Election 2024 Thread - Page 9 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By late
#15196947
Scamp wrote:
There is a reason the Administration is allowing the invasion at the border. Votes.



There is a reason you guys never stop lying.

You want an autocracy to bring back the good old days of apartheid and overt bigotry and poverty...
User avatar
By MadMonk
#15196954
It would seem that it is the fracture within the Democratic Party that is going to be their downfall. They have already compromised their economic agenda with slashing core provisions from their Build Better Act, caving to billionaire donars and pharmaceutical giants.

"You cannot protect pharmaceutical and fossil fuel industry donors and also reduce the price of medicine and solve the climate crisis."

The Outer Limits Of Corporate Politics

And then we have Joe Manchin, a coal fueled DINO with the heart of a Republican wanker.

Joe Manchin, America’s climate decider-in-chief, is a coal baron

Truly, this is American Democracy in action. This is what has been exported to thirld-world countries for decades, costing unmeasurable trillions of dollars and millions of lives.

Yankeee, go home, get fucked!
By B0ycey
#15196955
Interesting post @MadMonk. May I direct you to this article...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/30/capitalism-is-killing-the-planet-its-time-to-stop-buying-into-our-own-destruction

Although, it seems what you say rings true to America especially, there is a wiff that all governments around the world are slaves to their own downfall. Or the downfall of the planet in any case.
By Doug64
#15196986
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annatar1914 wrote:But... There's blood in the water, and opportunities for ambitious GOP politicians, so it's possible that they are actually planning on really winning from now on. This is what they are learning from President Trump.

I've seen Youngkin's strategy described as adopting Trumpist policies while ditching the Trump drama. It certainly worked for him, I'm sure there will be Republicans all over the country that will pick it up--along with outreach to minorities with policies they can agree with. And so far the primary Democratic response to the Republican sweep of statewide offices in Virginia--including the state's first Black woman elected lieutenant governor, and the state's first Hispanic elected to any statewide office--on White Supremacy. It'll be fun watching Democrats' heads explode as Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares become very popular in Republican circles.
#15196988
Doug64 wrote:Image
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I've seen Youngkin's strategy described as adopting Trumpist policies while ditching the Trump drama. It certainly worked for him, I'm sure there will be Republicans all over the country that will pick it up--along with outreach to minorities with policies they can agree with. And so far the primary Democratic response to the Republican sweep of statewide offices in Virginia--including the state's first Black woman elected lieutenant governor, and the state's first Hispanic elected to any statewide office--on White Supremacy. It'll be fun watching Democrats' heads explode as Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares become very popular in Republican circles.


@Doug64 ;

An aggressive outreach to white working class people, the ''deplorables''-while actually delivering on promises to them instead of the decades of neglect and assumption that they'll vote for them-would be a far more productive strategy for the GOP. But yes, ''Trumpism'' without Trump.
By Doug64
#15196990
@annatar1914, rephrase that as reaching out to the working class (a term I don't like, but we're stuck with it) without regard to race and I'd say you have the essence of Trumpism. Which, of course, is why minority support of Republicans has been rising and why Democrats are trying to blame it all on White Supremacy--it's their desperate attempt to restrict it to the White working class, because for them to win they have to keep minorities on the Democratic plantation.
#15196993
Doug64 wrote:Image
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I've seen Youngkin's strategy described as adopting Trumpist policies while ditching the Trump drama. It certainly worked for him, I'm sure there will be Republicans all over the country that will pick it up--along with outreach to minorities with policies they can agree with. And so far the primary Democratic response to the Republican sweep of statewide offices in Virginia--including the state's first Black woman elected lieutenant governor, and the state's first Hispanic elected to any statewide office--on White Supremacy. It'll be fun watching Democrats' heads explode as Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares become very popular in Republican circles.


The reason Democrats lost a bit is because Covid is not under control. Kinda unexpected that we are still trying to deal with it.

Although the general outlook for the next presidential is still the same. In case of Trump vs Biden then Biden wins easily even under the current circumstances. The problem is that things might get iffy if it is not Trump running against Biden. Then GOP might really have a chance again if the current pandemic situation continues well in to the next presidential cycle.

Senate and House are also quenstionable right now. Too hard to predict anything in that regard.
#15196995
Doug64 wrote:@annatar1914, rephrase that as reaching out to the working class (a term I don't like, but we're stuck with it) without regard to race and I'd say you have the essence of Trumpism. Which, of course, is why minority support of Republicans has been rising and why Democrats are trying to blame it all on White Supremacy--it's their desperate attempt to restrict it to the White working class, because for them to win they have to keep minorities on the Democratic plantation.


