Election 2024 Thread - Page 10 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

Political issues and parties in the USA and Canada.

Moderator: PoFo North America Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15201516
Wait. You somehow believe that being a Republican in Virginia is a danger? :eh:

You think democrats are targeting gun-toting, 2nd Amendment types for violence? :lol:

You are out of your fucking mind!

Grow a pair. Own what you believe. Or just fade away gracefully and let the adults run the show.
#15201520
Can't this grifter and his 3 oldest kids just be imprisoned?
User avatar
By BlutoSays
#15201544
Drlee wrote:Wait. You somehow believe that being a Republican in Virginia is a danger? :eh:

You think democrats are targeting gun-toting, 2nd Amendment types for violence? :lol:

You are out of your fucking mind!

Grow a pair. Own what you believe. Or just fade away gracefully and let the adults run the show.



Democrats target anyone and everyone who doesn't agree with them for violence.


https://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-ju ... s-delusion

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... setting-p/

https://www.kptv.com/news/mayor-wheeler ... 21476.html

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2015/04/ ... o-do-that/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/who- ... l-practice

User avatar
By Drlee
#15201552
So you want to show as evidence that the big bad democrats are out to get you the dude who shot up the baseball game? :lol: A career criminal who lived out of his car and had nothing to do with the democratic party other than that he liked it?

You are suffering unreasonable fears. You are making shit up. Sadly with the collective IQ of the republican rank and file these days you will find many who believe you.

It is just a matter of time before the blood thirsty democrats come get 'ur guuuuns"...

I would hide if I were you. They are on your doorstep.

I get that you are trying the typical Republican gaslighting but as a lifelong Republican I can tell you that the least of my fears is that democrats coming after me.
By Doug64
#15201975
Ruy Teixeira posted an article on The Liberal Patriot on the dangers faced by Democrats when it comes to Hispanic voters (links in the article):

The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they don’t realize how big the shift is; and (2) they don’t realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition.

On the latter, consider that most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.

But consider further that, as the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19 percent vs. 12 percent for blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among this group will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future since their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.

It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That could—or should—provoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking.

Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democrats—it’s not as bad as you think, it’s worse. Here are ten points drawn from available data about the views and voting behavior of this population. Read ‘em and weep.

1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (two party vote).

2. In the same poll, Biden’s net approval rating among Hispanics was -12 (42 percent approval/54 percent disapproval), the latest in a string of poor approval ratings among Hispanics. Hispanics in the poll favor Republicans in Congress over Democrats on containing inflation and securing the border. They are strongly negative on the economy, with just 25 percent believing it is headed in the right direction, compared to 63 percent who believe it is headed in the wrong direction.

3. A recent 538 analysis of aggregated poll data shows that, while Biden has lost support among all racial groups in the last 9 months, the decline has been sharpest among Hispanics.

4. In Texas, perhaps the Democrats’ most prized target for their theory of the case, Biden’s ratings among Hispanics have been dreadful. A September Dallas Morning News poll had Biden's approval rating among Texas Hispanics at an anemic 35 percent vs. 54 percent disapproval--19 points underwater. His approval rating on handling immigration at the border was even worse--29 points underwater. The latter rating is similar to Biden’s rating on the same issue among Texas Hispanics in the more recent Texas Tribune poll.

5. In the hotly-contested 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, according to the AP-NORC VoteCast survey (more reliable than the highly flawed exit polls), Democrat Terry McAuliffe actually lost the Latino vote and also lost ground among black and “other race’ (chiefly Asian) voters. This deterioration of nonwhite support also can be seen in analysis of precinct-level results.

6. In the 2020 election, Hispanics, after four years of Trump, gave him substantially more support than they did in 2016. According to Catalist, in 2020 Latinos had an amazingly large 16 point margin shift toward Trump. Among Latinos, Cubans did have the largest shifts toward Trump (26 points), but those of Mexican origin also had a 12 point shift and even Puerto Ricans moved toward Trump by 18 points.

7. Latino shifts toward Trump were widely dispersed geographically. Hispanic shifts toward Trump were not confined to Florida (28 points) and Texas (18 points) but also included states like Wisconsin (20 points), Nevada (18 points), Pennsylvania (12 points), Arizona (10 points) and Georgia (8 points).

8. Pew validated voter data indicate particularly poor performance for Biden among working class (noncollege) Hispanics, with these voters giving Trump a remarkable 41 percent of their vote in 2020. A strong working class Hispanic shift is consistent with detailed precinct-level analysis of the 2020 vote in Hispanic (and Asian) neighborhoods released by the New York Times last December. These data assume special significance in light of the unusually heavy working class character of the Hispanic vote (around 80 percent).

