Climategate - Why are Liberals so stupid - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Pollution, global warming, urbanisation etc.
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#15195339
B0ycey wrote:I wonder if the length of the vertical line is similar though? Which I might add still has time to grow.

From the same website you got the graph:
As a point of reference, pre-industrial CO2 levels were around 280 parts per million (ppm) and today, we stand near 420 ppm.

The most distant period in time for which we have estimated CO2 levels is around the Ordovician period, 500 million years ago. At the time, atmospheric CO2 concentration was at a whopping 3000 to 9000 ppm! The average temperature wasn’t much more than 10 degrees C above today’s, and those of you who have heard of the runaway hothouse Earth scenario may wonder why it didn’t happen then. Major factors were that the Sun was cooler, and the planet’s orbital cycles were different.
#15195341
Potemkin wrote:From the same website you got the graph:


It was a period of 1.5million years though, which is longer than Lates graph. I doubt it went so vertical, but without seeing a graph I don't know. What I do know is that is one fucking step vertical line now, which may grow longer.

I wonder if aliens visit Earth after we made ourselves extinct, that they realise we did this ourselves. Or will they assume it was mother nature.
#15195345
B0ycey wrote:It was a period of 1.5million years though, which is longer than Lates graph. I doubt it went so vertical, but without seeing a graph I don't know. What I do know is that is one fucking step vertical line now, which may grow longer.

I wonder if aliens visit Earth after we made ourselves extinct, that they realise we did this ourselves. Or will they assume it was mother nature.

Anthropogenic climate change won't drive us into extinction, @B0ycey. As I keep telling people, it's a self-correcting problem - as the climate worsens, our industrial civilisation will eventually collapse, which will end the source of the carbon dioxide, which will eventually return the climate back to 'normal' (i.e., a typical Ice Age interstadial). We'll be living in mud huts and wiping our asses with leaves, but we'll survive.
#15195346
Potemkin wrote:
Go farther back in time, and you'll find CO2 levels much higher than the current level. And I'm not denying that anthropogenic climate change is a threat to our way of life. It's the portrayal of nature as being somehow always benign and stable which I am challenging. Mother Nature has done stuff which puts our feeble efforts into the shade.



Go back further and things were very different.

You don't get to rewrite science...
#15195347
Potemkin wrote:Anthropogenic climate change won't drive us into extinction, @B0ycey. As I keep telling people, it's a self-correcting problem - as the climate worsens, our industrial civilisation will eventually collapse, which will end the source of the carbon dioxide, which will eventually return the climate back to 'normal' (i.e., a typical Ice Age interstadial). We'll be living in mud huts and wiping our asses with leaves, but we'll survive.


If only that was a solution. Do you know why August is hotter than June?

The truth is if we stop greenhouse gases now, we might stop the temperature rising too high in the future to keep society as we know it functioning. If we wait until society collapses, then what is likely going to happen is famine will wipe most of us out and summers will continue to get hotter despite that for a sustained period of time (no doubt at least a thousand years). I don't know if global warming will indeed make humans extinct or not, but I would bet a wager that wars in the future will be on resources such as fertile land and water and that may well wipe us out if global warming doesn't kill us. And Aliens looking down on us may well not understand that we really were that dumb.
#15195349
B0ycey wrote:If only that was a solution. Do you know why August is hotter than June?

The truth is if we stop greenhouse gases now, we might stop the temperature rising too high in the future to keep society as we know it functioning. If we wait until society collapses, then what is likely going to happen is famine will wipe most of us out and summers will continue to get hotter despite that for a sustained period of time (no doubt at least a thousand years). I don't know if global warming will indeed make humans extinct or not, but I would bet a wager that wars in the future will be on resources such as fertile land and water and that may well wipe us out if global warming doesn't kill us.

All of the above is very likely true. But that's a long way from facing extinction as a species, @B0ycey.

And Aliens looking down on us may well not understand that we really were that dumb.

I like to think of myself as a keen student of human history. As such, I feel pretty confident in assuring you that we really are that dumb. Before this is over, our industrial civilisation will have been pretty badly degraded. But we'll survive.
#15195354
Potemkin wrote:All of the above is very likely true. But that's a long way from facing extinction as a species, @B0ycey.


I like to think of myself as a keen student of human history. As such, I feel pretty confident in assuring you that we really are that dumb. Before this is over, our industrial civilisation will have been pretty badly degraded. But we'll survive.

Potemlin, please explain to me and us your understanding of the effects of a high "wet bulb temp." on the human body.
It is just 37 degrees C. IIRC.
So, why doesn't this frighten you?
#15195357
There's evidence that the 4th mass extinction event was caused by a volcano burning through a seem of coal and emitting huge quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere.
https://www.monbiot.com/2015/05/27/a-pr ... -violence/
#15195366
Steve_American wrote:Potemlin, please explain to me and us your understanding of the effects of a high "wet bulb temp." on the human body.
It is just 37 degrees C. IIRC.
So, why doesn't this frighten you?

