefits did not end up in such a situation because they don't want to work but because of bad luck. If you told them they must drive trucks I am sure many would take it.
#15192543
Political Interest wrote:Why don't they assign people to do these jobs instead? Not wait for them to fill the vacancies but actually assign people to do them. For example, instead of offering very small and insufficient amounts for benefits they could instead offer a full living wage and training for those currently unemployed. Contrary to the popular misconception, the majority of people on benefits did not end up in such a situation because they don't want to work but because of bad luck. If you told them they must drive trucks I am sure many would take it.


They probably would PI. Although it is the cost of training that would put people who are not working off I would say. There isn't a scheme to get the unemployed into the HGV trade and training costs a couple of thousand pound which is a lot of money upfront. This also isn't a unique problem to truck driving. There are plenty of jobs that need employment but people aren't trained up in it and most of which are intermediate skilled. Which then comes back to the government. If we have these jobs in demand and unemployment is at 5%, why don't we get these people who want to be trained up... Well trained up. :?:
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