9. You can even see the pro-Trump Hispanic shift in New York City. An excellent analysis by Matthew Thomas shows:

    Precincts where at least 50% of residents are Hispanic swung toward Trump by 18 points, with a quarter of voters now backing him for reelection. The shift was even more pronounced in precincts where at least 75% of residents are Hispanic, which had a swing of 25 points toward Trump. Out of all the ethnic enclaves in Queens, Hispanic areas showed the largest movement away from Democrats in 2020, a result consistent with national patterns.

10. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced the activism around racial issues that dominated so much of the political scene in 2020, particularly in the summer. This was a flawed assumption. The reality of the Hispanic population is that they are, broadly speaking, an overwhelmingly working class, economically progressive, socially moderate constituency that cares above all, about jobs, the economy and health care.

For example, in the post-election wave of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (VSG) panel survey, well over 70 percent of Hispanic voters rated jobs, the economy, health care and the coronavirus as issues that were “very important” to them. No other issues even came close to this level. Crime as an issue rated higher with these voters than immigration or racial equality, two issues that Democrats assumed would clear the path to big gains among Hispanic voters.

Consistent with this, Latino voters evinced little sympathy with the more radical demands that came to be associated with the Black Lives Matter movement. In VSG data, despite showing support for some specific policing reforms, Hispanics opposed defunding the police, decreasing the size of police forces and the scope of their work and reparations for the descendants of slaves by 2:1 or more. The findings about relatively positive Hispanic attitudes toward police have been confirmed by poll after poll, as concern about crime in their communities has spiked.

An important thing to remember about the Hispanic population is that they are heavily oriented toward upward mobility and see themselves as being able to benefit from available opportunities to attain that. Three-fifths of Latinos in the national exit poll said they believed life would be better for the next generation of Americans.

They are also patriotic. By well over 3:1, Hispanics in the VSG survey said they would rather be a citizen of the United States than any other country in the world and by 35 points said they were proud of the way American democracy works. These findings on patriotism are confirmed by results from the 2020 More in Common Identity and Belonging study, where the views of Hispanics contrasted starkly with the negative views of progressive activists.

Clearly, this constituency does not harbor particularly radical views on the nature of American society and its supposed intrinsic racism and white supremacy. They are instead a patriotic, upwardly mobile, working class group with quite practical and down to earth concerns. Democrats will either learn to focus on that or they will continue to lose ground among this vital group of voters.
By Doug64
#15201979
Image

Also, a year ago Ruy Teixeira posted an article on what the Democrats and Republicans need to do to maintain and grow their coalitions. Here's what he had to say about the Democratic coalition:

That said, the election results suggest some huge challenges for the Biden coalition going forward. Latinos are driving the growth of the nonwhite population in the country and, while still strongly Democratic as a whole in this election (63-35), that figure still represents a serious decline of Democratic support from 2016, particularly in Florida and Texas, but also in states like Arizona and Nevada.

Shoring up support among these voters is key to the future of the Biden coalition. The coalition also needs to retain the support it gained among both white college and noncollege voters and then make additional gains to insulate the coalition from populist backlash.

This will entail a Biden administration that cleaves closely to its implicit philosophy of progressive centrism and resists pressure to pursue unpopular causes. Above all, the administration must succeed in what it is surely its central task—containing the coronavirus and rebuilding the economy—by any means necessary. If that means priorities of the activist left must be deferred to accomplish this central task, Biden cannot hesitate to deliver the bad news.

As the early years of the Obama administration demonstrated, if voters do not see the main task as successfully accomplished, the potential for electoral backlash and coalitional fragmentation is vast. We can assume that skepticism about Biden’s ability to actually “build back better” is at least partially responsible for the decline in Latino support in 2020 and failure to gain even more support among white noncollege voters. Overcoming that skepticism can only come from effective governance which, in turn, could provide the basis for a dominant political role in the 2020’s.


How is that looking for the Democrats generally and the Biden administration* in particular? :D
User avatar
By Drlee
#15201985
IT looks terrible. As I have said, I fully expect 2022 to go very badly for the Dems. Why?