@Doug64 ;

It may be the 'essence of Trumpism', but as to whether it works that might be another story. I guess I am handicapping myself by not being able to translate my thinking on these matters, because I don't share either the founding fathers classical liberalism of the ''Enlightenment'' era, nor the delusional fake pandering of the modern liberal contingent.

Ethnos/Culture is nothing that a black man or any other man need be apologetic about as a national foundation for their social existence, and so if it makes more sense at this time to remain with white liberal Democrats to gain better concessions from them (instead of the GOP) in return for votes, then it is what it is. Trump does not understand this any better than most, which is to say he and the GOP are doubling down on a failed strategy, decades old . It's easier to build a society on a people rather than a population, which is a collection of peoples with varying and even antithetical interests.
By Doug64
#15197104
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It's official, in Virginia Republicans have taken control of the House of Delegates while in New Jersey CNN the Democratic leader of the Senate--the longest-serving Senate leader in state history--has been defeated by his truck driver Republican opponent.

JohnRawls wrote:The reason Democrats lost a bit is because Covid is not under control. Kinda unexpected that we are still trying to deal with it.

Although the general outlook for the next presidential is still the same. In case of Trump vs Biden then Biden wins easily even under the current circumstances. The problem is that things might get iffy if it is not Trump running against Biden. Then GOP might really have a chance again if the current pandemic situation continues well in to the next presidential cycle.

If one year is a long time, three years is a lifetime. We shall see. Personally, I have strong doubts that Biden will last that long.

Senate and House are also quenstionable right now. Too hard to predict anything in that regard.

If Biden's numbers are still (or again) this bad next November, the odds I've seen of the Republicans winning at least one net gain in the Senate is around 95%.

annatar1914 wrote:Trump does not understand this any better than most, which is to say he and the GOP are doubling down on a failed strategy, decades old . It's easier to build a society on a people rather than a population, which is a collection of peoples with varying and even antithetical interests.

That "failed strategy" won Trump one race and would have won him a second without extraordinary measures on the part of Democrats in state governments and the MSM(D).

And for an issue other than the recent elections, there's ranked choice voting in Utah local elections:

The upcoming election will be the first in Utah with widespread ranked choice voting, thanks in part to the Utah Legislature passing HB75, which expanded Utah’s ranked choice voting pilot program and gave cities the ability to opt in.

In 2018, former Gov. Gary Herbert signed HB135, which received almost no pushback from lawmakers and allows municipalities to launch pilot ranked choice voting and instant runoff programs.

Now, 23 Utah municipalities are piloting a ranked choice voting system.

There are 22 jurisdictions in the U.S. that used ranked choice voting in their most recent election, and 20 more are using it for the first time in November, according to the nonpartisan group FairVote.

That includes Alaska and Maine, where ranked choice voting is used for statewide and presidential elections, and Nevada, Kansas and Wyoming, where it was used for the 2020 presidential primary.

The group projects at least 50 jurisdictions will use ranked choice voting in either their next election or the one following.

Here’s how ranked choice voting works: The candidate who receives the majority of first-preference votes is declared the winner. However, if no one wins a majority, the candidate with the least first-preference votes is eliminated.

First-preference votes for the eliminated candidate are deemed null, the voters’ second-choice candidate is then elevated, and a new count is tallied. If a candidate receives a majority in the updated total, they are declared the winner. If there is no clear majority among the remaining candidates, the process is repeated until there is.

“It will be interesting to see, now that we’ve expanded the scope of that pilot program, to see how things go,” Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson told the Deseret News. “I think the jury is still out, there are definitely a lot of benefits for ranked choice voting for cities — it’s a cost savings if they don’t have to run a primary, and that can be a significant savings to a city’s budget and the taxpayer. But there are also some challenges and it will just be interesting to see what happens.”

The following cities are participating in ranked choice voting:

  • Salt Lake City
  • Draper
  • Sandy
  • South Salt Lake
  • Magna
  • Bluffdale
  • Lehi
  • Payson
  • Riverton
  • Springville
  • Vineyard
  • Goshen
  • Newton
  • Woodland Hills
  • Genola
  • Nibley City
  • Millcreek
  • Moab
  • River Heights
  • Cottonwood Heights
  • Elk Ridge
  • Midvale
  • Heber City
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By Drlee
#15197107
@JohnRawls The reason Democrats lost a bit is because Covid is not under control. Kinda unexpected that we are still trying to deal with it.


And this is the funny part. The republicans are why the pandemic is doing so poorly. So I ask you. Are they so diabolical that they would embrace their reckless antivaxx - no mask policies just to tank Biden? No. That is not it. But they have to be laughing their collective asses off that Biden is taking the hit anyway.