Frighten me? The Earth has thrown worse things than that at the feeble life forms clinging to its surface, and will likely do so again. As for living in an environment which regularly reaches 37 degrees Celsius, people do that right now in some parts of Africa, Central America and the Middle East. In some parts of Australia, it can reach 50 degrees Celsius on occasion. That will get worse, of course, but most of the Earth's land surface will remain habitable.
#15195416
Potemkin wrote:Frighten me? The Earth has thrown worse things than that at the feeble life forms clinging to its surface, and will likely do so again. As for living in an environment which regularly reaches 37 degrees Celsius, people do that right now in some parts of Africa, Central America and the Middle East. In some parts of Australia, it can reach 50 degrees Celsius on occasion. That will get worse, of course, but most of the Earth's land surface will remain habitable.

Potemkin, until someone understands and groks the facts about and the significance of the wet bulb temperature and its effects on the human body their opinion on how much of the Earth's land surface will be habitable is without value. You didn't pickup and respond to the KEY 2 words in my above post and responded that humans in the dry center of Australia can survive temps of 50 deg. C. Therefore, you don't grok 'wet bulb temps', and therefore your opinion is without value.
. . . Oops, I did not remember correctly, it is not 37 deg , it is 35 deg. C.

So, at any location in the future, if the wet bulb temp reaches and holds at 35 deg. C for 6 hours. all the humans there will die, unless they are in a cave or still have functioning AC. This will hold true for 1000 years after civilization falls (so AC can't be replaced or maintained) before the CO2 naturally is removed from the air. [Or maybe they can swim in water at 34 deg. C for the 6+ hours.]

From the Wiki article linked below.
... The wet-bulb temperature is the lowest temperature that can be reached under current ambient conditions by the evaporation of water only.

Even heat-adapted people cannot carry out normal outdoor activities past a wet-bulb temperature of 32 °C (90 °F), equivalent to a heat index of 55 °C (130 °F). The theoretical limit to human survival for more than a few hours in the shade, even with unlimited water, is 35 °C (95 °F) – theoretically equivalent to a heat index of 70 °C (160 °F), though the heat index does not go that high.


Link to the Wiki article, which may include the above quote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_ ... %20%C2%B0F).

.
#15195423
Steve_American wrote:Potemkin, until someone understands and groks the facts about and the significance of the wet bulb temperature and its effects on the human body their opinion on how much of the Earth's land surface will be habitable is without value. You didn't pickup and respond to the KEY 2 words in my above post and responded that humans in the dry center of Australia can survive temps of 50 deg. C. Therefore, you don't grok 'wet bulb temps', and therefore your opinion is without value.
. . . Oops, I did not remember correctly, it is not 37 deg , it is 35 deg. C.

So, at any location in the future, if the wet bulb temp reaches and holds at 35 deg. C for 6 hours. all the humans there will die, unless they are in a cave or still have functioning AC. This will hold true for 1000 years after civilization falls (so AC can't be replaced or maintained) before the CO2 naturally is removed from the air. [Or maybe they can swim in water at 34 deg. C for the 6+ hours.]

From the Wiki article linked below.


Link to the Wiki article, which may include the above quote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_ ... %20%C2%B0F).

.

The wet bulb temperature is almost always much lower than the actual (dry bulb) temperature. Before most of the Earth passes the wet bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius, human industrial civilisation will long ago have collapsed, ending the release of excess CO2. As I said, we'll be living in mud huts and large parts of Africa, the Middle East and Central America will likely be uninhabitable, but we won't go extinct.
#15195439
Potemkin wrote:The wet bulb temperature is almost always much lower than the actual (dry bulb) temperature. Before most of the Earth passes the wet bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius, human industrial civilisation will long ago have collapsed, ending the release of excess CO2. As I said, we'll be living in mud huts and large parts of Africa, the Middle East and Central America will likely be uninhabitable, but we won't go extinct.

No, Potemkin, this is what you wrote.
That will get worse, of course, but most of the Earth's (current?) land surface will remain habitable.


Now you say, "large parts of Africa, the Middle East and Central America will likely be uninhabitable, ..."
To this I would add large part of the Amazon, etc. in S. America.

I added the 'current', because I doubt you were thinking that most of 1000 sq. miles still remaining land was all the land area you meant.