Because they turned their backs on their constituents. They are not fighting voter suppression. They are lukewarm on the environment. They are proposing raising taxes on the middle class.. The border is in a shambles. It is so bad that Biden has just re adopted Trump's stay in Mexico program. There are still kids in horrible conditions. Latino kids, lest we forget. Russia is going to take Ukraine and Biden will do nothing about it except some sanctions that do not interrupt the EU's petrol supplies. So nothing. China is bossing us around like a fish wife. There are stories of our military loosing its vaunted technological advantages. Still having school shootings. And worst of all, inflation (highest since 1984) is sucking the middle and working classes (yes now we have both) dry. Covid has killed 850,000 Americans and well may kill that many more. And Biden can't even motivate the country to get vaccinated or wear a mask to keep from killing grandma and the neighbor kid.

So you tell me, as a lifelong conservative Republican who jumped ship, or my wife as an independent why we should vote democrat. Trump was a disaster without a doubt. But seriously folks. Are we actually better off now? Tell me in what ways. I had much higher expectations of the Biden administration. They are making a bunch of noise but not doing much at all. Come on Joe. We believed in you. Time to take off the gloves. And FGS. Try not to balance your budget on the backs of small business. Do try.
#15201986
Drlee wrote:IT looks terrible. As I have said, I fully expect 2022 to go very badly for the Dems. Why?

Because they turned their backs on their constituents. They are not fighting voter suppression. They are lukewarm on the environment. They are proposing raising taxes on the middle class.. The border is in a shambles. It is so bad that Biden has just re adopted Trump's stay in Mexico program. There are still kids in horrible conditions. Latino kids, lest we forget. Russia is going to take Ukraine and Biden will do nothing about it except some sanctions that do not interrupt the EU's petrol supplies. So nothing. China is bossing us around like a fish wife. There are stories of our military loosing its vaunted technological advantages. Still having school shootings. And worst of all, inflation (highest since 1984) is sucking the middle and working classes (yes now we have both) dry. Covid has killed 850,000 Americans and well may kill that many more. And Biden can't even motivate the country to get vaccinated or wear a mask to keep from killing grandma and the neighbor kid.

So you tell me, as a lifelong conservative Republican who jumped ship, or my wife as an independent why we should vote democrat. Trump was a disaster without a doubt. But seriously folks. Are we actually better off now? Tell me in what ways. I had much higher expectations of the Biden administration. They are making a bunch of noise but not doing much at all. Come on Joe. We believed in you. Time to take off the gloves. And FGS. Try not to balance your budget on the backs of small business. Do try.

The problem is not which face happens to be smirking at you from the White House. The problem is the system itself. And no President can change that.
By Doug64
#15202030
@Potemkin, I have to disagree with you about the problem being the system itself. Not that I don’t have my own pet peeves about aspects of our current system (the current form of the filibuster being a big one), the truth is that when you have a healthy culture—a healthy sense of order—the system doesn’t matter as much as people think it does. When enough people of good will recognize there’s a problem, they are usually capable of working within (or around :D ) the system to accomplish what needs to be done. But what we have right now is not healthy.

A good deal of the problem is we are currently in a phase where we lack agreement on fundamentals. I’ve posted the quote a few times from the history of the US written by G.K. Chesterton’s brother, where he points out that in a democratic system of government the fundamentals are agreed upon, and differences between parties are tinkering around the edges—and that when there are fundamental disagreements, they don’t last long before one party or the other disappears or adjusts. Our first two parties were the Federalists and the Anti-Federalists, the latter vanished. The former quickly broke up unto Federalists and (eventually) Democrats, and the Federalists disappeared. It was the turn of the Democrats to schism, with the rise of the Whigs in a contest that the Democrats essentially won, but the Whigs adapted by focusing on side issues while recognizing the foundations by ignoring them. Then slavery destroyed the Whigs and broke the Democrats in half, and the Republicans rose.

I could go on for another century and a half, but I think that’s enough to illustrate the point. And at the moment we’re in another fight over fundamentals, where when one party takes power it sets out busily undoing everything the other party recently accomplished when it was in power. Trump did much of that to Obama, Biden has been doing that to Trump, whatever Republican sits in the White House in three years will likely do the same to Biden. Eventually a new consensus will be reached among the political elites, and things will settle down again.
By Rugoz
#15202037
I can tell what the problem is. People whine about inflation and yet they want full employment. They want to be humane towards immigrants but not the social problems can come along with it. They don't want to be a superpower and yet complain about being "bossed around by China". They want to eat the cake and have it too.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15202062
Doug64 wrote:@Potemkin, I have to disagree with you about the problem being the system itself. Not that I don’t have my own pet peeves about aspects of our current system (the current form of the filibuster being a big one), the truth is that when you have a healthy culture—a healthy sense of order—the system doesn’t matter as much as people think it does. When enough people of good will recognize there’s a problem, they are usually capable of working within (or around :D ) the system to accomplish what needs to be done. But what we have right now is not healthy.