Although the general outlook for the next presidential is still the same. In case of Trump vs Biden then Biden wins easily even under the current circumstances. The problem is that things might get iffy if it is not Trump running against Biden. Then GOP might really have a chance again if the current pandemic situation continues well in to the next presidential cycle
.

I am not so sure Biden can beat Trump. I never thought I would say that but Biden is fucking up very badly. He is well and truly stuck. If he goes right(ish) the progressives will unfreeze Bernie again and not show up for the general election. If he pushes hard left he gets the progressives but there are just not enough of them. Will he get the black vote? Inflation is eating up their paychecks, the democrats have failed to protect their voting rights and Harris seems to have taken a day job or something. As I see it now, Trump just might win. He just flips back the seats he took in 16 and wins by a hair.

Mark Kelly in Arizona had become "Mark Who?" I was at his wedding and I can't tell you what he stands for. I can't remember the last time he sent me any kind of communication. Kristin Sinema, our resident whateversexual is grabbing all of the limelight by being the best little Arizona Republican ever. Its just that she won as a democrat.

And the Republicans continue to rack up successes in state legislatures. They are putting real resources into it and that is a very wise plan.

If I were to predict what will happen I think the Florida dictator DeSantis will get the nomination and will lose badly. He is unelectable because he is just such a dick. He thinks he can be like Trump but he lacks the charisma. :eek:

The abject loss in Afghanistan was a pivotal moment. Biden has not got a clue about what to do on the border and Harris I think has moved to Madagascar or something. Who knows where she is. He had the infrastructure bill passed but he seems to be holding out for some off-the-wall far left wish lists like mandatory cross-dressing or a save-the-guppy tax on thousandaires, whatever.

If the democrats could find a couple of testicles to borrow (AOC has some she could lend them) and get to ending the filibusterer, passing voting rights, or some other such novel ideas they would be way out in front.

Oh. Yea. Stop with the raising taxes on the middle classes (yes they are) and do something about the border even if it is wrong and they could still pull it out. As it stands right now I do not know a soul (myself included) who could clearly articulate what is in these bills, and frankly nobody who has any excitement for them.

Sigh. I think between now and 2024, Doug and I will be on the same side of the fence WRT to election strategy. Suffice it to say that the republicans are playing Biden like a cheap guitar. They are, wisely in my opinion, just sitting back and watching the Democrats freezing like a deer in the headlights.
#15197112
@Doug64, you said ;

That "failed strategy" won Trump one race and would have won him a second without extraordinary measures on the part of Democrats in state governments and the MSM(D).


No, it didn't nor would have made a difference. If anything it alienated his core electoral bloc (which is only partly Evangelical cultists). Trump won in 2016 because he promised things that white working class people in America, often blue collar white ethnic and conservative Roman Catholic Democrats and Independents turned off by Democrat and Republican politics as usual, responded to. Trump lost in 2020 because enough of those same voters in key districts stayed home while enough other people voted against Trump. His outreach in 2020 to minorities was a miserable failure while he took his base for granted. And enough of them felt alienated from him to make the difference.
By Doug64
#15197116
@annatar1914, that "miserable failure" of a minority outreach increased Trump's percentages in 2020 over 2016 from 8% to 12% for Blacks, from 28% to 32% for Hispanics, from 27% to 34% for Asians, and from 36% to 41% for Others. What Trump lost were Independent suburban Whites, especially suburban White women--not exactly his base. (Women in general, for that matter, IIRC his share of Black women was around 4% while Black men was almost 20%.)
#15197117
Doug64 wrote:@annatar1914, that "miserable failure" of a minority outreach increased Trump's percentages in 2020 over 2016 from 8% to 12% for Blacks, from 28% to 32% for Hispanics, from 27% to 34% for Asians, and from 36% to 41% for Others. What Trump lost were Independent suburban Whites, especially suburban White women--not exactly his base. (Women in general, for that matter, IIRC his share of Black women was around 4% while Black men was almost 20%.)


@Doug64 ;

Those minority percentages are a miserable failure, because they are of a numerical minority. Yes, Trump gained among people who constitute 13% of the American population.... But lost among Whites, the majority, alienated them. If he had simply stopped pandering to people who wouldn't and couldn't vote for him enough to matter, and actually did what he promised his voters in 2016 while handling the COVID-19 epidemic better (and crushed the rioting!), he'd still be President today, and would likely hand off the Presidency to an ideological if not literal successor in 2024.

But his Capitalism, which is his religion, blinded and destroyed him in 2020 to all this, despite his canny natural instincts and masterful understanding of neuro-linguistic programming. If he runs and wins in 2024, it will be because the Elites by then will need him as much as he has always needed them his entire business career.
By Doug64
#15197158
And some questions recently put to Likely Voters. Pay special attention to the Independents.

