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#15201330
B0ycey wrote:
Over Taiwan, China and Russia will be lovebirds.

And yes Chinas navy is getting stronger. But it should be said that in terms of the South China Sea, they don't need their navy. They have Air supremacy. Do you think the US Air carriers can keep up with that?



Same dynamics.

For now, yes. Right now, Chinese jets are little more than target practise. Also, if you want to control a sea, you still need boats.
#15201332
late wrote:Same dynamics.

For now, yes. Right now, Chinese jets are little more than target practise. Also, if you want to control a sea, you still need boats.


They have boats. This is US arrogance from you. They are building a third Aircraft carrier in any case but it won't be needed in regards to Taiwan as their airforce is VERY strong.

But just so you are aware, the Chinese are currently executing bombing fake US air carriers in the desert. You either see the threat or you don't. But China will be ready if they decide to take Taiwan by force and if you think their airforce is weak you maybe in for a huge surprise. But lucky for you I think they would rather take Taiwan peacefully. Nonwtheless they do have one weakness that they are also rectifying. Not their airforce or their navy. Their landing carrier fleet.
#15201335
Rancid wrote:There's speculation that the tech crack down is connected to Xi trying to stomp out a growing contingent of people that are plotting against him.


I'm not aware of that. And like anyone of power, there is always going to be a snake in the grass somewhere I would have thought. But throughout history, China has always stamped out any sign of dissent and I think Xi is sleeping easier than most, especially in regards to the CCP. But this is merely conjecture on my part. We are after all talking about China. Reliable information is hard to come by.
#15201343
B0ycey wrote:
They have boats. This is US arrogance from you. They are building a third Aircraft carrier in any case but it won't be needed in regards to Taiwan as their airforce is VERY strong.

But just so you are aware, the Chinese are currently executing bombing fake US air carriers in the desert. You either see the threat or you don't. But China will be ready if they decide to take Taiwan by force and if you think their airforce is weak you maybe in for a huge surprise. But lucky for you I think they would rather take Taiwan peacefully. Nonwtheless they do have one weakness that they are also rectifying. Not their airforce or their navy. Their landing carrier fleet.



It's not arrogance.

So let's make this simpler. Taiwan hasn't been invaded largely because China has had other priorities.

Second, they know they can win without an invasion. They need that if they don't want see the crucial businesses there destroyed. (not by them)

Third, they are still a 3rd rate navy, and air force. They want to use numbers to overwhelm American defenses, but you can expect that to be countered with more ships that serve in a defensive capacity.

Fourth, they are in a race to avoid another collapse into warlordism. That will make them cautious. They are also in a race with the things, like water, that could make them collapse.

Fifth, there is the effect this would have on their diplomatic efforts, which are already in trouble.
#15201346
late wrote:It's not arrogance.


Of course it is. China aren't a second tier military force. They might not spend as much as America on defence, but they spend enough to defeat you in China. You didn't even defeat the Taliban ffs.

So let's make this simpler. Taiwan hasn't been invaded largely because China has had other priorities.


Ohhhh, let's be clear here. Taiwan is one of, if not the top priority for China. If they haven't invaded yet it is because they have a strategy. It isn't just America who would prefer a peaceful transfer of power.

Second, they know they can win without an invasion. They need that if they don't want see the crucial businesses there destroyed. (not by them)


Sure. It maybe possible. But not if their remains talk of independence. Although you have to be naive if you think business or trade is what is preventing China from invading Taiwan right now.

Third, they are still a 3rd rate navy, and air force. They want to use numbers to overwhelm American defenses, but you can expect that to be countered with more ships that serve in a defensive capacity.


Well this is just wrong and frankly wishful thinking. Its navy is numerically greater than yours and it in newer. Their airforce is also significantly greater than your air carrier capacity. And they have air supremacy, logistics and resources without having to cross the largest ocean on the planet. Do you think your Navy can reach Taiwan in stealth? You'll be sunk by this so called second rate airforce before they even reach Asia. Also, there is no surrender for China. Kamikaze. I wonder if the Americans will offer their lives for Taiwan no question. I doubt it.

Fourth, they are in a race to avoid another collapse into warlordism. That will make them cautious. They are also in a race with the things, like water, that could make them collapse.


They seem to be coping now. Why expect things to change in a very short war.

Fifth, there is the effect this would have on their diplomatic efforts, which are already in trouble.


Wake up. China haven't been sleeping. They are already building up their diplomatic relationships with everyone. The US said they are pulling their diplomats out of the Beijing games and nobody has followed suit FYI. China are already the goto nation once your nation has been ostracised by America. So it is America who are losing friends. You may have them with the UK, but you haven't really got many in the EU since Trump, Latin America hate you and apart from Saudi Arabia and Israel, you haven't many friends in the ME either.

China won't compromise on Taiwan. Or they will if it includes unification whether it means losing friends or not. But my instinct is that it will be America, not China who will lose them if they ask nations to help them fight China.
#15201353
B0ycey wrote:
Of course it is. China aren't a second tier military force.


Ohhhh, let's be clear here. Taiwan is one of, if not the top priority for China. If they haven't invaded yet it is because they have a strategy. It isn't just America who would prefer a peaceful transfer of power.