A good deal of the problem is we are currently in a phase where we lack agreement on fundamentals. I’ve posted the quote a few times from the history of the US written by G.K. Chesterton’s brother, where he points out that in a democratic system of government the fundamentals are agreed upon, and differences between parties are tinkering around the edges—and that when there are fundamental disagreements, they don’t last long before one party or the other disappears or adjusts. Our first two parties were the Federalists and the Anti-Federalists, the latter vanished. The former quickly broke up unto Federalists and (eventually) Democrats, and the Federalists disappeared. It was the turn of the Democrats to schism, with the rise of the Whigs in a contest that the Democrats essentially won, but the Whigs adapted by focusing on side issues while recognizing the foundations by ignoring them. Then slavery destroyed the Whigs and broke the Democrats in half, and the Republicans rose.

I could go on for another century and a half, but I think that’s enough to illustrate the point. And at the moment we’re in another fight over fundamentals, where when one party takes power it sets out busily undoing everything the other party recently accomplished when it was in power. Trump did much of that to Obama, Biden has been doing that to Trump, whatever Republican sits in the White House in three years will likely do the same to Biden. Eventually a new consensus will be reached among the political elites, and things will settle down again.


Good post Doug,

I hope you are correct. History is on your side. I am though concerned about our currently being on the verge of breaking the SCOTUS. That could happen in one decision. The Texas abortion bill is the most perfidious assault on the judiciary in history.

Never the less. American's soul is under assault because we are assaulting the most fundamental concepts of our flavor of democracy. I don't know what the 20 somethings are thinking. I wish those here who are in that age group would let us know what they know about and what they want from our political system.
By Doug64
#15202079
Drlee wrote:Good post Doug,

I hope you are correct. History is on your side. I am though concerned about our currently being on the verge of breaking the SCOTUS. That could happen in one decision. The Texas abortion bill is the most perfidious assault on the judiciary in history.

I have no real problem with the substance of the Texas abortion law, but I do have a real problem with its enforcement mechanism--anything that allows a government to avoid taking responsibility for the effects of the laws it passes is to be looked upon with suspicion at best. But beyond that, I don't see it as any more problematic than Brown v. the Board of Education. It's long past time that the travesty that is Roe be overturned and the issue of abortion returned to where it (mostly) belongs, the states. That said, if come next June the Supreme Court does overturn Roe (as seems likely) it will certainly make a bunch of state races a lot more exciting than usual. Which, IMHO, is all to the good--the federal government has been involving itself in state affairs more than it should for decades, because too many have looked to Washington to solve their problems rather than their state governments.

Never the less. American's soul is under assault because we are assaulting the most fundamental concepts of our flavor of democracy. I don't know what the 20 somethings are thinking. I wish those here who are in that age group would let us know what they know about and what they want from our political system.

I can't say I speak for (or even understand, likely) how young people are thinking these days, but if I was part of the Left that currently dominates so much of the US I would be concerned. After all, young people can be rebellious, rejecting the status quo and the Establishment it supports ... and in our media, entertainment, news organizations, academia, and for a large part of the country's politics, the Left is the Establishment. :eek:
Last edited by Doug64 on 12 Dec 2021 03:14, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15202115
Drlee wrote:Good post Doug,

I hope you are correct. History is on your side. I am though concerned about our currently being on the verge of breaking the SCOTUS. That could happen in one decision. The Texas abortion bill is the most perfidious assault on the judiciary in history.

Never the less. American's soul is under assault because we are assaulting the most fundamental concepts of our flavor of democracy. I don't know what the 20 somethings are thinking. I wish those here who are in that age group would let us know what they know about and what they want from our political system.


@Doug64 is correct. Republican party is falling apart slowly but surely as I mentioned numerous times. While there is a chance that Democarts will fall apart but I just don't see it. It is a slow process though. While being rare, as doug mentioned, this is also nothing new to American politics. Does this mean that Democratic beliefs will be the foundation for the next consensus? Well, they will probably be the dominant party after a decade for a decade but it doesn't mean that everything will stabilise along their current ideas.
By Doug64
#15202124
@JohnRawls, actually, I'd say that if any party is likely to fragment and collapse, it would be the Democrats. They currently have the problem that the faction that seems to have the most energy and support of their elites--the Radical Left--lacks any kind of solid nationwide support among the lower and middle classes. The Radical Leftists are the ones driving working-class minorities into the Republicans' arms.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15202133
There is no "radical left" in the US. So few that they are not worth mentioning.