So, climate scientists tell us that after civilization stops putting CO2 into the air the temp will keep going up for a long time, because ---
1] There is a time lag between CO2 levels and the time when the Earth reaches equilibrium for that level of CO2.
2] The permat frost will continue to out-gas CO2 and methane for a very long time, maybe 100 or so years.
3] The ice free Arctic Ocean will be absorbing heat all summer long.
4] The global dimming effect that we produce by adding arrasols to the air will end, which will add about 1 more deg. C of temp increase.
5] Forests will die back or burn. Yes, they may regrow further north but this will take time. In the now, burning and rotting wood adds more CO2 to the air.
6] Other tipping points we/I don't know about yet.

Also, sea level will be raised a lot. I have seen estimates over 40 meters = 126 ft. This will reduce the land area for humans to live on a lot. [Those inland seas in Kansas were partly the result of there being no ice sheets when the dinosaurs lived. Also, Kansas is higher now, though. The point is still valid.]

So, it depends on just how hot it will get. IMHO, if there is 7 deg. C temp increase form now, humans will be extinct.

You may have given up all hope that we can avoid the collapse of civilization. I have not. I am willing to accept and to impose on all humans some limits to save civilization. You and frankly almost all people on Earth are not willing to go to the extremes necessary.
. . .This is why I have proposed rationing and limits on child bearing. No one else is following my lead. To my mind rationing and limiting children is not that much to give up to save humanity.
. . . Americans and the British subjects survived WWII. If the West and other advanced nations cut back to that level of consumption or maybe to a WWI level, and let the rest of the world improve their consumption some, it would be enough to save us. Of course green energy also needs to replace the of burning coal and oil, etc.

We might have the target of 1.5 children per couple. This would let every couple have 1 child (50-50, male v female), and then let each nation figure out how to spread out the other 1/2 child in a fair way for its morals. Some ideas are ---
1] Let the richer people buy the right, and use the money to pay the poor to raise their 1 child better.
2] Have a lottery.
3] Sell all those baby licences to other nations to get more money to invest in their nation.
4] Buy the right for more babies from the above nations.
5] Others?

The key thing is --- no exceptions for any reason. For example, religion must give way to survival.

I know, it is unlikely to happen. Almost all Americans would see their living standard drop, while almost all blacks in Africa would live see their living standard go up. And, Americans have been taught to be too selfish to accept this.

Like I said, I would die if by dying I could save humanity, but if all who accept ACC die, this leaves only those who don't accept that changes are necessary because of ACC. So, if all like me die it makes the situation worse, not better. If you don't grok my point, let me ask you, would you die to save America from the Liberals/Socialists, would you die to save America from the Trumpers, would you die for your religion, etc.? If you answered yes to any of those, then you should be able to grok my point.

.
#15195442
Steve_American wrote:Potemkin, until someone understands and groks the facts about and the significance of the wet bulb temperature and its effects on the human body their opinion on how much of the Earth's land surface will be habitable is without value.

What a silly load of nonsense. Wet bulb temperature is completely irrelevant to real-world human adaptation to heat.
So, at any location in the future, if the wet bulb temp reaches and holds at 35 deg. C for 6 hours. all the humans there will die, unless they are in a cave or still have functioning AC.

No, that's just more absurd garbage from you with no basis in fact. Wet bulb temperatures have reached and exceeded that level for most of the day countless times, and people survived just fine unless they were too dumb, elderly, disabled, etc. to cool themselves off. Immersing oneself in any substantial body of water for several minutes will do the trick, because it takes much longer than a day for such a water body to reach equilibrium temperature with the surrounding air, and once the sun sets, it starts cooling off again. And if you don't happen to live near a substantial body of water, you don't even need A/C, just a working city water supply: run a bath from the cold tap; take your clothes off; get in; problem solved.
This will hold true for 1000 years after civilization falls (so AC can't be replaced or maintained) before the CO2 naturally is removed from the air. [Or maybe they can swim in water at 34 deg. C for the 6+ hours.]

How is the temperature of any substantial water body ever going to get anywhere near 34C in the first place? You are talking rubbish. The surface temperature of Lake Victoria, which is pretty much on the equator, is only 25.4C, which will make you hypothermic in a few hours.

You don't seem able to grok the fact that just a few million years ago, global temperatures WERE several degrees higher, and our remote ancestors, who in terms of thermal regulation physiology were essentially just like us, survived just fine. The fact that you buy into this sort of nonsense makes me more confident than ever that there is absolutely no scientific basis whatever for all the absurd CO2 doomsaying.
#15195451
Steve_American wrote:I would die if by dying I could save humanity, but if all who accept ACC die, this leaves only those who don't accept that changes are necessary because of ACC. So, if all like me die it makes the situation worse, not better.

If large numbers of people committed suicide out of despair regarding ACC that would put pressure on society and the gov't to more aggressively curb emissions. Suicide is a popular form of protest especially in the form of self immolation. The Arab Spring began when a young man publicly set himself on fire and over a hundred Tibetans have burnt themselves in protest of Beijing's occupation.