Sure. It maybe possible. But not if their remains talk of independence. Although you have to be naive if you think business or trade is what is preventing China from invading Taiwan right now.



Well this is just wrong and frankly wishful thinking. Its navy is numerically greater than yours and it in newer. Their airforce is also significantly greater than your air carrier capacity. And they have air supremacy, logistics and resources without having to cross the largest ocean on the planet. Do you think your Navy can reach Taiwan in stealth? You'll be sunk by this so called second rate airforce before they even reach Asia. Also, there is no surrender for China. Kamikaze. I wonder if the Americans will offer their lives for Taiwan no question. I doubt it.



They seem to be coping now. Why expect things to change in a very short war.



Wake up. China haven't been sleeping. They are already building up their diplomatic relationships with everyone.



China won't compromise on Taiwan. Or they will if it includes unification whether it means losing friends or not. But my instinct is that it will be America, not China who will lose them if they ask nations to help them fight China.



What isn't 2nd tier is 3rd tier.

You are now saying what I said, and pretending it's something different. But I wouldn't say Taiwan is a top priority. They have multiple crises that are more important.

China had brilliant diplomacy. Xi blew it to hell.

While I deleted your babbling about friends, it's complicated. We do have less influence, but most countries are hardly interested in replacing us with China. A lot of countries are rethinking that relationship.

You seem eager for fighting to start. That simply isn't going to happen for a couple decades, and prob not then. China is not going to be in position to lose a major trading partner for a long time, maybe never.
#15201354
late wrote:What isn't 2nd tier is 3rd tier.

You are now saying what I said, and pretending it's something different. But I wouldn't say Taiwan is a top priority. They have multiple crises that are more important.

China had brilliant diplomacy. Xi blew it to hell.

While I deleted your babbling about friends, it's complicated. We do have less influence, but most countries are hardly interested in replacing us with China. A lot of countries are rethinking that relationship.

You seem eager for fighting to start. That simply isn't going to happen for a couple decades, and prob not then. China is not going to be in position to lose a major trading partner for a long time, maybe never.


Well Chinas defence capacity is actually Top Tier. So how are we saying the same things? I am saying China Navy and Airforce will withstand Americas attack and defeat you in China. You are saying they are using old Soviet technology and don't even have 'boats'. If you have changed your position that America have no chance in defending Taiwan, just say that. But please don't pretend that was your point all the time. A complete moron with only basic English can read what you have wrote about insulting Chinas defense capacity.

And no, China have brilliant Diplomacy. Bad Diplomacy is gunboat and that is American. China have their 'Belt and Road'. Perhaps nations would rather have better relationships with the West, but if that isn't possible they look for China. And again no on China needing America. China have been moving away from America. And if they invade Taiwan, which is I can assure you is a top priority for them, they will show you just how much they don't need you. But again they would rather take Taiwan peacefully. And we know that as they could take Taiwan tomorrow and you couldn't stop them.
#15201355
B0ycey wrote:Over Taiwan, China and Russia will be lovebirds. And yes Chinas navy is getting stronger. But it should be said that in terms of the South China Sea, they don't need their navy. They have Air supremacy. Do you think the US Air carriers can keep up with that?


Advantage for China: The US Navy is split between the Atlantic and Pacific theaters. Takes a while to move ships from one part of the globe to the other.

Lots of information here:

https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2 ... -FINAL.PDF
#15201356
B0ycey wrote:

Well Chinas defence capacity is actually Top Tier.

So how are we saying the same things? I am saying China Navy and Airforce will withstand Americas attack and defeat you in China.



Hardly.

You keep lusting for a war that simply isn't going to happen for the forseeable future.

But enjoy your fantasies..
#15201358
late wrote:Hardly.

You keep lusting for a war that simply isn't going to happen for the forseeable future.

But enjoy your fantasies..


It is you who is lusting for war by insisting the US can defend Taiwan. Besides it doesn't matter. If China invade Taiwan, which could be anytime but will be hastened by independence talk, the US will be put into a position and they will fold. As Anna has already said, America don't have a winning hand here. They either go into attack and lose or they don't and lose the Hemogeny. So rather than suffer humiliation they will enact sanctions the same way nothing happened to Russia over Crimea. So we won't see war because of MAD.
#15201359
B0ycey wrote:we know that as they could take Taiwan tomorrow and you couldn't stop them.


No, we couldn't. And that has global significance. As Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley testified recently:

"We’re witnessing one of the largest shifts in global geo-strategic power the world has witnessed.

"Today [China] has capabilities in space and cyber, land, sea, air, undersea, and they are clearly challenging us regionally. ... So we have a case here of a country that is becoming extraordinarily powerful, that wants to revise the international order to their advantage. That's going to be a real challenge over the coming years. In the next 10, 20 years. That's going to be really significant for the United States."

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5802 ... s-military




It's not just militarily, though, that they're extending their global power reach, it's economically, in many ways. For example, they've been very active in South America.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10982
#15201364
B0ycey wrote:
It is you who is lusting for war by insisting the US can defend Taiwan.



What I actually said was that American policy, for 30 or 40 years, has been that we wouldn't militarily defend Taiwan.

Just another part of your fantasy world, I guess.

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