@Doug64

The Democratic party is a center right party. It is being run, as is the Republican Party, by oligarchs and corporate interests.

Can you name one "liberal" thing that Biden has done? The so-called infrastructure bill is a massive tax transfer from government to big business. The democrats have not protected Roe V. Wade. They have not passed voter rights. They have not passed health care or tax cuts for the poor. They have not done a thing on the environment except rejoining a mostly ineffective treaty pledged to do too little too late. They holding children on the border. They are returning asylum seekers to Mexico without a hearing by reestablishing a Trump program. They have made no move to control guns. They have done nothing about crime or inner cities at all. They have virtually turned their backs on the black people who put them in office.

So seriously Doug. What in the fuck are you talking about?
#15202140
Drlee wrote:IT looks terrible. As I have said, I fully expect 2022 to go very badly for the Dems. Why?

Because they turned their backs on their constituents. They are not fighting voter suppression. They are lukewarm on the environment. They are proposing raising taxes on the middle class.. The border is in a shambles. It is so bad that Biden has just re adopted Trump's stay in Mexico program. There are still kids in horrible conditions. Latino kids, lest we forget. Russia is going to take Ukraine and Biden will do nothing about it except some sanctions that do not interrupt the EU's petrol supplies. So nothing. China is bossing us around like a fish wife. There are stories of our military loosing its vaunted technological advantages. Still having school shootings. And worst of all, inflation (highest since 1984) is sucking the middle and working classes (yes now we have both) dry. Covid has killed 850,000 Americans and well may kill that many more. And Biden can't even motivate the country to get vaccinated or wear a mask to keep from killing grandma and the neighbor kid.

So you tell me, as a lifelong conservative Republican who jumped ship, or my wife as an independent why we should vote democrat. Trump was a disaster without a doubt. But seriously folks. Are we actually better off now? Tell me in what ways. I had much higher expectations of the Biden administration. They are making a bunch of noise but not doing much at all. Come on Joe. We believed in you. Time to take off the gloves. And FGS. Try not to balance your budget on the backs of small business. Do try.


Yeah I basically agree the Democrats are providing very few positive reasons to vote for them,

They need something more than NOT being Trump.

THE Democrats are s=trying to please everyone and avoid upsetting everyone which leads to very mealy mouth low impact, policies on the whole. The really struggle to define what they stand form.

The republicans have a simple message,. It;s wrong almost cartoonishly mustache twirling if it was not so appalling real, but provides many poeple with strong emotional reasons to support them.

They get rid of Biden best scenario for teh Dems he stands down in 2 years and they sort out a real platform.
User avatar
By BlutoSays
#15202331
Drlee wrote:There is no "radical left" in the US. So few that they are not worth mentioning.

@Doug64

The Democratic party is a center right party. It is being run, as is the Republican Party, by oligarchs and corporate interests.

Can you name one "liberal" thing that Biden has done? The so-called infrastructure bill is a massive tax transfer from government to big business. The democrats have not protected Roe V. Wade. They have not passed voter rights. They have not passed health care or tax cuts for the poor. They have not done a thing on the environment except rejoining a mostly ineffective treaty pledged to do too little too late. They holding children on the border. They are returning asylum seekers to Mexico without a hearing by reestablishing a Trump program. They have made no move to control guns. They have done nothing about crime or inner cities at all. They have virtually turned their backs on the black people who put them in office.

So seriously Doug. What in the fuck are you talking about?


I warned you what would happen if you smoked nutmeg.
By late
#15202332
BlutoSays wrote:
I warned you what would happen if you smoked nutmeg.



He's correct.

Bernie would be smack dab in the middle in Europe Not radical, not even Left.

Center/Left. Most of Europe did what he wants ages ago. And it works.



As many have pointed out, since the Koch cabal cranked up their super propaganda machine, the country has been dragged so far to the Right, we could get a dictator.

In the real world, anyway.. ever go there?
  • 1
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13

The Australian government fucked up big. However, […]

If you're a North American or Brit, feel-good […]

A much better question than whether free will e[…]

This boy is crazy. https://www.youtube.com/watc[…]