Image
Self immolation of the Vietnamese monk Thích Quảng
#15195452
Truth To Power wrote:What a silly load of nonsense. Wet bulb temperature is completely irrelevant to real-world human adaptation to heat.

No, that's just more absurd garbage from you with no basis in fact. Wet bulb temperatures have reached and exceeded that level for most of the day countless times, and people survived just fine unless they were too dumb, elderly, disabled, etc. to cool themselves off. Immersing oneself in any substantial body of water for several minutes will do the trick, because it takes much longer than a day for such a water body to reach equilibrium temperature with the surrounding air, and once the sun sets, it starts cooling off again. And if you don't happen to live near a substantial body of water, you don't even need A/C, just a working city water supply: run a bath from the cold tap; take your clothes off; get in; problem solved.

How is the temperature of any substantial water body ever going to get anywhere near 34C in the first place? You are talking rubbish. The surface temperature of Lake Victoria, which is pretty much on the equator, is only 25.4C, which will make you hypothermic in a few hours.

You don't seem able to grok the fact that just a few million years ago, global temperatures WERE several degrees higher, and our remote ancestors, who in terms of thermal regulation physiology were essentially just like us, survived just fine. The fact that you buy into this sort of nonsense makes me more confident than ever that there is absolutely no scientific basis whatever for all the absurd CO2 doomsaying.

You just said this to me there, so I'll say it to you,"No, that's just more absurd garbage from you with no basis in fact."

I'm going to try to ignore you again.
You can stop being insulting.
#15195456
Steve_American wrote:No, Potemkin, this is what you wrote.


Now you say, "large parts of Africa, the Middle East and Central America will likely be uninhabitable, ..."
To this I would add large part of the Amazon, etc. in S. America.

I added the 'current', because I doubt you were thinking that most of 1000 sq. miles still remaining land was all the land area you meant.

So, climate scientists tell us that after civilization stops putting CO2 into the air the temp will keep going up for a long time, because ---
1] There is a time lag between CO2 levels and the time when the Earth reaches equilibrium for that level of CO2.
2] The permat frost will continue to out-gas CO2 and methane for a very long time, maybe 100 or so years.
3] The ice free Arctic Ocean will be absorbing heat all summer long.
4] The global dimming effect that we produce by adding arrasols to the air will end, which will add about 1 more deg. C of temp increase.
5] Forests will die back or burn. Yes, they may regrow further north but this will take time. In the now, burning and rotting wood adds more CO2 to the air.
6] Other tipping points we/I don't know about yet.

Also, sea level will be raised a lot. I have seen estimates over 40 meters = 126 ft. This will reduce the land area for humans to live on a lot. [Those inland seas in Kansas were partly the result of there being no ice sheets when the dinosaurs lived. Also, Kansas is higher now, though. The point is still valid.]

So, it depends on just how hot it will get. IMHO, if there is 7 deg. C temp increase form now, humans will be extinct.

You may have given up all hope that we can avoid the collapse of civilization. I have not. I am willing to accept and to impose on all humans some limits to save civilization. You and frankly almost all people on Earth are not willing to go to the extremes necessary.
. . .This is why I have proposed rationing and limits on child bearing. No one else is following my lead. To my mind rationing and limiting children is not that much to give up to save humanity.
. . . Americans and the British subjects survived WWII. If the West and other advanced nations cut back to that level of consumption or maybe to a WWI level, and let the rest of the world improve their consumption some, it would be enough to save us. Of course green energy also needs to replace the of burning coal and oil, etc.

We might have the target of 1.5 children per couple. This would let every couple have 1 child (50-50, male v female), and then let each nation figure out how to spread out the other 1/2 child in a fair way for its morals. Some ideas are ---
1] Let the richer people buy the right, and use the money to pay the poor to raise their 1 child better.
2] Have a lottery.
3] Sell all those baby licences to other nations to get more money to invest in their nation.
4] Buy the right for more babies from the above nations.
5] Others?

The key thing is --- no exceptions for any reason. For example, religion must give way to survival.

I know, it is unlikely to happen. Almost all Americans would see their living standard drop, while almost all blacks in Africa would live see their living standard go up. And, Americans have been taught to be too selfish to accept this.

Like I said, I would die if by dying I could save humanity, but if all who accept ACC die, this leaves only those who don't accept that changes are necessary because of ACC. So, if all like me die it makes the situation worse, not better. If you don't grok my point, let me ask you, would you die to save America from the Liberals/Socialists, would you die to save America from the Trumpers, would you die for your religion, etc.? If you answered yes to any of those, then you should be able to grok my point.

.

It's interesting how Christian eschatology resurfaces in new forms even in a supposedly secular society. Nietzsche may have been right to assert that "God is dead," but he forgot to mention that His ghost is still haunting us....
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