Are the upcoming gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia more about local issues or more a referendum on President Biden?

  • More about local issues 35%
  • A referendum on President Biden 36%
  • Not sure 30%

Republicans
  • More about local issues 33%
  • A referendum on President Biden 40%
  • Not sure 27%

Independents
  • More about local issues 32%
  • A referendum on President Biden 34%
  • Not sure 34%

Democrats
  • More about local issues 38%
  • A referendum on President Biden 33%
  • Not sure 29%

In your state, would it help or hurt political candidates if President Biden came to campaign for them? Or would it have no impact?

  • Help 13%
  • Hurt 57%
  • It would have no impact 22%
  • Not sure 8%

Republicans
  • Help 13%
  • Hurt 57%
  • It would have no impact 22%
  • Not sure 8%

Independents
  • Help 15%
  • Hurt 41%
  • It would have no impact 28%
  • Not sure 16%

Democrats
  • Help 51%
  • Hurt 23%
  • It would have no impact 18%
  • Not sure 8%

Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a member of Congress who has supported the president’s agenda? Or would that have no impact on your vote?

  • More likely 35%
  • Less likely 47%
  • It would have no impact 12%
  • Not sure 6%

Republicans
  • More likely 17%
  • Less likely 69%
  • It would have no impact 9%
  • Not sure 5%

Independents
  • More likely 20%
  • Less likely 51%
  • It would have no impact 20%
  • Not sure 9%

Democrats
  • More likely 63%
  • Less likely 23%
  • It would have no impact 10%
  • Not sure 4%
#15197454
If Trump wins again, which seems likely, it seems likely he'll win the GOP nomination. :eek: From fivethirtyeight:

By all appearances, former President Donald Trump is planning to run for president again in 2024. He is traveling the country holding rallies, staying involved in internal GOP politics and raising vast amounts of money. Reportedly, he was even on the verge of announcing his candidacy this past summer, but advisers talked him out of it to avoid subjecting him to restrictions on fundraising and TV appearances.

But if Trump does run, one thing is clear: The Republican nomination would likely be his for the taking. He remains extremely popular among Republicans.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 15-18 found Trump has an 86 percent favorable rating and just a 10 percent unfavorable rating among Republican adults. And he already dominates early polls of the 2024 Republican primary. A Morning Consult/Politico survey from Oct. 8-11 found that 47 percent of Republican voters would vote for Trump; no other candidate was above 13 percent. And while you should certainly take such an early primary poll with a grain of salt, if Trump is still polling that high come 2023, it actually bodes pretty well for his chances of becoming the nominee. Plus, given Trump’s strong influence within the GOP, few other Republican politicians would likely dare to run against him anyway.

A sizable majority of Republicans also actively want Trump to run again. By a 67 percent to 29 percent margin, Republican registered voters told Morning Consult/Politico that Trump should run again, including 51 percent who said he should “definitely” run. A HarrisX/The Hill poll from Oct. 13-14 similarly found that Republican registered voters supported a third consecutive Trump candidacy 77 percent to 23 percent, including 52 percent who “strongly” supported it. And Quinnipiac found that 78 percent of Republicans would like to see Trump run again, and only 16 percent would not.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a- ... ent-again/

Can't see Trump winning the general election if unless Biden/Dems really screw up by 2024.
By Doug64
#15197872
Unthinking Majority wrote:If Trump wins again, which seems likely, it seems likely he'll win the GOP nomination. :eek:

Can't see Trump winning the general election if unless Biden/Dems really screw up by 2024.

I think you mean "if Trump runs again, which seems likely, it seems likely he'll win the GOP nomination." I hope you're wrong, I'd like to have a chance to vote again for a major party candidate, but you're almost certainly right that Trump will run again--his ego won't permit anything else. But with states returning to their pre-pandemic voter integrity laws (or even better) and the horrible performance of the Biden administration* (I think Biden/Dems have already screwed up by the numbers, the question is whether they can acknowledge that and at least partially recover in time), I have to disagree with you about his chances. Certainly if the election were held now he'd win by a comfortable margin, maybe even a landslide. We might well be looking at the second time in US history that a president serves two nonconsecutive terms.
User avatar
By BlutoSays
#15201408
I'm to the right of Reagan and live in Northern Virginia. The election was close. Let's say 50/50.

Still, I saw signs for democrats all over people's lawns, but hardly any for republicans. Why was that?

I think you know the answer. People don't want to put themselves in harms way. That says a lot.


Is it still funny???


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